Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 18 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Overpriced for Expectation: Falcons Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($8500), Drake London ($6500), Adam Thielen ($6200), Bryce Young ($5800), Darnell Mooney ($5100), Tyler Allgeier ($4900), Mike Boone ($4400), Xavier Legette ($4200), Jalen Coker ($4100), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4100), Panthers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Michael Penix Jr. ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Raheem Blackshear ($5000)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Overpriced for Expectation: Jayden Daniels ($7800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Terry McLaurin ($6800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6000), Rico Dowdle ($5800), Marcus Mariota ($5300), Cooper Rush ($5200), Brandin Cooks ($4700), Jeremy McNichols ($4600), Olamide Zaccheaus ($4500), Jalen Tolbert ($4300), Commanders Defense ($3100), Cowboys Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jake Ferguson ($3900)
Lottery Ticket: Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($5000)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Overpriced for Expectation: Packers Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($8100), Jordan Love ($6100), Keenan Allen ($6000), DJ Moore ($5900), Caleb Williams ($5600), Jayden Reed ($5600), Romeo Doubs ($5500), Emanuel Wilson ($5100), Chris Brooks ($4900), Rome Odunze ($4900), Christian Watson ($4700), Roschon Johnson ($4400), Dontayvion Wicks ($4400), Bears Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Tucker Kraft ($3700)
Must-Own: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Overpriced for Expectation: Mac Jones ($5200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brian Thomas Jr. ($7300), Anthony Richardson ($5900), Joe Flacco ($5400), Josh Downs ($5300), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5200), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5200), Alec Pierce ($5000), Parker Washington ($4300), Colts Defense ($3300), Jaguars Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jonathan Taylor ($8200)
Lottery Ticket: Tank Bigsby ($5100)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8500), James Cook ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Drake Maye ($5700), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5500), Antonio Gibson ($5300), Khalil Shakir ($5300), Ty Johnson ($5000), Amari Cooper ($5000), Keon Coleman ($4800), DeMario Douglas ($4300), Hunter Henry ($4300), Kayshon Boutte ($4200), Dalton Kincaid ($4100), Bills Defense ($3100), Patriots Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ray Davis ($5200)
Lottery Ticket: Mitchell Trubisky ($5500)
Must-Own: None
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Overpriced for Expectation: Drew Lock ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($7500), Malik Nabers ($7100), DeVonta Smith ($5900), Kenny Pickett ($5500) if he plays, Tanner McKee ($5000) if he plays, Devin Singletary ($4800), Will Shipley ($4600), Tyrion Davis-Price ($4600), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4600), Dallas Goedert ($4100), Eagles Defense ($3300), Giants Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Grant Calcatterra ($3100)
Must-Own: Kenneth Gainwell ($5600)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overpriced for Expectation: Buccaneers Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($8000), Bucky Irving ($7700), Alvin Kamara ($7300), Baker Mayfield ($7000), Rachaad White ($5700), Derek Carr ($5300) if he plays, Kendre Miller ($5300), Chris Olave ($5200), Jalen McMillan ($5100), Spencer Rattler ($4800) if he plays, Jamaal Williams ($4300), Saints Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cade Otton ($4200) if he plays
Lottery Ticket: Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4100) if he plays
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Overpriced for Expectation: Mason Rudolph ($5000), Will Levis ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7800), Joe Mixon ($7400), Tony Pollard ($6200), C.J. Stroud ($6000), Dameon Pierce ($5400), Calvin Ridley ($5400), Dare Ogunbowale ($4400), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4400), Titans Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Texans Defense ($2800)
Lottery Ticket: Julius Chestnut ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Overpriced for Expectation: Chargers Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ladd McConkey ($6900), J.K. Dobbins ($6300), Justin Herbert ($5900), Jakobi Meyers ($5700), Alexander Mattison ($5300), Aidan O’Connell ($5100), Ameer Abdullah ($5100), Kimani Vidal ($4500), Joshua Palmer ($4400), Hassan Haskins ($4300), Raiders Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Quentin Johnston ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Gus Edwards ($4800)
Must-Own: Brock Bowers ($6600)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Overpriced for Expectation: Kyren Williams ($7600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Puka Nacua ($8300), Cooper Kupp ($6300), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6100), Blake Corum ($5600), DK Metcalf ($5600), Geno Smith ($5500), Ronnie Rivers ($4500), Kenny McIntosh ($4400), Demarcus Robinson ($4200), Seahawks Defense ($2900), Rams Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zach Charbonnet ($6700)
Lottery Ticket: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5200)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Overpriced for Expectation: Dolphins Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: De’Von Achane ($7200), Tyreek Hill ($6700), Breece Hall ($6500), Garrett Wilson ($6000), Jonnu Smith ($5800), Aaron Rodgers ($5600), Jaylen Waddle ($5400), Braelon Allen ($5000), Raheem Mostert ($4700), Isaiah Davis ($4500), Jaylen Wright ($4200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jets Defense ($2600)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Huntley ($4800)
Must-Own: Davante Adams ($7000)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Overpriced for Expectation: Patrick Taylor Jr. ($5400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Trey McBride ($6500), Kyler Murray ($6000), George Kittle ($6000), Jauan Jennings ($5800), Deebo Samuel Sr. ($5700), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5500), Michael Carter ($4700), DeeJay Dallas ($4200), Ricky Pearsall ($4100), 49ers Defense ($2800), Cardinals Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Isaac Guerendo ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Josh Dobbs ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Overpriced for Expectation: Broncos Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bo Nix ($6400), Courtland Sutton ($6400), Xavier Worthy ($5800), Kareem Hunt ($5500), Travis Kelce ($5300), Javonte Williams ($4900), DeAndre Hopkins ($4900), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4800), Audric Estime ($4600), Marvin Mims Jr. ($4600), Samaje Perine ($4500), Hollywood Brown ($4500), Chiefs Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Carson Steele ($4700)
Lottery Ticket: Carson Wentz ($5600)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions – Single-Game Showdown Flex Salaries
Overpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($4000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jahmyr Gibbs ($11600), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($10600), Jared Goff ($9600), Aaron Jones Sr. ($8400), Jameson Williams ($7600), Jordan Addison ($7400), Sam LaPorta ($5800), T.J. Hockenson ($5400), Jake Bates ($5000), Will Reichard ($4800), Vikings Defense ($3800), Tim Patrick ($3600), Cam Akers ($3400), Ty Chandler ($2400), Jermar Jefferson ($2000), Brock Wright ($1600), Josh Oliver ($1200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Sam Darnold ($9400), Jalen Nailor ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: Craig Reynolds ($3000)
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($11400)