Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
Overpriced for Expectation: Drake London ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($8100), Malik Nabers ($6100), Tyler Allgeier ($5500), Darnell Mooney ($5400), Drew Lock ($4900), Devin Singletary ($4500), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4500), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4100), Falcons Defense ($3700), Giants Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Penix Jr. ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Overpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7900), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7500), Jared Goff ($6800), DJ Moore ($5700), D’Andre Swift ($5600), Jameson Williams ($5500), Rome Odunze ($5100), Travis Homer ($5000), Roschon Johnson ($4800), Sam LaPorta ($4700), Tim Patrick ($4500), Bears Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Keenan Allen ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Caleb Williams ($5500)
Must-Own: None
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerry Jeudy ($6700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8500), Chase Brown ($7700), Joe Burrow ($7500), Tee Higgins ($6800), David Njoku ($5200), Cedric Tillman ($4900), Elijah Moore ($4800), Khalil Herbert ($4500), Pierre Strong Jr. ($4400), D’Onta Foreman ($4100), Bengals Defense ($3300), Browns Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerome Ford ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4800)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Overpriced for Expectation: Mason Rudolph ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tony Pollard ($6600), Calvin Ridley ($5700), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5000), Tyjae Spears ($4900), Josh Downs ($4900), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4700), Colts Defense ($3000), Titans Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Anthony Richardson ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Adonai Mitchell ($3800)
Must-Own: Jonathan Taylor ($6900)
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Overpriced for Expectation: Isaiah Davis ($5000),
Fair Value for Expectations: Puka Nacua ($8000), Kyren Williams ($7200), Davante Adams ($7100), Garrett Wilson ($6600), Cooper Kupp ($6500), Breece Hall ($6100), Aaron Rodgers ($5600), Braelon Allen ($5100), Blake Corum ($4200), Rams Defense ($3000), Jets Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Allen Lazard ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Overpriced for Expectation: A.J. Brown ($7800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8300), Jalen Hurts ($7800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6200), DeVonta Smith ($5800), Kenneth Gainwell ($4800), Eagles Defense ($3100), Commanders Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jayden Daniels ($7300)
Lottery Ticket: Jeremy McNichols ($4300)
Must-Own: Terry McLaurin ($7300)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Overpriced for Expectation: Cardinals Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Conner ($7100), Chuba Hubbard ($6800), Trey McBride ($6200), Kyler Murray ($6100), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5400), Bryce Young ($5300), Michael Wilson ($4200), Jalen Coker ($4200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Panthers Defense ($2600)
Must-Own: None
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8700)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Cook ($7000), Khalil Shakir ($5900), Drake Maye ($5800), Antonio Gibson ($5300), Ty Johnson ($5200), Amari Cooper ($5200), Ray Davis ($4700), Dalton Kincaid ($4600), DeMario Douglas ($4400), Hunter Henry ($4100), Bills Defense ($3600), Patriots Defense ($2100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rhamondre Stevenson ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Keon Coleman ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Overpriced for Expectation: Zach Charbonnet ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8200), Sam Darnold ($6500), Aaron Jones Sr. ($6400), Jordan Addison ($6200), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6000), Geno Smith ($5700), DK Metcalf ($5500), Cam Akers ($5400), T.J. Hockenson ($4800), Ty Chandler ($4300), Vikings Defense ($3500), Seahawks Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Walker III ($6300)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Lockett ($3900)
Must-Own: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Overpriced for Expectation: Mac Jones ($5200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brian Thomas Jr. ($6300), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5800), Jakobi Meyers ($5800), Tank Bigsby ($5300), Aidan O’Connell ($5100), Alexander Mattison ($5100), Ameer Abdullah ($4600), Parker Washington ($4300), C.J. Beathard ($4200), Jaguars Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brock Bowers ($6500)
Lottery Ticket: Raiders Defense ($2700)
Must-Own: None
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
Overpriced for Expectation: Brock Purdy ($6300)
Fair Value for Expectations: De’Von Achane ($7400), Tyreek Hill ($6900), Tua Tagovailoa ($6000), George Kittle ($6000), Jauan Jennings ($5900), Jaylen Waddle ($5600), Jonnu Smith ($5500), Raheem Mostert ($4900), Israel Abanikanda ($4700), Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($4400), Ricky Pearsall ($4300), Jaylen Wright ($4100), Dolphins Defense ($2900), 49ers Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deebo Samuel Sr. ($5200)
Lottery Ticket: Patrick Taylor Jr. ($5200)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($5900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7600), Baker Mayfield ($6600), Bucky Irving ($6400), Cooper Rush ($5200), Ezekiel Elliott ($4800), Brandin Cooks ($4500), Sean Tucker ($4400), Cade Otton ($4400), Dalvin Cook ($4300), Buccaneers Defense ($3400), Cowboys Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rico Dowdle ($6300)
Lottery Ticket: Jalen McMillan ($4100)
Must-Own: CeeDee Lamb ($7500)
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Overpriced for Expectation: Jayden Reed ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($7600), Jordan Love ($6200), Kendre Miller ($5300), Romeo Doubs ($5100), Christian Watson ($5000), Jamaal Williams ($4600), Dontayvion Wicks ($4100), Packers Defense ($3200), Saints Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Derek Carr ($5100) or Spencer Rattler ($4600) — whichever one plays
Lottery Ticket: Chris Olave ($5200) if he plays, otherwise Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4200)
Must-Own: None