Once again, we have a lighter slate of games but plenty of value. This has been a nice recurring theme where entire games — as units — are either too expensive or too affordable and need to be considered when building lineups.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 10 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: None
Fair Value for Expectations: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600), C.J. Stroud ($6,900), Joe Burrow ($6,800), Dalton Schultz ($4,900), Tyler Boyd ($4,600), Irv Smith Jr. ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Joe Mixon ($6,200), Tank Dell ($5,500), and Noah Brown ($3,700)
Lottery Ticket: Devin Singletary ($4,700) and Trenton Irwin ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600) if healthy
Fair Value for Expectations: C.J. Stroud ($6,900), Joe Burrow ($6,800), Joe Mixon ($6,200), Tank Dell ($5,500), Dalton Schultz ($4,900), Bengals Defense ($2,800), Texans Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Devin Singletary ($4,700), Tyler Boyd ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Trenton Irwin ($3,000)
Must-Own: None, but Tyler Boyd probably slides into this category if Ja’Marr Chase is out
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Jefferson ($8,900) is active, Jordan Addison ($5,900) primarily if Jefferson is active otherwise he is closer to “Fair Value”, and K.J. OSborn ($4,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8,300), Chris Olave ($6,400), Derek Carr ($5,800), Joshua Dobbs ($5,500), Alexander Mattison ($5,500), Taysom Hill ($5,100), T.J. Hockenson ($5,000), Michael Thomas ($4,500), Rashid Shaheed ($4,300), and Saints Defense ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Juwan Johnson ($3,100)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Jefferson ($8,900) if healthy, Joshua Dobbs ($5,500), and Vikings Defense ($3,200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alvin Kamara ($8,300), Chris Olave ($6,400), Jordan Addison ($5,900), Derek Carr ($5,800), Taysom Hill ($5,100), T.J. Hockenson ($5,000), Michael Thomas ($4,500), K. J. Osborn ($4,200), Saints Defense ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Rashid Shaheed ($4,300)
Lottery Ticket: Jamaal Williams ($4,300)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Warren ($5,000), A.J. Dillon ($4,600), Steelers Defense ($3,800), and Packers Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Love ($5,600), Romeo Doubs ($5,300), George Pickens ($5,100), Najee Harris ($4,900), Jayden Reed ($3,800), and Luke Musgrave ($3,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Diontae Johnson ($5,400)
Lottery Ticket: Christian Watson ($4,900)
Must-Own: Aaron Jones ($6,500)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Steelers Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jordan Love ($5,600), Diontae Johnson ($5,400), Romeo Doubs ($5,300), George Pickens ($5,100), Jaylen Warren ($5,000), Kenny Pickett ($4,900), Najee Harris ($4,900), A.J. Dillon ($4,600), Luke Musgrave ($3,700), Packers Defense ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Christian Watson ($4,900)
Lottery Ticket: Jayden Reed ($3,800)
Must-Own: Aaron Jones ($6,500)
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($7,200), Chris Godwin ($6,700), and Buccaneers Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derrick Henry ($7,400), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000), Rachaad White ($5,800), Will Levis ($5,300), Baker Mayfield ($5,100), Tyjae Spears ($4,500), Cade Otton ($3,400), and Titans Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Derrick Henry ($7,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7,200), Chris Godwin ($6,700), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000), Rachaad White ($5,800), Will Levis ($5,300), Chase Edmonds ($4,300), Buccaneers Defense ($3,500), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,400), Titans Defense ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Baker Mayfield ($5,100)
Lottery Ticket: Cade Otton ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100) and George Kittle ($6,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,200), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,100), Deebo Samuel ($6,200), Trevor Lawrence ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($6,000), Calvin Ridley ($5,600), Evan Engram ($4,500), 49ers Defense ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brock Purdy ($5,700)
Lottery Ticket: Jamaal Agnew ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne, Jr. ($7,100) and Brandon Aiyuk ($7,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,200), Deebo Samuel ($6,200), George Kittle ($6,100), Trevor Lawrence ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($6,000), Brock Purdy ($5,700), Evan Engram ($4,500), Tank Bigsby ($4,200), 49ers Defense ($3,600), Jaguars Defense ($2,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Calvin Ridley ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jauan Jennings ($3,900)
Must-Own: None, but McCaffrey needs to be considered if salary allows
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mark Andrews ($6,900), Gus Edwards ($6,100), and Ravens Defense ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8,000), Amari Cooper ($6,300), Zay Flowers ($5,700), Deshaun Watson ($5,400), Jerome Ford ($5,300), Kareem Hunt ($5,100), David Njoku ($4,000), Odell Beckham Jr. ($3,800), and Browns Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Elijah Moore ($3,600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mark Andrews ($6,900), Ravens Defense ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8,000), Amari Cooper ($6,300), Gus Edwards ($6,100), Deshaun Watson ($5,400), Jerome Ford ($5,300), Kareem Hunt ($5,100), Justice Hill ($4,500), Browns Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($5,700), David Njoku ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Odell Beckham, Jr. ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kyle Pitts ($4,100), and Falcons Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: James Conner ($5,900) if active, Drake London ($5,500), Marquise Brown ($5,200), Taylor Heinicke ($5,100), Tyler Allgeier ($4,700), Jonnu Smith ($3,600), Michael Wilson ($3,500) if active, Trey McBride ($3,500), KhaDarel Hodge ($3,400), Van Jefferson ($3,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Kyler Murray ($5,900)
Must-Own: Bijan Robinson ($6,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Drake London ($5,500) and Falcons Defense ($3,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Bijan Robinson ($6,000), James Conner ($5,900) if he plays, Malcolm Brown ($5,200), Taylor Heinicke ($5,100), Tyler Allgeier ($4,700), Kyle Pitts ($4,100), Cardinals Defense ($2,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Trey McBride ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Van Jefferson ($3,300)
Must-Own: Kyler Murray ($5,900)
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Keenan Allen ($8,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000), and David Montgomery ($6,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,400), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300), Justin Herbert ($7,700), Jared Goff ($6,400), Sam LaPorta ($5,700), Quentin Johnston ($4,100), Gerald Everett ($3,900), Josh Reynolds ($3,800), Jameson Williams ($3,400), Donald Parham Jr. ($3,200), and Chargers Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Jalen Guyton ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000), Lions Defense ($3,100), and Chargers Defense ($2,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Keenan Allen ($8,800), Austin Ekeler ($8,400), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300), Justin Herbert ($7,700), David Montgomery ($6,900), Jared Goff ($6,400), Sam LaPorta ($5,700), Quentin Johnson ($4,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Craig Reynolds ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: None
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($8,500), Saquon Barkley ($7,700), Dak Prescott ($6,700), Jake Ferguson ($4,600), Rico Dowdle ($4,300), Brandin Cooks ($4,200), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700), Michael Gallup ($3,500), and Jalen Tolbert
Underpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($7,300)
Lottery Ticket: Tommy DeVito ($4,700)
Must-Own: Cowboys Defense ($4,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Dak Prescott ($6,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($8,500), Saquon Barkley ($7,700), Tony Pollard ($7,300), Tommy DeVito ($4,700), Cowboys Defense ($4,400), Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700), Michael Gallup ($3,500), Giants Defense ($2,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jake Ferguson ($4,600)
Lottery Ticket: Rico Dowdle ($4,300)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Seahawks Defense ($4,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kenneth Walker III ($6,800), DK Metcalf ($6,800), Tyler Lockett ($6,100), Sam Howell ($5,900), Geno Smith ($5,800), Terry McLaurin ($5,800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,400), Jahan Dotson ($5,000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100), Curtis Samuel ($3,900), Logan Thomas ($3,800), and Commanders Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($6,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Kenneth Walker III ($6,800), Tyler Lockett ($6,100), Sam Howell ($5,900), Geno Smith ($5,800), Terry McLaurin ($5,800), Jahan Dotson ($5,000), Antonio Gibson ($4,600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100), Seahawks Defense ($4,100), Logan Thomas ($3,800), Commanders Defense ($2,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson, Jr. ($5,400),
Lottery Ticket: Jamison Crowder ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($8,000), Aidan O’Connell ($5,100), Zach Wilson ($5,100),
Fair Value for Expectations: Garrett Wilson ($6,600), Jakobi Meyers ($6,100), Allen Lazard ($3,700), Tyler Conklin ($3,200), Raiders Defense ($3,200), and Jets Defense ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Breece Hall ($6,900)
Lottery Ticket: Michael Mayer ($2,700)
Must-Own: Josh Jacobs ($7,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($8,000), Josh Jacobs ($7,000), Jakobi Meyers ($6,100), Aidan O’Connell ($5,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Garrett Wilson ($6,600), Zach Wilson ($5,000), Dalvin Cook ($4,500), Randall Cobb ($3,200), Raiders Defense ($3,200),
Underpriced for Expectation: Tyler Conklin ($3,200) and Jets Defense ($3,100)
Lottery Ticket: Allen Lazard ($3,700)
Must-Own: Breece Hall ($6,900)
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($6,300) and Bills Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($9,200), Josh Allen ($8,500), Gabe Davis ($5,700), Javonte Williams ($5,400), Courtland Sutton ($5,300), Jerry Jeudy ($5,200), Dalton Kincaid ($4,800), Jaleel McLuaghlin ($4,700), and Khalil Shakir ($3,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Russell Wilson ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,300)
Must-Own: None, but in the Primetime, Classic slate, either Josh Allen or Russell Wilson will be my quarterback in 100% of my lineups
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Cook ($6,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($9,200), Josh Allen ($8,500), Gabe Davis ($5,700), Russell Wilson ($5,600), Javonte Williams ($5,400), Jerry Jeudy ($5,200), Dalton Kincaid ($4,800), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,700), Latavius Murray ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Courtland Sutton ($5,300)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3,500)
Must-Own: None