Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 3 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerry Jeudy ($5200), Browns Defense ($3800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Malik Nabers ($6400), Amari Cooper ($6100), Jerome Ford ($5800), Devin Singletary ($5700), Daniel Jones ($5300), D’Onta Foreman ($4400), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4400), Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($4200), Giants Defense ($3200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deshaun Watson ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Jordan Akins ($3000)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
Overpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($6200), Malik Willis ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($6700), Tony Pollard ($6000), Calvin Ridley ($6000), Jayden Reed ($5900), Romeo Doubs ($5600), DeAndre Hopkins ($5300), Will Levis ($5200), Tyjae Spears ($4900), Christian Watson ($4900), Dontayvion Wicks ($4600), Tyler Boyd ($4300), Packers Defense ($3300), Titans Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chig Okonkwo ($3700)
Lottery Ticket: Emanuel Wilson ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Overpriced for Expectation: Jonathan Taylor ($7300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Anthony Richardson ($6700), DJ Moore ($6700), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6100), Caleb Williams ($5600), D’Andre Swift ($5600), Khalil Herbert ($5000), Alec Pierce ($4800), Trey Sermon ($4300), Colts Defense ($3200), Bears Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rome Odunze ($4200)
Lottery Ticket: Josh Downs ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7300), Joe Mixon ($6900) if he plays, Stefon Diggs ($6600), Aaron Jones ($5900), Sam Darnold ($5500), Ty Chandler ($5300), Tank Dell ($5200), Jalen Nailor ($4400), Dalton Schultz ($4300), Texans Defense ($3000), Vikings Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cam Akers ($4700)
Lottery Ticket: Dare Ogunbowale ($4500)
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($8600)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($7300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($7700), Alvin Kamara ($7500), DeVonta Smith ($6900), Chris Olave ($6300), Derek Carr ($5800), Kenneth Gainwell ($5200), Dallas Goedert ($4600), Jamaal Williams ($4500), Jahan Dotson ($4500), Eagles Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Saints Defense ($2600)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overpriced for Expectation: J.K. Dobbins ($6400), Justin Herbert ($5700) if he plays
Fair Value for Expectations: Najee Harris ($5600), Justin Fields ($5400), Jaylen Warren ($5300), Ladd McConkey ($5000), Joshua Palmer ($4800), Quentin Johnston ($4600), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4200), Chargers Defense ($3600), Steelers Defense ($3300)
Underpriced for Expectation: George Pickens ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Gus Edwards ($5000)
Must-Own: None
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overpriced for Expectation: Bucky Irving ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7200), Chris Godwin ($6500), Baker Mayfield ($6300), Rachaad White ($6100), Javonte Williams ($5400), Bo Nix ($5100), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4400), Josh Reynolds ($4400), Buccaneers Defense ($3000),
Underpriced for Expectation: Courtland Sutton ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Broncos Defense ($2500)
Must-Own: None
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders
Overpriced for Expectation: Zamir White ($5500), Alexander Mattison ($5400), Raiders Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brock Bowers ($5400), Gardner Minshew II ($5300), Chuba Hubbard ($5200), Miles Sanders ($5100), Jakobi Meyers ($5100), Adam Thielen ($5000), Andy Dalton ($4800), Xavier Legette ($4500), Panthers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Diontae Johnson ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Davante Adams ($7600)
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Waddle ($6000), Seahawks Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($8400), De’Von Achane ($7000), DK Metcalf ($6300), Raheem Mostert ($5700), Geno Smith ($5600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5400), Skylar Thompson ($5100), Tyler Lockett ($5100), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4400), Jaylen Wright ($4300), Kenny McIntosh ($4300),
Underpriced for Expectation: Zach Charbonnet ($6000) if Walker is out
Lottery Ticket: Dolphins Defense ($2500)
Must-Own: None, but Charbonnet is close
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Overpriced for Expectation: Ezekiel Elliott ($5500), Mark Andrews ($4800), Isaiah Likely ($4700)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($8800), Lamar Jackson ($7500), Zay Flowers ($6800), Dak Prescott ($6600), Derrick Henry ($6500), Justice Hill ($4900), Rico Dowdle ($4800), Jake Ferguson ($4500), Cowboys Defense ($3400), Ravens Defense ($3100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brandin Cooks ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Luke Schoonmaker ($3300)
Must-Own: None
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Overpriced for Expectation: Demarcus Robinson ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyren Williams ($7100), Deebo Samuel Sr. ($7100), Jordan Mason ($6200), Brandon Aiyuk ($6200), Brock Purdy ($6000), Matthew Stafford ($5700), George Kittle ($5700), Tyler Johnson ($4700), Blake Corum ($4600), Jauan Jennings ($4100), 49ers Defense ($3500), Rams Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tutu Atwell ($4300)
Lottery Ticket: Jordan Whittington ($4200)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7400), Kyler Murray ($6900), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6800), Jared Goff ($6500), Trey McBride ($6200), David Montgomery ($6100), Sam LaPorta ($6000), Trey Benson ($4900), Michael Wilson ($4100), Lions Defense ($2900), Cardinals Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jameson Williams ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Greg Dortch ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Overpriced for Expectation: Drake London ($5800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7600), Patrick Mahomes ($7000), Rashee Rice ($7000), Xavier Worthy ($6000), Kirk Cousins ($5900), Carson Steele ($5400), Tyler Allgeier ($5200), Kyle Pitts ($5000), Darnell Mooney ($4100), Chiefs Defense ($3400), Falcons Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Travis Kelce ($6100)
Lottery Ticket: Samaje Perine ($5500)
Must-Own: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($5300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($8000), Travis Etienne Jr. ($7000), Trevor Lawrence ($5800), Christian Kirk ($5200), Tank Bigsby ($5100), Keon Coleman ($4800), Curtis Samuel ($4400), D’Ernest Johnson ($4400), Ray Davis ($4300), Ty Johnson ($4200), Bills Defense ($2900), Jaguars Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($6800), Khalil Shakir ($5500), Brian Thomas Jr. ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: Gabe Davis ($4200)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals
Overpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($5900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7500), Joe Burrow ($6300), Jayden Daniels ($6100), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5900), Austin Ekeler ($5700), Terry McLaurin ($5600), Zack Moss ($5600), Chase Brown ($4600), Bengals Defense ($3100), Commanders Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mike Gesicki ($3600)
Lottery Ticket: Andrei Iosivas ($4300)
Must-Own: None