With fewer bye weeks ahead of us, we have the smallest slate for the rest of the season laid out in Week 13. As always, the shorter list of games does not necessarily mean a lack of value. If anything, it means we have to equally consider all options before settling on anything.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 13 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100) and Will Levis ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,100), Derrick Henry ($6,800), Gardner Minshew II ($5,300), Josh Downs ($5,100), Tyjae Spears ($4,400), Colts Defense ($3,200), and Titans Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Treylon Burks ($3,400)
Must-Own: Zack Moss ($4,600)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman, Jr. ($7,100), Tyjae Spears ($4,400), Colts Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100), Gardner Minshew II ($5,300), Will Levis ($5,200), Joshua Downs ($5,100), Zack Moss (4,600), Titans Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Derrick Henry ($6,800)
Lottery Ticket: Chig Okonkwo ($3,100)
Must-Own: None, but Henry is close
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Herbert ($8,000), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,800), and Chargers Defense ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($9,000), Austin Ekeler ($8,300), Quentin Johnston ($4,000), Gerald Everett ($3,500), Jalen Guyton ($3,300), DeVante Parker ($3,300), Juju Smith-Schuster ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000)
Lottery Ticket: Bailey Zappe ($4,800) and Tyquan Thornton ($3,000)
Must-Own: Hunter Henry ($3,100)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Keenan Allen ($9,000), Mac Jones ($4,800), Bailey Zappe ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,300), Justin Herbert ($8,000), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000), Joshua Kelley ($4,900), Ezekiel Elliott ($4,500), Chargers Defense ($4,000), Patriots Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeVante Parker ($3,300), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,200), and Hunter Henry ($3,100)
Lottery Ticket: Jalen Guyton ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: None
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500), Chris Olave ($6,900) if active, Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700), Jared Goff ($6,500), David Montgomery ($6,500), Derek Carr ($5,600), Sam LaPorta ($5,600), Taysom Hill ($5,200), Jameson Williams ($3,600), Juwan Johnson ($3,400), A.T. Perry ($3,300), Lions Defense ($3,000), and Saints Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Josh Reynolds ($3,400)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($8,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jared Goff ($6,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500), Chris Olave ($6,900), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700), David Montgomery ($6,500), Derek Carr ($5,600), Taysom Hill ($5,200), Jamaal Williams ($4,300), Lions Defense ($3,000), Saints Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Sam LaPorta ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: Kalif Raymond ($3,200)
Must-Own: Alvin Kamara ($8,200)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Garrett Wilson ($6,000), Desmond Ridder ($5,000), Drake London ($4,900), and Tim Boyle ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($6,700), Breece Hall ($6,400), Tyler Allgeier ($4,500), Kyle Pitts ($3,800), Falcons Defense ($3,400), Allen Lazard ($3,200), and Tyler Conklin ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Jets Defense ($3,500)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tim Boyle ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($6,700), Breece Hall ($6,400), Garrett Wilson ($6,000), Desmond Ridder ($5,000), Drake London ($4,900), Tyler Allgeier ($4,500), Falcons Defense ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kyle Pitts ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,100)
Must-Own: Jets Defense ($3,500)
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kenny Pickett ($5,100) and Steelers Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyler Murray ($7,000), James Conner ($5,800), Jaylen Warren ($5,400), Najee Harris ($5,200), Marquise Brown ($5,200), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Trey McBride ($4,900), George Pickens ($4,800), Pat Freiermuth ($4,300), and Cardinals Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Greg Dortch ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Warren ($5,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyler Murray ($7,000), James Conner ($5,800), Najee Harris ($5,200), Malcolm Brown ($5,200), Kenny Pickett ($5,100), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Trey McBride ($4,900), George Pickens ($4,800), Steelers Defense ($3,800), Cardinals Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rondale Moore ($3,400)
Lottery Ticket: Greg Dortch ($3,700)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,100), and Dolphins Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,600), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900), Raheem Mostert ($7,300), Sam Howell ($6,200), Terry McLaurin ($5,500), Jahan Dotson ($4,600), Antonio Gibson ($4,500), Curtis Samuel ($4,100), and Logan Thomas ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: De’Von Achane ($6,900) not your typical lottery ticket, but he is an extremely high-risk, high-reward target this week
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900) and Dolphins Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,600), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), Raheem Mostert ($7,300), De’Von Achane ($6,900), Brian Robinson ($6,100), Terry McLaurin ($5,500), Antonio Gibson ($4,500), Commanders Defense ($2,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Sam Howell ($6,200) and Jahan Dotson ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Curtis Samuel ($4,100)
Must-Own: None, but I might use someone from Washington in my lineup for the potential ‘sleeper’ play
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($8,100), Devin Singletary ($5,900), Dameon Pierce ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tank Dell ($7,400), Nico Collins ($6,800), Russell Wilson ($5,700), Javante Williams ($5,700), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Samaje Perine ($4,800), Jerry Jeudy ($4,700), Texans Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Noah Brown ($4,500) if active
Lottery Ticket: Robert Woods ($3,900) if Noah Brown is inactive, and Broncos Defense ($2,700)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Devin Singletary ($5,900) and Javonte Williams ($5,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: C.J. Stroud ($8,100), Tank Dell ($7,400), Russell Wilson ($5,700), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Dameon Pierce ($5,100), Samaje Perine ($4,800), Jerry Jeudy ($4,700), Texans Defense ($3,300), Broncos Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Nico Collins ($6,800)
Lottery Ticket: Robert Woods ($3,900) if Noah Brown doesn’t play
Must-Own: None
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Godwin ($6,300) and Buccaneers Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,700), Adam Thielen ($6,600), Rachaad White ($6,300), Baker Mayfield ($5,500), Chuba Hubbard ($5,300), Bryce Young ($4,900), Miles Sanders ($4,300), D.J. Chark ($3,200), Trey Palmer ($3,200), and Panthers Defense (2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jonathan Mingo ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Cade Otton ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Buccaneers Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,700), Rachaad White ($6,300), Chris Godwin ($6,300), Baker Mayfield ($5,500), Chuba Hubbard ($5,300), Miles Sanders ($4,300), Panthers Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bryce Young ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,300)
Must-Own: Adam Thielen ($6,600)
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cooper Kupp ($7,800), Puka Nacua ($7,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyren William ($7,200), Matthew Stafford ($5,900), Amari Cooper ($5,700), Jerome Ford ($5,500), Kareem Hunt ($4,700), David Njoku ($4,100), Tyler Higbee ($3,700), Rams Defense ($3,700), Elijah Moore ($3,500), and Browns Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Joe Flacco ($4,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($7,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($7,800), Kyren Williams ($7,200), Matthew Stafford ($5,900), Amari Cooper ($5,700), Jerome Ford ($5,500), Kareem Hunt ($4,700), Joe Flacco ($4,600), David Njoku ($4,100), Browns Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rams Defense ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: Tutu Atwell ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($6,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,900), A.J. Brown ($8,800), Jalen Hurts ($8,200), DeVonta Smith ($7,300), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), Deebo Samuel ($6,200), George Kittle ($6,200), Brock Purdy ($6,100), 49ers Defense ($3,000), and Eagles Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Julio Jones ($3,100)
Must-Own: None, but I think one of the trio of 49ers pass catchers may be the surprise leading scorer from this game so I will likely sprinkle those three into most of my lineups
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D’Andre Swift ($6,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,800), Jalen Hurts ($8,200), DeVonta Smith ($7,300), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), Deebo Samuel ($6,200), George Kittle ($6,200), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,500), 49ers Defense ($3,000), Eagles Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brock Purdy ($6,100)
Lottery Ticket: Jauan Jennings ($3,500)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($9,000)
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Kelce ($7,800), Patrick Mahomes ($7,700), Isiah Pacheco ($6,700), Jordan Love ($5,800), Rashee Rice ($5,700), Christian Watson ($4,900), Romeo Doubs ($4,800), Justin Watson ($3,400), Tucker Kraft ($2,800), and Packers Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: A.J. Dillon ($5,300)
Lottery Ticket: Jayden Reed ($4,500) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,100)
Must-Own: None, but this oddly feels like a game where A.J. Dillon finally capitalizes on Aaron Jones’ absence, so he is close for me
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Kelce ($7,800), Patrick Mahomes ($7,700), Isiah Pacheco ($6,700), Rashee Rice ($5,700), Christian Watson ($4,700), Jerick McKinnon ($4,600), Romeo Doubs ($4,600), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,400), Packers Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Marquez Valdez-Scantling ($3,100)
Must-Own: A.J. Dillon ($5,300)
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), Tee Higgins ($6,000), and Jake Browning ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100), Calvin Ridley ($6,600), Joe Mixon ($6,100), Christian Kirk ($5,900), Evan Engram ($4,700), Tyler Boyd ($4,100), and Tanner Hudson ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Jones ($3,700) and Jaguars Defense ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: D’Ernest Johnson ($4,200)
Must-Own: Trevor Lawrence ($6,800)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tee Higgins ($6,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), Trevor Lawrence ($6,800), Calvin Ridley ($6,600), Joe Mixon ($6,100), Christian Kirk ($5,900), Jake Browning ($5,000), Evan Engram ($4,700), Bengals Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jaguars Defense ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Boyd ($4,100)
Must-Own: Travis Etienne, Jr. ($7,100)