We still have some teams on byes, but the slate is slightly larger than last week’s with the absence of an early-morning International game. There are also some big-name players set to return from injuries, so we have plenty of options to consider in Week 11.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amari Cooper ($6,200), Kenny Pickett ($4,800), Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,500), and David Njoku ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jerome Ford ($5,200), Jaylen Warren ($5,100), Najee Harris ($5,100), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Kareem Hunt ($4,900), George Pickens ($4,900), Browns Defense ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Browns Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amari Cooper ($6,200), Jerome Ford ($5,200), Jaylen Warren ($5,100), Najee Harris ($5,100), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Kareem Hunt ($4,900), Kenny Pickett ($4,800), Steelers Defense ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: George Pickens ($4,900), David Njoku ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,500)
Must-Own: None
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Sam LaPorta ($5,800), D’Onta Foreman ($5,600) injury concern, and Lions Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000), Justin Fields ($6,900), Jared Goff ($6,600), David Montgomery ($6,500), Cole Kmet ($4,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jameson Williams ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Herbert ($4,700)
Must-Own: D.J. Moore ($5,600)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D’Onta Foreman ($5,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000), Jared Goff ($6,600), David Montgomery ($6,500), Sam LaPorta ($5,800), D.J. Moore ($5,600), Craig Reynolds ($4,600),
Underpriced for Expectation: Justin Fields ($6,900), Cole Kmet ($4,100)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,300)
Must-Own: None, but Fields is on my short list of quarterbacks
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Keenan Allen ($9,000) injury concern, A.J. Dillon ($4,600), and Chargers Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,600), Justin Herbert ($7,600), Jordan Love ($5,600), Romeo Doubs ($5,200), Quentin Johnston ($4,200), Jayden Reed ($4,000), Luke Musgrave ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6,200) and Donald Parham Jr. ($3,100)
Lottery Ticket: Christian Watson ($4,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Aaron Jones ($6,200), Romeo Doubs ($5,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($9,000), Austin Ekeler ($8,600), Justin Herbert ($7,600), Jordan Love ($5,600), AJ Dillon ($4,600), Joshua Kelley ($4,600), Christian Watson ($4,600), Quinten Johnston ($4,200), Chargers ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jalen Guyton ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Packers Defense ($2,300)
Must-Own: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: De’Von Achane ($6,600) injury concern and Jakobi Meyers ($6,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($7,900), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), Raheem Mostert ($6,900), Josh Jacobs ($6,800), Aidan O’Connell ($4,900), Dolphins Defense ($3,200),
Underpriced for Expectation: Michael Mayer ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Cedrick Wilson ($3,000)
Must-Own: Tyreek Hill ($9,300)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jakobi Meyers ($6,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Tyreek Hill ($9,300), Davante Adams ($7,900), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700), Raheem Mostert ($6,900), Josh Jacobs ($6,800), Aiden O’Connell ($4,900), Dolphins Defense ($3,200), Raiders Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Waddle ($7,600)
Lottery Ticket: Hunter Renfrow ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Terry McLaurin ($5,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($7,100), Sam Howell ($6,300), Jahan Dotson ($5,100), Tommy DeVito ($5,000), Logan Thomas ($3,700), Curtis Samuel ($3,600), Commanders Defense ($3,600), Daniel Bellinger ($3,000), and Giants Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Sam Howell ($6,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($7,100), Terry McLaurin ($5,800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800), Jahan Dotson ($5,100), Tommy DeVito ($5,000), Commanders Defense ($3,600), and Giants Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Logan Thomas ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: Curtis Samuel ($3,600)
Must-Own: None, but Barkley is close
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($7,500), Bryce Young ($5,100), Chuba Hubbard ($4,900), Miles Sanders ($4,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($9,200), Dak Prescott ($7,300), Tony Pollard ($6,600), Brandin Cooks ($4,700), Jake Ferguson ($4,600), Cowboys Defense ($4,100), Michael Gallup ($3,800), Jonathan Mingo ($3,400), D.J. Chark Jr. ($3,300), and Tommy Tremble ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($7,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($9,200), Adam Thielen ($7,500), Tony Pollard ($6,600), Bryce Young ($5,100), Chuba Hubbard ($4,900), Brandin Cooks ($4,700), Jake Ferguson ($4,600), Cowboys Defense ($4,100), Michael Gallup ($3,800), D.J. Chark Jr. ($3,300), and Tommy Tremble ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Miles Sanders ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaguars Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200), Derrick Henry ($6,300), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100), Trevor Lawrence ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($6,000), Tyjae Spears ($4,600), Evan Engram ($4,300), Chig Okonkwo ($3,200), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,100), and Titans Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($5,200) and Kyle Philips ($3,000)
Lottery Ticket: Calvin Ridley ($5,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaguars Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100), Trevor Lawrence ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($6,000), Calvin Ridley ($5,400), Tyjae Spears ($4,600), Evan Engram ($4,300), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,100), and Titans Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Will Levis ($5,200)
Lottery Ticket: Chig Okonkwo ($3,200)
Must-Own: Derrick Henry ($6,300)
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7,000), Nico Collins ($6,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kyler Murray ($6,100), Tank Dell ($5,900), James Conner ($5,700), Devin Singletary ($5,300), Marquise Brown ($5,300), Dalton Schultz ($5,000), Noah Brown ($4,800), Trey McBride ($4,400), Michael Wilson ($3,400), Texans Defense ($3,000), and Cardinals Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($7,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($6,700), Kyler Murray ($6,100), Tank Dell ($5,900), James Conner ($5,700), Devin Singletary ($5,300), Malcolm Brown ($5,300), Dalton Schultz ($5,000), Noah Brown ($4,800), Texans Defense ($3,000), and Cardinals Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Trey McBride ($4,400)
Lottery Ticket: Rondale Moore ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), Chris Godwin ($6,600), George Kittle ($6,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,300), Mike Evans ($7,400), Deebo Samuel ($6,300), Rachaad White ($6,000), Brock Purdy ($5,800), Baker Mayfield ($5,300), 49ers Defense ($3,900), and Cade Otton ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Trey Palmer ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rachaad White ($6,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,300), Mike Evans ($7,400), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), George Kittle ($6,400), Deebo Samuel ($6,300), Baker Mayfield ($5,300), 49ers Defense ($3,900), Cade Otton ($3,400), Buccaneers Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chris Godwin ($6,600) and Brock Purdy ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Jauan Jennings ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Stefon Diggs ($9,100), Garrett Wilson ($6,400), James Cook ($6,100), Gabe Davis ($5,500), and Zach Wilson ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($8,200), Breece Hall ($6,400), Latavius Murray ($4,800), Bills Defense ($4,000), Allen Lazard ($3,500), Khalil Shakir ($3,200), Tyler Conklin ($2,900), and Jets Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Dalvin Cook ($4,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Stefon Diggs ($9,200) and Josh Allen ($8,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Breece Hall ($6,400), Garrett Wilson ($6,400), James Cook ($6,100), Gabe Davis ($5,500), Latavius Murray ($4,800), Zach Wilson ($4,800), Bills Defense ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($4.900)
Lottery Ticket: Jets Defense ($2,600)
Must-Own: None
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($6,900) unless Tyler Lockett is out, Matthew Stafford ($6,400), and Geno Smith ($5,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($8,100), Puka Nacua ($7,100), Kenneth Walker III ($6,700), Tyler Locket ($6,500) depending on his health, Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,000), Tutu Atwell ($3,900), Seawhawks Defense ($3,100), and Rams Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Tyler Higbee ($3,300)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Puka Nacua ($7,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Cooper Kupp ($8,100), DK Metcalf ($6,900), Kenneth Walker III ($6,700), Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Geno Smith ($5,900), Darrell Henderson ($5,000), Seahawks Defense ($3,100), Rams Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($6,400) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Tutu Atwell ($3,900)
Must-Own: None
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Jefferson ($8,600), Joshua Dobbs ($5,900), Samaje Perine ($4,500), and Vikings Defense ($3,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Javonte Williams ($5,600), Jordan Addison ($5,600), Alexander Mattison ($5,400) depending on his health, T.J. Hockenson ($5,100), Jerry Jeudy ($5,000), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,700), K.J. Osborne ($4,200), and Adam Trautman ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Ty Chandler ($5,300) only if Alexander Mattison is ruled out, otherwise he becomes “Fair Value” and Courtland Sutton ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: Broncos Defense ($3,000)
Must-Own: Russell Wilson ($5,200)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joshua Dobbs ($5,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Javonte Williams ($5,600), Jordan Addison ($5,600), Ty Chandler ($5,300), Courtland Sutton ($5,100), Jerry Jeudy ($5,000), Vikings Defense ($3,300), Broncos Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Russell Wilson ($5,200) and T.J. Hockenson ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,700)
Must-Own: Justin Jefferson ($8,600) if he plays
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DeVonta Smith ($6,800), Isiah Pacheco ($6,300), and Eagles Defense ($2,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,500), Jalen Hurts ($7,800), D’Andre Swift ($6,500), Rashee Rice ($4,800), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,500), MeCole Hardman ($3,200), and Chiefs Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patrick Mahomes ($7,500)
Lottery Ticket: Justin Watson ($3,000)
Must-Own: Travis Kelce ($7,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Isiah Pacheco ($6,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($8,500), Travis Kelce ($7,400), DeVonta Smith ($6,800), D’Andre Swift ($6,500), Rashee Rice ($4,800), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,500), Eagles Defense ($2,800), Chiefs Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patrick Mahomes ($7,500)
Lottery Ticket: Jerick McKinnon ($4,600)
Must-Own: Jalen Hurts ($7,800)