We know it will come up in most articles this weekend, but the theme of Week 2 on an annual basis is “overreaction.” In terms of salaries, it’s difficult to have an extreme shift after just one game, but we definitely noticed some significant moves that cannot be ignored.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 2 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Desmond Ridder ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7,900), A.J. Dillon ($5,900), Tyler Allgeier ($5,500), Drake London ($5,000), Kyle Pitts ($4,200), Mack Hollins ($3,700), Jayden Reed ($3,400), and Packers Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6,600) health dependent, Jordan Love ($5,500), and Romeo Doubs ($4,800)
Lottery Ticket: Luke Musgrave ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyler Allgeier ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($7,900), Christian Watson ($5,900), Desmond Ridder ($5,000), Drake London ($5,000), Romeo Doubs ($4,800), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,500), Kyle Pitts ($4,200), Packers Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6,600) if healthy, Jordan Love ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: Mack Hollins ($3,700)
Must-Own: AJ Dillon ($5,900) if Aaron Jones is out
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($7,600), Josh Jacobs ($7,100), Damien Harris ($5,400), and Jimmy Garappolo ($5,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($8,000), James Cook ($6,100), Gabe Davis ($5,800), Jakobi Meyers ($5,300), Bills Defense ($3,700), Diontae Harty ($3,400), and Dawson Knox ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Josh Allen ($7,900)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($7,600) and Josh Jacobs ($7,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($7,900), James Cook ($6,100), Damien Harris ($5,400), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300), Zamir White ($4,400), Bills Defense ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gabe Davis ($5,800) and Dalton Kincaid ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Raiders Defense ($2,200)
Must-Own: If salary permits, Stefon Diggs ($8,000)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joe Mixon ($6,500), Mark Andrews ($6,300), and Bengals Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Joe Burrow ($6,900), Rashod Bateman ($5,100), Justice Hill ($4,900), Odell Beckham Jr. ($4,700), Tyler Boyd ($3,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($6,400), Gus Edwards ($5,300), Zay Flowers ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($6,400), Mark Andrews ($6,300), Rashod Bateman ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Joe Burrow ($6,900), Joe Mixon ($6,500), Gus Edwards ($5,300), Justice Hill ($4,900), Odell Beckham, Jr. ($4,700), Ravens Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Boyd ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyler Lockett ($6,100), Geno Smith ($5,900), and Lions Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900), DK Metcalf ($7,000), Jared Goff ($6,200), David Montgomery ($5,800), Kenneth Walker III ($5,800), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300), Sam LaPorta ($3,900), and Josh Reynolds ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: Kalif Raymond ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800), Jared Goff ($6,200), Tyler Lockett ($6,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300), David Montgomery ($5,800), Kenneth Walker III ($5,800), Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Geno Smith ($5,900) and Sam LaPorta ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Josh Reynolds ($3,700)
Must-Own: D.K. Metcalf ($7,000)
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($8,700) injury concerns, DeAndre Hopkins ($6,700) injury concerns, Gerald Everett ($4,100), and Chargers Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derrick Henry ($7,400), Keenan Allen ($7,100), and Justin Herbert ($7,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mike Williams ($5,700), Ryan Tannehill ($5,000), Joshua Kelley ($5,000), Treylon Burks ($4,500), and Chig Okonkwo ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($8,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derrick Henry ($7,400), Keenan Allen ($7,100), Justin Herbert ($7,000), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,700), Mike Williams ($5,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ryan Tannehill ($5,000), Joshua Kelley ($5,000), Treylon Burks ($4,500), Chig Okonkwo ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Jesse Palmer ($3,400)
Must-Own: None, but Derrick Henry is close
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Fields ($7,600) and Cole Kmet ($4,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($6,200), Chris Godwin ($6,000), Rachaad White ($5,500), D.J. Moore ($5,500), Khalil Herbert ($5,400), Baker Mayfield ($5,100), Roschon Johnson ($4,900), and Buccaneers Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Darnell Mooney ($4,400)
Lottery Ticket: Chase Claypool ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Khalil Herbert ($5,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7,600), Chris Godwin ($6,000), Rachaad White ($5,500), D.J. Moore ($5,500), Baker Mayfield ($5,100), Buccaneers Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($6,200) and Cole Kmet ($4,400)
Lottery Ticket: Chase Claypool ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900), Isiah Pacheco ($5,700), Evan Engram ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes (8,300), Travis Kelce ($7,600), Trevor Lawrence ($6,700), Zay Jones ($4,700), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,500), and Rashee Rice ($3,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($7,200), Christian Kirk ($5,100), Jerrick McKinnon ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Justin Watson ($3,300)
Must-Own: Kadarius Toney ($4,600)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne, Jr. ($6,900), Isiah Pacheco ($5,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($8,300), Travis Kelce ($7,600) if he plays, Calvin Ridley ($7,200), Trevor Lawrence ($6,700), Christian Kirk ($5,100), Evan Engram ($4,800), Tank Bigsby ($4,700), Zay Jones ($4,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerrick McKinnon ($4,600), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,500)
Lottery Ticket: Kadarius Toney ($4,600)
Must-Own: None
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300), Dalton Schultz ($4,000), and Texans Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Anthony Richardson ($6,300), Dameon Pierce ($5,600), C.J. Stroud ($5,200), Deon Jackson ($4,900), Nico Collins ($4,800), Robert Woods ($4,600), and Colts Defense ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Zack Moss ($4,700) and Tank Dell ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman, Jr. ($6,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Anthony Richardson ($6,300), Dameon Pierce ($5,600), C.J. Stroud ($5,200), Nico Collins ($4,800), Devin Singletary ($4,700), Robert Woods ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deon Jackson ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,600) and Tank Dell ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cam Akers ($5,700), George Kittle ($5,300), Kyren Williams ($5,000), and 49ers Defense ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8,900), Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800), Brock Purdy ($5,700), Matthew Stafford ($5,600), Puka Nacua ($4,900), Tutu Atwell ($4,700), and Tyler Higbee ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deebo Samuel ($5,600) and Van Jefferson Jr. ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: George Kittle ($5,300) and Kyren Williams ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8,900), Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800), Brock Purdy ($5,700), Cam Akers ($5,700), Matthew Stafford ($5,600), Deebo Samuel ($5,600), Puka Nacua ($4,900), Tyler Higbee ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tutu Atwell ($4,700), Van Jefferson ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Rams Defense ($2,300)
Must-Own: None
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($6,200), Isaiah Hodgins ($5,000), Matt Breida ($5,000), and Giants Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Daniel Jones ($6,000), Darren Waller ($5,500), Joshua Dobbs ($5,000), Rondale Moore ($4,000) and Zach Ertz ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Marquise Brown ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Saquon Barkley ($8,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Matt Breida ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Conner ($6,200), Darren Waller ($5,500), Joshua Dobbs ($5,000), Isaiah Hodgins ($5,000), Marquise Brown ($4,900), Giants Defense ($3,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Daniel Jones ($6,000), Darius Slayton ($4,400), Keaontay Ingram ($4,300), Rondale Moore ($4,000), Cardinals Defense ($2,600)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Ertz ($3,500)
Must-Own: Saquon Barkley ($8,000)
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Garrett Wilson ($7,500), Dalvin Cook ($6,000), Allen Lazard ($5,400), Brandin Cooks ($5,200), Zach Wilson ($4,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($7,700), Tony Pollard ($7,500), Dak Prescott ($6,600), Breece Hall ($5,900), Michael Gallup ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Cowboys Defense ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: KaVontae Turpin ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: CeeDee Lamb ($7,700), Tony Pollard ($7,500), Dalvin Cook ($6,000), Allen Lazard ($5,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Garrett Wilson ($7,500), Dak Prescott ($6,600), Breece Hall ($5,900), Cowboys Defense ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brandin Cooks ($5,200), Zach Wilson ($4,900) and Michael Gallup ($4,200), Jets Defense ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Kavontae Turpin ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Terry McLaurin ($5,700) and Broncos Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jerry Jeudy ($6,600), Sam Howell ($5,400), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,300), Samaje Perine ($5,100), Jahan Dotson ($4,900), Antonio Gibson ($4,800), Curtis Samuel ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Russell Wilson ($5,800), Javonte Williams ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: Adam Trautman ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson, Jr. ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jerry Jeudy ($6,600), Terry McLaurin ($5,700), Javonte Williams ($5,600), Sam Howell ($5,400), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Antonio Gibson ($4,800), Broncos Defense ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Russell Wilson ($5,800), Samaje Perine ($5,100), Jahan Dotson ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Logan Thomas ($3,100)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($9,000), Jaylen Waddle ($7,700), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600), and Hunter Henry ($4,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400), Raheem Mostert ($5,800), Mac Jones ($5,700), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,200), Kendrick Bourne ($4,900), and Juju Smith-Schuster ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patriots Defense ($2,600)
Lottery Ticket: Mike Gesicki ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600) and Raheem Mostert ($5,800), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,000), Jaylen Waddle ($7,700), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400), Mac Jones ($5,800), Kendrick Bourne ($4,900), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Hunter Henry ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Mike Gesicki ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($7,200), Bryce Young ($5,600), Chubba Hubbard ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derek Carr ($6,000), Jamaal Williams ($6,000) primarily if Kendre Miller is out again, Miles Sanders ($5,700), Juwan Johnson ($4,100), Hayden Hurst ($4,000), Adam Thielen ($3,900), Jonathan Mingo ($3,800), and Saints Defense ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Michael Thomas ($5,500), Rashid Shaheed ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Terrace Marshall Jr. ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($7,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derek Carr ($6,000), Jamaal Williams ($6,000), Bryce Young ($5,600), Michael Thomas ($5,500), Panthers Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,200) and Hayden Hurst ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,800)
Must-Own: Miles Sanders ($5,700)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Deshaun Watson ($6,400), David Njoku ($4,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nick Chubb ($8,500), Najee Harris ($6,200), Amari Cooper ($6,100), Kenny Pickett ($5,400), Jaylen Warren ($4,800), Elijah Moore ($4,500), Pat Freiermuth ($4,500), Allen Robinson II ($4,300), Steelers Defense ($3,400), and Browns Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Donovan Peoples-Jones ($3,700) and Calvin Austin III ($3,500)
Must-Own: George Pickens ($5,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Nick Chubb ($8,500), but worth it if you have excess salary
Fair Value for Expectations: Deshaun Watson ($6,400), Najee Harris ($6,200), Jaylen Warren ($4,800), David Njoku ($4,700), Elijah Moore ($4,700), Steelers Defense ($3,400), Browns Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenny Pickett ($5,400) and Allen Robinson II ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Donovan Peoples-Jones ($3,700)
Must-Own: George Pickens ($5,400)