Injuries have certainly stepped into the spotlight in Week 8, as it feels like every game has a critical player who may miss time — or has already been ruled out. As always, that presents opportunities for other players to step in and shine, and we will make it a point to highlight them as they appear.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 8 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You have to commend the Panthers for their big victory last week in the face of all of their turmoil so far this season, but they are still a team that is generally devoid of talent and not one worth targeting heavily for DFS purposes. The lone spot of potential reliability and true upside comes with D’Onta Foreman. Foreman shined last week in the wake of the Christian McCaffrey trade, and with Chuba Hubbard ruled out, he should play a huge role in the Panthers offense this week. The Falcons are coming off their worst game of the season, but their offense still managed a 17-point outing. While their scoring output has been pretty reliable, the fantasy production simply isn’t there in this extremely heavy run offense that is spreading out carries to multiple players. Overall, this game should see a ton of run plays and not that much fantasy relevance.
Targets: D’Onta Foreman, D.J. Moore, Panthers Defense, and Tyler Allgeier
Fades: Marcus Mariota
Must-Owns: None, but Foreman is definitely close
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: My beloved P.J. Walker — it’s true, I root for him and often argue that he is more than capable of being a fill-in starting quarterback when needed — led the Carolina Panthers to a huge ‘upset’ victory last week, and he will be asked to do it again. Unfortunately for Walker, he will face an Atlanta Falcons team that had been moving up the standings before running into a brick wall last week in Cincinnati. It’s difficult to ask Walker to find another victory in consecutive weeks, but the reality is that the Panthers’ defense tends to lead the way for its victories. I won’t avoid all Falcons players — especially if I do multiple lineups — but I will proceed with caution.
Targets: D’Onta Foreman, DJ Moore, Marcus Mariota, Travis Allgeier, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For probably the first time all year, the Bears looked like they knew how to run a competent offense last week. Justin Fields was put in good positions to use his legs to make plays both as a runner and as a passer. While that was a bit of a refreshing sight to see, it is not something I am going to be expecting to continue. The only chance the Bears have in this game is if they can continue to run for over 200 yards and simply keep Dallas’ offense off the field. The Cowboys offense was fine in Dak Prescott’s return last week, but they never really needed to do a lot thanks to their defense dominating the Lions from start to finish. I think we see a fairly similar game script this week against a weaker NFC North offense where the Cowboys defense leads the way and the offense is just along for the ride.
Targets: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, and Cowboys Defense
Fades: Darnell Mooney
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Dallas Cowboys’ defense continues to impress, and it now takes on a Chicago Bears team that just popped for a season-high 33 points despite ranking fifth-worst in the league in yards-per-game. That looks like the ultimate description of regression, where I can’t justify using too many players from the Bears in a DFS lineup. Of course, the running ability of quarterback Justin Fields makes him an intriguing option, but I still worry that he will be shut down by Dallas. The Cowboys’ offense will capture everyone’s attention if running back Ezekiel Elliott can’t play, but mainly because it will give some clarity to the backfield and result in Tony Pollard getting the bulk of touches. That obviously raises his value.
Targets: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Dallas’ defense
Fades: Bears defense
Must-Owns: Tony Pollard if Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t play, even though Pollard will be ‘chalky’
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After storming out of the gates as the league’s best offense for the first month of the year, the Lions have suddenly forgotten how to play football scoring just 6 points total in their last two games. Part of the reasoning behind this downturn is the injuries they have been dealing with, and part of it is simply a natural regression after having scored an average of 35 points per game through the first four weeks. One thing that has not changed for Detroit is their defense’s inability to slow down anybody — the 24 points against last week marked a season low for them. Miami should begin to regain the early season form we saw with Tua Tagovailoa healthy and fully back in rhythm. Detroit is likely to be playing from behind in this one which could help produce some fantasy relevance even if the offense continues to struggle in real life.
Targets: Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Tyree Hill, Jaylen Waddle, D’Andre Swift, and Amon-Ra St. Brown — assuming he is healthy
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Detroit Lions have regressed hard from their peak at the top of the league’s offensive standings. We now have to question how much of a fluke that was or if their last two games were simply a function of poor matchups. This matters for Sunday, as the Miami Dolphins rank in the bottom-half for both yards and points allowed. There is a chance that Detroit’s offense finds life again. On the other side of the matchup, the Dolphins’ offense gets to take on the league’s most forgiving defense, and that is impossible to ignore. The playmakers will almost certainly be among the most popular players this weekend, so I might want to dig into the secondary targets for some exposure to Miami’s offense.
Targets: All offensive players, with an emphasis on players like Chase Edmonds and Mike Gesicki
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: D’Andre Swift
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Minnesota Vikings are 5-1. Coming off of a bye week, they seem like an easy bet this week, but I am not quite convinced. In looking closer at their stats on the year, their offense and defense both paint a pretty clear picture of being really nothing better than average. They have been blessed with a forgiving schedule to start the year, and that has helped mask the holes that they do have. The Cardinals are hardly a team without holes of their own, but having DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup made an immediate impact last week. Hopkins hauled in 10 of 14 targets for 103 yards, and with more than a full week of practice under his belt since last Thursday’s game, he should be primed to be peppered with targets once again. Both of these defenses have had some bright spots on the year, but both have also shown to be vulnerable at times — especially against the pass. The Cardinals defense ranks 25th in the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt while the Vikings rank 31st in the same metric.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Zach Ertz, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen
Fades: Dalvin Cook
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins returned to action for the Arizona Cardinals and, unsurprisingly, the team set a new season-high for points scored. It is worth noting, however, that 14 points were directly from interception returns within a matter of minutes. Overall, the Cardinals’ offense still underperformed relative to what we saw last year. On the other side of the matchup, I can’t ignore the massive salary discrepancy between the aforementioned Hopkins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson, where I am probably willing to pay the difference to get the Minnesota Vikings’ pass catcher in my lineup. It helps that Arizona is allowing the sixth-most points-per-game and eighth-most passing yards and touchdowns in the league.
Targets: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson — he will be in every lineup in which I can afford his salary — and Adam Thielen
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Of all of the teams in the league that are off to disappointing starts on the year, the Raiders and Saints embody the league-wide sense of underachievement. The Raiders had high hopes coming into the season, but find themselves sitting at 2-4. Despite their struggles, the offense has found a way to score 19 or more points in every game this year and 29 or more in each of their last three games. Considering the Saints defense has allowed the second most points in the league, there is no reason to think the Raiders won’t keep up at least solid production thanks to their few top weapons. The Saints offense has been surprisingly effective considering their 2-5 record to go along with the never ending injury list they have been dealing with. It isn’t always pretty, but the offense is scoring points having reached 25 or more points in four straight games. Both of these teams feel like a mess, but that may make people overlook this game when in reality, these teams have produced some of the highest scoring games of the year, and this game quietly has the second highest over/under for the Week 8 slate of games.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Andy Dalton, and Chris Olave
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The main storyline for the New Orleans Saints remains their quarterback position, and I can’t stress enough how the organization has completely failed in identifying its true direction. Originally, the Saints believed they were Super Bowl contenders with Jameis Winston at the helm, but then kept Andy Dalton as the starter even when it appeared Winston was healthy enough to play. How was New Orleans rewarded for this confidence in Dalton? He threw three interceptions, two of which were directly returned for touchdowns. I simply can’t trust any of the options for the Saints right now although, just like in previous weeks, taking a stand with one of them is probably going to differentiate a lineup from the field. Defensively, the Saints appear to be one of the worst in the league, but the yardage totals are actually far better than the points allowed. I wouldn’t be too eager to load my roster with players from the Las Vegas Raiders.
Targets: Davante Adams, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram II, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas — if he plays — and both defenses
Fades: Mostly everyone else
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a promising few weeks, the Patriots just put on a massive clunker against the very beatable Bears, and the quarterback juggling is definitely a concern moving forward. Mac Jones is expected to start this game, but after last week’s early benching, it is hard to know what his confidence level, and his leash, will look like this week. That will be tested against a Jets defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game across their last 4 games. The Jets offense has managed just enough to support their defense during their current win streak, but almost all of their production has come on the legs of the now-injured Breece Hall. With Hall out, there will be far more pressure on the rest of this unit, and they have not shown me nearly enough this year to buy in now that they are down their best player. My expectations for this game couldn’t be much lower.
Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, Patriots Defense, and Michael Carter
Fades: Mac Jones and Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s been quite awhile since the New York Jets and New England Patriots met in a relatively big game where the pressure — and positive momentum — was all with the Jets. They are now 5-2 and hosting a Patriots team that is apparently in the middle of a quarterback controversy. The bigger deal, however, is that New York will be without arguably its best and most important offensive player in running back Breece Hall. The Jets have been creative enough in the past to not expect a sudden disaster, but the ceiling for their offense is limited.
Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, Michael Carter, Garrett Wilson, Braxton Berrios, and both defenses
Fades: Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Eagles are still standing as the lone undefeated team, they are coming off of a bye week, and the Steelers have been essentially terrible on all fronts this season. There may not be an easier game for the public to look at and immediately “know” what is going to happen. We, on the other hand, love to be difficult and avoid such obvious predictions. The Steelers defense has struggled this entire season, but over their last two games, they have allowed just 18 and 16 points to offenses loaded with high-end talent. That is giving us some optimism that the defense can regain the form we always expect from them, especially considering they match up fairly well with the Eagles offense. The Eagles offense is entirely based on its ground attack, as they lead the league in rush attempts, and the Steelers defense ranks 6th in yards allowed per rush attempt. I am not sure I am ready to trust the Steelers offense enough to secure this upset victory, but I expect their defense to help keep them in this game much closer than many people would like to expect.
Targets: Najee Harris, George Pickens, Steelers Defense, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, and A.J. Brown
Fades: Kenny Pickett
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing that the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense has not been as dominant as in prior years, but the team has now only allowed a combined 34 points over the last two weeks. Combining that with the Philadelphia Eagles failing to reach 30 points since Opening Day and we might have a lower ceiling for the only undefeated team left in the league. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia ranks fourth-best in yards and points allowed on a per-game basis. The only weakness is the run defense, which is the fifth-worts in yards-per-carry.
Targets: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, and both defenses — where you can use the Steelers’ defense if you are trying to be ‘contrarian’
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I try to avoid being completely dismissive of a game, but this game is about as unappealing as it gets. The Texans struggles are very well documented as they have just one victory on the season and have struggled mightily on both offense and defense. Outside of the emergence of Dameon Pierce, this team simply doesn’t have much going for it at the moment. The Titans are 4-2 and seemingly in control of the AFC South, but things have hardly been smooth for them this year. Their offense ranks 31st in the league in yards, 21st in points, and 26th in yards per rush attempt. Both teams’ offensive game plans are to give the ball to their running backs and pray that they make something happen. Both backs are capable, but this game screams offensive mediocrity outside of them.
Targets: Derrick Henry, Titans Defense, Dameon Pierce, and Texans Defense
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is truly questionable for his division game against the Houston Texans, but I’m not so sure it matters for fantasy purposes. I am out on Tannehill this week anyway, and I’m certainly not leaning on rookie Malik Willis, despite his ability to run. I am actually mildly intrigued by targeting players from Houston, as Tennessee ranks seventh-worst defensively in yards-per-game.
Targets: Davis Mills, Dameon Pierce, Brandin Cooks, and Derrick Henry
Fades: Titans quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None, but I might slide Cooks into this category if teammate Nico Collins is out
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In an ironic twist of fate, the Carson Wentz Bowl will feature neither Wentz nor Matt Ryan who was brought in to replace Wentz. Instead, we are set to watch Taylor Heinicke face off against Sam Ehlinger. Heinicke has a decent amount of NFL tape to judge expectations, but this will be the first NFL regular season start for Sam Ehlinger who is tasked with turning around the season for the once Super Bowl hopeful Colts. As someone who has been saying for years that the Colts were finally a quarterback away from being true contenders, I actually think this move may provide immediate dividends. Matt Ryan is simply not mobile enough to operate an NFL offense at this stage of his career given his decline in arm talent as well. While mobility isn’t everything for a quarterback, Ehlinger’s ability to maneuver in the pocket is likely to open up more opportunities for the entire offense. The Commanders are coming off a victory over the Packers, but that is proving to not be that impressive anymore, so I expect them to be overvalued this week. I like leaning on the Colts for a “surprise” victory at home this week.
Targets: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Sam Ehlinger, Jonathan Taylor, and Michael Pittman Jr.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I can’t believe we are about to watch a game between Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger, but such is the state of the Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts, respectively. There is no statistical ground for this, but I can absolutely see a path where this game produces a high fantasy output, if only because of the unprecedented nature of so many unknowns. Really, the scores may not be great, but the popularity should be low that anything offensive to come out of the game will likely be worthwhile in a big tournament.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Jr., Brian Robinson, Jr., and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even before the addition of Christian McCaffrey, I constantly struggled to have faith in the 49ers offense for the sake of DFS lineups. There aren’t many teams that have as reliable of touch distribution as the 49ers, but even being able to count on the same few players to receive heavy touches, the offense doesn’t lend itself to high fantasy output for the most part. McCaffrey’s presence may muddy the waters further, but it remains to be seen what his usage will be once he is fully up to speed. If he commands the volume we are used to seeing, he will be a must play regularly, but the rest of the offense will become that much harder to trust. Coming off of a bye week, it is easy to have faith in the Rams, but history is not on their side. For all of the Rams success in the Sean McVay era, they have struggled mightily against the 49ers in the regular season. The Rams may struggle to move the ball on this 49ers defense which sets this game up to be largely a fantasy disappointment.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Cooper Kupp
Fades: Jimmy Garapollo
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: An NFC West rematch from a few weeks ago, the Los Angeles Rams are returning from their bye to take on the league’s third-best defense in yards-per-game. I would have to think that we see a better showing from the Rams’ offense this time around, which means that someone like wide receiver Cooper Kupp should lead the charge. That’s not exactly hard-hitting analysis considering Kupp saw an insane 19 targets in his last game against the San Francisco 49ers. The other side of the matchup is equally interesting, as running back Christian McCaffrey has now had a full week with his new team, but he will face a Rams defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards-per-game. I’m not going to be too aggressive with players from San Francisco.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Darrel Henderson, Jr., Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Rams defense, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel — if he plays — and George Kittle
Fades: None, but I’m not targeting too much offensive in this game
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a season full of surprises, these two teams present possibly the biggest positive surprises across the league. Even those who were high on the Giants — us included — would not have pegged them as a 6-1 and team entering Week 8, and nobody in their right mind would’ve guessed the Seahawks would be in sole possession of first place in the NFC West at this stage. For all of their overachieving, neither of these offenses is spitting out elite fantasy performances left and right with the exception of Saquon Barkley. Both teams have had their moments and games, but their victories have largely been methodical and team based rather than any individual shining for the fantasy world to relish. Wan’Dale Robinson seems to be claiming a heavy target share within the Giants depleted wide receiver room, but outside of him, this is Barkley’s offense. Both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have had big games, but they have been inconsistent, and Metcalf is not expected to play this week which will put the emphasis that much further on the run game. This game seems like a perfect setup for two teams to lean on the ground game and aim to keep the game close until the 4th quarter where they try to squeeze out another victory.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker III, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Two of the biggest surprises for much of the football-watching world will square off on Sunday afternoon, and there are a few different paths to a nice fantasy output. The Seattle Seahawks have scored the fifth-most points-per-game in the league and appear to have found a star in rookie running back Kenneth Walker III. The New York Giants have steadily scored at least 23 points in three consecutive weeks and at least 20 points in five-of-their-seven games this year. They, too, have a star at the running back position in Saquon Barkley. Those are the two most likely studs for a DFS lineup on Sunday, but there are a few playmakers also worth considering.
Targets: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, Tyler Lockett — especially if DK Metcalf can’t play — Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is hard to imagine things being much worse for the Packers right now. They have lost three straight games to the Giants, Jets, and Commanders, their struggling offense is down multiple wide receivers — of which they have little to spare — and their defense has allowed 23 or more points in four straight games. In a fun reality, the Packers are gifted with probably their toughest opponent of the season during what will likely be their lowest point of the year. The Bills offense ranks first in total yards and second in total points while their defense ranks first in yards and scoring. To make matters that much worse, Buffalo is also coming off their bye week so they are rested and prepared for this matchup. Every fiber in my being wants to say that Aaron Rodgers is going to pull off a stunner on primetime this week, and for the sake of being contrarian, I may even gamble on it, but the “safe” play is to trust seven weeks worth of evidence and expect a fairly controlled victory for the Bills.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Romeo Doubs, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Isiah McKenzie
Fades: A.J. Dillon
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I know I’m not alone in that I cannot accept the apparent demise of the Green Bay Packers at face value, but they are entering such a difficult matchup against the Buffalo Bills that they could easily look like a team that’s finished. Still, it is a nationally-televised game with one of the best quarterbacks to have played the game. I’m remaining aggressive in targeting Green Bay’s offense with the potential of gaining exposure to them at lower popularity. I can also make an argument that Buffalo doesn’t completely explode, as it returns to action after a two-week layoff and scoring no more than 24 points in three-of-their-prior-four games. Green Bay has also allowed the eighth-fewest yards-per-game.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson — if he plays — Robert Tonyan, and Packers defense if you want to be ‘contrarian’
Fades: If looking for a way to differentiate, Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a year of strange outcomes all over the NFL, and surprisingly low scoring across the league, the Browns have been the gift that keeps on giving week in and week. Last week’s 23-20 loss to the Ravens tied their season low point total for a single game which is an amazing fact given the league scoring average is the lowest it has been in roughly two decades. The Bengals got off to a sluggish start this season, but their offense has come to life the past two weeks, and even without Ja’Marr Chase, I expect Joe Burrow to be able to put up points on this Browns defense which has allowed 23 or more points to every opponent they have faced not named the Steelers. The Bengals defense has quietly put together a great start to this season, but the Browns ability to run the ball in any game script behind their elite offensive line has allowed their offense to be successful nearly every week. This game may not be the highest scoring matchup of the week, but it figures to be a lock for 40 plus total points and with each team leaning on a few key players, there is plenty of fantasy value to be had here.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, and Harrison Bryant
Fades: Bengals Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing about the Cleveland Browns as a team more based on offense than defense, but the numbers support it. They rank sixth-best in yards-gained-per-game and only 16th in yards-allowed-per-game. As always, it’s the running backs that lead the way, and that shouldn’t change against a Cincinnati Bengals defense ranked 20th in years-allowed-per-carry. Cincinnati’s offense has finally clicked with the team scoring a whopping 75 points over the last two weeks, but I’m a little leery of asking for a third consecutive game with at least 30 points. It can happen, but I’m lowering the ceiling for the Bengals’ offense.
Targets: Jacoby Brissett, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, Harrison Bryant, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Nick Chubb, and Amari Cooper is close