After a packed schedule of games with no teams on a bye — and no international matchup — last week, we move back to a significantly lower number of contests. There are definitely some worth targeting, however, and the value we can find in one matchup will allow us to overpay — willingly — elsewhere.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 9 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyler Allgeier ($4,700), Falcons Defense ($3,700), and Vikings Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($6,100), Jordan Addison ($6,000), Alexander Mattison ($5,400), T.J. Hockenson ($5,200), Cam Akers ($4,800), K.J. Osborn ($4,600), Kyle Pitts ($4,100), Mack Hollins ($3,500), and Jonnu Smith ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Taylor Heinicke ($5,000) and Van Jefferson ($3,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jaren Hall ($4,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cam Akers ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($6,100), Jordan Addison ($6,000), Alexander Mattison ($5,400), Desmond Ridder ($4,800), Tyler Allgeier ($4,700), K.J. Osborn ($4,600), Kyle Pitts ($4,100), Falcons Defense ($3,700), Vikings Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: T.J. Hockenson ($5,200),
Lottery Ticket: Jaren Hall ($4,800)
Must-Own: None, but Mattison is close since Minnesota likely needs to lean on the run
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kyler Murray ($5,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amari Cooper ($6,100), Deshaun Watson ($5,400), Marquise Brown ($5,400), Jerome Ford ($5,300), Keaontay Ingram ($4,300), Browns Defense ($4,200), Elijah Moore ($3,900), David Njoku ($3,800), and Trey McBride ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kareem Hunt ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Browns Defense ($4,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amari Cooper ($6,100), Kyler Murray ($5,900) if he starts, Kareem Hunt ($5,500), Malcolm Brown ($5,400), Jerome Ford ($5,300), Pierre Strong, Jr. ($4,400), Keaontay Ingram ($4,300), David Njoku ($3,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deshaun Watson ($5,400) and Cardinals Defense ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($7,400), Matthew Stafford ($6,300), Jordan Love ($5,500), and A.J. Dillon ($4,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($8,500), Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,100), Romeo Doubs ($5,100), Christian Watson ($4,900), Tutu Atwell ($4,200), Jayden Reed ($3,600), Luke Musgrave ($3,300), Packers Defense ($2,800), and Rams Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6,200)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Higbee ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($7,400), Jordan Love ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($8,500), Matthew Stafford ($6,300) if he plays, Aaron Jones ($6,200), Darrell Henderson, Jr. ($5,100), Romeo Doubs ($5,100), A.J. Dillon ($4,900), Royce Freeman ($4,600), Tyler Higbee ($3,200), Packers Defense ($2,800), Rams Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Christian Watson ($4,900) and Tutu Atwell ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Ben Skowronek ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Commanders Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Sam Howell ($5,800), Terry McLaurin ($5,600), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,300), Jahan Dotson ($5,000), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,400), Logan Thomas ($3,500), Hunter Henry ($3,600), Jamison Crowder ($3,400), Juju Smith-Schuster ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mac Jones ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Mike Gesicki ($2,600)
Must-Own: Demario Douglas ($4,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Commanders Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Sam Howell ($5,800), Terry McLaurin ($5,600), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Brian Robinson, Jr. ($5,300), Jahan Dotson ($5,000), Mac Jones ($4,900), Antonio Gibson ($4,500), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patriots Defense ($2,900)
Lottery Ticket: Demario Douglas ($4,000)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($6,300) and Saints Defense ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8,100), D.J. Moore ($5,900), Derek Carr ($5,700), D’Onta Foreman ($5,700), Tyson Bagent ($4,900), Michael Thomas ($4,700), Roschon Johnson ($4,500), Cole Kmet ($3,900), Darnell Mooney ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,500)
Lottery Ticket: Taysom Hill ($4,700)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D’Onta Foreman ($5,700) and Saints Defense ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8,100), Chris Olave ($6,300), D.J. Moore ($5,900), Derek Carr ($5,700), Tyson Bagent ($4,900) if he starts, Taysom Hill ($4,700), Roschon Johnson ($4,500), Cole Kmet ($3,900), Bears Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Michael Thomas ($4,700), Rashid Shaheed ($4,500)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($6,900), Mark Andrews ($6,800), Geno Smith ($6,000), Zach Charbonnet ($4,300), and Ravens Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8,200), Kenneth Walker ($7,000), Tyler Lockett ($6,200), Gus Edwards ($5,900), Zay Flowers ($5,700), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300),
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham Jr. ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mark Andrews ($6,800) and Ravens Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8,200), Kenneth Walker III ($7,000), DK Metcalf ($6,900), Tyler Lockett ($6,200), Geno Smith ($6,000), Gus Edwards ($5,900), Zay Flowers ($5,700), Seahawks Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($3,800)
Must-Own: None, but I am definitely going to use Walker or Geno Smith with a pass-catcher in some lineups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($7,300), Chris Godwin ($7,000), C.J. Stroud ($6,200), Buccaneers Defense ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($5,800), Rachaad White ($5,600), Tank Dell ($5,300), Baker Mayfield ($5,200), Dalton Schultz ($4,200), Noah Brown ($3,100), and Cade Otton ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Devin Singletary ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Chase Edmonds ($4,100)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($5,600) and Buccaneers Defense ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,300), Chris Godwin ($7,000), C.J. Stroud ($6,200), Nico Collins ($5,800), Tank Dell ($5,300), Baker Mayfield ($5,200), Dalton Schultz ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Texans Defense ($3,000)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,000)
Must-Own: Devin Singletary ($4,300)
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,600), Panthers Defense ($3,500), and Colts Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Adam Thielen ($7,500), Zack Moss ($5,800), Gardner Minshew ($5,200), Josh Downs ($5,200) if healthy, Bryce Young ($5,100), Chuba Hubbard ($5,000), D.J. Chark Jr. ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,400)
Must-Own: Jonathan Taylor ($6,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Downs ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Adam Thielen ($7,500), Michael Pittman, Jr. ($6,600), Jonathan Taylor ($6,400), Zack Moss ($5,800), Gardner Minshew II ($5,200), Miles Sanders ($4,500), Panthers Defense ($3,500), Colts Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bryce Young ($5,100) and Chuba Hubbard ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($6,400) and Raiders Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($6,900), Daniel Jones ($5,600), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($7,900), Aidan O’Connell ($4,500)
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3,000)
Must-Own: Davante Adams ($8,100)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($8,100) and Raiders Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($7,900), Josh Jacobs ($6,900), Jakobi Meyers ($6,400), Daniel Jones ($5,600), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,100), Zamir White ($4,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Giants Defense ($2,300)
Lottery Ticket: Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Gainwell ($4,500), Cowboys Defense ($3,900), and Eagles Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,600), CeeDee Lamb ($8,200), Jalen Hurts ($8,000), DeVonta Smith ($7,100), Tony Pollard ($6,800), D’Andre Swift ($6,600), Dallas Goedert ($4,800), Jake Ferguson ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($6,500)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Gallup ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($6,800) and D’Andre Swift ($6,600), Cowboys Defense ($3,900), and Eagles Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,600), CeeDee Lamb ($8,200), Jalen hurts ($8,000), Devonta Smith ($7,100), Dallas Goedert ($4,800), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,500), Brandin Cooks ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($6,500)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Gallup ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($6,000), Joe Mixon ($5,900), and Bills Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($8,500), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Josh Allen ($7,800), Gabe Davis ($5,700), Tee Higgins ($5,500), Tyler Boyd ($4,600), Dalton Kincaid ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Joe Burrow ($6,200)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Stefon Diggs ($8,500) and James Cook ($6,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Josh Allen ($7,800), Joe Burrow ($6,200), Joe Mixon ($5,900), Gabe Davis ($5,700), Tee Higgins ($5,500), Tyler Boyd ($4,600), Dalton Kincaid ($4,200), Bills Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bengals Defense ($2,500)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3,300)
Must-Own: Joe Burrow ($6,200)
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joshua Palmer ($5,000) injury concerns, and Chargers Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,100), Justin Herbert ($7,500), Garrett Wilson ($6,300), Zach Wilson ($4,900), Gerald Everett ($3,700), Allen Lazard ($3,500), Donald Parham Jr. ($3,200), Derius Davis ($3,000), and Tyler Conklin ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Breece Hall ($6,300)
Lottery Ticket: Quentin Johnston ($3,200)
Must-Own: Keenan Allen ($8,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($8,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($8,200), Justin Herbert ($7,500), Garrett WIlson ($6,300), Joshua Kelley ($4,600), Chargers Defense ($3,600), Jets Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zach Wilson ($4,900), Gerald Everett ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: Allen Lazard ($3,500)
Must-Own: Breece Hall ($6,300)