We are definitely starting to see some movement in the salaries for players who have been extremely explosive or completely nonexistent through three weeks, but we also have a decent amount of players whose values are still misplaced. We definitely make it a point to highlight them in this week’s column.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8,200) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,200), Stefon Diggs ($8,100), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), Raheem Mostert ($6,500), James Cook ($6,300), Gabe Davis ($5,900), De’Von Achance ($5,900), Dawson Knox ($3,100), Bills Defense ($2,700), and Dolphins Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Dalton Kincaid ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), De’Von Achane ($5,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9.200), Josh Allen ($8,200), Stefon Diggs ($8,100), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400), James Cook (6,300),
Underpriced for Expectation: Raheem Mostert ($6,500), Gabe Davis ($5,900)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerry Jeudy ($6,600), D.J. Moore ($5,600), and Cole Kmet ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Russell Wilson ($5,800), Courtland Sutton ($5,300), Roschon Johnson ($4,900), Khalil Herbert ($4,700), Samaje Perine ($4,700),
Underpriced for Expectation: Justin Fields ($6,600), Javonte Williams ($5,500), and Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($4,100)
Must-Own: None, but Justin Fields is close because he is going to have a big rushing game soon and crush value at a diminishing salary
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jerry Jeudy ($6,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($6,600), Russell Wilson ($5,800), Javonte Williams ($5,500), Courtland Sutton ($5,300), Roschon Johnson ($4,900), Broncos defense ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: D.J. Moore ($5,600), Khalil Herbert ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($4,100)
Must-Own: None
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Mark Andrews ($5,400), and David Njoku ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amari Cooper ($6,100), Deshaun Watson ($6,000), Zay Flowers ($5,600), Jerome Ford ($5,400), Gus Edwards ($5,200), Melvin Gordon ($4,900), Elijah Moore ($4,700), Nelson Agholor ($3,400), and Ravens Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Browns Defense ($2,800)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Deshaun Watson ($6,000) and Melvin Gordon ($4,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Amari Cooper ($6,100), Mark Andrews ($5,400), Gus Edwards ($5,200), Elijah Moore ($4,700), and Ravens Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($5,600), Jerome Ford ($5,400), and David Njoku ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: Nelson Agholor ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($6,800), Joe Burrow ($6,500), Joe Mixon ($6,400), DeAndre Hopkins ($5,800), Bengals Defense ($3,800), and Titans Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800), Derrick Henry ($7,000), Tyjae Spears ($4,700), Tyler Boyd ($4,100), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,300), and Chig Okonkwo ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) and Bengals Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tee Higgins ($6,800), Joe Burrow ($6,500), Joe Mixon ($6,400), DeAndre Hopkins ($5,800), Tyjae Spears ($4,700), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,300), and Chig Okonkwo ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Derrick Henry ($7,000)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Boyd ($4,100)
Must-Own: None, but Derrick Henry is close
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,500) and Colts Defense ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Anthony Richardson ($6,700), Puka Nucua ($6,700), Kyren Williams ($6,000), Zack Moss ($6,000), Van Jefferson ($4,000), and Rams Defense (3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($5,700) and Tutu Atwell ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: Josh Downs ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,500) and Colts Defense ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Anthony Richardson ($6,700), Puka Nucua ($6,700), Kyren Williams ($6,000), Zack Moss ($6,000), Matthew Stafford ($5,700), and Tutu Atwell ($5,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Van Jefferson ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Josh Downs ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($7,100), Chris Godwin ($6,400), Saints Defense ($3,600), and Buccaneers Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,000), Rachaad White ($5,600), Baker Mayfield ($5,400), Michael Thomas ($5,200), Kendre Miller ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Jameis Winston ($5,300)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($6,100)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($7,000) and Chris Godwin ($6,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Chris Olave ($7,100), Rachaad White ($5,600), Baker Mayfield ($5,400), Michael Thomas ($5,200), and Kendre Miller ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Derek Carr ($5,500) or Jameis Winston ($5,300)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($6,100)
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($8,000), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,600), and Dallas Goedert ($4,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($7,500), DeVonta Smith ($7,400), Terry McLaurin ($5,300), Kenneth Gainwell ($5,200), Sam Howell ($5,000), Jahan Dotson ($4,800), Eagles Defense ($4,100), and Commanders Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($5,700)
Lottery Ticket: Curtis Samuel ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($8,000) and Eagles Defense ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($7,500), DeVonta Smith ($7,400), D’Andre Swift ($5,700), Terry McLaurin ($5,300), Kenneth Gainwell ($5,200), Sam Howell ($5,000), Jahan Dotson ($4,800), Dallas Goedert ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: Commanders Defense ($2,400)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kirk Cousins ($7,100) and Vikings Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($9,600), T.J. Hockenson ($6,500), Alexander Mattison ($5,800), Miles Sanders ($5,800), Jordan Addison ($5,700), Bryce Young ($5,200), Chuba Hubbard ($4,800), K.J. Osborne ($4,200), D.J. Chark Jr. ($4,000), and Hayden Hurst ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Cam Akers ($4,900) and Panthers Defense ($2,400)
Must-Own: Adam Thielen ($4,500)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Jefferson ($9,600), Kirk Cousins ($7,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: T.J. Hockenson ($6,500), Alexander Mattison ($5,800), Miles Sanders ($5,800), Jordan Addison ($5,700), Chuba Hubbard ($4,800), K.J. Osborne ($4,200), and D.J. Chark Jr. ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bryce Young ($5,200), Adam Thielen ($4,500), Hayden Hurst ($3,300) and Panthers Defense ($2,400)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,400) if he plays, otherwise Terrace Marshall, Jr. ($3,500)
Must-Own: None, but Carolina’s offense is so undervalued that I’m sure I will use someone from the team
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($5,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Najee Harris ($5,500), George Pickens ($5,400), Kenny Pickett ($5,100), Dameon Pierce ($5,100), Nico Collins ($5,100), Jaylen Warren ($5,000), Tank Dell ($4,600), and Texans Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Pat Freiermuth ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Najee Harris ($5,500), Dameon Pierce ($5,100), Nico Collins ($5,100), Jaylen Warren ($5,000), Tank Dell ($4,600), Pat Freiermuth ($3,400), and Texans Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenny Pickett ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,100)
Must-Own: George Pickens ($5,400)
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($8,500) injury concerns
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($8,000), Keenan Allen ($7,900), Justin Herbert ($7,800), Jakobi Meyers ($5,500), Jimmy Garappolo ($5,300) if active and Quentin Johnston ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Joshua Palmer ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Josh Jacobs ($7,000) Normally, I wouldn’t include someone like Jacobs here, but he feels like an obvious overprice that could turn into a great reward which is its own type of lottery ticket
Must-Own: None, but I love Palmer at that price so he is close
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($8,500) due to injury concerns
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($8,000), Keenan Allen ($7,900), Justin Herbert ($7,800), Jakobi Meyers ($5,500), Jimmy Garappolo ($5,300) if active
Underpriced for Expectation: Joshua Palmer ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Quentin Johnston ($3,700)
Must-Own: Josh Jacobs ($7,000)
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: CeeDee Lamb ($7,500), Dak Prescott ($6,200), Mac Jones ($5,200), and Hunter Henry ($4,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tony Pollard ($7,800), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200), Kendrick Bourne ($5,100), DeVante Parker ($4,000), Cowboys Defense ($4,000), Michael Gallup ($3,700), Jake Ferguson ($3,500), and Patriots Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brandin Cooks ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Ezekiel Elliott ($5,100)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($7,800) and CeeDee Lamb ($7,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Dak Prescott ($6,200), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200), Mac Jones ($5,200), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,100), Brandin Cooks ($4,900), Hunter Henry ($4,300), and Patriots Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kendrick Bourne ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: Deuce Vaughn ($4,200)
Must-Own: None
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: George Kittle ($5,100), 49ers Defense ($4,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Deebo Samuel ($6,900), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200), Brock Purdy ($5,900), James Conner ($5,900), Josh Dobbs ($5,000), Marquis Brown ($5,000), Elijah Mitchell ($4,600), Rondale Moore ($3,400), and Zach Ertz ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($9,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($4,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Deebo Samuel ($6,900) if healthy, Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200) if healthy, James Connor ($5,900), George Kittle ($5,100), Joshua Dobbs ($5,000), Marquise Brown ($5,000), Elijah Mitchell ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brock Purdy ($5,900)
Lottery Ticket: Ronnie Bell ($3,400)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($9,200)
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Garrett Wilson ($6,700), Skyy Moore ($5,000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,600), and Chiefs Defense ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($8,000), Isiah Pacheco ($5,600), Breece Hall ($5,500), Dalvin Cook ($5,300), Zach Wilson ($5,000), Jerrick McKinnon ($4,900), Kadarius Toney ($4,700), Allen Lazard ($4,400), Rashee Rice ($3,700), and Justin Watson ($3,600), and Tyler Conklin ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,200)
Must-Own: Travis Kelce ($7,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dalvin Cook ($5,300) and Zach Wilson ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($8,000), Garrett Wilson ($6,700), Isiah Pacheco ($5,600), Breece Hall ($5,500), Skyy Moore ($5,000), Kadarius Toney ($4,700), Chiefs Defense ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerrick McKinnon ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Justin Watson ($3,600)
Must-Own: Travis Kelce ($7,400)
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($8,000) injury concerns, Giants Defense ($3,100), and Seahawks Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($7,100), Kenneth Walker III ($6,700), Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Matt Brieda ($5,400), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,800), Darius Slayton ($4,000), and Jalin Hyatt ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Daniel Jones ($5,900), Geno Smith ($5,700)
Lottery Ticket: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100) and Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,100)
Must-Own: Darren Waller ($5,500)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($7,100),
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($8,000) if healthy, Kenneth Walker III ($6,700), Daniel Jones ($5,900), Darren Waller ($5,500), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,800), Zach Chabornnet ($4,500), Giants Defense ($3,100), and Seahawks Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Geno Smith ($5,700), and Matt Breida ($5,400) if Barkley doesn’t play
Lottery Ticket: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100)
Must-Own: None