Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 14 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brian Thomas Jr. ($5800), Calvin Ridley ($5700), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5600), Tank Bigsby ($5100), Will Levis ($5000), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4700), Tyjae Spears ($4400), Parker Washington ($4400), Titans Defense ($2800), Jaguars Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Evan Engram ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Mac Jones ($5000)
Must-Own: None
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Overpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($6300)
Fair Value for Expectations: De’Von Achane ($8200), Tyreek Hill ($7100), Breece Hall ($7000), Davante Adams ($6700), Garrett Wilson ($6600), Jaylen Waddle ($5400), Jonnu Smith ($5300), Braelon Allen ($5000), Raheem Mostert ($4900), Dolphins Defense ($3200), Jets Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Rodgers ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Allen Lazard ($4400)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Overpriced for Expectation:
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($7800), Bijan Robinson ($7500), Aaron Jones ($6500), Sam Darnold ($6100), Darnell Mooney ($5500), Jordan Addison ($5300), Cam Akers ($4600), Tyler Allgeier ($4500), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4500), T.J. Hockenson ($4300), Kyle Pitts ($4100), Vikings Defense ($3400), Falcons Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Drake London ($6400)
Lottery Ticket: Kirk Cousins ($5500)
Must-Own: None
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Malik Nabers ($6900), Devin Singletary ($4800), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4800), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4600), Jamaal Williams ($4400), Darius Slayton ($4300), Mason Tipton ($4100), Saints Defense ($2900), Giants Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Derek Carr ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Drew Lock ($4700)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($8000)
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Overpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Gainwell ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($9000), A.J. Brown ($8100), Jalen Hurts ($7800), Chuba Hubbard ($6200), DeVonta Smith ($5800), Bryce Young ($5200), Xavier Legette ($4900), Dallas Goedert ($4500), Eagles Defense ($3700), Panthers Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathon Brooks ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerome Ford ($4900)
Fair Value for Expectations: George Pickens ($6800), Najee Harris ($6000), Russell Wilson ($5900), Nick Chubb ($5900), Jerry Jeudy ($5700), Jaylen Warren ($5500), Jameis Winston ($5400), Cedric Tillman ($5100), Elijah Moore ($4800), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4100), Steelers Defense ($3500), Browns Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Pat Freiermuth ($3800)
Must-Own: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($5300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7200), Bucky Irving ($6600), Brock Bowers ($6500), Baker Mayfield ($6400), Jakobi Meyers ($5600), Alexander Mattison ($5100), Ameer Abdullah ($4700), Sincere McCormick ($4600), Tre Tucker ($4600), Sean Tucker ($4300), Zamir White ($4200), Buccaneers Defense ($3600), Raiders Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cade Otton ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: Aidan O’Connell ($4800)
Must-Own: None
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Overpriced for Expectation: Zach Charbonnet ($4800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kenneth Walker III ($6800), James Conner ($6700), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6300), DK Metcalf ($6200), Geno Smith ($5800), Trey Benson ($4500), Michael Wilson ($4100), Cardinals Defense ($3000), Seahawks Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Trey McBride ($6100), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6000)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Lockett ($4300)
Must-Own: Kyler Murray ($6000)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Overpriced for Expectation: Bills Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($8000), Puka Nacua ($7700), James Cook ($7400), Cooper Kupp ($7000), Khalil Shakir ($5900), Matthew Stafford ($5700), Amari Cooper ($5100), Keon Coleman ($5000), Dalton Kincaid ($4900), Blake Corum ($4200), Demarcus Robinson ($4200), Ty Johnson ($4100), Rams Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyren Williams ($7300)
Lottery Ticket: Ray Davis ($5200)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Overpriced for Expectation: DJ Moore ($6100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brock Purdy ($6200), George Kittle ($5800), D’Andre Swift ($5700), Caleb Williams ($5600), Keenan Allen ($5600), Jauan Jennings ($5200), Rome Odunze ($5000), Roschon Johnson ($4300), 49ers Defense ($3100), Bears Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deebo Samuel Sr. ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Ricky Pearsall ($4500)
Must-Own: Isaac Guerendo ($5400)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Overpriced for Expectation: Kareem Hunt ($5500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($6800), Ladd McConkey ($6300), Isiah Pacheco ($6100), Justin Herbert ($5800), Travis Kelce ($5500), DeAndre Hopkins ($5400), Gus Edwards ($5300), Xavier Worthy ($4900), Quentin Johnston ($4500), Hassan Haskins ($4300), Chiefs Defense ($3200), Chargers Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kimani Vidal ($4500)
Lottery Ticket: Will Dissly ($3800)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys
Overpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($6500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8500), Joe Burrow ($7300), CeeDee Lamb ($7300), Rico Dowdle ($6000), Cooper Rush ($4900), Brandin Cooks ($4700), Ezekiel Elliott ($4200), Cowboys Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bengals Defense ($3000)
Lottery Ticket: Mike Gesicki ($4000)
Must-Own: Chase Brown ($6700)