When it comes to picks against the spread, we place a fairly large importance on the players who will take the field in the final week of the season. Still, it is not completely indicative on what happens in most games. That changes drastically for DFS. We must stay on top of the players who will be inactive on Sunday to avoid adding someone to our roster who simply cannot perform.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 18 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($6,400) and Tee Higgins ($6,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,300), Joe Mixon ($6,300), Jake Browning ($5,700), Jerome Ford ($5,600), Kareem Hunt ($4,700), Tyler Boyd ($4,300), Elijah Moore ($4,200), Trenton Irwin ($3,200), Browns Defense ($3,200), and Bengals Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Jeff Driskel ($4,000)
Must-Own: Chase Brown ($4,600)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amari Cooper ($7700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7300), David Njoku ($6400), Joe Mixon ($6300), Tee Higgins ($6200), Jake Browning ($5700), Jerome Ford ($5600), Kareem Hunt ($4700), Tyler Boyd ($4300), Elijah Moore ($4200), Browns Defense ($3200), Bengals Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chase Brown ($4600)
Lottery Ticket: Trenton Irwin ($3200)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600), Jared Goff ($6,700), and Sam LaPorta ($6,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8,500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700), David Montgomery ($6,400), Ty Chandler ($5,600), Jordan Addison ($5,300), Nick Mullens ($5,100), Alexander Mattison ($5,000), K.J. Osborn ($4,100), Josh Reynolds ($3,300), and Lions Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Vikings Defense ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Johnny Mundt ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8600), Jared Goff ($6700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6700), David Montgomery ($6400), Sam LaPorta ($6200), Jordan Addison ($5300), Nick Mullens ($5100), Alexander Mattison ($5000), Kene Nwangwu ($4200), K.J. Osborn ($4100), Lions Defense ($3100), Vikings Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ty Chandler ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Teddy Bridgewater ($4400) — there are reports that he will retire after this season so, if he gets the start, it could be a fun example of some upside
Must-Own: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaguars Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,300), Trevor Lawrence ($6,800), Calvin Ridley ($6,500), Derrick Henry ($6,400), Evan Engram ($5,400), Tyjae Spears ($4,600), Chig Okonkwo ($3,500), Treylon Burks ($3,400), Titans Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100) and Ryan Tannehill ($4,800)
Lottery Ticket: Christian Kirk ($3,000) – if he is activated off of the IR, he is could provide incredible value at this WR minimum pricing
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaguars Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7300), Trevor Lawrence ($6800), Calvin Ridley ($6500), Derrick Henry ($6400), Evan Engram ($5400), Ryan Tannehill ($4800), Tyjae Spears ($4600), D’Ernest Johnson ($4500), Tank Bigsby ($4100), Titans Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($6100)
Lottery Ticket: Chig Okonkwo ($3500)
Must-Own: None
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Garrett Wilson ($5,900), Trevor Siemian ($4,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($7,200), Bailey Zappe ($4,700), DeMario Douglas ($4,400), Jets Defense ($3,700), Patriots Defense ($3,600), and Tyler Conklin ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ezekiel Elliott ($5,900)
Lottery Ticket: Xavier Gipson ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Garrett Wilson ($5900), Trevor Siemian ($4900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($7200), Ezekiel Elliott ($5900), Bailey Zappe ($4700), Kevin Harris ($4500), DeMario Douglas ($4400), Jets Defense ($3700), Patriots Defense ($3600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Hunter Henry ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Xavier Gipson ($3500)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Alvin Kamara ($7,500) injury concern
Fair Value for Expectations: Chris Olave ($6,700), Bijan Robinson ($6,600), Derek Carr ($5,600), Jamaal Williams ($5,200), Drake London ($5,000), Taylor Heinicke ($4,900), Rashid Shaheed ($4,700), Juwan Johnson ($3,600), Saints Defense ($3,400), and Falcons Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Taysom Hill ($4,600) primarily if Alvin Kamara is out
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Derek Carr ($5600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($7500), Chris Olave ($6700), Jamaal Williams ($5200), Drake London ($5000), Taylor Heinicke ($4900), Tyler Allgeier ($4800), Rashid Shaheed ($4700), Taysom Hill ($4600), Saints Defense ($3400),
Underpriced for Expectation: Falcons Defense ($3000)
Lottery Ticket: Cordarrelle Patterson ($4200)
Must-Own: Bijan Robinson ($6600)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Godwin ($6,300), Baker Mayfield ($6,200), and Buccaneers Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Rachaad White ($7,600), Mike Evans ($7,400), Adam Thielen ($6,000), Chuba Hubbard ($5,500), Bryce Young ($4,800), Trey Palmer ($3,600), Cade Otton ($3,100), Panthers Defense ($2,500), and Tommy Tremble ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: DJ Chark Jr. ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: Ihmir Smith-Marsette ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Baker Mayfield ($6200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Rachaad White ($7600), Mike Evans ($7400), Chris Godwin ($6300), Adam Thielen ($6000), Chuba Hubbard ($5500), Chase Edmonds ($4500), Miles Sanders ($4300), Buccaneers Defense ($3900),
Underpriced for Expectation: Bryce Young ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Panthers Defense ($2500)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Khalil Herbert ($5,700), Roschon Johnson ($5,100), D’Onta Foreman ($4,800), Packers Defense ($3,100), and Bears Defense ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7,200), DJ Moore ($7,000), Jordan Love ($6,600), Romeo Doubs ($5,800), Jayden Reed ($5,700), Christian Watson ($4,700), Dontayvion Wicks ($4,600), Cole Kmet ($4,500), Patrick Taylor ($4100), and Tucker Kraft ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Bo Melton ($3,600)
Must-Own: Aaron Jones ($6,300)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation:
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7200), DJ Moore ($7000), Aaron Jones ($6300), Khalil Herbert ($5700), Jayden Reed ($5700), Roschon Johnson ($5100), D’Onta Foreman ($4800), Christian Watson ($4700), Dontayvion Wicks ($4600), AJ Dillon ($4500), Cole Kmet ($4500), Patrick Taylor ($4100), Packers Defense ($3100), Bears Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($6600), Romeo Doubs ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Bo Melton ($3600)
Must-Own: None, but Jordan Love is on my shortlist of quarterbacks this week
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Courtland Sutton ($6,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($7,900), Zamir White ($6,000), Aidan O’Connell ($5,400), Jakobi Meyers ($5,400), Javonte Williams ($5,300), Jerry Jeudy ($5,100), Jarrett Stidham ($4,900), Samaje Perine ($4,500), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,400), and Raiders Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Broncos Defense ($2,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Courtland Sutton ($6400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($7900), Josh Jacobs ($6200), Zamir White ($6000), Aidan O’Connell ($5400), Jakobi Meyers ($5400), Javonte Williams ($5300), Jerry Jeudy ($5100), Jarrett Stidham ($4900), Ameer Abdullah ($4600), Samaje Perine ($4500), Raiders Defense ($3300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: Broncos Defense ($2800)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($6900)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8700), Jalen Hurts ($8100), D’Andre Swift ($6800), Tyrod Taylor ($5300), Dallas Goedert ($5100), Kenneth Gainwell ($4800), Darren Waller ($4700), Boston Scott ($4300), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4200), Darius Slayton ($4,000), Eagles Defense ($4000), Jalin Hyatt ($3,300), and Giants Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Julio Jones ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Quez Watkins ($3,400)
Must-Own: I am tempted to say A.J. Brown, but with the Eagles likely playing with no incentive – barring a surprising outcome in the Cowboys and Commanders game – I am having some doubts that the Eagles key players play the full game
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyrod Taylor ($5300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($8100), Saquon Barkley ($6900), DeVonta Smith ($6900), D’Andre Swift ($6800), Dallas Goedert ($5100), Darren Waller ($4700), Matt Breida ($4600), Boston Scott ($4300), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4200), Eagles Defense ($4000), Giants Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Gainwell ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Julio Jones ($3900)
Must-Own: A.J. Brown ($8700)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Zach Charbonnet ($5,000) and Seahawks Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($7,200), Kyler Murray ($6,400), James Conner ($6,100), Geno Smith ($6,100), Trey McBride ($6,000), Tyler Lockett ($5,600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,800), Greg Dortch ($4,600), Michael Carter ($4,400), Michael Wilson ($4,400), and Noah Fant ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Walker III ($6,500)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,900)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($6100)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($7200), Kyler Murray ($6400), Geno Smith ($6100), Trey McBride ($6000), Tyler Lockett ($5600), Zach Charbonnet ($5000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4800), Emari Demercado ($4600), Greg Dortch ($4600), Clayton Tune ($4500), Michael Carter ($4400), Michael Wilson ($4400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Walker III ($6500)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3900)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Isiah Pacheco ($7,000) and Travis Kelce ($6,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($6,600), Easton Stick ($5,000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,900), Joshua Palmer ($4,900), Blaine Gabbert ($4,800), La’Mical Perine ($4,400), Quentin Johnson ($4,000), Justin Watson ($3,400), Chiefs Defense ($3,300), and Chargers Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gerald Everett ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Alex Erickson ($3,700)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($7500), Isiah Pacheco ($7000), Rashee Rice ($6800), Austin Ekeler ($6600), Travis Kelce ($6600), Easton Stick ($5000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4900), Joshua Palmer ($4900), Blaine Gabbert ($4800), La’Mical Perine ($4400), Isaiah Spiller ($4400), Joshua Kelley ($4200), Chargers Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gerald Everett ($3900)
Lottery Ticket: Quentin Johnson ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Deebo Samuel ($7,600), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,100), and George Kittle ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Puka Nacua ($7,800), Sam Darnold ($5,200), Jordan Mason ($4,600), Carson Wentz ($4,500), Royce Freeman ($4,400), 49ers Defense ($3,800), Tutu Atwell ($3,300), Ronnie Bell ($3,200), and Rams Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Elijah Mitchell ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Demarcus Robinson ($4,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($3800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Puka Nacua ($7800), Deebo Samuel ($7600), Brandon Aiyuk ($7100), Sam Darnold ($5200), George Kittle ($5200), Jordan Mason ($4600), Carson Wentz ($4500), Rams Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Elijah Mitchell ($5800)
Lottery Ticket: Demarcus Robinson ($4500)
Must-Own: Royce Freeman ($4400)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($6,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($9,300), Dak Prescott ($8,000), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,400), Brandin Cooks ($5,200), Sam Howell ($5,200), Jake Ferguson ($4,900), Antonio Gibson ($4,800), Curtis Samuel ($4,300), Cowboys Defense ($4,100), Logan Thomas ($3,200), and Commanders Defense ($2,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Terry McLaurin ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: Jahan Dotson ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: CeeDee Lamb ($9300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Dak Prescott ($8000), Tony Pollard ($6500), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5400), Brandin Cooks ($5200), Jacoby Brissett ($5000), Jake Ferguson ($4900), Antonio Gibson ($4800), Rico Dowdle ($4600), Deuce Vaughn ($4400), Curtis Samuel ($4300), Derrick Gore ($4200), Cowboys Defense ($4100), Commanders Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Terry McLaurin ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Tutu Atwell ($3300)
Must-Own: None, but I will have some players from Washington at their salaries
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins – Single-Game Showdown Flex Salaries
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Stefon Diggs ($10,200), James Cook ($8,000), Jaylen Waddle ($8,400) injury concern, Raheem Mostert ($7,600) injury concern, Dolphins Defense ($4,000), and Bills Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tua Tagovailoa ($10,000), Gabe Davis ($7,000), Jason Sanders ($5,000), Tyler Bass ($4,800), Cedrick Wilson, Jr. ($4,400), and Durham Smythe ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: De’Von Achane ($9,000) and Dalton Kincaid ($6,200)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($5,200) and Leonard Fournette ($200)
Must-Own: Tyreek Hill ($11,200) and Josh Allen ($11,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($8000), Dolphins Defense ($4000), Bills Defense ($3800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($11000), Stefon Diggs ($10200), Tua Tagovailoa ($10000), Jaylen Waddle ($8400), Dalton Kincaid ($6200), Khalil Shakir ($5200), Jason Sanders ($5000), Tyler Bass ($4800), Cedrick Wilson, Jr. ($4400),
Underpriced for Expectation: De’Von Achane ($9000), Raheem Mostert ($7600), Gabe Davis ($7000)
Lottery Ticket: Durham Smythe ($3000)
Must-Own: Tyreek Hill ($11200)