Not only do we have a lack of bye weeks for this slate of games, but there is also no Monday Night Football and only two games prior to Sunday. This leads to one of our biggest game sets of the season.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 17 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Allen ($8,200), Stefon Diggs ($8,200), Bailey Zappe ($4,800), and Hunter Henry ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Cook ($7,100), Ezekiel Elliott ($6,000), Gabe Davis ($5,500), Latavius Murray ($4,300), Demario Douglas ($4,300), Bills Defense ($3,900), Patriots Defense ($2,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Leonard Fournette ($4,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Stefon Diggs ($8200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($8200), James Cook ($7100), Ezekiel Elliott ($6000), Gabe Davis ($5500), Bailey Zappe ($4800), Leonard Fournette ($4400), Latavius Murray ($4300), Demario Douglas ($4300), Bills Defense ($3900), Patriots Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: Kevin Harris ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Khalil Herbert ($5,400), D’Onta Foreman ($5,000), Roschon Johnson ($4,900), Tyler Allgeier ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7,300), Bijan Robinson ($6,600), DJ Moore ($6,600), Drake London ($5,000), Taylor Heinicke ($4,900), Cole Kmet ($,4700), Kyle Pitts ($4,100), Bears Defense ($3,400), and Falcons Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Robert Tonyan ($2,900)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Khalil Herbert ($5400), Roschon Johnson ($4900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7300), Bijan Robinson ($6600), D’Onta Foreman ($5000), Drake London ($5000), Taylor Heinicke ($4900), Tyler Allgeier ($4800),Cole Kmet ($4700), Bears Defense ($3400), Falcons Defense ($3100)
Underpriced for Expectation: DJ Moore ($6600), Kyle Pitts ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Cordarrelle Patterson ($4300)
Must-Own: None, but I can definitely see myself targeting some players from this game
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Colts Defense ($3,200) and Raiders Defense ($3,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,500), Davante Adams ($7,400), Gardner Minshew II ($5,700), Josh Downs ($5,400), Aidan O’Connell ($5,300), Jakobi Meyers ($5,300), Kylen Granson ($2,700), and Austin Hooper ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zamir White ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: Tre Tucker ($3,300)
Must-Own: Jonathan Taylor ($7,300)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Colts Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman Jr. ($7500), Davante Adams ($7400), Jonathan Taylor ($7300), Gardner Minshew II ($5700), Josh Downs ($5400), Aidan O’Connell ($5300), Jakobi Meyers ($5300), Ameer Abdullah ($4800), Tyler Goodson ($4200), Raiders Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Josh Jacobs ($6200) if he plays, Zamir White ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Alec Pierce ($3900)
Must-Own: None, but Zamir White slides into this category if Josh Jacobs is out again
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rams Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyren Williams ($8,300), Cooper Kupp ($8,100), Puka Nacua ($7,900), Saquon Barkley ($6,900), Matthew Stafford ($6,600), Demarcus Robinson ($4,600), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,000), Darius Slayton ($3,400), Tyler Higbee ($3,300), and Giants Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyrod Taylor ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3,200)
Must-Own: Darren Waller ($4,500)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kyren Williams ($8300), Rams Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($8100), Saquon Barkley ($6900), Matthew Stafford ($6600), Matt Breida ($4700), Demarcus Robinson ($4600), Darren Waller ($4500), Royce Freeman ($4400), Ronnie Rivers ($4200), Giants Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyrod Taylor ($4600)
Lottery Ticket: Darius Slayton ($3400)
Must-Own: Puka Nacua ($7900)
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Gainwell ($5,100) and Eagles Defense ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,600), Jalen Hurts ($8,300), DeVonta Smith ($7,300), D’Andre Swift ($6,500), Kyler Murray ($6,300), James Conner ($5,900), Trey McBride ($5,900), Dallas Goedert ($4,800), Greg Dortch ($4,200), and Cardinals Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Michael Wilson ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Eagles Defense ($4000)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8600), Jalen Hurts ($8300), DeVonta Smith ($7300), D’Andre Swift ($6500), James Conner ($5900), Trey McBride ($5900), Marquise Brown ($5200), Kenneth Gainwell ($5100), Dallas Goedert ($4800), Emari Demercado ($4600), Boston Scott ($4600), Greg Dortch ($4200), Cardinals Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyler Murray ($6300)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3600)
Must-Own: None
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($7,600), Baker Mayfield ($6,100), Chris Godwin ($6,100), Buccaneers Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,800), Alvin Kamara, ($7,500) Chris Olave ($6,800), Derek Carr ($5,500), Taysom Hill ($4,400), Jamaal Williams ($4,300), Juwan Johnson ($3,400), Cade Otton ($3,100), and Saints Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: A.T. Perry ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Baker Mayfield ($6100), Buccaneers Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7800), Rachaad White ($7600), Chris Olave ($6800), Chris Godwin ($6100), Derek Carr ($5500), Rashid Shaheed ($4600), Chase Edmonds ($4400), Taysom Hill ($4400), Jamaal Williams ($4300), Saints Defense ($3100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Alvin Kamara ($7500)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Thomas ($3900) it’s unlikely he’ll play, but if he does surprise, he’s the ideal lottery ticket
Must-Own: None
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,700) and 49ers Defense ($4,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,600), Deebo Samuel ($7,700), Brock Purdy ($7,000), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000), George Kittle ($5,600), Terry McLaurin ($5,500), Antonio Gibson ($5,200), Jacoby Brissett ($4,900), Curtis Samuel ($4,400), Jahan Dotson ($4,100), Commanders Defense ($2,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Logan Thomas ($3,500)
Must-Own: None, but I expect a big game from the 49ers offense, so I will have ownership of all of their top players across my lineups
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson Jr. ($5700), Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4900), 49ers Defense ($4200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9600), Deebo Samuel ($7700), Brock Purdy ($7000), Brandon Aiyuk ($7000), Sam Howell ($5600), George Kittle ($5600), Terry McLaurin ($5500), Antonio Gibson ($5200), Jordan Mason ($4700), Curtis Samuel ($4400), Jahan Dotson ($4100), Commanders Defense ($2000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Elijah Mitchell ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Logan Thomas ($3500)
Must-Own: None
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($6,700), Adam Thielen ($5,900), and Evan Engram ($5,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200), Chuba Hubbard ($5,800), C.J. Beathard ($5,100), Bryce Young ($4,900), Miles Sanders ($4,400), Zay Jones ($4,000), Jaguars Defense ($3,800), DJ Chark Jr. ($3,800), and Panthers Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jonathan Mingo ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Jamal Agnew ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaguars Defense ($3800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7200),Calvin Ridley ($6700), Chuba Hubbard ($5800), Evan Engram ($5700), C.J. Beathard ($5100), Bryce Young ($4900), D’Ernest Johnson ($4600), Miles Sanders ($4400), Tank Bigsby ($4100), Panthers Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($5900)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3500)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400), De’Von Achane ($6,700), and Gus Edwards ($5,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,300), Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Raheem Mostert ($7,000), Zay Flowers ($5,600), Isaiah Likely ($4,600), Odell Beckham Jr. ($4,500), Rashod Bateman ($3,600), and Dolphins Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ravens Defense ($2,800)
Lottery Ticket: Cedric Wilson Jr. ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($7400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9300), Lamar Jackson ($7700), Raheem Mostert ($7000), De’Von Achane ($6700), Gus Edwards ($5900), Justice Hill ($4700), Isaiah Likely ($4600), Melvin Gordon III ($4500), Odell Beckham Jr. ($4500), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4100), Dolphins Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($5600)
Lottery Ticket: Ravens Defense ($2800)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation:
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7200), C.J. Stroud ($7100), Derrick Henry ($6900), Devin Singletary ($5600), Will Levis ($5200), Noah Brown ($5100), Tyjae Spears ($4700), Dalton Schultz ($4300), Robert Woods ($3,700), Titans Defense ($3200), Texans Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($6000)
Lottery Ticket: Treylon Burks ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7200), Derrick Henry ($6900), Devin Singletary ($5600), Will Levis ($5200), Noah Brown ($5100), Tyjae Spears ($4700), Dameon Pierce ($4500), Dalton Schultz ($4300), Texans Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($6000)
Lottery Ticket: Titans Defense ($3200)
Must-Own: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($7100), Kenneth Walker III ($6100) injury concern, and Seahawks Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Geno Smith ($5900), Tyler Lockett ($5700), Jaylen Warren ($5500), George Pickens ($5300), Mason Rudolph ($5000), Najee Harris ($5000), Diontae Johnson ($5000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4800), and Pat Freiermuth ($3700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($3300)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Charbonnet ($4600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Seahawks Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($7100), Kenneth Walker III ($6100), Geno Smith ($5900), Tyler Lockett ($5700), Jaylen Warren ($5500), George Pickens ($5300), Mason Rudolph ($5000), Diontae Johnson ($5000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4800), Zach Charbonnet ($4600), Steelers Defense ($3300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Najee Harris ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: Pat Freiermuth ($3700)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation:
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($6700), Javonte Williams ($5600), Easton Stick ($5100), Jerry Jeudy ($5100), Jarrett Stidham ($4800), Samaje Perine ($4800), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4400), Quentin Johnston ($3,700), and Brandon Johnson ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gerald Everett ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Broncos Defense ($2900) and Chargers Defense ($2900)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Easton Stick ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($6700), Javonte Williams ($5600), Jerry Jeudy ($5100), Samaje Perine ($4800), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4400), Isaiah Spiller ($4400), Joshua Kelley ($4200), Chargers Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Broncos Defense ($2900)
Lottery Ticket: Jarrett Stidham ($4800)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rashee Rice ($6900), Jake Browning ($5800), and Bengals Defense ($2600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7600) if active, Travis Kelce ($7000), Isiah Pacheco ($6800) if active, Tee Higgins ($6500), Joe Mixon ($6400), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5300), Chase Brown ($4700), Tyler Boyd ($4700), La’Mical Perine ($4500) depending on health of Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs Defense ($3600), and Justin Watson ($3400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patrick Mahomes ($7500)
Lottery Ticket: Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,100)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jake Browning ($5800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7600), Travis Kelce ($7000), Rashee Rice ($6900), Isiah Pacheco ($6800), Tee Higgins ($6500), Joe Mixon ($6400), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5300), Chase Brown ($4700), Tyler Boyd ($4700), La’Mical Perine ($4500), Chiefs Defense ($3600), Bengals Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patrick Mahomes ($7500)
Lottery Ticket: Justin Watson ($3400)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – Single-Game Showdown Flex Salaries
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Romeo Doubs ($9,000), and K.J. Osborn ($6,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Love ($11,000), Ty Chandler ($8,200), Jordan Addison ($7,800), Jayden Reed ($7,400), Tucker Kraft ($5,800), Dontavyion Wicks ($5,600), AJ Dillon ($5,400), Josh Oliver ($5,200), Greg Joseph ($5,000), Anders Carlson ($4,800), Vikings Defense ($4,000), Packers Defense ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($9,800)
Lottery Ticket: Alexander Mattison ($4,400)
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($12,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Nick Mullens ($10400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Love ($11000), Romeo Doubs ($9000), Jayden Reed ($7400), Christian Watson ($7000), K.J. Osborn ($6400), Tucker Kraft ($5800), Dontavyion Wicks ($5600), AJ Dillon ($5400), Josh Oliver ($5200), Greg Joseph ($5000), Anders Carlson ($4800), Vikings Defense ($4000), Packers Defense ($3600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($9800), Ty Chandler ($8200), Jordan Addison ($7800)
Lottery Ticket: Alexander Mattison ($4400)
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($12000)