We are definitely starting to see some moves in the salaries for players who are making an early-season statement — even if these statements are negative. These moves have not been too extreme yet, so there’s still time to capitalize on outdated expectations.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 3 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Derrick Henry ($7,400), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,300), and David Njoku ($4,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Deshaun Watson ($6,100), Amari Cooper ($5,700), Ryan Tannehill ($5,000), Elijah Moore ($4,700), Tyjae Spears ($4,400), Treylon Burks ($4,300), Browns Defense ($3,300), and Chig Okonkwo ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerome Ford ($4,800)
Lottery Ticket: Kareem Hunt ($4,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($6,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derrick Henry ($7,400), Deshaun Watson ($6,100), Amari Cooper ($5,700), Ryan Tannehill ($5,000), Jerome Ford ($4,800), Elijah Moore ($4,700), Tyjae Spears ($4,400), Treylon Burks ($4,300), and Browns Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chig Okonkwo ($3,200)
Lottery Ticket: Kareem Hunt ($4,600)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900), David Montgomery ($5,900) due to injury concerns, and Lions Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600), Tyler Allgeier ($5,100), Desmond Ridder ($5,000), Drake London ($5,000), Sam LaPorta ($4,000), Kyle Pitts ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Josh Reynolds ($4,200) if healthy
Lottery Ticket: Craig Reynolds ($4,400) if Montgomery is out
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900), Bijan Robinson ($7,800), Tyler Allgeier ($5,100), Desmond Ridder ($5,000), Drake London ($5,000), Sam LaPorta ($4,000), Kyle Pitts ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600) and Josh Reynolds ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Craig Reynolds ($4,400) if Montgomery is out
Must-Own: None
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Christian Watson ($5,900) if active, Jordan Love ($5,600), Jamaal Williams ($5,600), and Packers Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Chris Olave ($7,000), Aaron Jones ($6,800) if healthy, Derek Carr ($5,500), Michael Thomas ($5,300), Romeo Doubs ($4,800), Jayden Reed ($3,800), Juwan Johnson ($3,500), Luke Musgrave ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tony Jones Jr. ($4,500) and Rashid Shaheed ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Kendre Miller ($4,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6,800) obviously because of injury and Jamaal Williams ($5,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Chris Olave ($7,000), Aaron Jones ($6,800) if healthy, Christian Watson ($5,900), Derek Carr ($5,500), Michael Thomas ($5,300), Romeo Doubs ($4,800), Jayden Reed ($3,800), Juwan Johnson ($3,500), Luke Musgrave ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($5,600) and Rashid Shaheed ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Kendre Miller ($4,300)
Must-Own: None
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000), Jerry Jeudy ($6,500), De’Von Achane ($5,000), and Dolphins Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,000), Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) if healthy, Raheem Mostert ($6,000), Russell Wilson ($5,900), Courtland Sutton ($5,100), Samaje Perine ($4,800), Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Javonte Williams ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: Adam Trautman ($3,000)
Must-Own: None, but Javonte Williams is close for me
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: De’Von Achane ($5,000) and Dolphins Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,000), Jaylen Waddle ($7,500), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000), Jerry Jeudy ($6,500), Raheem Mostert ($6,000), Russell Wilson ($5,900), Courtland Sutton ($5,100), Javonte Williams ($5,500), Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Samaje Perine ($4,800)
Lottery Ticket: Braxton Berrios ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($8,500) injury concern and Alexander Mattison ($5,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($7,600), Justin Herbert ($7,500), Kirk Cousins ($6,900), T.J. Hockenson ($6,500), Jordan Addison ($5,500), Joshua Kelley ($5,400), K.J. Osborn ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mike Williams ($6,000)
Lottery Ticket: Quentin Johnston ($3,400)
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($9,300)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($8,500) due to injury
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($7,600), Justin Herbert ($7,500), Kirk Cousins ($6,900), T.J. Hockenson ($6,500), Mike Williams ($6,000), Jordan Addison ($5,500), Joshua Kelley ($5,400),
Underpriced for Expectation: Alexander Mattison ($5,800) and K.J. Osborn ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($9,300)
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Garrett Wilson ($6,800), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,700), Mac Jones ($5,300), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Dalvin Cook ($5,600), Kendrick Bourne ($5,100), Zach Wilson ($4,900), Allen Lazard ($4,700), Juju Smith-Schuster ($4,300), Hunter Henry ($4,100), DeVante Parker ($3,800), Patriots Defense ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jets Defense ($2,800)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Breece Hall ($5,600)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dalvin Cook ($5,600) and Kendrick Bourne ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Garrett Wilson ($6,800), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,700), Mac Jones ($5,300), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,200), Zach Wilson ($4,900), Allen Lazard ($4,700), Juju Smith-Schuster ($4,300), and Patriots Defense ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Breece Hall ($5,600), DeVante Parker ($3,800), and Jets Defense ($2,800)
Lottery Ticket: Hunter Henry ($4,100)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8,100), Terry McLaurin ($5,600), Sam Howell ($5,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($8,100), James Cook ($6,400), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800), Gabe Davis ($5,800), Jahan Dotson ($4,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($3,400) primarily if Dawson Knox is out
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8,100) and Stefon Diggs ($8,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Cook ($6,400), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800), Gabe Davis ($5,800), Terry McLaurin ($5,600), Jahan Dotson ($4,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Sam Howell ($5,400) and Dalton Kincaid ($3,400)
Lottery Ticket: Dyami Brown ($3,100)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dameon Pierce ($5,200), Evan Engram ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900), Christian Kirk ($5,400), C.J. Stroud ($5,300), Nico Collins ($5,300), Zay Jones ($4,500), Robert Woods ($4,400), Jaguars Defense ($3,800), Dalton Schultz ($3,700), and Tank Dell ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Trevor Lawrence ($6,800)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,200)
Must-Own: Calvin Ridley ($7,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dameon Pierce ($5,200) and Evan Engram ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Calvin Ridley ($7,200), Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900), Trevor Lawrence ($6,800), Christian Kirk ($5,400), C.J. Stroud ($5,300), Zay Jones ($4,500), Robert Woods ($4,400), Jaguars Defense ($3,800), Dalton Schultz ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Nico Collins ($5,300) and Tank Dell ($3,600)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,200)
Must-Own: None, but I will have at least one player from Jacksonville in most lineups
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,200) and Mark Andrews ($6,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Zack Moss ($5,500), Zay Flowers ($5,300), Gardner Minshew II ($5,100), Rashod Bateman ($4,600), and Ravens Defense ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Gus Edwards ($5,300)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Zack Moss ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,200), Mark Andrews ($6,000), Gus Edwards ($5,300), Rashod Bateman ($4,600), and Ravens Defense ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gardner Minshew II ($5,100) and Zay Flowers ($5,300)
Lottery Ticket: Nelson Agholor ($3,200) with Odell Beckham, Jr. out
Must-Own: None, but Zay Flowers is close
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($6,900) injury concern, Geno Smith ($5,700) and Seahawks Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyler Lockett ($6,400), Kenneth Walker III ($6,200), Miles Sanders ($5,700) if active, Chuba Hubbard ($5,100), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300), D.J. Chark ($3,800), Hayden Hurst ($3,800), and Panthers Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Andy Dalton ($4,900), Adam Thielen ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chuba Hubbard ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($6,900), Tyler Lockett ($6,400), Kenneth Walker III ($6,200), Miles Sanders ($5,700), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300), Adam Thielen ($3,900), D.J. Chark ($3,800), Hayden Hurst ($3,800), Seahawks Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Geno Smith ($5,700) and Andy Dalton ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,400)
Must-Own: None, but Tyler Lockett slides into this category if Metcalf can’t play
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cole Kmet ($4,300), and Chiefs Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($8,300), Travis Kelce ($7,200), D.J. Moore ($5,700), Isiah Pacheco ($5,400), Khalil Herbert ($5,100), Roschon Johnson ($4,700), Skyy Moore ($4,400), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Justin Fields ($7,100)
Lottery Ticket: Justin Watson ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Patrick Mahomes ($8,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Kelce ($7,200), Justin Fields ($7,100), Isiah Pacheco ($5,400), Khalil Herbert ($5,100), Roschon Johnson ($4,700), Skyy Moore ($4,400), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: D.J. Moore ($5,700)
Lottery Ticket: Chase Claypool ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($6,300) and Joshua Dobbs ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tony Pollard ($8,000), CeeDee Lamb ($7,700), Dak Prescott ($6,600), Brandin Cooks ($5,200), Marquise Brown ($4,900), Jake Ferguson ($3,600), Zach Ertz ($3,500), and Cardinals Defense ($2,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cowboys Defense ($4,400)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($8,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($7,700), Dak Prescott ($6,600), Brandin Cooks ($5,200), Joshua Dobbs ($5,100), Marquise Brown ($4,900), Jake Ferguson ($3,600), Zach Ertz ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($6,300) and Keaontay Ingram ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($7,500), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200), and Raiders Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($7,000), Najee Harris ($5,400), Kenny Pickett ($5,100), Jaylen Warren ($5,000), Jakobi Meyers ($4,800), Allen Robinson II ($4,100), and Pat Freiermuth ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: George Pickens ($5,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($7,500), Josh Jacobs ($7,000), Najee Harris ($5,400), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200), Kenny Pickett ($5,100), Jaylen Warren ($5,000), Allen Robinson II ($4,100), and Pat Freiermuth ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: Calvin Austin IIi ($3,300)
Must-Own: George Pickens ($5,400)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($8,000), Rachaad White ($5,900), Baker Mayfield ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($7,400), DeVonta Smith ($7,300), Mike Evans ($6,300), D’Andre Swift ($5,800), Chris Godwin ($5,700), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,900) if active, Dallas Goedert ($4,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Eagles Defense ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($5,900) and Baker Mayfield ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($7,400), DeVonta Smith ($7,300), Mike Evans ($6,300), Dallas Goedert ($4,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($5,800), Chris Godwin ($5,700), and Eagles Defense ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,000)
Must-Own: Jalen Hurts ($8,000)
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800), Joe Burrow ($6,600) injury concern, Puka Nacua ($6,400) injury concern, and Bengals Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Joe Mixon ($6,300), Tee Higgins ($6,200), Matthew Stafford ($5,600), Tutu Atwell ($5,000), Tyler Higbee ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rams Defense ($2,800) primarily if Joe Burrow is out
Lottery Ticket: Van Jefferson ($3,900)
Must-Own: Kyren Williams ($5,700)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($6,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800), Joe Burrow ($6,600), Joe Mixon ($6,300), Tee Higgins ($6,200), Kyren Williams ($5,700), Matthew Stafford ($5,600), Tyler Higbee ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Van Jefferson and Rams Defense ($2,800)
Lottery Ticket: Ben Skowronek ($3,000)
Must-Own: Tutu Atwell ($5,000)