The nature of this week’s schedule forced us to split the slate’s pricing into Sunday’s main slate and then the next four games — Sunday night and Monday — as a bundle. This is common for us with the Primetime games, but it felt noteworthy here since it groups nine and four games together in terms of pricing, respectively.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Note: Luke was sick this week and unable to contribute to this article. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause and hope that he recovers quickly!
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Zack Moss ($6500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman Jr. ($7400), Jonathan Taylor ($7200), Gardner Minshew II ($5900), Josh Downs ($5500), Drake London ($5100), Taylor Heinicke ($4800), Tyler Allgeier ($4600), Alec Pierce ($4000), Colts Defense ($3800), Falcons Defense ($3300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyle Pitts ($4000)
Lottery Ticket: Cordarrelle Patterson ($4300)
Must-Own: Bijan Robinson ($6300)
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Seahawks Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derrick Henry ($6800), DK Metcalf ($6700), Kenneth Walker III ($6200), DeAndre Hopkins ($6100), Geno Smith ($5800), Tyler Lockett ($5600), Will Levis ($5200) if he starts, Zach Charbonnet ($5000), Tyjae Spears ($4700), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4500), DeeJay Dallas ($4300), Titans Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ryan Tannehill ($5000) if he starts
Lottery Ticket: Chig Okonkwo ($3100)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jordan Addison ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8200), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7000), Jared Goff ($6900), David Montgomery ($6900), Sam LaPorta ($6400), T.J. Hockenson ($5800), Nick Mullens ($5300), Alexander Mattison ($5300), Kene Nwangwu ($4400), Lions Defense ($3500), Vikings Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ty Chandler ($5600) only if Mattison is out
Lottery Ticket: K.J. Osborn ($3900)
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($8100)
Washington Commanders at New York Jets
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Sam Howell ($6200) and Brian Robinson Jr. ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($6100), Garrett Wilson ($5800), Terry McLaurin ($5700), Antonio Gibson ($5200), Curtis Samuel ($4800), Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4500), Dalvin Cook ($4400), Jahan Dotson ($4400), Commanders Defense ($3700),
Underpriced for Expectation: Jets Defense ($3100)
Lottery Ticket: Trevor Siemian ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chuba Hubbard ($5700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Love ($6500), Adam Thielen ($5900), Jayden Reed ($5400), Romeo Doubs ($5300), AJ Dillon ($4900), Bryce Young ($4700), Christian Watson ($4700), Miles Sanders ($4400), Packers Defense ($3900), Panthers Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6400) if he plays
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3600)
Must-Own: None
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Browns Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: C.J. Stroud ($7000) if he plays, Nico Collins ($6800), Joe Flacco ($5500), Devin Singletary ($5500), Jerome Ford ($5400), Noah Brown ($5200), Case Keenum ($4900) if Stroud is out, Kareem Hunt ($4800), Dalton Schultz ($4600), Dameon Pierce ($4500), Elijah Moore ($4200), Robert Woods ($4100), Texans Defense ($3600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Amari Cooper ($6400)
Lottery Ticket: David Njoku ($5300)
Must-Own: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Baker Mayfield ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7600), Rachaad White ($7400), Trevor Lawrence ($6600), Travis Etienne Jr. ($6600), Calvin Ridley ($6300), Chris Godwin ($6200), D’Ernest Johnson ($4900), Chase Edmonds ($4400), Jaguars Defense ($2900), Buccaneers Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Evan Engram ($5400) and Zay Jones ($4200)
Lottery Ticket: Jamal Agnew ($3400)
Must-Own: None
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Bears Defense ($2800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7100), DJ Moore ($6900), James Conner ($5900), Trey McBride ($5700), Marquise Brown ($5000), D’Onta Foreman ($4700), Emari Demercado ($4600), Khalil Herbert ($4600), Cole Kmet ($4400), Cardinals Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Roschon Johnson ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3500)
Must-Own: Kyler Murray ($6400)
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($9600)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($9200), Dak Prescott ($7900), Tua Tagovailoa ($7800), Jaylen Waddle ($7800), Raheem Mostert ($7300), De’Von Achane ($7100), Tony Pollard ($6700), Rico Dowdle ($4500), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4200), Dolphins Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brandin Cooks ($4900) and Jake Ferguson ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: Cowboys Defense ($3000)
Must-Own: None
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Bailey Zappe ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Courtland Sutton ($6200), Russell Wilson ($5900), Ezekiel Elliott ($5900), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5800), Javonte Williams ($5800), Jerry Jeudy ($4600), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4100), Broncos Defense ($3300), Patriots Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Samaje Perine ($4500)
Lottery Ticket: Kevin Harris ($4700)
Must-Own: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($7500), Davante Adams ($7300), Rashee Rice ($6500), Isiah Pacheco ($6400), Josh Jacobs ($6300), Aidan O’Connell ($5200), Jerick McKinnon ($5200), Zamir White ($5000), Ameer Abdullah ($4900), Chiefs Defense ($3200), Raiders Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($5200)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Mayer ($3300)
Must-Own: Travis Kelce ($7500)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Eagles Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8500), Jalen Hurts ($7600), DeVonta Smith ($7100), Saquon Barkley ($6800), D’Andre Swift ($6000), Tommy DeVito ($5000), Dallas Goedert ($4700), Matt Breida ($4500), Boston Scott ($4300), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3900), Darius Slayton ($3400), Giants Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Gainwell ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Darren Waller ($4500)
Must-Own: None
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($3000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Deebo Samuel ($7700), Lamar Jackson ($7400), Brock Purdy ($6700), Brandon Aiyuk ($6700), Gus Edwards ($5700), George Kittle ($5500), Justice Hill ($4700), Odell Beckham Jr. ($4300), Isaiah Likely ($4200), Ravens Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($5500)
Lottery Ticket: Jordan Mason ($4600)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($9500)