Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 17 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8500)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Cook ($7200), Davante Adams ($7100), Breece Hall ($6300), Garrett Wilson ($6100), Aaron Rodgers ($5700), Khalil Shakir ($5600), Amari Cooper ($5000), Ty Johnson ($4700), Isaiah Davis ($4500), Keon Coleman ($4500), Ray Davis ($4200), Bills Defense ($3600), Jets Defense ($2100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($4300)
Lottery Ticket: Braelon Allen ($5000)
Must-Own: None
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overpriced for Expectation: Chuba Hubbard ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Baker Mayfield ($6900), Bucky Irving ($6700), Rachaad White ($5700), Bryce Young ($5600), Jalen McMillan ($4600), Sean Tucker ($4400), Xavier Legette ($4400), Jalen Coker ($4300), David Moore ($4100), Buccaneers Defense ($3400), Panthers Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Payne Durham ($2900)
Must-Own: Mike Evans ($7500)
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
Overpriced for Expectation: Colts Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jonathan Taylor ($7900), Malik Nabers ($6600), Anthony Richardson ($5900), Josh Downs ($4800), Alec Pierce ($4700), Michael Pittman Jr. ($4700), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4400), Devin Singletary ($4200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Drew Lock ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: Giants Defense ($2300)
Must-Own: Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5800)
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Overpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($7300), Brock Bowers ($6700), Alexander Mattison ($5600), Kendre Miller ($5500), Spencer Rattler ($5300), Aidan O’Connell ($5100), Ameer Abdullah ($5100), Jamaal Williams ($4800), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4200), Raiders Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($2900)
Lottery Ticket: Chris Olave ($5200)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaguars Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brian Thomas Jr. ($6800), Tony Pollard ($6400), Calvin Ridley ($5500), Tyjae Spears ($5400), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5300), Mac Jones ($5200), Tank Bigsby ($5200), Parker Washington ($4200), Titans Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mason Rudolph ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($7500) if he plays, Rico Dowdle ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($7800), CeeDee Lamb ($7400), DeVonta Smith ($5800), Kenny Pickett ($5500), Ezekiel Elliott ($4600), Kenneth Gainwell ($4600), Brandin Cooks ($4600), Jalen Tolbert ($4100), Dallas Goedert ($4100), Eagles Defense ($3100), Cowboys Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cooper Rush ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Jake Ferguson ($3700)
Must-Own: Saquon Barkley ($8600)
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Overpriced for Expectation: Dolphins Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: De’Von Achane ($7700), Tyreek Hill ($6900), Jerry Jeudy ($6500), Jerome Ford ($5900), Tua Tagovailoa ($5800), Jonnu Smith ($5700), Jaylen Waddle ($5400), Raheem Mostert ($4700), Pierre Strong Jr. ($4300), Jaylen Wright ($4100), Browns Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Elijah Moore ($4300)
Lottery Ticket: Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4800)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Jacobs ($8100), Sam Darnold ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8300), Jordan Addison ($6300), Jordan Love ($6200), Jayden Reed ($5900), Romeo Doubs ($5100), Cam Akers ($4900), Christian Watson ($4900), T.J. Hockenson ($4500), Chris Brooks ($4400), Ty Chandler ($4300), Emanuel Wilson ($4100), Vikings Defense ($3300), Packers Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones Sr. ($6200)
Lottery Ticket: Tucker Kraft ($3900)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Overpriced for Expectation: Bijan Robinson ($8200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jayden Daniels ($7800), Terry McLaurin ($7200), Drake London ($6400), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6100), Michael Penix Jr. ($5400), Darnell Mooney ($5300), Tyler Allgeier ($5000), Jeremy McNichols ($4600), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4300), Falcons Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Commanders Defense ($3100)
Lottery Ticket: Olamide Zaccheaus ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Overpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jahmyr Gibbs ($8500), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7700), Jared Goff ($6800), Isaac Guerendo ($6500), Brock Purdy ($6300), Jameson Williams ($6000), George Kittle ($6000), Jauan Jennings ($5800), Patrick Taylor Jr. ($5500), Sam LaPorta ($4900), Israel Abanikanda ($4500), Tim Patrick ($4400), 49ers Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deebo Samuel Sr. ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Ricky Pearsall ($4200)
Must-Own: None