Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Jacobs ($7100), Packers Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Love ($7000), D’Andre Swift ($6600), Jayden Reed ($6400), DJ Moore ($6000), Romeo Doubs ($5500), Keenan Allen ($5200), Christian Watson ($5200), Rome Odunze ($5000), Dontayvion Wicks ($5000), Roschon Johnson ($4600), Emanuel Wilson ($4500), Tucker Kraft ($4400), Cole Kmet ($4100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Caleb Williams ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Bears Defense ($2400)
Must-Own: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jared Goff ($6300), Travis Etienne Jr. ($6300), Brian Thomas Jr. ($6100), Jameson Williams ($5800), Tank Bigsby ($5600), Evan Engram ($5200), Gabe Davis ($4700), Sam LaPorta ($4300), Lions Defense ($3800), Jaguars Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jahmyr Gibbs ($7300), David Montgomery ($6500)
Lottery Ticket: Mac Jones ($4900)
Must-Own: None, but it’s hard to argue against one of the Lions’ running backs
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
Overpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8600), Aaron Jones ($6900), Tony Pollard ($6400), Sam Darnold ($6100), Jordan Addison ($5100), T.J. Hockenson ($4700), Cam Akers ($4600), Ty Chandler ($4500), Julius Chestnut ($4200), Vikings Defense ($3700), Titans Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($6200)
Lottery Ticket: Tyjae Spears ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($7400)
Fair Value for Expectations: De’Von Achane ($7200), Tua Tagovailoa ($6000), Jaylen Waddle ($5900), Raheem Mostert ($5800), Brock Bowers ($5800), Jakobi Meyers ($5600), Alexander Mattison ($5500), Jaylen Wright ($4900), Zamir White ($4500), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4400), Ameer Abdullah ($4100), Dolphins Defense ($3000), Raiders Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tre Tucker ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Gardner Minshew II ($5000)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
Overpriced for Expectation: Cooper Kupp ($7500), Puka Nacua ($7300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyren Williams ($7900), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6100), Matthew Stafford ($5800), Blake Corum ($5400), Demarcus Robinson ($5100), Antonio Gibson ($4800), Jordan Whittington ($4500), Tutu Atwell ($4200), JaMycal Hasty ($4100), Rams Defense ($3200), Patriots Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Drake Maye ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: DeMario Douglas ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Overpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8200), Jerry Jeudy ($5400), Cedric Tillman ($5300), Derek Carr ($5200), Mason Tipton ($4600), Taysom Hill ($4500), Jerome Ford ($4400), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4400), Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($4300), Elijah Moore ($4300), Jamaal Williams ($4200), Browns Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Jameis Winston ($5500)
Must-Own: Nick Chubb ($6000)
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Downs ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jonathan Taylor ($7600), Davante Adams ($7200), Garrett Wilson ($7100), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6000), Aaron Rodgers ($5500), Braelon Allen ($5500), Alec Pierce ($5400), Tyler Goodson ($4900), Adonai Mitchell ($4400), Trey Sermon ($4300), Jets Defense ($2800), Colts Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Breece Hall ($7500)
Lottery Ticket: Anthony Richardson ($5300)
Must-Own: None
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overpriced for Expectation: George Pickens ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8000), Zay Flowers ($6900), Najee Harris ($6200), Russell Wilson ($5900), Jaylen Warren ($5300), Justice Hill ($5200), Rashod Bateman ($4600), Mark Andrews ($4600), Mike Williams ($4100), Ravens Defense ($3400), Steelers Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Pat Freiermuth ($4200)
Lottery Ticket: Diontae Johnson ($4800)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($8100)
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
Overpriced for Expectation: Bijan Robinson ($7800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Drake London ($6700), Darnell Mooney ($6600), Kirk Cousins ($6500), Bo Nix ($6200), Courtland Sutton ($5900), Javonte Williams ($5700), Tyler Allgeier ($5300), Kyle Pitts ($4800), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4700), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4200), Falcons Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Broncos Defense ($2900)
Lottery Ticket: Audric Estime ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Overpriced for Expectation: Isaac Guerendo ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8300), Kenneth Walker III ($7000), Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6800), Brock Purdy ($6600), DK Metcalf ($6500), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6500), George Kittle ($6000), Jordan Mason ($5900), Tyler Lockett ($5800), Jauan Jennings ($5300), Zach Charbonnet ($5100), 49ers Defense ($3600), Seahawks Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Geno Smith ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Ricky Pearsall ($4900)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($7800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($6800), James Cook ($6800), Kareem Hunt ($6700), Khalil Shakir ($6300), Travis Kelce ($6300), Amari Cooper ($5700), DeAndre Hopkins ($5700), Ray Davis ($5400), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5000), Dalton Kincaid ($5000), Samaje Perine ($4600), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4500), Ty Johnson ($4300), Bills Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Xavier Worthy ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Chiefs Defense ($3100)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers
Overpriced for Expectation: Joe Burrow ($7200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8800), J.K. Dobbins ($7000), Chase Brown ($6500), Tee Higgins ($6300), Ladd McConkey ($6200), Quentin Johnston ($5200), Gus Edwards ($5000), Joshua Palmer ($4800), Kimani Vidal ($4700), Mike Gesicki ($4100), Chargers Defense ($3100), Bengals Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Justin Herbert ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Will Dissly ($3300)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
Overpriced for Expectation: Nico Collins ($7800), Texans Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Joe Mixon ($8000), Tank Dell ($6800), C.J. Stroud ($6700), Rico Dowdle ($6000), Jake Ferguson ($4700), Ezekiel Elliott ($4600), Jalen Tolbert ($4600), Dalvin Cook ($4500), Dameon Pierce ($4400), John Metchie III ($4400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cooper Rush ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: Cowboys Defense ($2400)
Must-Own: CeeDee Lamb ($8300)