We are without a game in London for the first time in weeks, but we also have a much lighter schedule than usual with the number of teams on byes. As always, this doesn’t stand in the way of finding value.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 7 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($8,200), DJ Moore ($6,500), Jakobi Meyers ($6,200), and Raiders Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($7,400), Brian Hoyer ($4,900), Tyson Bagent ($4,900), Cole Kmet ($4,200), and Bears Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: D’Onta Foreman ($4,800)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($6,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($8,200), Josh Jacobs ($7,400), DJ Moore ($6,500), Raiders Defense ($3,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyson Bagent ($4,900), Brian Hoyer ($4,900), D’Onta Foreman ($4,800), Zamir White ($4,700), Bears Defense ($2,900)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($3,500)
Must-Own: None, but the salaries are so low in this game that it is enticing
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,600), Zack Moss ($6,200), Gardner Minshew II ($5,200), and Colts Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jonathan Taylor ($6,500), Amari Cooper ($6,100), Deshaun Watson ($5,700), Kareem Hunt ($5,000), Josh Downs ($4,500), Elijah Moore ($4,200), David Njoku ($3,400), and Browns Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerome Ford ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Zack Moss ($6,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman, Jr. ($6,600), Jonathan Taylor ($6,500), Amari Cooper ($6,100), Gardner Minshew II ($5,200), Josh Downs ($4,500), Elijah Moore ($4,200), Colts Defense ($3,400), Browns Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deshaun Watson ($5,700), Jerome Ford ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: Donovan Peoples-Jones ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8,200), Bills Defense ($4,200), and Hunter Henry ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($8,900), Gabe Davis ($5,900), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600), Mac Jones ($4,900), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,800), Latavius Murray ($4,400), Dalton Kincaid ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($6,400) and Kendrick Bourne ($4,400)
Lottery Ticket: Patriots Defense ($2,100)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Stefon Diggs ($8,900), Josh Allen ($8,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Cook ($6,400), Gabe Davis ($5,900), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600), Latavius Murray ($4,400), Kendrick Bourne ($4,400), Bills Defense ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ezekiel Elliott ($4,800)
Lottery Ticket: Patriots Defense ($2,100)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Commanders Defense ($3,500) and Giants Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800), Daniel Jones ($5,600) if active or Tyrod Taylor ($5,100), Darren Waller ($5,000), Antonio Gibson ($4,700), Jahan Dotson ($4,600), Curtis Samuel ($4,000), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,800), and Darius Slayton ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Sam Howell ($5,500) and Terry McLaurin ($5,400)
Lottery Ticket: Logan Thomas ($3,500) and Jalin Hyatt ($3,000)
Must-Own: Saquon Barkley ($8,100)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Darren Waller ($5,000) and Matt Breida ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8,100), Daniel Jones ($5,600) if he plays, Sam Howell ($5,500), Terry McLaurin ($5,400), Antonio Gibson ($4,700), Jahan Dotson($4,600), Commanders Defense ($3,500),Giants Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson, Jr. ($5,800) and Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100)
Lottery Ticket: Wandale Robinson ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($7,100), Chris Godwin ($6,900), Buccaneers Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7,300), Baker Mayfield ($5,200), Desmond Ridder ($5,200), Rachaad White ($5,100), Drake London ($5,100), Tyler Allgeier ($4,500), Kyle PItts ($4,000), Trey Palmer ($3,600), Jonnu Smith ($3,600), and Falcons Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Van Jefferson ($3,500)
Must-Own:
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($7,100), Chris Godwin ($6,900), Buccaneers Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7,300), Baker Mayfield ($5,300), Desmond Ridder ($5,200), Rachaad White ($5,100), Drake London ($5,100), Tyler Allgeier ($4,500), Kyle Pitts ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Falcons Defense ($2,800)
Lottery Ticket: Mack Hollins ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Lamar Jackson ($7,600) and Sam LaPorta ($5,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000),Jared Goff ($6,400), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300), Zay Flowers ($5,700), Mark Andrews ($5,700), Gus Edwards ($4,800), Josh Reynolds ($4,300), Odell Beckham Jr. ($3,900), Lions Defense ($2,700), and Ravens Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jameson Williams ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: Nelson Agholor ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jared Goff ($6,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000), Lamar Jackson ($7,600), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300), Mark Andrews ($5,700), Sam LaPorta ($5,300), Justice Hill ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($5.700)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Najee Harris ($5,200) and Rams Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($9,500), Puka Nucua ($7,600), Matthew Stafford ($6,500), Kenny Pickett ($5,000), Jaylen Warren ($5,000), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Tutu Atwell ($4,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: George Pickens ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: Myles Gaskin ($4,400) or Zach Evans ($4,000)
Must-Own: None, but I will be paying for a Rams wide receiver or gambling on a Rams running back in every lineup I make this week
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($7,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($9,500), Matthew Stafford ($6,500), George Pickens ($5,500), Najee Harris ($5,200), Kenny Pickett ($5,000), Jaylen Warren ($5,000), Tutu Atwell ($4,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zach Evans ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Royce Freeman ($4,000)
Must-Own: None, but it’s hard to not use Evans at his salary
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Seahawks Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($6,800), Geno Smith ($6,000), Tyler Lockett ($6,000), Joshua Dobbs ($5,300), Marquise Brown ($5,300), Keaontay Ingran ($4,900), Rondale Moore ($3,500), Zach Ertz ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Walker III ($7,000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,900), and Michael Wilson ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None, but this feels like the time that the highly touted rookie, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to pop.
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($6,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kenneth Walker III ($7,000), Geno Smith ($6,000), Tyler Lockett ($6,000), Joshua Dobbs ($5,300), Malcolm Brown ($5,300), Emari Demercado ($4,800), Seahawks Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Keaontay Ingram ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,900)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: A.J. Dillon ($5,300) and Packers Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Aaron Jones ($6,800), Jordan Love ($5,800), Jerry Jeudy ($5,800), Russell Wilson ($5,400), Javonte Williams ($5,400), Courtland Sutton ($5,200), Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000), Romeo Doubs ($4,900), Jayden Reed ($3,700), Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,600), and Luke Musgrave ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Everyone in this game feels like a lottery ticket
Must-Own: Christian Watson ($5,600)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Packers Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Aaron Jones ($6,800), Jerry Jeudy ($5,800), Christian Watson ($5,600), Russell Wilson ($5,400), AJ Dillon ($5,300), Courtland Sutton ($5,200), Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000), Romeo Doubs ($4,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Samaje Perine ($4,500)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: None
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($8,600), Patrick Mahomes ($8,300), Justin Herbert ($8,000), Travis Kelce ($8,000), Isiah Pacheco ($6,100), Joshua Palmer ($4,800), Jerrick McKinnon ($4,700), Rashee Rice ($4,700), Kadarius Toney ($3,800), Quentin Johnston ($3,800), and Gerald Everett ($3,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($8,600)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joshua Kelley ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,600), Patrick Mahomes ($8,300), Justin Herbert ($8,000), Travis Kelce ($8,000), Isiah Pacheco ($6,100), Joshua Palmer ($4,800), Jerick McKinnon ($4,700), Rashee Rice ($4,700), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Quentin Johnston ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: Kadarius Toney ($3,800)
Must-Own: Keenan Allen ($8,600)
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Raheem Mostert ($7,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($7,500), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000), A.J. Brown ($7,000), Jaylen Waddle ($6,100), DeVonta Smith ($6,000), Dallas Goedert ($4,300), Braxton Berrios ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($8,200) and D’Andre Swift ($5,900)
Lottery Ticket: Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,000) and Julio Jones ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Raheem Mostert ($7,100) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($8,200), Jalen Hurts ($7,500), A.J. Brown ($7,000), Jaylen Waddle ($6,100), DeVonta Smith ($6,000), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,700), Salvon Ahmed ($4,600), Dallas Goedert ($4,300), Eagles Defense ($2,600), Dolphins Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Smith ($5,900)
Lottery Ticket: Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,000)
Must-Own: None, but Hurts must be used in Showdown lineups
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kirk Cousins ($6,200) and Deebo Samuel ($5,400) injury concerns
Fair Value for Expectations: T.J. Hockenson ($5,900), Brock Purdy ($5,300), Alexander Mattison ($5,300), Jordan Addison ($5,100), Jordan Mason ($5,000) and Elijah Mitchell ($4,900) if McCaffrey is out, George Kittle ($4,800), K.J. Osborn ($4,200), 49ers Defense ($3,700), and Vikings Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Christian McCaffrey ($8,300) if he is active he is a total wild card depending on his usage
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800), Deebo Samuel ($5,400), 49ers Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8,300),T.J. Hockenson ($5,900), Brock Purdy ($5,300), Alexander Mattison ($5,300), Jordan Mason ($5,000), Eli Mitchell ($4,900), George Kittle ($4,800), Vikings Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Addison ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: Jauan Jennings ($3,800)
Must-Own: Kirk Cousins ($6,200)