Four games have already been played this week, and that could have led to a lower set of options. The good news is that no team is on a bye, so we have a dozen games still ahead of us — with ten on the main slate.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($6,600), Drake London ($5,000), Taysom Hill ($5,000), Tyler Allgeier ($4,600), Kyle Pitts ($4,00)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8,400), Bijan Robinson ($6,500), Derek Carr ($5,800), Desmond Ridder ($4,800), Saints Defense ($3,600), Jonnu Smith ($3,400), Juwan Johnson, and Falcons Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: A.T. Perry ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Drake London ($5,000) and Saints Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8,400), Chris Olave ($6,600), Bijan Robinson ($6,500), Derek Carr ($5,800), Taysom Hill ($5,000), Desmond Ridder ($4,800), Tyler Allgeier ($4,600), Falcons Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,200)
Must-Own: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300), Jake Browning ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Joe Mixon ($6,300), Jaylen Warren ($5,400), Najee Harris ($4,900), Diontae Johnson ($4,900), Kenny Pickett ($4,800), George Pickens ($4,700), Tyler Boyd ($4,600), Steelers Defense ($3,700), Bengals Defense ($3,300), and Pat Freiermuth
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Trenton Irwin ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Warren ($5,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300), Joe Mixon ($6,300), Jake Browning ($5,200), Najee Harris ($4,900), Diontae Johnson ($4,900), Kenny Pickett ($4,800), George Pickens ($4,700), Steelers Defense ($3,700), Bengals Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyler Boyd ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Trenton Irwin ($3,200)
Must-Own: None, but I do like the value with Cincinnati’s players
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($7,300), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100), Bryce Young ($4,900), and Panthers Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Will Levis ($5,300), Chuba Hubbard ($4,800), Tyjae Spears ($4,400), Miles Sanders ($4,400), and Jonathan Mingo ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Titans Defense ($3,400)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($6,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyjae Spears ($4,400), Titans Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Adam Thielen ($7,300), Derrick Henry ($6,400), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100), Will Levis ($5,300), Bryce Young ($4,900), Chuba Hubbard ($4,800), Panthers Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Miles Sanders ($4,400)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Godwin ($6,300), Colts Defense ($3,400), and Bucaneers Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,400), Jonathan Taylor ($6,900), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,800), Baker Mayfield ($5,500), Alec Pierce ($3,200), and Trey Palmer ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($6,100) and Gardner Minshew II ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: Cade Otton ($3,200)
Must-Own: Josh Downs ($4,800)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Michael Pittman, Jr. ($6,800) and Colts Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,400), Jonathan Taylor ($6,900), Chris Godwin ($6,300), Rachaad White ($6,100), Baker Mayfield ($5,500), Gardner Minshew II ($5,100), Josh Downs ($4,800),
Underpriced for Expectation: Buccaneers Defense ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Cade Otton ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
New England Patriots at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($7,300), Tommy DeVito ($5,200), Mac Jones ($5,100), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,800), Demario Douglas ($4,400), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,800), Giants Defense ($3,500), Hunter Henry ($3,400), and Jalin Hyatt ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patriots Defense ($3,200)
Lottery Ticket: Juju Smith-Schuster ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($7,300), Mac Jones ($5,100), and Tommy DeVito ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Ezekiel Elliott ($5,000), Demario Douglas ($4,400), Giants Defense ($3,500), and Patriots Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,800), Hunter Henry ($3,400)
Lottery Ticket: Bailey Zappe ($4,400)
Must-Own: Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,800)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100), Devin Singletary ($6,000), Dameon Pierce ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: C.J. Stroud ($7,700), Tank Dell ($6,900), Trevor Lawrence ($6,400), Nico Collins ($6,400), Calvin Ridley ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($5,700), Dalton Schultz ($5,400), Robert Woods ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Evan Engram ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Zay Jones ($3,900)
Must-Own: None, but this should be one of the more reliable games for offense
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne, Jr. ($7,100), Tank Dell ($6,900), Trevor Lawrence ($6,400), Nico Collins ($6,400), Devin Singletary ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($5,700), Dalton Schultz ($5,400), Tank Bigsby ($4,200), Jaguars Defense ($3,000), Texans Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($6,000) and Evan Engram ($4,200)
Lottery Ticket: Robert Woods ($4,000)
Must-Own: None, but Lawrence will be the quarterback in at least one of my lineups
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amari Cooper ($5,900), Dorian Thompson-Robsinson ($4,900), Jerry Jeudy ($4,900), and David Njoku ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Javante Williams ($5,700), Jerome Ford ($5,600), Russell Wilson ($5,400), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Kareem Hunt ($4,900), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,800), Samaje Perine ($4,700), and Browns Defense ($3,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Broncos Defense ($3,200)
Lottery Ticket: None, but every running back in this game feels like a viable “lottery ticket” option
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Javonte Williams ($5,700) and Browns Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amari Cooper ($5,900), Jerome Ford ($5,600), Russell Wilson ($5,400), Jerry Jeudy ($4,900), Kareem Hunt ($4,800), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,800), Broncos Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Samaje Perine ($4,600)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($7,600) and Matthew Stafford ($6,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($8,000), Kyler Murray ($6,900), James Conner ($5,900), Rondale Moore ($3,600), Tyler Higbee ($3,500), Cardinals Defense ($3,000), and Rams Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Marquise Brown ($5,200) if healthy and/or Trey McBride ($4,700) is Brown is out
Lottery Ticket: Greg Dortch ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($7,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($8,000), Kyler Murray ($6,900), Matthew Stafford ($6,300), James Conner ($5,900), Darrell Henderson ($5,200), Marquise Brown ($5,200), Tutu Atwell ($4,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Trey McBride ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Rondal Moore ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($7,800), Isiah Pacheco ($6,200), and Jakobi Meyers ($5,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($8,200), Josh Jacobs ($6,700), Rashee Rice ($5,500), Aidan O’Connell ($5,000), Kadarius Toney ($3,200), Chiefs Defense ($3,100), and Justin Watson ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,200)
Lottery Ticket: Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,000)
Must-Own: Travis Kelce ($8,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rashee Rice ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($8,200), Davante Adams ($7,800), Josh Jacobs ($6,700), Isiah Pacheco ($6,200), Jakobi Meyers ($5,800), Aiden O’Connell ($5,000), Raiders Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3,100)
Lottery Ticket: Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,000)
Must-Own: Travis Kelce ($8,200)
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DeVonta Smith ($7,100) and James Cook ($6,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($9,000), Jalen Hurts ($8,300), Josh Allen ($8,100), D’Andre Swift ($6,800), Gabe Davis ($5,300), Dalton Kincaid ($5,300), and Khalil Shakir ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Eagles Defense ($2,900)
Lottery Ticket: Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,500)
Must-Own: Stefon Diggs ($8,800)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: A.J. Brown ($9,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($8,300), Josh Allen ($8,100), DeVonta Smith ($7,100), D’Andre Swift ($6,800), James Cook ($6,200), Dalton Kincaid ($5,300), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,900), Eagles Defense ($2,900), Bills Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gabe Davis ($5,300)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3,600)
Must-Own: Stefon Diggs ($8,800)
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Gus Edwards ($6,200), Ravens Defense ($3,100), and Chargers Defense ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($8,800), Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Justin Herbert ($7,300), Keaton Mitchell ($4,900), Quentin Johnston ($4,000), Odell Beckahm Jr. ($3,800), Gerald Everett ($3,500), Rashod Bateman ($3,200), and Donald Parham Jr. ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jalen Guyton ($3,300) and Isaiah Likely ($3,300)
Must-Own: Austin Ekeler ($8,100)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ravens Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,100), Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Justin Herbert ($7,300), Gus Edwards ($6,200), Zay Flowers ($5,600), Keaton Mitchell ($4,900), Joshua Kelley ($4,500), Gerald Everett ($3,500), Chargers Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Isaiah Likely ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($3,800)
Must-Own: Keenan Allen ($8,800)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Jefferson ($8,500) health concern, Alexander Mattison ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7,000), Joshua Dobbs ($5,900), T.J. Hockenson ($5,900), Jordan Addison ($5,700), Khalil Herbert ($5,100), Ty Chandler ($5,000), Roschon Johnson ($4,700), K.J. Osborn ($4,200), Cole Kmet ($4,200), Vikings Defense ($3,400), and Bears Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: D.J. Moore ($6,200)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joshua Dobbs ($5,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8,500) if he plays, Justin Fields ($7,000), T.J. Hockenson ($5,900), Jordan Addison ($5,700), Alexander Mattison ($5,500), D’Ontra Foreman ($5,300), Khalil Herbert ($5,100), Cole Kmet ($4,200), Vikings Defense ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bears Defense ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Darnell Mooney ($3,400)
Must-Own: D.J. Moore ($6,200)