As we move toward the end of the season, we also move into bigger slates on a more regular basis. Bye weeks are starting to come to an end, and we will deal with a large number of games this weekend.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 14 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Godwin ($6,000), Tyler Allgeier ($4,400), and Buccaneers Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,700), Rachaad White ($6,800), Bijan Robinson ($6,500), Baker Mayfield ($5,300), Desmond Ridder ($5,000), Drake London ($4,600), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,200), Trey Palmer ($3,200), Cade Otton ($3,100), and Falcons Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Kyle Pitts ($3,700)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Buccaneers Defense ($3800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7700), Rachaad White ($6800), Bijan Robinson ($6500), Baker Mayfield ($5300), Desmond Ridder ($5000), Drake London ($4600), Tyler Allgeier ($4400), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4200), Falcons Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chris Godwin ($6000)
Lottery Ticket: Kyle Pitts ($3700)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: David Montgomery ($6,400), Sam LaPorta ($6,100), D’Onta Foreman ($5,200), Khalil Herbert ($5,100), and Roschon Johnson ($4,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600), DJ Moore ($6,500), Jared Goff ($6,400), Cole Kmet ($4,300), Jameson Williams ($3,500), Lions Defense ($3,400), Bears Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Justin Fields ($6,800)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8200), Roschon Johnson ($4900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($6800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6600), Jared Goff ($6400), David Montgomery ($6400), Sam LaPorta ($6100), D’Onta Foreman ($5200), Khalil Herbert ($5100), Cole Kmet ($4300), Lions Defense ($3400), Bears Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: DJ Moore ($6500)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($3300)
Must-Own: None
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600), Colts Defense ($3,500), and Bengals Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,300), Joe Mixon ($6,100), Tee Higgins ($5,900), Jake Browning ($5,200), Josh Downs ($4,900), and Tyler Boyd ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gardner Minshew II ($5,400)
Lottery Ticket: Tanner Hudson ($2,800)
Must-Own: Zack Moss ($5,900)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Trayveon Williams ($4700), Colts Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman Jr. ($7300), Joe Mixon ($6100), Tee Higgins ($5900), Jake Browning ($5200), Josh Downs ($4900), Tyler Boyd ($4400), Bengals Defense ($3100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gardner Minshew II ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Ja’Marr Chase ($7600)
Must-Own: Zack Moss ($5900)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Trevor Lawrence ($6,700) if active and Jaguars Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,000), Amari Cooper ($5,800) if active, Jerome Ford ($5,500), Kareem Hunt ($4,800), Evan Engram ($4,800), D’Ernest Johnson ($4,700), David Njoku ($4,100), Zay Jones ($3,700), and Browns Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($6,400)
Lottery Ticket: Joe Flacco ($4,700) assuming he starts again this week
Must-Own: Elijah Moore ($4,500) again, assuming Joe Flacco is starting
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Trevor Lawrence ($6700) if he plays at all, Christian Kirk ($6000), Jaguars Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7000), Calvin Ridley ($6400), Amari Cooper ($5800), C.J. Beathard ($4900) if Lawrence is out, Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4800), Kareem Hunt ($4800), Evan Engram ($4800), D’Ernest Johnson ($4700), Browns Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($4100)
Lottery Ticket: Joe Flacco ($4700) if he starts
Must-Own: Jerome Ford ($5500)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($7,000), Adam Thielen ($6,300), and Saints Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derek Carr ($5,600), Chuba Hubbard ($5,600), Taysom Hill ($5,400) if active, Bryce Young ($4,900), Miles Sanders ($4,300), A.T. Perry ($3,500), D.J. Chark Jr. ($3,300), and Panthers Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jonathan Mingo ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Rashid Shaheed ($4,300) if active
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($8,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($3900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8200), Chris Olave ($7000), Adam Thielen ($6300), Derek Carr ($5600), Chuba Hubbard ($5600), Taysom Hill ($5400), Bryce Young ($4900), Jamaal Williams ($4300), Miles Sanders ($4300), Panthers Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4300)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3500)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7,600), Nico Collins ($7,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($6,200), Devin Singletary ($5,700), Garrett Wilson ($5,500), Dameon Pierce ($5,000), Noah Brown ($5,000), Robert Woods ($4,200), Texans Defense ($4,000), Brevin Jordan ($3,100), Jets Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyler Conklin ($3,000)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Wilson ($4,700)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7600), Nico Collins ($7600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($6200), Devin Singletary ($5700), Dameon Pierce ($5000), Noah Brown ($5000), Dalton Schultz ($5000), Dalvin Cook ($4400), Robert Woods ($4200), Texans Defense ($4000),
Underpriced for Expectation: Garrett Wilson ($5500), Jets Defense ($2900)
Lottery Ticket: Zach Wilson ($4700)
Must-Own: None, but dare I say that Garrett Wilson is close?
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cooper Kupp ($7,400), Puka Nacua ($7,100), and Gus Edwards ($5,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Kyren Williams ($7,300), Matthew Stafford ($6,000), Zay Flowers ($5,700), Keaton Mitchell ($4,900), Ravens Defense ($3,300), Rashod Bateman ($3,200), Rams Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Isaiah Likely ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Lamar Jackson ($7700), Puka Nacua ($7100), Ravens Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($7400), Kyren Williams ($7300), Matthew Stafford ($6000), Gus Edwards ($5900), Keaton Mitchell ($4900), Rams Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($5700)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($3800)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Jefferson ($8,500), Davante Adams ($7,500), and Aidan O’Connell ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Jacobs ($6,900), T.J. Hockenson ($6,000), Joshua Dobbs ($5,900), Jakobi Meyers ($5,700), Alexander Mattison ($5,500), Jordan Addison ($5,500), Raiders Defense ($3,200), and Vikings Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Ty Chandler ($4,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Aidan O’Connell ($5100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8500), Davante Adams ($7500), T.J. Hockenson ($6000), Joshua Dobbs ($5900), Jakobi Meyers ($5700), Jordan Addison ($5500), Raiders Defense ($3200), Vikings Defense ($3100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Josh Jacobs ($6900)
Lottery Ticket: Alexander Mattison ($5500)
Must-Own: None
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Walker III ($6,300) and 49ers Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900), Deebo Samuel ($6,800), DK Metcalf ($6,700), Brock Purdy ($6,500), George Kittle ($5,900), Geno Smith ($5,700), Zach Charbonnet ($5,400), Seahawks Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyler Lockett ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($9,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brandon Aiyuk ($6900), Brock Purdy ($6500), 49ers Defense ($3700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9200), DK Metcalf ($6700), Kenneth Walker III ($6300), George Kittle ($5900), Geno Smith ($5700), Tyler Lockett ($5600), Zach Charbonnet ($5400), Seahawks Defense ($2400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deebo Samuel ($6800)
Lottery Ticket: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4100)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($6,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($8,800), Josh Allen ($8,300), Patrick Mahomes ($7,900), Travis Kelce ($7,800), Gabe Davis ($5,800), Dalton Kincaid ($5,500), Rashee Rice ($5,400), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,200), Justin Watson ($3,600), Chiefs Defense ($2,600), Bills Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerick McKinnon ($4800) and Khalil Shakir ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Kadarius Toney ($3,100)
Must-Own: None, but I do like the possibility of capitalizing on some of the cheap value in this potential high-scoring affair
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Isiah Pacheco ($6700), James Cook ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($8800), Josh Allen ($8300), Patrick Mahomes ($7900), Travis Kelce ($7800), Gabe Davis ($5800), Dalton Kincaid ($5500), Rashee Rice ($5400), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4200), Chiefs Defense ($2600), Bills Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jerick McKinnon ($4800),
Lottery Ticket: Justin Watson ($3600)
Must-Own: None
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chargers Defense ($3,200) and Broncos Defense ($2,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($8,600), Austin Ekeler ($7,600), Justin Herbert ($7,500), Courtland Sutton ($61,00), Russell Wilson ($5,800), Javonte Williams ($5,800), Joshua Kelley ($4,700), Samaje Perine ($4,600) if active, and Gerald Everett ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jalen Guyton ($3,200)
Lottery Ticket: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,100) primarily if Perine is out
Must-Own: Jerry Jeudy ($4,700)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Russell Wilson ($5800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($8600), Austin Ekeler ($7600), Justin Herbert ($7500), Courtland Sutton ($6100), Javonte Williams ($5800), Joshua Kelley ($4700), Jerry Jeudy ($4700), Samaje Perine ($4600), Gerald Everett ($3400), Chargers Defense ($3200), Broncos Defense ($2800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jalen Guyton ($3200)
Lottery Ticket: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4100)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DeVonta Smith ($7,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,300), Dak Prescott ($7,400), Tony Pollard ($6,600), D’Andre Swift ($5,900), Brandin Cooks ($5,300), Dallas Goedert ($4,700), Jake Ferguson ($4,500), Cowboys Defense ($3,100), Eagles Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($7,500)
Lottery Ticket: Quez Watkins ($3,000)
Must-Own: CeeDee Lamb ($8,700)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($5900)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8300), Jalen Hurts ($7500), Dak Prescott ($7400), DeVonta Smith ($7100), Brandin Cooks ($5300), Kenneth Gainwell ($4900), Dallas Goedert ($4700), Jake Ferguson ($4500), Cowboys Defense ($3100), Eagles Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($6600)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Gallup ($3500)
Must-Own: CeeDee Lamb ($8700)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) and Dolphins Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,300), De’Von Achane ($7,000), Raheem Mostert ($6,700), Derrick Henry ($6,500), and Tyjae Spears ($5,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100) and Will Levis ($5,300)
Lottery Ticket: Chig Okonokwo ($3,100)
Must-Own: Tyreek Hill ($9,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: De’Von Achane ($7000) and Dolphins Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9200), Jaylen Waddle ($7500), Tua Tagovailoa ($7300), Raheem Mostert ($6700), Derrick Henry ($6500), Tyjae Spears ($5000), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4300), Titans Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($5300)
Lottery Ticket: Chig Okonokwo ($3100)
Must-Own: DeAndre Hopkins ($6100)
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6,000) if active at all and Christian Watson ($4,600) since he is trending towards being inactive
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($7,100), Jordan Love ($6,000), AJ Dillon ($5,300), Tommy DeVito ($5,100), Jayden Reed ($4,700), Patrick Taylor ($4,400) assuming Aaron Jones is out, Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700), Packers Defense ($3,700), Tucker Kraft ($3,000), and Giants Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Romeo Doubs ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Aaron Jones ($6000), AJ Dillon ($5300), Tommy DeVito ($5100), Romeo Doubs ($5000), Jayden Reed ($4700), Christian Watson ($4600), Patrick Taylor ($4400), Matt Breida ($4200), Packers Defense ($3700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Giants Defense ($2800)
Lottery Ticket: Wan’Dale Robinson ($3700)
Must-Own: Saquon Barkley ($7100)