Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 9 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
Overpriced for Expectation: Ezekiel Elliott ($5400)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($8800), Bijan Robinson ($7400), Drake London ($6700), Kirk Cousins ($6400), Rico Dowdle ($6000), Darnell Mooney ($6000), Jalen Tolbert ($5100), Jake Ferguson ($5100), Tyler Allgeier ($4900), Kyle Pitts ($4900), Dalvin Cook ($4800), Falcons Defense ($2900),
Underpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($6300)
Lottery Ticket: Cowboys Defense ($2500)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Bills Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($7700), Tyreek Hill ($7300), James Cook ($7200), De’Von Achane ($6700), Tua Tagovailoa ($6200), Raheem Mostert ($6000), Khalil Shakir ($5900), Amari Cooper ($5800), Keon Coleman ($5400), Ray Davis ($5200), Ty Johnson ($5000), Dalton Kincaid ($5000), Jaylen Wright ($4500), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Waddle ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Dolphins Defense ($2500)
Must-Own: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals
Overpriced for Expectation: Bengals Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8600), Joe Burrow ($6900), Brock Bowers ($6000), Alexander Mattison ($5700), Jakobi Meyers ($5300), Gardner Minshew II ($4500), Zamir White ($4400), Tre Tucker ($4300), Ameer Abdullah ($4200), Raiders Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chase Brown ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Trayveon Williams ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerry Jeudy ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: J.K. Dobbins ($7000), Nick Chubb ($5800), Ladd McConkey ($5600), Jameis Winston ($5400), Justin Herbert ($5300), Jerome Ford ($4800), Joshua Palmer ($4600), Pierre Strong Jr. ($4500), Quentin Johnston ($4400), D’Onta Foreman ($4300), Cedric Tillman ($4300), Elijah Moore ($4200), Chargers Defense ($3300), Browns Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Kimani Vidal ($5300)
Must-Own: None
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
Overpriced for Expectation: Drake Maye ($5500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tony Pollard ($6800), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6300), Antonio Gibson ($5100), Jacoby Brissett ($5000), Tyjae Spears ($4700), Mason Rudolph ($4600), Will Levis ($4600), DeMario Douglas ($4400), Titans Defense ($3200), Patriots Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Julius Chestnut ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Overpriced for Expectation: Commanders Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jayden Daniels ($7500), Malik Nabers ($7500), Terry McLaurin ($7100), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6300), Devin Singletary ($6100), Wan’Dale Robinson ($5800), Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5500), Austin Ekeler ($5300), Daniel Jones ($5200), Darius Slayton ($4800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zach Ertz ($4300)
Lottery Ticket: Giants Defense ($2300)
Must-Own: None
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Overpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($3800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($7800), Chuba Hubbard ($6500), Chris Olave ($6100), Derek Carr ($5600), Miles Sanders ($4500), Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($4100), Panthers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Xavier Legette ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Bryce Young ($4400)
Must-Own: None
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Overpriced for Expectation: Diontae Johnson ($6300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8000), Zay Flowers ($7000), Javonte Williams ($6200), Bo Nix ($5900), Courtland Sutton ($5400), Justice Hill ($5200), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4700), Audric Estime ($4100), Isaiah Likely ($4100), Ravens Defense ($3500), Broncos Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mark Andrews ($4200)
Lottery Ticket: Rashod Bateman ($4200)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($8300)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($8200)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8100), Jalen Hurts ($7800), DeVonta Smith ($6800), Brian Thomas Jr. ($6600), Tank Bigsby ($6200), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5900), Trevor Lawrence ($5600), Evan Engram ($5300), D’Ernest Johnson ($4700), Kenneth Gainwell ($4200), Eagles Defense ($3100), Jaguars Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gabe Davis ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: Parker Washington ($3600)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals
Overpriced for Expectation: DJ Moore ($6500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6900), James Conner ($6600), D’Andre Swift ($6400), Caleb Williams ($6100), Keenan Allen ($5500), Rome Odunze ($4900), Michael Wilson ($4900), Trey Benson ($4600), Cole Kmet ($4400), Emari Demercado ($4100), Zay Jones ($4100), Bears Defense ($2800), Cardinals Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Trey McBride ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Roschon Johnson ($4900)
Must-Own: Kyler Murray ($6600)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Jacobs ($6900), Lions Defense ($3600),
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7900), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7600), Jordan Love ($7000), Jared Goff ($6500), David Montgomery ($6500), Jayden Reed ($6400), Romeo Doubs ($5700), Dontayvion Wicks ($5200), Christian Watson ($5000), Tucker Kraft ($4600), Packers Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Sam LaPorta ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Emanuel Wilson ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Overpriced for Expectation: Kyren Williams ($8000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($7700), Puka Nacua ($7200), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6200), Matthew Stafford ($5700), Tyler Lockett ($5600), Zach Charbonnet ($5400), Demarcus Robinson ($4800), Tutu Atwell ($4700), Jordan Whittington ($4500), Blake Corum ($4400), Rams Defense ($2800), Seahawks Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Geno Smith ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: AJ Barner ($2600)
Must-Own: Kenneth Walker III ($7300)
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Downs ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8700), Aaron Jones ($6800), Sam Darnold ($6200), Joe Flacco ($6000), Tyler Goodson ($5200), Jordan Addison ($5200), T.J. Hockenson ($5200), Trey Sermon ($4700), Alec Pierce ($4700), Ty Chandler ($4600), Cam Akers ($4500), Jalen Nailor ($4300), Vikings Defense ($3200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($5900),
Lottery Ticket: Colts Defense ($2600)
Must-Own: Jonathan Taylor ($7300)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs
Overpriced for Expectation: Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($6600), Kareem Hunt ($6500), Baker Mayfield ($6400), Xavier Worthy ($6300), Travis Kelce ($6300), Rachaad White ($5800), Bucky Irving ($5700), Samaje Perine ($4900), Sean Tucker ($4700), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4500), Sterling Shepard ($4100), Chiefs Defense ($3100), Buccaneers Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($5000), Cade Otton ($4500)
Lottery Ticket: Jalen McMillan ($4200)
Must-Own: None