Even though there are no teams on a bye this week, the three games on Saturday leads us to a smaller slate for Sunday. We’ll have to dig a little bit deeper because, in addition to the fewer teams, there is an increase in injury news at this time of year.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 14 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D.J. Moore ($6,900), D’Onta Foreman ($5,000), Kareem Hunt ($4,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7,000), Amari Cooper ($6,000), Joe Flacco ($5,500), David Njoku ($4,700), Elijah Moore ($4,500), Cole Kmet ($4,500), Browns Defense ($3,500), Bears Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerome Ford ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joe Flacco ($5500), Elijah Moore ($4500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7000), DJ Moore ($6900), Amari Cooper ($6000), Jerome Ford ($5500), D’Onta Foreman ($5000), Kareem Hunt ($4900), Khalil Herbert ($4700), David Njoku ($4700), Cole Kmet ($4500), Browns Defense ($3500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bears Defense ($3300)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($3400)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Godwin ($5,900), A.J. Dillon ($5,300),
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,500), Rachaad White ($7,000), Aaron Jones assuming he is active, Jordan Love ($6,200), Baker Mayfield ($5,700), Romeo Doubs ($5,300), DOntayvion Wicks ($4,000), Cade Otton ($3,200), Trey Palmer ($3,100), Tucker Kraft ($3,000), Packers Defense ($3,000), and Buccaneers Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jayden Reed ($4,900) if active
Lottery Ticket: Patrick Taylor ($4,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($7500), Rachaad White ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Love ($6200), Chris Godwin ($5900), Baker Mayfield ($5700), AJ Dillon ($5300), Romeo Doubs ($5300), Jayden Reed ($4900), Christian Watson ($4800), Chase Edmonds ($4400), Packers Defense ($3000), Buccaneers Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6500), Cade Otton ($3200)
Lottery Ticket: Patrick Taylor ($4300)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7,100), Nico Collins ($7,000), Titans Defense ($3,700), and Texans Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: DeAndre Hopkins ($6,200), Will Levis ($5,400), Devin Singletary ($5,400), Noah Brown ($5,000), Dalton Schultz ($4,900), Tyjae Spears ($4,800), Robert Woods ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,200)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($6,900)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7100) if he plays
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7000), Derrick Henry ($6900), DeAndre Hopkins ($6200), Devin Singletary ($5400), Noah Brown ($5000), Davis Mills ($4900) if C.J. Stroud is out, Dalton Schultz ($4900), Tyjae Spears ($4800), Dameon Pierce ($4700), Robert Woods ($4200), Titans Defense ($3700), Texans Defense ($3400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3400)
Must-Own: None
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($9,900) injury related, Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900), Jaylen Waddle ($7,400), De’Von Achane ($7,200) injury related, and Zach Wilson ($4,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Raheem Mostert ($7,100), Breece Hall ($6,400), Garrett Wilson ($5,800), Dolphins Defense ($4,000), Tyler Conklin ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jets Defense ($2,500)
Lottery Ticket: Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($7900), Jaylen Waddle ($7400)
Fair Value for Expectations: De’Von Achane ($7200), Raheem Mostert ($7100), Breece Hall ($6400), Zach Wilson ($4900), Dalvin Cook ($4400), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4300), Dolphins Defense ($4000), Jets Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Garrett Wilson ($5800),
Lottery Ticket: Tyreek Hill ($9900) one of the rare examples of a lottery ticket with a high salary, but that’s the point – he can easily disappoint or win the slate on his own
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rashee Rice ($6,100), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900) injury related, and Chiefs Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($7,800), Travis Kelce ($7,600), Bailey Zappe ($5,000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,000), Juju Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson ($3,400), Hunter Henry ($3,200), and Patriots Defense ($2,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerrick McKinnon ($5,100) and Demario Davis ($3,900) assuming he is active
Lottery Ticket: Kadarius Toney ($3,100)
Must-Own: Ezekiel Elliott ($5,800)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($7800), Travis Kelce ($7600), Rashee Rice ($6100), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5900), Ezekiel Elliott ($5800), Bailey Zappe ($5000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5000),
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerick McKinnon ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Patriots Defense ($2300)
Must-Own: None
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($7,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8,600), Saquon Barkley ($7,300), Derek Carr ($5,800), Taysom Hill ($5,500), Tommy DeVito ($5,000), Saints Defense ($3,800), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700), A.T. Perry ($3,500), Jalin Hyatt ($3,200), and Giants Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Darren Waller ($4,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($7300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8600), Chris Olave ($7100), Derek Carr ($5800), Taysom Hill ($5500), Tommy DeVito ($5000), Matt Breida ($4600), Jamaal Williams ($4300), Saints Defense ($3800), Giants Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4300) if he plays
Lottery Ticket: Wan’Dale Robinson ($3700)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($6,300), Drake London ($5,400), Desmond Ridder ($5,200), and Bryce Young ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($6,800), Chuba Hubbard ($5,600), Miles Sanders ($4,400), Kyle Pitts ($4,000), Falcons Defense ($3,600), Panthers Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,900)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Falcons Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Adam Thielen ($6300), Chuba Hubbard ($5600), Drake London ($5400), Desmond Ridder ($5200), Miles Sanders ($4400), Tyler Allgeier ($4400), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4200), Kyle Pitts ($4000), Jonathan Mingo ($3900), Panthers Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bijan Robinson ($6800)
Lottery Ticket: Bryce Young ($4800)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: None
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($7,800), Kyren Williams ($7,500), Puka Nacua ($7,300), Sam Howell ($6,300), Terry McLaurin ($5,600), Jahan Dotson ($4,700), Curtis Samuel ($4,600), Logan Thomas ($3,700), Tyler Higbee ($3,600), Rams Defense ($3,100), and Commanders Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($6,000)
Lottery Ticket: Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4,500)
Must-Own: Antonio Gibson ($5,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kyren Williams ($7500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($7800), Puka Nacua ($7300), Sam Howell ($6300), Matthew Stafford ($6000), Terry McLaurin ($5600), Jahan Dotson ($4700), Curtis Samuel ($4600), Logan Thomas ($3700), Tyler Higbee ($3600), Rams Defense ($3100), Commanders Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4500)
Lottery Ticket: Tutu Atwell ($3500)
Must-Own: Antonio Gibson ($5200)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($4,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,300), Deebo Samuel ($7,700), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), Brock Purdy ($6,800), George Kittle ($5,800), James Conner ($5,700), Trey McBride ($5,200), Marquise Brown ($5,100), and Greg Dortch ($4,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyler Murray ($6,400)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,400)
Must-Own: None, but Kyler Murray is close
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($4400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Deebo Samuel ($7700), Brandon Aiyuk ($7200), Brock Purdy ($6800), Kyler Murray ($6400), George Kittle ($5800), James Conner ($5700), Trey McBride ($5200), Marquise Brown ($5100), Jordan Mason ($4600), Elijah Mitchell ($4400), 49ers Defense ($4400), Cardinals Defense ($2200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Greg Dortch ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3400)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($9300)
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($8,000), James Cook ($6,300), and Cowboys Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($9,200), Stefon Diggs ($8,400), Josh Allen ($8,200), Tony Pollard ($6,700),Gabe Davis ($5,500) ,Jake Ferguson ($4,800) Dalton Kincaid ($5,300), Brandin Cooks ($5,200), and Bills Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Khalil Shakir ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Gallup ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($8000) and Cowboys Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($9200), Stefon Diggs ($8400), Josh Allen ($8200), Tony Pollard ($6700), James Cook ($6300), Dalton Kincaid ($5300), Brandin Cooks ($5200), Rico Dowdle ($4600), Latavius Murray ($4400), Khalil Shakir ($3800), Bills Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gabe Davis ($5500) and Jake Ferguson ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Gallup ($3300)
Must-Own: None, but I will probably use someone from the Bills in most of my lineups
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Gus Edwards ($5,700) and Ravens Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7,600), Travis Etienne, Jr. ($6,800), Calvin Ridley ($6,200), Zay Flowers ($5,900), Keaton Mitchell ($5,100), Odell Beckham, Jr. ($4,200), Zay Jones ($4,000), Isaiah Likely ($4,000), Jaguars Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Evan Engram ($5,400)
Lottery Ticket: Rashod Bateman ($3,200)
Must-Own: Trevor Lawrence ($6,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ravens Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7600), Travis Etienne, Jr. ($6800), Zay Flowers ($5900), Gus Edwards ($5700), Evan Engram ($5400), Keaton Mitchell ($5100), Tank Bigsby ($4800), Odell Beckham, Jr. ($4200), Jaguars Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Trevor Lawrence ($6400)
Lottery Ticket: Nelson Agholor ($3000)
Must-Own: Calvin Ridley ($6200)
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DeVonta Smith ($7,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($7,800), Kenneth Walker III ($6,200), D’Andre Swift ($6,100), Geno Smith ($5,700), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,700), Dallas Goedert ($4,600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,500), Eagles Defense ($3,500), Seahawks Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyler Lockett ($5,400)
Lottery Ticket: Quez Watkins ($3,000)
Must-Own: A.J. Brown ($8600) and DK Metcalf ($6,800)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: A.J. Brown ($8600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($7800), DeVonta Smith ($7000), DK Metcalf ($6800), Kenneth Walker III ($6200), D’Andre Swift ($6100), Geno Smith ($5700), Kenneth Gainwell ($4700), Dallas Goedert ($4600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4500), Eagles Defense ($3500), Seahawks Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyler Lockett ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Charbonnet ($4900)
Must-Own: None