We have our first full slate of games in weeks as no teams are on a bye. This obviously gives us plenty of places to look for our targets, and there is value to be found in numerous games.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 8 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($7,500), Matthew Stafford ($6,600), and Cowboys Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($9,000), Puka Nacua ($7,900), CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), Dak Prescott ($6,100), Brandin Cooks ($4,600), Tutu Atwell ($4,400), Jake Ferguson ($3,600), Michael Gallup ($3,400), Tyler Higbee ($3,300), and Rams Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Darrell Henderson Jr. ($4,800)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($7,500) and Cowboys Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($9,000), Puka Nacua ($7,900), CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), Matthew Stafford ($6,600), Dak Prescott ($6,100), Tutu Atwell ($4,400), Jake Ferguson ($3,600), Michael Gallup ($3,400), Tyler Higbee ($3,300), and Rams Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Darrell Henderson Jr. ($4,800) and Brandin Cooks ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: KaVontae Turpin ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kirk Cousins ($6,900), Alexander Mattison ($5,600), and A.J. Dillon ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Aaron Jones ($6,400), T.J. Hockenson ($6,200), Jordan Love ($5,700), Jordan Addison ($5,700), Christian Watson ($5,100), Romeo Doubs ($4,900), K.J. Osborn ($4,700), Jayden Reed ($3,700), Luke Musgrave ($3,500), Packers Defense ($2,700), and Vikings Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brandon Powell ($3,200)
Lottery Ticket: Cam Akers ($4,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kirk Cousins ($6,900), Alexander Mattison ($5,600), and Cam Akers ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Aaron Jones ($6,400), T.J. Hockenson ($6,200), Jordan Love ($5,700), Jordan Addison ($5,700), A.J. Dillon ($5,100), Christian Watson ($5,100), Romeo Doubs ($4,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: K.J. Osborn ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Josiah Deguara ($2,800)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Derrick Henry ($7,600), Tyler Allgeier ($5,000), and Titans Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: DeAndre Hopkins ($5,500), Desmond Ridder ($5,100), Drake London ($5,100), Tyjae Spears ($4,700), Treylon Burks ($3,900), Kyle Pitts ($3,800), Jonnu Smith ($3,500), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,300), and Falcons Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Will Levis ($4,400)
Must-Own: Bijan Robinson ($6,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Malik Willis ($4,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($6,000), DeAndre Hopkins ($5,500), Desmond Ridder ($5,100), Drake London ($5,100), Tyler Allgeier ($5,000), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,700), Titans Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($4,400), Treylon Burks ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Van Jefferson ($3,200)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($7,600)
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,500), Zack Moss ($5,700), Derek Carr ($5,500), Gardner Minshew II ($5,400), and Saints Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($7,300), Chris Olave ($6,400), Michael Thomas ($4,900), Josh Downs ($4,800), Rashid Shaheed ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Jonathan Taylor ($6,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman, Jr. ($6,500), Colts Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($7,300), Chris Olave ($6,400), Jonathan Taylor ($6,200), Derek Carr ($5,500), Gardner Minshew II ($5,400), Michael Thomas ($4,900), Josh Downs ($4,800), Saints Defense ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Alec Pierce ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($9,500), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700), Jaylen Waddle ($7,500), Dolphins Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Raheem Mostert ($7,700), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Mac Jones ($5,000), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,600), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,500), Hunter Henry ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kendrick Bourne ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($9,500), Dolphins Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700), Raheem Mostert ($7,700), Jaylen Waddle ($7,500), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Kendrick Bourne ($4,700), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mac Jones ($5,000) and Demario Douglas ($3,200)
Lottery Ticket: Patriots Defense ($2,000)
Must-Own: None
New York Jets at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyrod Taylor ($5,300), Jets Defense ($4,000), and Giants Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8,000), Garrett Wilson ($6,300), Darren Waller ($5,200), Zach Wilson ($4,800), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700), Tyler Conklin ($3,200), and Jalin Hyatt ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Breece Hall ($5,900)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($8,000), Dalvin Cook ($4,600), and Giants Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Garrett Wilson ($6,300), Tyrod Taylor ($5,300), Darren Waller ($5,200), Zach Wilson ($4,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700), Isaiah Hodgins ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3,100)
Must-Own: Breece Hall ($5,900)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Trevor Lawrence ($6,200) and Najee Harris ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200), Christian Kirk ($5,900), Calvin Ridley ($5,800), George Pickens ($5,600), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Jaylen Warren ($4,900), Evan Engram ($4,500), Steelers Defense ($2,900), Jaguars Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenny Pickett ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Najee Harris ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne, Jr. ($7,200), Trevor Lawrence ($6,200), Christian Kirk ($5,900), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Jaylen Warren ($4,900), Evan Engram ($4,500), Tank Bigsby ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($5,800), George Pickens ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: Allen Robinson II ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,400) and Eagles Defense ($4,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($8,200), A.J. Brown ($8,000), DeVonta Smith ($6,700), D’Andre Swift ($6,300), Terry McLaurin ($5,300), Sam Howell ($5,200), Dallas Goedert ($4,600), Jahan Dotson ($4,500), Curtis Samuel ($4,200), Logan Thomas ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($8,200), A.J. Brown ($8,000), and Eagles Defense ($4,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: DeVonta Smith ($6,700), D’Andre Swift ($6,300), Dallas Goedert ($4,600), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,500), Jahan Dotson ($4,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson, Jr. ($5,400), Terry McLaurin ($5,300), and Sam Howell ($5,200)
Lottery Ticket: Commanders Defense ($2,300)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($6,300), Dameon Pierce ($5,300), and Texans Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Adam Thielen ($6,600), Nico Collins ($5,500), Bryce Young ($5,100), Miles Sanders ($4,900), Tank Dell ($4,900), Chuba Hubbard ($4,800), Dalton Schultz ($3,900), D.J. Chark Jr. ($3,800), and Panthers Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Noah Brown ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Texans Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Adam Thielen ($6,600), C.J. Stroud ($6,300), Nico Collins ($5,500), Dameon Pierce ($5,300), Tank Dell ($4,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bryce Young ($5,100), Miles Sanders ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,400) and John Metchie III ($3,000)
Must-Own: None, but there is nice value with Carolina’s players
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($6,800), Tyler Lockett ($6,000), Geno Smith ($5,900), and Seahawks Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kenneth Walker III ($7,000), Amari Cooper ($6,200), Jerome Ford ($5,300) depending on his health, Kareem Hunt ($5,200), P.J. Walker ($4,800), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300), Elijah Moore ($4,100), David Njoku ($3,600), and Browns Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Browns Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kenneth Walker III ($7,000), DK Metcalf ($6,800), Amari Cooper ($6,200), Tyler Lockett ($6,000), Geno Smith ($5,900), Jerome Ford ($5,300), P.J. Walker ($4,800), Elijah Moore ($4,100), Seahawks Defense ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kareem Hunt ($5,200) if Ford is out
Lottery Ticket: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($8,400), Travis Kelce ($8,400), Jerry Jeudy ($5,400), Russell Wilson ($5,300), Courtland Sutton ($5,300), Javonte Williams ($5,200), Rashee Rice ($5,000), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,700), Jerrick McKinnon ($4,600), and Kadarius Toney ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Isiah Pacheco ($6,100)
Lottery Ticket: Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) and Travis Kelce ($8,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Isiah Pacheco ($6,100), Jerry Jeudy ($5,400), Russell Wilson ($5,300), Courtland Sutton ($5,300), Javonte Williams ($5,200), Rashee Rice ($5,000), Kadarius Toney ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Marvin Mims, Jr. ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joshua Dobbs ($5,200) and Ravens Defense ($4,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8,100), Mark Andrews ($6,400), Zay Flowers ($5,600), Gus Edwards ($5,500), Marquise Brown ($5,200), Emari Demercado ($4,800), Justice HIll ($4,700), Keaontay Ingram ($4,500), and Michael Wilson ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Trey McBride ($2,800)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham Jr. ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mark Andrews ($6,400) and Joshua Dobbs ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8,100), Zay Flowers ($5,600), Gus Edwards ($5,500), Malcolm Brown ($5,200), Emari Demercado ($4,800), Ravens Defense ($4,200), and Rondale Moore ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Justice Hill ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($5,900), Joe Mixon ($5,800), and 49ers Defense ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,200), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000), Joe Burrow ($6,000), Brock Purdy ($5,600), George Kittle ($5,400), and Tyler Boyd ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Jauan Jennings ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) and 49ers Defense ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,200), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000), Joe Burrow ($6,000), Tee Higgins ($5,900), Joe Mixon ($5,800), Brock Purdy ($5,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: George Kittle ($5,400)
Lottery Ticket: Jauan Jennings ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chargers Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($8,300), Justin Herbert ($7,600), D’Onta Foreman ($5,300), Roschon Johnson ($5,000), Joshua Kelley ($4,900), Joshua Palmer ($4,900) if active, Cole Kmet ($4,000), Gerald Everett ($3,500), Darnell Mooney ($3,300), and Donald Parham Jr. ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: DJ Moore ($5,900) and Tyson Bagent ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: Quentin Johnston ($3,400) especially if Palmer is active
Must-Own: Austin Ekeler ($8,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D’Onta Foreman ($5,300) and Chargers Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,000), Justin Herbert ($7,600), D.J. Moore ($5,900), Tyson Bagent ($5,100), Roschon Johnson ($5,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gerald Everett ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Quentin Johnston ($3,400)
Must-Own: Keenan Allen ($8,300),
Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200) and Sam LaPorta ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800), Davante Adams ($7,700), Josh Jacobs ($7,100), Jared Goff ($6,500), Jakobi Meyers ($5,700), Josh Reynolds ($4,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($3,100)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,600)
Must-Own: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,500)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($5,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800), Davante Adams ($7,700), Josh Jacobs ($7,100), David Montgomery ($6,800) if he plays, Jared Goff ($6,500), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200), Lions Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,500) if Montgomery is out, Sam LaPorta ($5,100) and Josh Reynolds ($4,100)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,600)
Must-Own: None, but I am sure I’ll have plenty of players from Detroit in the bulk of my lineups