Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 15 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
Overpriced for Expectation: Kareem Hunt ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($6700), Jerry Jeudy ($6200), Travis Kelce ($5700), Jameis Winston ($5500), Nick Chubb ($5500), DeAndre Hopkins ($5300), David Njoku ($5200), Xavier Worthy ($5100), Elijah Moore ($5000), Jerome Ford ($4900), Cedric Tillman ($4900), Chiefs Defense ($3700), Browns Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Isiah Pacheco ($6000)
Lottery Ticket: Justin Watson ($3400)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Overpriced for Expectation: Khalil Herbert ($5200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8400), Joe Burrow ($7300), Tee Higgins ($6800), Tony Pollard ($6700), Calvin Ridley ($5900), Will Levis ($5000), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4900), Trayveon Williams ($4500), Bengals Defense ($3500), Titans Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chase Brown ($7200)
Lottery Ticket: Tyjae Spears ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints
Overpriced for Expectation: Jake Haener ($5100), Spencer Rattler ($4600),
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($7700), Jayden Daniels ($7500), Terry McLaurin ($7200), Jeremy McNichols ($5300), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4500), Jamaal Williams ($4200), Mason Tipton ($4100), Saints Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Commanders Defense ($3400)
Lottery Ticket: Kendre Miller ($4500)
Must-Own: Brian Robinson Jr. ($6200)
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Overpriced for Expectation: Lamar Jackson ($8300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derrick Henry ($8300), Zay Flowers ($6000), Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5700), Justice Hill ($4800), Keaton Mitchell ($4800), Devin Singletary ($4700), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4600), Rashod Bateman ($4400), Darius Slayton ($4100), Mark Andrews ($4100), Ravens Defense ($3900), Giants Defense ($2100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Malik Nabers ($6400)
Lottery Ticket: Tommy DeVito ($4400)
Must-Own: None
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Overpriced for Expectation: Ezekiel Elliott ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($7300), Chuba Hubbard ($6500), Rico Dowdle ($6100), Bryce Young ($5300), Brandin Cooks ($4700), Dalvin Cook ($4600), Panthers Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Cowboys Defense ($2800)
Must-Own: Xavier Legette ($4700)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overpriced for Expectation: Brian Thomas Jr. ($5800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($6900), Garrett Wilson ($6500), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5600), Aaron Rodgers ($5400), Braelon Allen ($5400), Tank Bigsby ($5100), Isaiah Davis ($5000), Mac Jones ($4900), Parker Washington ($4100), Jets Defense ($3000), Jaguars Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Breece Hall ($6400)
Lottery Ticket: Allen Lazard ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
Overpriced for Expectation: Texans Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($8100), De’Von Achane ($7900), Tyreek Hill ($7400), C.J. Stroud ($6200), Tua Tagovailoa ($6100), Jaylen Waddle ($5700), Tank Dell ($5400), Jonnu Smith ($5400), Raheem Mostert ($4900), Jaylen Wright ($4400), Dameon Pierce ($4300), Dolphins Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Joe Mixon ($7800)
Lottery Ticket: Dalton Schultz ($3300)
Must-Own: None
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Overpriced for Expectation: Broncos Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jonathan Taylor ($6900), Courtland Sutton ($6600), Bo Nix ($6300), Javonte Williams ($5200), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5200), Josh Downs ($5100), Alec Pierce ($4800), Audric Estime ($4500), Devaughn Vele ($4200), Colts Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Anthony Richardson ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
Overpriced for Expectation: Jared Goff ($6500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($8500), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7600), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7500), David Montgomery ($7000), Khalil Shakir ($6100), Jameson Williams ($5600), Amari Cooper ($5300), Keon Coleman ($4800), Ray Davis ($4700), Ty Johnson ($4400), Sam LaPorta ($4400), Tim Patrick ($4300), Lions Defense ($2900),
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: Bills Defense ($2600)
Must-Own: James Cook ($6800)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
Overpriced for Expectation: Najee Harris ($5900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8600), Jalen Hurts ($8000), A.J. Brown ($8000), Russell Wilson ($5700), DeVonta Smith ($5500), Jaylen Warren ($5400), Steelers Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Eagles Defense ($3100)
Lottery Ticket: Kenneth Gainwell ($4600)
Must-Own: None
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Overpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($6600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyler Murray ($6000), Trey McBride ($6000), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5900), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5500), Antonio Gibson ($4900), Trey Benson ($4600), Michael Wilson ($4400), Hunter Henry ($4300), Emari Demercado ($4100), Cardinals Defense ($3000), Patriots Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeMario Douglas ($4500), Kendrick Bourne ($3600)
Lottery Ticket: Drake Maye ($5600)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers
Overpriced for Expectation: Baker Mayfield ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7100), Bucky Irving ($6300), Ladd McConkey ($6300), Justin Herbert ($5900), Rachaad White ($5800), Quentin Johnston ($5000), Joshua Palmer ($4600), Cade Otton ($4500), Sean Tucker ($4300), Hassan Haskins ($4200), Chargers Defense ($2900), Buccaneers Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gus Edwards ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Kimani Vidal ($4800)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Overpriced for Expectation: Packers Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($7400), Kenneth Walker III ($6300), Jordan Love ($6200), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6200), Jayden Reed ($6100), Zach Charbonnet ($6000), DK Metcalf ($6000), Christian Watson ($5200), Romeo Doubs ($4600), Dontayvion Wicks ($4300), Seahawks Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Geno Smith ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Lockett ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Overpriced for Expectation: Vikings Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8200), Sam Darnold ($6600), Aaron Jones Sr. ($6500), Jordan Addison ($5900), DJ Moore ($5800), Caleb Williams ($5700), D’Andre Swift ($5600), Rome Odunze ($5300), T.J. Hockenson ($4800), Roschon Johnson ($4300), Cam Akers ($4100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Keenan Allen ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Bears Defense ($2300)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders
Overpriced for Expectation: Aidan O’Connell ($4800), Desmond Ridder ($4800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brock Bowers ($6600), Drake London ($6400), Jakobi Meyers ($5700), Kirk Cousins ($5500), Darnell Mooney ($5500), Sincere McCormick ($5100), Alexander Mattison ($5000), Ameer Abdullah ($4600), Tyler Allgeier ($4400), Zamir White ($4200), Tre Tucker ($4100), Raiders Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Falcons Defense ($3200)
Lottery Ticket: Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4500)
Must-Own: Bijan Robinson ($7600)