Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Overpriced for Expectation: Vikings Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8100), Aaron Jones ($6400), D’Andre Swift ($6100), Sam Darnold ($5900), DJ Moore ($5500), Jordan Addison ($5100), Keenan Allen ($4900), Roschon Johnson ($4600), Cam Akers ($4400), T.J. Hockenson ($4200), Bears Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Caleb Williams ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Rome Odunze ($4800)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Overpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8300), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7300), Jonathan Taylor ($7100), David Montgomery ($6700), Jared Goff ($6600), Josh Downs ($6200), Jameson Williams ($6000), Colts Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Anthony Richardson ($5600), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5300), Alec Pierce ($4900), Sam LaPorta ($4300)
Lottery Ticket: Tim Patrick ($3400)
Must-Own: None
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Overpriced for Expectation: Patriots Defense ($2700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Rhamondre Stevenson ($5900), Drake Maye ($5500), Jaylen Waddle ($5300), Raheem Mostert ($5000), Antonio Gibson ($4700), Jaylen Wright ($4500), DeMario Douglas ($4500), Dolphins Defense ($3100)
Underpriced for Expectation: De’Von Achane ($7500), Tyreek Hill ($7200), Tua Tagovailoa ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Jonnu Smith ($4100)
Must-Own: None, but I will be using someone from the Dolphins in every lineup
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Overpriced for Expectation: Wan’Dale Robinson ($5200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Malik Nabers ($7400), Baker Mayfield ($6100), Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($6000), Cade Otton ($5500), Bucky Irving ($5300), Devin Singletary ($4900), Sean Tucker ($4600), Darius Slayton ($4600), Sterling Shepard ($4200), Buccaneers Defense ($3300), Giants Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Tommy DeVito ($4000)
Must-Own: Mike Evans ($7000)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Overpriced for Expectation: Ezekiel Elliott ($4600)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($7300), Jayden Daniels ($7000), Terry McLaurin ($6800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5600), Austin Ekeler ($5600), Rico Dowdle ($5500), Cooper Rush ($5000), Dalvin Cook ($4200), Noah Brown ($4200), Jeremy McNichols ($4100), Jalen Tolbert ($4100), Commanders Defense ($3500), Cowboys Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jake Ferguson ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Ertz ($3800)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Overpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($6800), Chuba Hubbard ($6600), Travis Kelce ($5800), DeAndre Hopkins ($5400), Xavier Worthy ($5000), Xavier Legette ($5000), Bryce Young ($4600), Samaje Perine ($4300), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4300), Panthers Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($4700)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathon Brooks ($4800)
Must-Own: Kareem Hunt ($5700)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Overpriced for Expectation: Joe Mixon ($8000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7600), C.J. Stroud ($6500), Tank Dell ($6400), Tony Pollard ($5800), Will Levis ($4900), Dameon Pierce ($4900), Tyjae Spears ($4400), John Metchie III ($4400), Dare Ogunbowale ($4200), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4100), Texans Defense ($3600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Titans Defense ($2300)
Must-Own: None
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Overpriced for Expectation: Bo Nix ($6300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Courtland Sutton ($5800), Javonte Williams ($5200), Alexander Mattison ($5100), Gardner Minshew II ($4800), Audric Estime ($4700), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4500), Ameer Abdullah ($4300), Zamir White ($4200), Broncos Defense ($3200), Raiders Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Tre Tucker ($4000)
Must-Own: Brock Bowers ($6300)
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Overpriced for Expectation: Jordan Mason ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8500), Josh Jacobs ($6800), Jordan Love ($6700), Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6500), George Kittle ($6000), Jauan Jennings ($5600), Christian Watson ($5200), Ricky Pearsall ($4700), Romeo Doubs ($4600), Emanuel Wilson ($4400), Dontayvion Wicks ($4300), 49ers Defense ($3000), Packers Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jayden Reed ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Brandon Allen ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kenneth Walker III ($6900), DK Metcalf ($6600), James Conner ($6500), Kyler Murray ($6200), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6100), Tyler Lockett ($4800), Trey Benson ($4500), Michael Wilson ($4400), Emari Demercado ($4100), Seahawks Defense ($2900), Cardinals Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Geno Smith ($5700), Trey McBride ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Charbonnet ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Overpriced for Expectation: Eagles Defense ($2900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8200), Jalen Hurts ($7800), A.J. Brown ($7600), Kyren Williams ($7400), Cooper Kupp ($7300), Puka Nacua ($7100), Dallas Goedert ($4500), Blake Corum ($4400), Kenneth Gainwell ($4100), Demarcus Robinson ($4100), Rams Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Jahan Dotson ($3900)
Must-Own: None
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
Overpriced for Expectation: Ravens Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8000), Derrick Henry ($7700), Zay Flowers ($6700), Ladd McConkey ($6200), Justin Herbert ($5500), Quentin Johnston ($5000), Diontae Johnson ($4500), Gus Edwards ($4300), Rashod Bateman ($4300), Joshua Palmer ($4200), Mark Andrews ($4100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Justice Hill ($5100) if he plays
Lottery Ticket: Chargers Defense ($2700)
Must-Own: J.K. Dobbins ($6800)