Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Overpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($3100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7400), Chris Olave ($6500), Drake London ($6200), Derek Carr ($5900), Kirk Cousins ($5800), Rashid Shaheed ($5500), Tyler Allgeier ($4900), Jamaal Williams ($4400), Falcons Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyle Pitts ($4800), Darnell Mooney ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: Alvin Kamara ($7600) — because of the risk that he isn’t fully healthy
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Overpriced for Expectation: Bears Defense ($3100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyren Williams ($7300), DJ Moore ($6700), Keenan Allen ($6100), Caleb Williams ($5600), Matthew Stafford ($5600), Rome Odunze ($5200), Khalil Herbert ($4800), Tyler Johnson ($4500), Jordan Whittington ($4400), Cole Kmet ($4400), Roschon Johnson ($4100), Rams Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($5500), Demarcus Robinson ($5100), Tutu Atwell ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Blake Corum ($4600)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Overpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($6000), Malik Willis ($5300),
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8700), Josh Jacobs ($6600), Aaron Jones ($6400), Jayden Reed ($6000), Sam Darnold ($5700), Romeo Doubs ($5500), Ty Chandler ($5100), Jordan Addison ($5100), Christian Watson ($5000), Jalen Nailor ($4900), Dontayvion Wicks ($4500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Packers Defense ($3000), Vikings Defense ($2900)
Lottery Ticket: Emanuel Wilson ($4400)
Must-Own: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Overpriced for Expectation: Jonathan Taylor ($7700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Anthony Richardson ($6300), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5800), George Pickens ($5700), Justin Fields ($5500), Alec Pierce ($5000), Trey Sermon ($4500), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4300), Steelers Defense ($3300), Colts Defense ($3200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Najee Harris ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Josh Downs ($4600)
Must-Own: None
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Overpriced for Expectation: Courtland Sutton ($5300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($7800), Garrett Wilson ($6900), Braelon Allen ($5400), Javonte Williams ($5200), Mike Williams ($5100), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4500), Allen Lazard ($4300), Josh Reynolds ($4300), Jets Defense ($3700), Broncos Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Rodgers ($6200)
Lottery Ticket: Bo Nix ($5100)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8000), Jalen Hurts ($7200), Mike Evans ($7000), Chris Godwin ($6800), Baker Mayfield ($6400), Bucky Irving ($5300), Kenneth Gainwell ($4900), Eagles Defense ($2900), Buccaneers Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dallas Goedert ($5100), Jahan Dotson ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: Johnny Wilson ($3800)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Overpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($5900), Bengals Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7700), Joe Burrow ($6600), Zack Moss ($5900), Chuba Hubbard ($5700), Diontae Johnson ($5600), Andy Dalton ($5300), Chase Brown ($5100), Miles Sanders ($5000), Panthers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Xavier Legette ($4800), Andrei Iosivas ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Mike Gesicki ($3500)
Must-Own: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Overpriced for Expectation: Cam Akers ($5300), Texans Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7200), C.J. Stroud ($7000), Travis Etienne Jr. ($7000), Joe Mixon ($6800), Stefon Diggs ($6600), Trevor Lawrence ($5700), Tank Bigsby ($5600), Brian Thomas Jr. ($5400), Christian Kirk ($5200), D’Ernest Johnson ($4900), Gabe Davis ($4700), Jaguars Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Schultz ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Dare Ogunbowale ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals
Overpriced for Expectation: Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyler Murray ($6800), Jayden Daniels ($6500), James Conner ($6500), Jeff Driskel ($4800), Trey Benson ($4800), Zay Jones ($4600), Greg Dortch ($4300), Michael Wilson ($4200), Cardinals Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Terry McLaurin ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Commanders Defense ($2500)
Must-Own: Brian Robinson Jr. ($6100)
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers
Overpriced for Expectation: George Kittle ($5500), Jacoby Brissett ($5000), Drake Maye ($5000), 49ers Defense ($3800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Deebo Samuel Sr. ($7000), Jordan Mason ($6700), Brandon Aiyuk ($6400), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6200), Brock Purdy ($6100), Jauan Jennings ($5600), Antonio Gibson ($4700), DeMario Douglas ($4500), Isaac Guerendo ($4200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Hunter Henry ($4200)
Lottery Ticket: Patriots Defense ($2400)
Must-Own: None
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders
Overpriced for Expectation: Alexander Mattison ($5200), Browns Defense ($3500), Raiders Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amari Cooper ($6300), Jerome Ford ($5700), Deshaun Watson ($5400), Zamir White ($5300), Gardner Minshew II ($5200), Jerry Jeudy ($5200), D’Onta Foreman ($4300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brock Bowers ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Jordan Akins ($3000)
Must-Own: Jakobi Meyers ($5500)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Overpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Rashee Rice ($7300), Patrick Mahomes ($7100), Xavier Worthy ($5700), Justin Herbert ($5500), Carson Steele ($5500), Samaje Perine ($5400), Kareem Hunt ($5200), Quentin Johnston ($4900), Ladd McConkey ($4800), Gus Edwards ($4700), Joshua Palmer ($4700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Travis Kelce ($5800),
Lottery Ticket: Chargers Defense ($2600)
Must-Own: J.K. Dobbins ($6300)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($7800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7500), James Cook ($6900), Derrick Henry ($6800), Zay Flowers ($6600), Khalil Shakir ($5600), Dalton Kincaid ($5200), Justice Hill ($4800), Mark Andrews ($4500), Curtis Samuel ($4400), Ray Davis ($4300), Isaiah Likely ($4300), Ty Johnson ($4100), Rashod Bateman ($4000), Bills Defense ($3100), Ravens Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Keon Coleman ($4700)
Lottery Ticket: Mack Hollins ($3100)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Overpriced for Expectation: Dolphins Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($8100), De’Von Achane ($7200), Jaylen Waddle ($5900), Calvin Ridley ($5800), Raheem Mostert ($5600), Tyler Huntley ($5500), DeAndre Hopkins ($5400), Tyjae Spears ($4800), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4300), Jaylen Wright ($4200), Tyler Boyd ($4200), Titans Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Chig Okonkwo ($3500)
Must-Own: Tony Pollard ($6000)
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Overpriced for Expectation: Zach Charbonnet ($6200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6700), DK Metcalf ($6500), David Montgomery ($6400), Kenneth Walker III ($6300), Geno Smith ($5800), Jameson Williams ($5700), Sam LaPorta ($5700), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5500), Tyler Lockett ($5000), Lions Defense ($3000), Seahawks Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jared Goff ($6700)
Lottery Ticket: Kalif Raymond ($3400)
Must-Own: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8300)