Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 1 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Overpriced for Expectation: Bijan Robinson ($7700), Kirk Cousins ($6100), Najee Harris ($5600), Jaylen Warren ($5600), Russell Wilson ($5400), Falcons Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Drake London ($6000), George Pickens ($5700), Tyler Allgeier ($5000), Kyle Pitts ($4600), Pat Freiermuth ($4400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Darnell Mooney ($4200), Steelers Defense ($2900)
Lottery Ticket: Cordarrelle Patterson ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8000), Trey Benson ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7200), James Cook ($6900), James Conner ($6200), Trey McBride ($6100), Dalton Kincaid ($5800), Keon Coleman ($5000), Curtis Samuel ($4900), Ty Johnson ($4600), Michael Wilson ($4300), Bills Defense ($3000), Cardinals Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyler Murray ($6400)
Lottery Ticket: Greg Dortch ($3900)
Must-Own: Khalil Shakir ($5100)
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Overpriced for Expectation: Bears Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($6900), DJ Moore ($6500), D’Andre Swift ($6000), Caleb Williams ($5900), DeAndre Hopkins ($5700), Will Levis ($5300), Tyjae Spears ($5100), Tyler Boyd ($4500), Roschon Johnson ($4400), Cole Kmet ($4100), Titans Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Herbert ($5200)
Must-Own: Tony Pollard ($5900)
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Overpriced for Expectation: Joe Burrow ($6500), Zack Moss ($5800), Bengals Defense ($3800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7800), Tee Higgins ($6100), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5900), Chase Brown ($5000), Antonio Gibson ($4900), DeMario Douglas ($4800), Hunter Henry ($4200), Patriots Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jacoby Brissett ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Trenton Irwin ($3900)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7500), Nico Collins ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6800), Joe Mixon ($6600), Anthony Richardson ($6300), Tank Dell ($5500), Dalton Schultz ($4900), Josh Downs ($4800), Trey Sermon ($4500), Texans Defense ($2700), Colts Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Stefon Diggs ($6700)
Lottery Ticket: Dameon Pierce ($4600)
Must-Own: Jonathan Taylor ($7800)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($8700), Travis Etienne Jr. ($7200), Tua Tagovailoa ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: De’Von Achane ($6800), Raheem Mostert ($6400), Jaylen Waddle ($6300), Trevor Lawrence ($6200), Evan Engram ($5500), Tank Bigsby ($5000), Brian Thomas Jr. ($4700), Dolphins Defense ($3200), Jaguars Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Christian Kirk ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Gabe Davis ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Overpriced for Expectation: Taysom Hill ($4300), Saints Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($6700), Chris Olave ($6600), Derek Carr ($5300), Chuba Hubbard ($5300), Adam Thielen ($5200), Jamaal Williams ($4800), Jake Haener ($4600), Miles Sanders ($4500), Panthers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Diontae Johnson ($5300), Bryce Young ($5200), Rashid Shaheed ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: Xavier Legette ($4600)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Overpriced for Expectation: Ty Chandler ($5400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8400), Aaron Jones ($6500), Malik Nabers ($5900), Devin Singletary ($5700), Daniel Jones ($5400), Jordan Addison ($5300), Sam Darnold ($5200), Vikings Defense ($3600), Giants Defense ($3300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Darius Slayton ($4400), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Eric Gray ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Overpriced for Expectation: Zamir White ($5700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($7600), Justin Herbert ($5800), Gardner Minshew II ($5300), Joshua Palmer ($5200), Jakobi Meyers ($5000), Alexander Mattison ($4800), Ladd McConkey ($4700), Brock Bowers ($4500), Quentin Johnston ($4100), Chargers Defense ($2900), Raiders Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gus Edwards ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: J.K. Dobbins ($4900)
Must-Own: None
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Overpriced for Expectation: Zach Charbonnet ($5500), Seahawks Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($6200), Kenneth Walker III ($6100), Geno Smith ($5500), Javonte Williams ($5500), Tyler Lockett ($5400), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4900), Josh Reynolds ($4200), Broncos Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Courtland Sutton ($5600), Bo Nix ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
Overpriced for Expectation: CeeDee Lamb ($8900), Dak Prescott ($7100), Cowboys Defense ($3900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amari Cooper ($6400), Deshaun Watson ($6000), Ezekiel Elliott ($5800), David Njoku ($5600), Brandin Cooks ($5400), Jake Ferguson ($5200), D’Onta Foreman ($4900), Rico Dowdle ($4600), Deuce Vaughn ($4200), Browns Defense ($3100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerome Ford ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Jerry Jeudy ($5100)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($7300), Rachaad White ($6300), Buccaneers Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($6000), Chris Godwin ($5800), Baker Mayfield ($5600), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Terry McLaurin ($5600), Commanders Defense ($2500)
Lottery Ticket: Bucky Irving ($4800)
Must-Own: Jayden Daniels ($5700)
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
Overpriced for Expectation: Kyren Williams ($6800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8200), Puka Nacua ($7400), Jared Goff ($6400), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6400), Sam LaPorta ($6300), David Montgomery ($6100), Jameson Williams ($4400), Craig Reynolds ($4100), Lions Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($6200), Blake Corum ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Rams Defense ($2500)
Must-Own: Cooper Kupp ($7200)
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
Overpriced for Expectation: Brandon Aiyuk ($6600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8600), Breece Hall ($7500), Garrett Wilson ($6900), Brock Purdy ($6000), Mike Williams ($5600), Jordan Mason ($4600), Braelon Allen ($4500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Rodgers ($5600), George Kittle ($5400), Tyler Conklin ($3000)
Lottery Ticket: Xavier Gipson ($3200)
Must-Own: Deebo Samuel, Sr. ($7000)