Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 6 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
Overpriced for Expectation: Jayden Reed ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7200), Kyler Murray ($6800), James Conner ($6800), Jordan Love ($6600), Trey McBride ($5700), Romeo Doubs ($5200), Dontayvion Wicks ($5200), Christian Watson ($4800), Michael Wilson ($4600), Greg Dortch ($4300), Packers Defense ($3100), Cardinals Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Josh Jacobs ($6700)
Lottery Ticket: Emanuel Wilson ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Overpriced for Expectation: Anthony Richardson ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jonathan Taylor ($7500), Tony Pollard ($6000), Trey Sermon ($6000), Calvin Ridley ($5700), Josh Downs ($5500), Tyler Goodson ($5400), Alec Pierce ($5400), DeAndre Hopkins ($5100), Will Levis ($4800), Tyler Boyd ($4100), Colts Defense ($3100), Titans Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyjae Spears ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Chig Okonkwo ($3300)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($7400), Joe Mixon ($6900), Tank Dell ($6200), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6100), Cam Akers ($5500), Antonio Gibson ($5300), Dameon Pierce ($4900), Dare Ogunbowale ($4800), DeMario Douglas ($4400), Texans Defense ($3600), Patriots Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Schultz ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Drake Maye ($5000)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Overpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($5600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($7700), Mike Evans ($7300), Chris Godwin ($6900), Chris Olave ($6600), Baker Mayfield ($6500), Rachaad White ($5700), Bucky Irving ($5400), Jamaal Williams ($5200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($2700), Buccaneers Defense ($2600)
Lottery Ticket: Spencer Rattler ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
Overpriced for Expectation: Deshaun Watson ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8200), Jalen Hurts ($7200), DeVonta Smith ($6800), Amari Cooper ($6000), Jerome Ford ($5600), Dallas Goedert ($5200), Jerry Jeudy ($5000), Jahan Dotson ($4800), Kenneth Gainwell ($4700), D’Onta Foreman ($4300), Eagles Defense ($3400), Browns Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($4200)
Lottery Ticket: Nick Chubb ($5800) if he is active
Must-Own: A.J. Brown ($7800),
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
Overpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson Jr. ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7800), Jayden Daniels ($7300), Zay Flowers ($6500), Terry McLaurin ($6400), Austin Ekeler ($5600), Justice Hill ($5200), Jeremy McNichols ($4500), Rashod Bateman ($4100), Ravens Defense ($3000), Commanders Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Isaiah Likely ($4500)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Ertz ($3700)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($8000)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Overpriced for Expectation: Bo Nix ($5400)
Fair Value for Expectations: J.K. Dobbins ($6200), Justin Herbert ($5500), Javonte Williams ($5500), Courtland Sutton ($5300), Quentin Johnston ($4700), Joshua Palmer ($4500), Jarrett Stidham ($4200), Gus Edwards ($4200), Chargers Defense ($3300), Broncos Defense ($3200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ladd McConkey ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4400)
Must-Own: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
Overpriced for Expectation: Brock Bowers ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: George Pickens ($5900), Najee Harris ($5800), Jakobi Meyers ($5400), Alexander Mattison ($5300), Jaylen Warren ($5000), Aidan O’Connell ($4900), Zamir White ($4900), Ameer Abdullah ($4500), Pat Freiermuth ($4300), Tre Tucker ($4200), Aaron Shampklin ($4100), Steelers Defense ($3700), Raiders Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Justin Fields ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Calvin Austin III ($3300)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Overpriced for Expectation: Rico Dowdle ($5900)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($8600), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8100), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7000), Dak Prescott ($6700), David Montgomery ($6500), Jared Goff ($6400), Jameson Williams ($5800), Sam LaPorta ($5500), Jalen Tolbert ($5000), Ezekiel Elliott ($4400), Cowboys Defense ($2900), Lions Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jake Ferguson ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: KaVontae Turpin ($3800)
Must-Own: None, but it feels imperative to have someone from this game
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Overpriced for Expectation: Falcons Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Drake London ($6700), Bijan Robinson ($6600), Chuba Hubbard ($6300), Kirk Cousins ($6200), Diontae Johnson ($6100), Andy Dalton ($5200), Tyler Allgeier ($5100), Xavier Legette ($4900), Miles Sanders ($4800), Kyle Pitts ($4400), Panthers Defense ($2400),
Underpriced for Expectation: Darnell Mooney ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants
Overpriced for Expectation: Bengals Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8400), Joe Burrow ($6900), Devin Singletary ($6300), Tee Higgins ($6300), Chase Brown ($6100), Wan’Dale Robinson ($6100), Zack Moss ($5900), Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5800), Darius Slayton ($4600), Eric Gray ($4200), Giants Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Daniel Jones ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Trayveon Williams ($4000)
Must-Own: Malik Nabers ($7500) if he plays
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($7500), Bills Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Cook ($7200), Garrett Wilson ($7200), Khalil Shakir ($5900), Aaron Rodgers ($5800), Braelon Allen ($5300), Ty Johnson ($4800), Ray Davis ($4700), Jets Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Keon Coleman ($5200), Dalton Kincaid ($5100), Allen Lazard ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: Mike Williams ($4500)
Must-Own: Breece Hall ($6800)