Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 7 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Overpriced for Expectation: Kirk Cousins ($6300), Falcons Defense ($3100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kenneth Walker III ($7300), Bijan Robinson ($7100), Drake London ($6900), DK Metcalf ($6800), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5900), Darnell Mooney ($5600), Zach Charbonnet ($5300), Tyler Lockett ($5300), Tyler Allgeier ($5100), Kyle Pitts ($4500), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4400), Seahawks Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Geno Smith ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Noah Fant ($3500)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Ray Davis ($5200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($7500), James Cook ($7000), Tony Pollard ($6300), Khalil Shakir ($6000), Ty Johnson ($5700), Calvin Ridley ($5500), Keon Coleman ($5400), DeAndre Hopkins ($5000), Dalton Kincaid ($5000), Curtis Samuel ($4300), Bills Defense ($3500), Titans Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($4700) if he plays
Lottery Ticket: Amari Cooper ($5800)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Overpriced for Expectation: Ja’Marr Chase ($8400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Joe Burrow ($6800), Tee Higgins ($6400), Chase Brown ($5900), Zack Moss ($5800), D’Onta Foreman ($5300), Deshaun Watson ($4900), Jake Browning ($4800), Pierre Strong Jr. ($4800), Bengals Defense ($3300), Elijah Moore ($3200), Browns Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerry Jeudy ($4800), David Njoku ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Nick Chubb ($6000)
Must-Own: None, but the pass-catchers from Cleveland have incredibly low prices since Amari Cooper was traded away
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
Overpriced for Expectation: Dameon Pierce ($5400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($7700), Joe Mixon ($7200), Jayden Reed ($7200), C.J. Stroud ($7100), Jordan Love ($6900), Tank Dell ($6500), Josh Jacobs ($6400), Romeo Doubs ($5500), Dontayvion Wicks ($5200), Christian Watson ($4900), Emanuel Wilson ($4500), Dare Ogunbowale ($4300), Dalton Schultz ($4200), Texans Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tucker Kraft ($4600)
Lottery Ticket: Packers Defense ($2900)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Overpriced for Expectation: Anthony Richardson ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($7300), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6200), Raheem Mostert ($6100), Josh Downs ($5700), Trey Sermon ($5500), Tyler Goodson ($5400), Jaylen Waddle ($5300), Jaylen Wright ($5200), Alec Pierce ($5200), Tyler Huntley ($5100), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4800), Colts Defense ($3200), Dolphins Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: De’Von Achane ($6700)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($3800)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Overpriced for Expectation: Vikings Defense ($2900), Lions Defense ($2800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8300), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6900), David Montgomery ($6600), Jared Goff ($6500), Aaron Jones ($6500), Sam Darnold ($6200), Jordan Addison ($5600), Sam LaPorta ($5300), T.J. Hockenson ($5200), Myles Gaskin ($4600), Cam Akers ($4500), Jalen Nailor ($4500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jameson Williams ($6000), Ty Chandler ($5600) if Aaron Jones is out
Lottery Ticket: Kalif Raymond ($3300)
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($8500)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($6200), Wan’Dale Robinson ($6100)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8000), Malik Nabers ($7500), Jalen Hurts ($7300), DeVonta Smith ($6900), Devin Singletary ($6200), Daniel Jones ($5400), Darius Slayton ($5100), Kenneth Gainwell ($4700), Jahan Dotson ($4500), Eric Gray ($4200), Eagles Defense ($3600), Giants Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Grant Calcaterra ($3200)
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3300)
Must-Own: Saquon Barkley ($8200)
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams
Overpriced for Expectation: Rams Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyren Williams ($8100), Matthew Stafford ($5600), Alexander Mattison ($5500), Zamir White ($4900), Aidan O’Connell ($4800), Jordan Whittington ($4800), Demarcus Robinson ($4700), Ameer Abdullah ($4500), Blake Corum ($4400), Tre Tucker ($4200), Tyler Johnson ($4100), Raiders Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brock Bowers ($5800), Tutu Atwell ($5000) if Cooper Kupp is out
Lottery Ticket: Cooper Kupp ($7900)
Must-Own: None
Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders
Overpriced for Expectation: Terry McLaurin ($6800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jayden Daniels ($7600), Diontae Johnson ($6600), Chuba Hubbard ($6500), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6400), Austin Ekeler ($5900), Andy Dalton ($5200), Miles Sanders ($4500), Jeremy McNichols ($4400), Commanders Defense ($3400), Panthers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Xavier Legette ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Ertz ($3900)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Overpriced for Expectation: Isaac Guerendo ($6600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($7000), Deebo Samuel Sr. ($7000), Brock Purdy ($6400), Xavier Worthy ($6400), Brandon Aiyuk ($6300), Kareem Hunt ($6000), George Kittle ($6000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5000), Samaje Perine ($4900), Carson Steele ($4400), Kyle Juszczyk ($4100), Chiefs Defense ($3100), 49ers Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Travis Kelce ($6300)
Lottery Ticket: Ricky Pearsall ($3400)
Must-Own: Jordan Mason ($7600)
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overpriced for Expectation: Najee Harris ($6000), Russell Wilson ($5400) if he is named the starting quarterback, Steelers Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($6800), Garrett Wilson ($6500), Justin Fields ($5900) if he is named the starting quarterback, George Pickens ($5800), Braelon Allen ($5300), Jaylen Warren ($5000), Allen Lazard ($4700), Pat Freiermuth ($4400), Jets Defense ($3200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Rodgers ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Calvin Austin III ($3100)
Must-Own: Davante Adams ($7000)
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($5700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8000), Derrick Henry ($8000), Chris Godwin ($7400), Mike Evans ($7300), Baker Mayfield ($6800), Zay Flowers ($6700), Justice Hill ($4900), Rashod Bateman ($4300), Isaiah Likely ($4300), Mark Andrews ($4000), Ravens Defense ($2900), Buccaneers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bucky Irving ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Cade Otton ($3600)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
Overpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($6600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6900), Kyler Murray ($6500), J.K. Dobbins ($6300), Trey McBride ($5600), Justin Herbert ($5500), Trey Benson ($4600), Michael Wilson ($4600), Quentin Johnston ($4400), Joshua Palmer ($4300), Gus Edwards ($4200), Greg Dortch ($4100), Chargers Defense ($3300), Cardinals Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ladd McConkey ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Zay Jones ($4500)
Must-Own: None