We always pay attention to how the salaries are adjusted on a weekly basis, but this time, we found a different trend. There appears to be a few games where the salaries are largely undervalued or overvalued as a set. Those will obviously provide a nice opportunity to deviate from the popular lineup builds in one direction or the other.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 5 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dameon Pierce ($5,300), Texans Defense ($3,500), and Falcons Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7,600), C.J. Stroud ($6,000), Nico Collins ($5,600), Desmond Ridder ($4,900), Tank Dell ($4,800), Tyler Allgeier ($4,700), Drake London ($4,700), Robert Woods ($4,000), and Dalton Schultz ($3,400),
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Kyle Pitts ($3,300) and John Metchie III ($3,100)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Nico Collins ($5,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7,700), C.J. Stroud ($6,000), Dameon Pierce ($5,300), Tank Dell ($4,800), Tyler Allgeier ($4,700), Drake London ($4,700), and Falcons Defense ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Desmond Ridder ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Mack Hollins ($3,300)
Must-Own: None, but Ridder’s salary is way too low for a starting quarterback who can run, too
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jared Goff ($6,300), Jahmyr Gibbs ($5,900), Bryce Young ($5,100), and Lions Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: David Montgomery ($6,600), Miles Sanders ($5,200), Adam Thielen ($5,100), Sam LaPorta ($5,000), Terrace Marshall Jr. ($3,600), Kaliff Raymond ($3,300), and Hayden Hurst ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Josh Reynolds ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($4,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: David Montgomery ($6,600), Jared Goff ($6,300), Jahmyr Gibbs ($5,900), Adam Thielen ($5,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Miles Sanders ($5,200), Bryce Young ($5,100), Sam LaPorta ($5,000), Terrace Marshall, Jr. ($3,600), and Jonathan Mingo ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($4,000)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,400), Zack Moss ($5,800) primarily if Johnathan Taylor is active, and Colts Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derrick Henry ($7,500), Anthony Richardson ($7,000), Ryan Tannehill ($4,900), Tyjae Spears ($4,800), Josh Downs ($3,700), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,500), and Chig Okonkwo ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700) and Titans Defense ($2,400)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Taylor ($6,800)
Must-Own: None, but DeAndre Hopkins is going to pop soon, and at this price he is feeling close to a must-own for me
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman, Jr. ($6,400) and Colts Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Anthony Richardson ($7,000), Jonathan Taylor ($6,800), Zach Moss ($5,800), DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ryan Tannehill ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,500)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($7,500)
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkely ($8,100), Jaylen Waddle ($7,500), Darren Waller ($5,400), Matt Breida ($5,200), and Isaiah Hodgins ($4,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,000), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100), Raheem Mostert ($6,200), De’Von Achane ($6,100), Daniel Jones ($5,800), Darius Slayton ($4,100), Braxton Berrios ($3,600), and Dolphins Defense ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3,600)
Must-Own: Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Matt Breida ($5,200) and Dolphins Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,000), Saquon Barkley ($8,100), Jaylen Waddle ($7,500),Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100), and Raheem Mostert ($6,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: De’Von Achane ($6,100), Daniel Jones ($5,800), and Darren Waller ($5,400)
Lottery Ticket: Braxton Berrios ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($6,900), Derek Carr ($5,300), and Mac Jones ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Rahmondre Stevenson ($5,600), Michael Thomas ($4,900), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,700), Kendrick Bourne ($4,600), Hunter Henry ($4,400), Rashid Shaheed ($3,800), and Patriots Defense ($3,100),
Underpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($3,000)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($6,300)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($6,900), Derek Carr ($5,300), and Mac Jones ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($6,300), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600), Patriots Defense ($3,100), and Saints Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Michael Thomas ($4,900) and Ezekiel Elliott ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Rashid Shaheed ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Lamar Jackson ($7,800), Mark Andrews ($5,500), Najee Harris ($5,400), and Ravens Defense ($4,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Zay Flowers ($5,500), George Pickens ($5,200), Kenny Pickett ($5,000), Gus Edwards ($5,000), Jaylen Warren ($4,900), Rashod Bateman ($4,400), Odell Beckham Jr. ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Washington ($2,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ravens Defense ($4,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Zay Flowers ($5,500), Mark Andrews ($5,500), Najee Harris ($5,400), George Pickens ($5,200), Gus Edwards ($5,000), Jaylen Warren ($4,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($4,200)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cooper Kupp ($8,600), Jalen Hurts ($8,000), Tutu Atwell ($5,300), Dallas Goedert ($4,200), and Eagles Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,000), Puka Nacua ($7,700), DeVonat Smith ($7,400), Kyren Williams ($6,700), D’Andre Swift ($6,000), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,800), Tyler Higbee ($4,100), and Rams Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($6,000) and Eagles Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,000), Puka Nacua ($7,700), Devonta Smith ($7,400), Kyren Williams ($6,700), Tutu Atwell ($5,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dallas Goedert ($4,200) and Tyler Higbee ($4,100)
Lottery Ticket: Van Jefferson ($3,800)
Must-Own: Cooper Kupp ($8,600)
Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($6,600), Joe Mixon ($6,400), and Bengals Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), Joe Burrow ($6,200), Joshua Dobbs ($5,200), Marquise Brown ($5,000), Michael WIlson, and Zach Ertz ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Marquise Brown ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), Tee Higgins ($6,600), James Connor ($5,800), Joshua Dobbs ($5,200), Bengals Defense ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Joe Mixon ($6,400), Joe Burrow ($6,200)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerry Jeudy ($6,300), Javonte Williams ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Garrett Wilson ($6,000), Russell Wilson ($5,700), Breece Hall ($5,400), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Dalvin Cook ($5,100), Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000), Zach Wilson ($4,900), Allen Lazard ($3,900), Jets Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Broncos Defense ($3,200)
Lottery Ticket: Marvin Mims Jr. ($4,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerry Jeudy ($6,300), Garrett Wilson ($6,000), Javonte Williams ($5,500), and Dalvon Cook ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Russell Wilson ($5,700), Breece Hall ($5,400), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000), Broncos Defense ($3,200), and Jets Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Samaje Perine ($4,800)
Lottery Ticket: Marvin Mims, Jr. ($4,000)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Alexander Mattison ($5,700), Skyy Moore ($4,400), and Chiefs Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($9,400), Patrick Mahomes ($8,200), Travis Kelce ($7,600), Kirk Cousins ($6,900), T.J. Hockenson ($6,500), Isiah Pacheco ($5,700), Cam Akers ($4,900), Kadarius Toney ($4,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerrick McKinnon ($4,900) and Rashee Rice ($3,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jordan Addison ($5,300) and Justin Watson ($3,400)
Must-Own: None, but both quarterbacks should be in line for great games so either one is a great play
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Alexander Mattison ($5,700) and Chiefs Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($9,400), Patrick Mahomes ($8,200), Travis Kelce ($7,600), Kirk Cousins ($6,900), T.J. Hockenson ($6,500), Isiah Pacheco ($5,700), Jordan Addison ($5,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerrick McKinnon ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Justin Watson ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brandin Cooks ($4,600), George Kittle ($4,600), 49ers Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($7,100), Tony Pollard ($7,000), Deebo Samuel ($6,200), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,100), Brock Purdy ($5,700), Michael Gallup ($3,400), Jake Ferguson ($3,400), and Cowboys Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($6,100)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($8,600)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8,600), CeeDee Lamb ($7,100), Tony Pollard ($7,000), Deebo Samuel ($6,200), Dak Prescott ($6,100), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,100), Brock Purdy ($5,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: George Kittle ($4,600), Jake Ferguson ($3,400), and Deuce Vaughn ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Cowboys Defense ($3,100)
Must-Own: None, but if he fits salary-wise, you might have to force McCaffrey into a lineup
Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: A.J. Dillon ($5,000), Packers Defense ($3,300), and Raiders Defense ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Love ($5,600), Jimmy Garappolo ($5,300), Christian Watson ($5,700), Jakobi Meyers ($5,100), Jayden Reed ($3,700), and Luke Musgrave ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Josh Jacobs ($6,700) and Romeo Doubs ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Davante Adams ($7,800) assuming he is healthy and active and Aaron Jones ($6,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($6,700), Aaron Jones ($6,200) if healthy, Christian Watson ($5,700), Jakobi Meyers ($5,100), Packers Defense ($3,300), and Raiders Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($5,600) and Aiden O’Connell ($4,900) obviously if Garoppolo is out again, Romeo Doubs ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Hunter Renfrow ($3,300)
Must-Own: Davante Adams ($7,800)