Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 5 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Overpriced for Expectation: DJ Moore ($6600), Bears Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Chuba Hubbard ($6100), Caleb Williams ($5800), Keenan Allen ($5800), D’Andre Swift ($5700), Andy Dalton ($5400), Rome Odunze ($5300), Xavier Legette ($5100), Miles Sanders ($4900), Roschon Johnson ($4900), Khalil Herbert ($4500), Cole Kmet ($4300), Panthers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Diontae Johnson ($6100)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3600)
Must-Own: None
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Overpriced for Expectation: Derrick Henry ($7800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8000), Lamar Jackson ($7500), Joe Burrow ($6400), Zay Flowers ($6400), Zack Moss ($6000), Tee Higgins ($6000), Chase Brown ($5600), Justice Hill ($5300), Ravens Defense ($3100), Bengals Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Isaiah Likely ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: Andrei Iosivas ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Overpriced for Expectation: Drake Maye ($5000), Jacoby Brissett ($4900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($7600), De’Von Achane ($7200), Raheem Mostert ($6200), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6000), Jaylen Waddle ($5700), Tyler Huntley ($5600), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5300), Antonio Gibson ($5100), Jaylen Wright ($4700), DeMario Douglas ($4400), JaMycal Hasty ($4100), Dolphins Defense ($3300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patriots Defense ($2900)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham Jr. ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Overpriced for Expectation: Commanders Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jayden Daniels ($6800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6600), Amari Cooper ($6200), Terry McLaurin ($6100), Austin Ekeler ($5600), Deshaun Watson ($5300), Jerry Jeudy ($5200), David Njoku ($5000), Jeremy McNichols ($4600), D’Onta Foreman ($4200), Browns Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerome Ford ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Ertz ($3800)
Must-Own: None
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overpriced for Expectation: Anthony Richardson ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($6700), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6000), Tank Bigsby ($5900), Brian Thomas Jr. ($5900), Trevor Lawrence ($5700), Trey Sermon ($5700), Joe Flacco ($5500), Tyler Goodson ($5400), Josh Downs ($5100), Alec Pierce ($4900), D’Ernest Johnson ($4800), Evan Engram ($4600), Gabe Davis ($4500), Jaguars Defense ($2800), Colts Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Christian Kirk ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Brenton Strange ($3200)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Overpriced for Expectation: Bills Defense ($2800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($7700), Nico Collins ($7700), C.J. Stroud ($7200), James Cook ($7000), Cam Akers ($5500), Tank Dell ($5400), Dalton Kincaid ($5300), Dameon Pierce ($5000), Dare Ogunbowale ($4800), Ty Johnson ($4300), Ray Davis ($4200), Curtis Samuel ($4200), Dalton Schultz ($4100), Texans Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Keon Coleman ($4700)
Lottery Ticket: Mack Hollins ($3200)
Must-Own: Stefon Diggs ($6900)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Overpriced for Expectation: Raiders Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Courtland Sutton ($5500), Brock Bowers ($5500), Javonte Williams ($5200), Gardner Minshew II ($5100), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4300), Josh Reynolds ($4100), Broncos Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($5500), Tre Tucker ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Bo Nix ($5000)
Must-Own: Alexander Mattison ($5200)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7500), Jordan Mason ($7400), Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6800), James Conner ($6500), Brandon Aiyuk ($6300), Brock Purdy ($6200), Trey McBride ($5900), Jauan Jennings ($5600), George Kittle ($5600), Trey Benson ($4700), Zay Jones ($4600), Greg Dortch ($4500), Isaac Guerendo ($4100), Cardinals Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyler Murray ($6700)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Wilson ($4400)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams
Overpriced for Expectation: Packers Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyren Williams ($7600), Jordan Love ($6500), Jayden Reed ($6500), Josh Jacobs ($6400), Matthew Stafford ($5500), Dontayvion Wicks ($5000), Demarcus Robinson ($4800), Jordan Whittington ($4600), Blake Corum ($4500), Emanuel Wilson ($4400), Tyler Johnson ($4300), Rams Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tutu Atwell ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: Colby Parkinson ($3700)
Must-Own: None
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
Overpriced for Expectation: Zach Charbonnet ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($7000), Kenneth Walker III ($6800), Geno Smith ($5900), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5800), Daniel Jones ($5200), Tyler Lockett ($5200), Kenny McIntosh ($4400), Seahawks Defense ($3500), Giants Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Wan’Dale Robinson ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3100)
Must-Own: Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($4300)
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overpriced for Expectation: Rico Dowdle ($5600)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($8800), Dak Prescott ($6800), Justin Fields ($5800), Russell Wilson ($5300), Jake Ferguson ($4800), Jalen Tolbert ($4700), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4500), Pat Freiermuth ($4200), KaVontae Turpin ($4000), Cowboys Defense ($3300), Steelers Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: George Pickens ($6000)
Lottery Ticket: Ezekiel Elliott ($4700)
Must-Own: Najee Harris ($5900)
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($6500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($7000), Xavier Worthy ($6300), Travis Kelce ($5800), Rashid Shaheed ($5700), Derek Carr ($5600), Kareem Hunt ($5500), Samaje Perine ($5200), Carson Steele ($4800), Jamaal Williams ($4300), Chiefs Defense ($3100), Saints Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Justin Watson ($3700)
Lottery Ticket: Taysom Hill ($4000)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($7500)