Pricing is definitely starting to lean more on this year’s results than historical context, and we are seeing some big moves in players’ salaries. Some of them are simply worth using even if strains the lineup’s resources. This is why the “Overpriced for Expectation” section isn’t only designed for players with high salaries.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 6 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Sam Howell ($5,500), Terry McLaurin ($5,500), and Falcons Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7,200), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,700), Desmond Ridder ($5,000), Drake London ($4,800), Jahan Dotson ($4,700), Tyler Allgeier ($4,600), Kyle Pitts ($3,500), and Commanders Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Curtis Samuel ($3,700) and Logan Thomas ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Bijan Robinson ($7,200), Drake London ($4,800), and Falcons Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,700), Sam Howell ($5,500), Terry McLaurin ($5,500), Jahan Dotson ($4,700), Tyler Allgeier ($4,600), Curtis Samuel ($3,700), Logan Thomas ($3,500), Kyle Pitts ($3,500), and Commanders Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Desmond Ridder ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: Mack Hollins ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cole Kmet ($4,600) and Vikings Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7,300), Kirk Cousins ($7,100), D.J. Moore ($6,500), Alexander Mattison ($5,600), Cam Akers ($4,800), and Darnell Mooney ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Addison ($5,700) if healthy, Roschon Johnson ($4,600) if healthy, and K.J. Osborn ($4,400)
Lottery Ticket: D’Onta Foreman ($4,400) depending on the health of Johnson, Foreman could have a lot of touches
Must-Own: T.J. Hockenson ($6,600)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Alexander Mattison ($5,600) and Vikings Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7,300), Kirk Cousins ($7,100), T.J. Hockenson ($6,600), D.J. Moore ($6,500), Cam Akers ($4,800), Cole Kmet ($4,600), Roschon Johnson ($4,600), and K.J. Osborn ($4,400), and Darnell Mooney ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Addison ($5,700)
Lottery Ticket: D’Onta Foreman ($4,400) if Johnson is out
Must-Own: None, but Fields is on my short list of quarterback targets for the weekend
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($6,800), Tee Higgins ($6,400), Geno Smith ($5,700), and Seahawks Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300), Kenneth Walker III ($6,700), Joe Burrow ($6,300), Tyler Lockett ($5,700), Tyler Boyd ($4,600), Noah Fant ($3,000), and Bengals Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Joe Mixon ($6,300)
Lottery Ticket: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Seahawks Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300), DK Metcalf ($6,800), Kenneth Walker III ($6,700), Tee Higgins ($6,400), Geno Smith ($5,700), Tyler Lockett ($5,700), Tyler Boyd ($4,600), Noah Fant ($3,000), and Bengals Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Joe Burrow ($6,300) and Joe Mixon ($6,300)
Lottery Ticket: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200), Deebo Samuel ($6,100), Deshaun Watson ($5,800), Brock Purdy ($5,600), George Kittle ($5,000), and David Njoku ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,500), Amari Cooper ($5,800), Jerome Ford ($5,200) if healthy, Kareem Hunt ($4,700), Elijah Moore ($4,300), 49ers Defense ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Browns Defense ($2,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brock Purdy ($5,600) and George Kittle ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,500), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200), Deebo Samuel ($6,100), Deshaun Watson ($5,800), Amari Cooper ($5,800), Jerome Ford ($5,200) if healthy, and Kareem Hunt ($4,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Elijah Moore ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: David Njoku ($3,700)
Must-Own: None
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), Miles Sanders ($5,000), and Dolphins Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,300), Salvon Ahmed ($4,500), Chuba Hubbard ($4,300), and D.J. Chark Jr. ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($5,900)
Lottery Ticket: Bryce Young ($5,100) and Chris Brooks ($4,000)/Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,300) depending on Wilson’s availability
Must-Own: Raheem Mostert ($6,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Waddle ($7,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,300), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600), Raheem Mostert ($6,400), Adam Thielen ($5,900), Bryce Young ($5,100), Salvon Ahmed ($4,500), Chuba Hubbard ($4,300), and D.J. Chark Jr. ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Miles Sanders ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100), Jonathan Taylor ($6,600), Zack Moss ($6,200), Jaguars Defense ($3,400), and Colts Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300), Christian Kirk ($5,400), Gardner Minshew II ($5,000), Evan Engram ($4,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($6,700), Trevor Lawrence ($6,500), and Josh Downs ($4,100)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jonathan Taylor ($6,600) and Gardner Minshew II ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100), Trevor Lawrence ($6,500), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300), Zack Moss ($6,200), Christian Kirk ($5,400),
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($6,700), Evan Engram ($4,500), and Josh Downs ($4,100)
Lottery Ticket: Alec Pierce ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($6,600), C.J. Stroud ($6,000), Dameon Pierce ($5,100), and Texans Defense ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($5,600), Derek Carr ($5,300), Michael Thomas ($4,900), Kendre Miller ($4,500), Robert Woods ($3,800) if healthy, Rashid Shaheed ($3,700), Dalton Schultz ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,100)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($6,800)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Texans Defense ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Chris Olave ($6,600), C.J. Stroud ($6,000), Nico Collins ($5,600), Derek Carr ($5,300), Dameon Pierce ($5,100), Michael Thomas ($4,900), Kendre Miller ($4,500), Robert Woods ($3,800) if healthy, and Dalton Schultz ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,100)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($6,800)
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($8,100), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300), and Raiders Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($7,000), Jakobi Meyers ($5,800), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Mac Jones ($5,000), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,700), Hunter Henry ($4,400), and DeVante Parker ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kendrick Bourne ($4,200) and Patriots Defense ($2,600)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None, but the Patriots Defense feels close
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($8,100) and Raiders Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($7,000), Jakobi Meyers ($5,800), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300), Mac Jones ($5,000), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,700), Kendrick Bourne ($4,200), and DeVante Parker ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patriots Defense ($2,600)
Lottery Ticket: Hunter Henry ($4,400)
Must-Own: None
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rams Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($9,000), Puka Nacua ($8,000), Kyren Williams ($6,500), Marquise Brown ($5,300), Joshua Dobbs ($5,200), Tutu Atwell ($5,100), Emari Demercado ($4,900), Keaontay Ingram ($4,500), Tyler Higbee ($4,000), Michael Wilson ($3,800), and Zach Ertz ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($6,100)
Lottery Ticket: Both Cardinals Running Backs feel like lottery tickets as much as fair value
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($8,000) and Rams Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($9,000), Kyren Williams ($6,500), Marquise Brown ($5,300), Joshua Dobbs ($5,200), Tutu Atwell ($5,100), Emari Demercado ($4,900), Keaontay Ingram ($4,500), Tyler Higbee ($4,000), Michael Wilson ($3,800), and Zach Ertz ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($6,100)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($8,200), A.J. Brown ($7,800), Garrett Wilson ($6,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: DeVonta Smith ($7,000), Breece Hall ($6,000), Zach Wilson ($4,900), Dallas Goedert ($4,800), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,600), Eagles Defense ($3,800), Allen Lazard ($3,700), Tyler Conklin ($3,300), and Jets Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($6,100)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: A.J. Brown ($7,800) and DeVonta Smith ($7,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($8,200), D’Andre Swift ($6,100), Breece Hall ($6,000), Garrett Wilson ($6,000), Zach Wilson ($4,900), Dallas Goedert ($4,800), Eagles Defense ($3,800), Tyler Conklin ($3,300), and Jets Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Gainwell ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Allen Lazard ($3,700)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700) injury concern, David Montgomery ($7,300), Mike Evans ($7,100) injury concern, Jahmyr Gibbs ($5,900) injury concern, and Sam LaPorta ($5,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Chris Godwin ($6,900), Jared Goff ($6,400), Rachaad White ($5,500), Baker Mayfield ($5,400), Josh Reynolds ($4,500), Trey Palmer ($3,900), Kaliff Raymond ($3,800), Deven Thompkins ($3,400), and Cade Otton ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700) injury concern and Jahmyr Gibbs ($5,900) injury concern
Fair Value for Expectations: David Montgomery ($7,300), Mike Evans ($7,100) injury concern, Jared Goff ($6,400), Sam LaPorta ($5,600), Rachaad White ($5,500), Baker Mayfield ($5,400), Josh Reynolds ($4,500), Trey Palmer ($3,900), Deven Thompkins ($3,400), and Cade Otton ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kaliff Raymond ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,600)
Must-Own: Chris Godwin ($6,900)
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkely ($7,700) injury concern, Darren Waller ($5,000) injury concern
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($8,000), Josh Allen ($7,900), Tyrod Taylor ($5,300), Gabe Davis ($5,300), Matt Breida ($5,100), Latavius Murray ($4,600), Eric Gray ($4,300), and Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($6,000)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3,300)
Must-Own: Bills Defense ($3,800)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Matt Breida ($5,100) if Barkley is healthy and Daniel Jones ($5,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($8,000), Josh Allen ($7,900), Saquon Barkley ($7,700) if healthy, Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) if Jones is out, Darren Waller ($5,000), Latavius Murray ($4,600), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100), Darius Slayton ($3,900), Bills Defense ($3,800), Dalton Kincaid ($3,200), and Dawson Knox ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($6,000), Gabe Davis ($5,300)
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cowboys Defense ($3,000) and Chargers ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,000), Keenan Allen ($7,800), Justin Herbert ($7,300), Tony Pollard ($7,200), Joshua Palmer ($4,400), Brandin Cooks ($4,300), Jake Ferguson ($3,700), Michael Gallup ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($5,900)
Lottery Ticket: Quentin Johnston ($3,800)
Must-Own: CeeDee Lamb ($7,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joshua Kelley ($5,300) if Ekeler plays and Cowboys Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,000), Justin Herbert ($7,300), CeeDee Lamb ($7,200), Rico Dowdle ($4,400), Jake Ferguson ($3,700), Gerald Everett ($3,600), and Chargers Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($7,200) if healthy, Dak Prescott ($5,900), Joshua Palmer ($4,400), and Brandin Cooks ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Quentin Johnston ($3,800)
Must-Own: Keenan Allen ($7,800)