Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 13 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Overpriced for Expectation: Chargers Defense ($3100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7300), Drake London ($6500), Ladd McConkey ($6100), Kirk Cousins ($6000), Justin Herbert ($5600), Darnell Mooney ($5600), Tyler Allgeier ($5000), Quentin Johnston ($5000), Kyle Pitts ($4600), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4300), Joshua Palmer ($4300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gus Edwards ($4300)
Lottery Ticket: Falcons Defense ($2700)
Must-Own: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Overpriced for Expectation: Najee Harris ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8600), Joe Burrow ($7000), George Pickens ($6800), Tee Higgins ($6600), Chase Brown ($6200), Russell Wilson ($5700), Jaylen Warren ($5500), Steelers Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mike Gesicki ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Bengals Defense ($2800)
Must-Own: None
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Overpriced for Expectation: Vikings Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8100), James Conner ($6600), Aaron Jones ($6500), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6000), Sam Darnold ($5900), Trey McBride ($5800), Cam Akers ($4500), T.J. Hockenson ($4400), Trey Benson ($4300), Michael Wilson ($4200), Cardinals Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Addison ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Jalen Nailor ($3500)
Must-Own: Kyler Murray ($6100)
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Overpriced for Expectation: Jonathan Taylor ($6900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Rhamondre Stevenson ($5900), Drake Maye ($5600), Josh Downs ($5400), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5200), Antonio Gibson ($4900), Alec Pierce ($4900), Hunter Henry ($4200), Colts Defense ($2800), Patriots Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Anthony Richardson ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: DeMario Douglas ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets
Overpriced for Expectation: Seahawks Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($7500), Kenneth Walker III ($7000), Davante Adams ($7000), Garrett Wilson ($6900), DK Metcalf ($6400), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6300), Geno Smith ($5500), Tyler Lockett ($4500), Zach Charbonnet ($4400), Jets Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Rodgers ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Braelon Allen ($5000)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Overpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jayden Daniels ($7200), Terry McLaurin ($7100), Tony Pollard ($6300), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6100), Austin Ekeler ($5600), Jeremy McNichols ($5400), Tyjae Spears ($4400), Noah Brown ($4400), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4300), Commanders Defense ($3400), Titans Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Ertz ($3800)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overpriced for Expectation: Texans Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Joe Mixon ($8000), Nico Collins ($7900), C.J. Stroud ($6400), Tank Dell ($5900), Brian Thomas Jr. ($5500), Tank Bigsby ($5200), Evan Engram ($4800), Dameon Pierce ($4600), Dare Ogunbowale ($4100), John Metchie III ($4100), Jaguars Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne Jr. ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Trevor Lawrence ($5400)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Overpriced for Expectation: Alvin Kamara ($7700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Puka Nacua ($7600), Cooper Kupp ($7400), Matthew Stafford ($5800), Derek Carr ($5100), Taysom Hill ($5000), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4500), Jamaal Williams ($4200), Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($4200), Rams Defense ($2700), Saints Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyren Williams ($7200)
Lottery Ticket: Blake Corum ($4200)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($5300), Buccaneers Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Chuba Hubbard ($6700), Mike Evans ($6700), Baker Mayfield ($6600), Bucky Irving ($5800), Xavier Legette ($5100), Adam Thielen ($4800), Sean Tucker ($4500), Cade Otton ($4500), Panthers Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bryce Young ($4700)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathon Brooks ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens
Overpriced for Expectation: Lamar Jackson ($8000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8500), A.J. Brown ($8300), Jalen Hurts ($7700), Zay Flowers ($6200), DeVonta Smith ($5800), Kenneth Gainwell ($5100), Justice Hill ($4800), Rashod Bateman ($4400), Ravens Defense ($2900), Eagles Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dallas Goedert ($4300)
Lottery Ticket: Diontae Johnson ($4200)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($7800)
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Jordan Mason ($4500), Bills Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($7800), James Cook ($7100), Brock Purdy ($6200), Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6200), George Kittle ($6200), Khalil Shakir ($6100), Jauan Jennings ($5400), Keon Coleman ($5000), Dalton Kincaid ($4900), Ricky Pearsall ($4700), Ty Johnson ($4100), 49ers Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Amari Cooper ($5200)
Lottery Ticket: Ray Davis ($4900)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($8200)
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerome Ford ($4400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nick Chubb ($6400), Bo Nix ($6300), Courtland Sutton ($6300), Jerry Jeudy ($5900), Jameis Winston ($5700), Cedric Tillman ($5100), Elijah Moore ($4800), Javonte Williams ($4700), Audric Estime ($4600), Devaughn Vele ($4400), Broncos Defense ($3300), Browns Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4300)
Must-Own: None