Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 10 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Overpriced for Expectation: Drake Maye ($5800)
Fair Value for Expectations: D’Andre Swift ($6500), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6400), DJ Moore ($6300), Keenan Allen ($5400), Rome Odunze ($5200), Antonio Gibson ($4900), DeMario Douglas ($4400), Cole Kmet ($4300), JaMycal Hasty ($4100), Bears Defense ($3000), Patriots Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Caleb Williams ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Roschon Johnson ($4600)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Overpriced for Expectation: Bills Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($7700), James Cook ($7000), Josh Downs ($6200), Khalil Shakir ($6000), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6000), Amari Cooper ($5800), Joe Flacco ($5500), Ray Davis ($5500), Tyler Goodson ($4900), Ty Johnson ($4500), Trey Sermon ($4500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($4900), Alec Pierce ($4900) especially if Pittman is out
Lottery Ticket: Colts Defense ($2600)
Must-Own: Jonathan Taylor ($7500)
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Overpriced for Expectation: Kareem Hunt ($6600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($6600), Xavier Worthy ($6100), Bo Nix ($6000), Javonte Williams ($6000), Travis Kelce ($6000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5000), Samaje Perine ($4800), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4500), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4500), Chiefs Defense ($3600), Broncos Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Courtland Sutton ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: DeAndre Hopkins ($5300)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Overpriced for Expectation: Falcons Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7700), Kirk Cousins ($6700), Drake London ($6700), Darnell Mooney ($6500), Chris Olave ($6100), Tyler Allgeier ($5200), Kyle Pitts ($4800), Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($4600), Mason Tipton ($4500), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4300), Jamaal Williams ($4100), Saints Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Derek Carr ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Tayson Hill ($4000)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($8100)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overpriced for Expectation: Isaac Guerendo ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Mason ($7400), Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6900), Brock Purdy ($6500), Baker Mayfield ($6400), Rachaad White ($5900), George Kittle ($5800), Bucky Irving ($5700), Jauan Jennings ($5100), Sean Tucker ($4700), Patrick Taylor Jr. ($4400), Ricky Pearsall ($4400), Jalen McMillan ($4200), Sterling Shepard ($4100), 49ers Defense ($3300), Buccaneers Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cade Otton ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Christian McCaffrey ($8000)
Must-Own: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders
Overpriced for Expectation: Commanders Defense ($3100), Steelers Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Terry McLaurin ($7300), George Pickens ($6800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6300), Najee Harris ($6200), Russell Wilson ($5900), Austin Ekeler ($5800), Jaylen Warren ($5300), Jeremy McNichols ($4400), Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4300), Noah Brown ($4300), Pat Freiermuth ($4200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jayden Daniels ($7500), Zach Ertz ($3800)
Lottery Ticket: Cordarrelle Patterson ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overpriced for Expectation: Vikings Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8800), Aaron Jones ($6700), Brian Thomas Jr. ($6600), Sam Darnold ($6200), Tank Bigsby ($5700), Jordan Addison ($5300), Evan Engram ($5300), Gabe Davis ($5000), Cam Akers ($4700), T.J. Hockenson ($4700), Ty Chandler ($4200), D’Ernest Johnson ($4200), Jalen Nailor ($4200), Jaguars Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne Jr. ($5800) if healthy
Lottery Ticket: Mac Jones ($4400)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($6900)
Fair Value for Expectations: J.K. Dobbins ($7200), Ladd McConkey ($5900), Calvin Ridley ($5700), Justin Herbert ($5200), Kimani Vidal ($5200), Will Levis ($4900), Quentin Johnston ($4900), Joshua Palmer ($4800), Chargers Defense ($3800), Titans Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyjae Spears ($4700)
Lottery Ticket: Julius Chestnut ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Overpriced for Expectation: Ezekiel Elliott ($5100), Dalvin Cook ($5000)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($8600), Saquon Barkley ($8300), A.J. Brown ($8200), Jalen Hurts ($7800), DeVonta Smith ($7800), Rico Dowdle ($6100), Jalen Tolbert ($5100), Jake Ferguson ($5000), Jahan Dotson ($4700), Dallas Goedert ($4500), Kenneth Gainwell ($4100), Eagles Defense ($3500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cooper Rush ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Cowboys Defense ($2400)
Must-Own: None
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals
Overpriced for Expectation: Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($7600), Garrett Wilson ($7200), Davante Adams ($7000), James Conner ($6500), Kyler Murray ($6300), Trey McBride ($5700), Braelon Allen ($5500), Trey Benson ($4800), Michael Wilson ($4600), Cardinals Defense ($2900), Jets Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Rodgers ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Emari Demercado ($4600)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
Overpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($3100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8100), Nico Collins ($7900), Tank Dell ($7400), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7100), C.J. Stroud ($6800), David Montgomery ($6600), Jared Goff ($6300), Sam LaPorta ($4600), Dameon Pierce ($4300), Robert Woods ($4100), Texans Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jameson Williams ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Dalton Schultz ($4100)
Must-Own: Joe Mixon ($7700)
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams
Overpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($5700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyren Williams ($7800), Cooper Kupp ($7600), De’Von Achane ($7200), Puka Nacua ($7100), Jaylen Waddle ($5700), Demarcus Robinson ($5100), Jordan Whittington ($4500), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4400), Blake Corum ($4200), Tutu Atwell ($4200), Rams Defense ($2800), Dolphins Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($6200)
Lottery Ticket: Raheem Mostert ($5900)
Must-Own: Tyreek Hill ($7500)