Over the past few weeks, we have had some early Sunday games that lowered the number of matchups for a given slate. This week, we have the most teams on bye weeks, to date, which results in a naturally smaller schedule. This doesn’t change much for us, but it does mean that the overall popularity of some players will be artificially higher than in the past.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 9 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The injuries and general personnel questions about these teams may cloud matters, but this game should be ripe for plenty of scoring. The NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons have the 6th highest scoring offense in the league and the 29th ranked scoring defense in the league. The Los Angeles Chargers have the 11th highest scoring offense and the 31st ranked scoring defense. Simply put, when these teams touch the field, points are being scored. Be sure to pay close attention to injury news as both teams are key players that may or may not be in the lineup, but other than that, fire away.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, Gerald Everett, Marcus Mariota, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Justin Herbert
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I continue to write the same thing about the Atlanta Falcons. That is, despite how much I bought into them before this year, there will still be moments where I exercise some caution. In reality, the matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is quite good for Atlanta’s offense — the Chargers are allowing the second-most points-per-game in the league — but the underlying yardage total for the Falcons gives me some pause. They rank just 25th in yards-per-game. The bigger deal is the Chargers’ offense against the Falcons’ defense. Atlanta is a sieve defensively, and Los Angeles has had two weeks to rebound from a bad loss to the Seahawks. I would expect a solid outing from the Chargers’ offense, even if some of the key playmakers will miss the game.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler — if healthy — Sony Michel, whichever Chargers wide receiver is active, Gerald Everett, Marcus Mariota, Travis Allgeier, and Drake London
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The once vaunted Chicago Bears Defense has been mediocre at best this season, and has now traded away arguably their two best players. The combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has overwhelmed pretty much every team they have faced this year, and there is really no reason to think that is going to change this week. The Bears offense was the laughing stock of the league for a while, but they have quietly put together three solid efforts in a row in which they have been averaging 383 yards of offense per game including 240 yards on the ground. The Dolphins defense has had major struggles this season, and while they did add Bradley Chubb, it is unlikely he completely fixes this defense in one game. I don’t ever recommend too strong of a commitment to the Bears offense, but the game script may force some value to be had.
Targets: Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Darnell Mooney
Fades: Dolphins Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Two of the most active — arguably the two most active — teams at the Trade Deadline meet on Sunday in a non-conference showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears. The immediate reaction is based on said trades, where the players are actually less of the story as the main narrative should be at the forefront. Essentially, Miami made moves to win now while the Bears made moves to continue their rebuild. That makes sense in the big picture, but won’t it produce a more aggressive effort from the Dolphins and possibly a more complacent one from Chicago? The same playmakers as always are worth a look from Miami, but we do have to consider what wide receiver Chase Claypool brings to the Bears. I’d consider him with quarterback Justin Fields, but I also like the idea of using Darnell Mooney in a lineup now that someone else can take away the attention.
Targets: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I know it was only one game, but the Cincinnati Bengals offense looked completely lost without Ja’Marr Chase on the field. The run game has been non-existent all season long, and with the offensive line struggling again, Joe Burrow never stood a chance last week. Last week wasn’t a bright spot for the Panthers defense either, but they have been far better than their numbers may suggest given the struggles of the Panthers offense this year. The Panthers may have produced one of the highest scoring games of the year last week, but nothing about their team, or this matchup, suggests that we should expect a repeat performance this week. I will be heavily limiting my exposure to this game.
Targets: D’Onta Foreman, D.J. Moore, Panthers Defense, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and Bengals Defense
Fades: P.J. Walker and Joe Burrow
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: P.J. Walker does it again! I only half-joke when I write about my love for the Carolina Panthers’ quarterback, but the reality is that he delivered arguably the highlight-reel play of the season with his long touchdown pass near the end of regulation in last week’s loss in Atlanta. Now, he has expectations attached to him, and I’m not sure he can meet them against the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense. Three-of-the-last-four opponents have thrown for fewer than 175 yards against Cincinnati. There’s some value with the Panthers’ offense, but not as much as there has been in the past. I also have continued to write about Carolina’s defense, but it simply isn’t stopping opponents regularly enough for me to be concerned with using players from Cincinnati.
Targets: D’Onta Foreman, D.J. Moore, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Things could not look much worse for the Green Bay Packers as they sit at 3-5 and are coming off four consecutive losses. Luckily for them, there is seemingly no better cure for poor play than a matchup against the Detroit Lions. The Lions defense ranks 32nd in the league in yards, 32nd in the league in scoring, 32nd in net yards allowed per pass attempt, and 28th in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Packers showed last week when they trust their run game, the offense can sustain drives, and while that wasn’t enough to overcome the Bills, it should be more than enough to overcome this Lions defense that has allowed 24 or more points in every game this season. The Lions offense may or may not put up a fight as they either show up ready for a back-and-forth shootout, or they show up ready to score zero points. Either way, with T.J. Hockenson no longer in the picture, there is an even narrower pool of talent for the offense to lean on, so there should be value no matter how they perform overall.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, A.J. Dillon, Romeo Doubs, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing the same thing about the Green Bay Packers — not even week-to-week, but article-to-article — and it remains clear that the window for this season is shutting quickly. Most importantly, the Packers have the best opportunity they have had all season to make some noise on offense against the league’s worst defense. Green Bay will score, but it feels imperative that it keeps scoring and sends a message while finding a gameplan that works. I’m not so sure it happens, but the upside is there for a truly explosive outing. The Detroit Lions’ offense can no longer be asked to do what it had at the start of the season, but a few big names can still deliver. The trade of tight end T.J. Hockenson will also help funnel some targets back toward wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and running back D’Andre Swift.
Targets: Everyone from Green Bay, D’Andre Swift, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: By now, we are deep enough into the season to have a very good sense of the true identity of teams for the most part. These are two teams that are loaded with question marks, but even amongst all the uncertainty, we know these teams well enough to know that explosive offense simply is not who these teams are. Both teams have some talent on offense, but it is limited to a few players, and the upside of those players is limited due to the overall limitations of their offenses. You can count on volume for some players in this game, but don’t expect any game-breaking fantasy performances.
Targets: Deon Jackson, Michael Pittman Jr., Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jakobi Meyers
Fades: Mac Jones
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New England Patriots keep teasing the league with better play that makes everyone think they have returned to prominence only to put forth a disappointing outing. Overall, New England is probably right where it should be, as it holds a 4-4 record with one game remaining before its bye week. The assumption by most is that the Patriots’ defense — which thrives in takeaways via the second-most in the league — will feast on rookie quarterback Sam Ehlinger of the Indianapolis Colts, but Ehlinger didn’t throw an interception in his first career start last week. Overall, it seems like the ceiling is lowered everywhere except for the running backs we would see on a regular basis between these two teams — New England’s Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson and, in place of Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor, Deon Jackson
Targets: Damien Harris — if healthy — Rhamondre Stevenson, Deon Jackson, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As we feared, life without Breece Hall was an immediate struggle for Zach Wilson and the Jets. James Robinson should get more and more acclimated to the offense, and help a bit, but this offense is clearly not ready to handle the pressure that comes with being a winning football team. Life is only going to get tougher this week against a Bills team that boasts the league’s best scoring defense. The Bills ability to pressure the quarterback without blitzing is likely to cause a lot of problems for Wilson on what is looking likely to turn into a very long day for the Jets
Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Bills Defense, Michael Carter, and Garrett Wilson
Fades: Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week, many people argued that the New York Jets were facing their biggest and most important test of the year. Maybe. But this week is now bigger and more important. New York was shut down by New England because of horrible turnovers from quarterback Zach Wilson, but how he and his offense responds to said outing is the key. The Buffalo Bills are outstanding on both sides of the ball, and all expectations — for DFS and general on-field play — stem from how the Jets rebound after their disheartening loss.
Targets: Josh Allen, Nyheim Hines, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Zach Wilson, and Michael Carter
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Garrett Wilson — especially with Corey Davis out
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I will continue dying on the hill that the Vikings are the most overrated team in the league and them being 6-1 entering this game is not an accurate representation of them as a team. With that said, the Washington Commanders are coming off back-to-back borderline miraculous victories playing with their backup quarterback, and I simply can’t expect a third one in a row. Washington is clearly a more competitive team with Taylor Heinicke under center, but this is a team that is largely underwhelming on offense, and the definition of average on defense. Minnesota’s stats show much of the same, but they have shown their top-end talent, and their ability to properly manage games, can win out against lesser opponents. Expect more of the same from this matchup as what we have seen from Minnesota thus far.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Taylor Heinicke
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious main storyline for Sunday’s game between the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders is the return of Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins to Washington. Sunday will mark the first time that he has played in Washington as a visitor, but I’m not so sure it matters. Cousins generally puts up his numbers that, as we always write, average out to be above-average in the end. What does matter is that Washington appears to be a different team with quarterback Taylor Heinicke at the helm. That is clearly subjective, but the Commanders are now 4-4 and have some momentum. There’s a chance that at least one player from Washington makes an impact on Sunday for a fantasy lineup.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, T.J. Hockenson, Brian Robinson, Jr., and Terry McLaurin
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are many storylines in sports that fans choose to latch on to, and one that we always love to follow is betting on an offense that is coming off a shutout. The Raiders have largely been a disappointment this season, but their offense has far too much talent at multiple positions to look as poor as they did last week. The Jaguars defense is no joke, but they have allowed over 20 points in four of their last five games, and with the Raiders coming off an impossibly bad game, I will happily bet on a rebound performance. I have supported the Jaguars offense all season, and while the overall results haven’t been elite, the matchup and the game flow could work heavily in their favor this week. Add to that their limited player pool who demand high-volume and there could be value to be had there.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram
Fades: Jaguars Defense
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m usually not one to make bold proclamations, but there will be plenty of points in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars. Why? Because history tells us that at least one team should bring its offense to the game. The Raiders were just shut out, and I always point to the trend that leads to an average of approximately 19 points-per-game in the follow-up matchup. Not only does Las Vegas get a boost from the trend, but the Raiders were already one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. Jacksonville has been a mess — as has been the case for years — but the offense ranks ninth-best in yards-per-game. I’m definitely looking to this matchup for help with my DFS lineups.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Travis Etiienne, Jr., Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Jr., Josh Jacobs, and Darren Walker — if healthy
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite generally thinking I am a bigger believer in the Seahawks than most, I do not see them winning this game. Maybe I am being unfair to them given how impressive they have been overall, but there is too much talent in the NFC West for them to run away with the division as the team who came into the year with the lowest expectations of the bunch. The return of DeAndre Hopkins has proven to be invaluable for Kyler Murray and this Cardinals offense, and I fully expect Murray to continue leaning heavily on his star receiver. With both defenses in this game being vulnerable, this game could provide some decent fantasy outputs.
Targets: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kyler Murray, Eno Benjamin — if James Conner remains inactive — and Zach Ertz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Perhaps the most important element of the game between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals is that they just played against each other a few weeks ago and the Cardinals scored a pathetic nine points. That won’t happen again. Arizona is clearly a different team with DeAndre Hopkins on the field, and he remains the focal point of the team’s offense. Seattle has performed admirably, and there is nothing that suggests it will end anytime soon.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, James Conner — if healthy — and Zach Ertz
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Not many people would’ve bet on these two teams having a combined six wins entering Week 9, but that is the world we are living in. There are also not many people that would’ve expected the Rams and the Buccaneers to have the 28th and 25th ranked scoring offenses, but that is also true. One of the most noticeable things for each team has been the struggles of their offensive lines which has led to both veteran quarterbacks taking far more hits than they would like. Both of these defenses have lots of big name talent, and if these offensive lines continue to play like they have, we may see a game where the highest scoring fantasy players are the defenses. Of course, both offenses have the talent to turn things around at any time, but with all of the other options out there, I won’t be paying a premium for the names in this game very often.
Targets: Cooper Kupp, Rams Defense, Leonard Fournette, and Chris Godwin
Fades: Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The sky is falling for both the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which means that I am immediately inclined to expect each offense to lean on its most proven weapon. That starts with both teams’ top wide receivers. The problem is that the quarterback play on each side has been suspect, and it would drag down their wide receivers’ production if the struggles continue. There is a clear path to both defenses being the answers, but I’m not looking in that direction with this matchup.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Darrel Henderson, Jr., Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson II, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Tennessee has been one of a few playoff teams from last season that has had some struggles this year, but their struggles aren’t being acknowledged much thanks to their current five game winning streak. I take that winning streak with a massive grain of salt given the competition faced in that stretch, and the fact that their offense has been extremely underwhelming. Outside of last week against Houston, Derrick Henry is having a down year by his standards, and the passing game is essentially non-existent for the Titans. Add that up and you get a team that has scored between 17 and 24 points in all but one game — in which they scored just 7 points. I commend a team that is able to win games even when they aren’t playing very well, and I always like the Titans in a big spot, but the odds are stacked against them this week. They have to face a Chiefs team that has been dominant offensively, has added a dynamic playmaker in Kadarius Toney, and is coming off of their bye week. Andy Reid and the Chiefs coming off a bye week is a nightmare situation for the opposition.
Targets: Derrick Henry, Patrick Mahomes, Juju Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, MeCole Hardman, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Malik Willis (if Ryan Tannehill is out again)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I wrote about it the last time that the Tennessee Titans were playing in Primetime, and I will repeat it here. That is, the Titans generally play some of their best football when the stakes are raised. That definitely wasn’t the case the last time we saw Tennessee on national television — they were thoroughly embarrassed by the Bills — but that only increases the likelihood of seeing a better effort in the encore. The obvious concern is that quarterback Ryan Tannehill may miss the game, and that significantly limits what we can expect from the Titans’ passing attack — which might be forced into the spotlight if the Kansas City Chiefs play their typical game on the back of their high-powered offense. Titans running back Derrick Henry will obviously see tremendous volume again and, if that works, it probably keeps the ball out of the hands of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes long enough to avoid massive DFS scores for Kansas City’s offensive players. Otherwise, it’s the usual explosion.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, Travis Kelce, Ryan Tannehill — if he plays — Malik Willis — if Tannehill is out — and Robert Woods
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After some massive early season struggles, I find myself wondering what to think of the Saints defense. Are they one of the worst defenses in the league as they showed throughout the start of the year, or has their talent finally settled the group in, and they are set to go on a great stretch in the second half of the season? I am inclined to think this group continues to get better, but playing against Lamar Jackson, no matter who he has left on his offense, is different from playing against any other quarterback in the league. As I have done all season, I will continue betting on Jackson to almost single handedly put his team in position to win games even with an offense that is completely depleted of his top play makers. Jackson is going to have to be good as the Saints offense has clicked with Andy Dalton under center having scored an average of 29.6 points over their last five games with a low-mark of 24 points.
Targets: Devin Duvernay, Isaiah Likely (assuming Mark Andrews is out), Andy Dalton, and Chris Olave
Fades: Saints Defense
Must-Owns: Lamar Jackson and Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we’re writing about the Baltimore Ravens in Primetime, then we’re writing about quarterback Lamar Jackson. Period. His legs make him a ‘must-play’ in all Showdown or two-game formats for DFS. The other player on which I lean from Baltimore in a one-game setup is kicker Justin Tucker — is this the first time we’ve ever listed a kicker by name in this article? Outside of those two, it gets trickier to land on the right piece from the Ravens, especially in a matchup against the league’s tenth-best defense in yards-per-game. Baltimore’s defense has had the opposite production, where it is allowing the ninth-most yards-per-game, but the narrative about the New Orleans Saints’ offense is probably going to push people away from quarterback Andy Dalton. For that reason, I’d want to make sure I am ahead of the field with Dalton.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Tre’Quan Smith, Gus Edwards — if healthy — Devin Duvernay, Mark Andrews, and both defenses
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Justin Tucker