We have another comparatively small set of games ahead of us with one game already completed and four more teams on bye weeks. The main story, however, is the potential return of a few players coupled with a major trade that took place on Thursday night.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 7 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Here we are in Week 7, and the Atlanta Falcons are still being disrespected to the tune of being a touchdown underdog. The Falcons are 3-3, could easily be 4-2 or better, and have lost their 3 games by a combined 11 points. On top of the Falcons quietly great start to the season, given their expectations, is the fact that the Bengals have been largely mediocre. The Falcons have been overachieving as they have been a lock for 17 or more points all season while scoring 23 or more in 5 of 6 games, and the Bengals have been underachieving while scoring between 17 and 27 points in every game until finally hitting 30 last week. With all of that said, given the nature of these two teams, each team scoring 20 points feels like a near certainty in what should be another close game for the Falcons. Close games where both teams are reaching the 20s always have the opportunity for significant fantasy scoring, so don’t shy away from this one.
Targets: Marcus Mariota, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd
Fades: Bengals Defense
Must-Owns: Tee Higgins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For as much as we have targeted the Atlanta Falcons throughout the year, a regression looms large in their future. Conversely, we have been careful with the Cincinnati Bengals, and the opposite regression — here, positive correction — appears to be in the future. The two meet on Sunday and, for the first time all year, I am more likely to target players from Cincinnati than Atlanta. That doesn’t mean that I will avoid the Falcons altogether, but the Bengals had consistently limited teams to an average of 15.8 points-per-game before giving up 26 to the Saints last week. There’s a cap to what Atlanta’s offense is likely to do.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Marcus Mariota, and Kyle Pitts
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Of every game this week, this one may be the most perplexing one of them all for me. For a month, the Lions offense was unstoppable no matter who was on the field for them until suddenly they were unable to score a single point against a Patriots team that was struggling mightily before that game. The Lions defense has been undeniably the worst group in the entire league, but the Cowboys offense hasn’t exactly looked good this season. Will the return of Dak Prescott in this matchup finally produce some potent offense for the Cowboys, or will this game shape up to be an overall dud? It is hard to know what to expect, but given the Lions coming off a bye week, and Prescott returning, I am going to make sure I have some exposure in this game, but I will be limiting it to the players that figure to see high volume rather than deep diving for targets.
Targets: Jamaal Williams, T.J, Hockenson, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, and CeeDee Lamb
Fades: Cowboys Defense
Must-Owns: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this point, I have no reason to avoid players from the Detroit Lions’ offense unless the setup is poor. That might appear to be the case on Sunday when the Lions take on the Dallas Cowboys, but Dallas thrives with its pass rush. Detroit happens to have one of the better offensive lines in the league. Coming off a shutout and a bye, we should see an inspired offensive performance from Detroit. On the other side of the ball, anyone can score against Detroit and, whether it’s Cooper Rush again under center or Dak Prescott returning from injury, the opportunity is there. I would exercise some caution though, as we saw Rush’s ineffectiveness on full display in his last outing, and there’s a chance that resurfaces here.
Targets: All offensive players from Detroit, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, and CeeDee Lamb
Fades: Cowboys defense
Must-Owns: None, but I will have someone from Detroit in most lineups
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is not unfair to say the Colts have been one of the sloppiest teams in the league this season, yet they somehow find themselves with a winning record entering Week 7. The Titans are fresh off of a bye week after rattling off three consecutive victories. Despite both of these teams having winning records, I am finding it hard to have much confidence in either offense. Matt Ryan has looked lost for most of the season as the Colts rank 27th in points scored, 21st in net yards per pass attempt and 30th in yards per rush attempt. The Titans numbers aren’t any better as they are 31st in yards on the season while ranking 27th in league in yards per rush attempt. This feels like a game where Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry are leaned on all game long and there simply won’t be enough plays or passing to lead to significant fantasy production.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Derrick Henry, and Titans Defense
Fades: Matt Ryan
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels like it was only a few short weeks ago when we wrote about an AFC South game between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts, but that’s because it was only a few short weeks ago when they last met. At that time, the Colts were primed for a big outing against their rivals, and they failed miserably. Is the second time the charm? Maybe, as Tennessee is allowing the fifth-most yards-per-game. We did just see Colts quarterback Matt Ryan explode for a season-high 389 yards, so there is definitely some regression in the future. The good news for Ryan, however, is that he has thrown for at least 350 yards in three-of-his-six starts this year. For the Titans, we always look for the offense to flow through running back Derrick Henry, and nothing changes on Sunday.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and Derrick Henry
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but I can see myself targeting Jonathan Taylor in many lineups
Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It was easy to still feel pretty good about the Packers when they were 3-1 even though they hadn’t been playing great football. Now, they are 3-3 coming off back-to-back losses to the Giants and the Jets and everything seems like a disaster. The offense seems to have stalled, and the defense doesn’t appear to be playing up to its expectations. While all of that is completely valid, the Packers also seem to be a tad unlucky when you take a deeper look at their numbers. The Packers offense is 24th in the league in yards, but they are 15th in yards. That is something that typically starts to correct itself and level off — if the yards continue, the points should follow. The Packers defense is 15th in points allowed, and they have 24 or 27 points in three consecutive games, but they rank 5th in yards and have only allowed more than 300 yards of offense in two games this season. A matchup against the Commanders likely presents an opportunity for both sides of the Packers team to get things corrected — even if the Commanders may be better off with Taylor Heinicke under center.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, Brian Robinson Jr., and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Commanders Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Is this the game where we finally see the Green Bay Packers’ offense perform as it has in the past? The success or failure of a DFS lineup might rest on that exact question. Green Bay has a big outing ahead of it somewhere, and it has scored fewer points in three consecutive weeks. The Washington Commanders aren’t pathetic on defense, but they don’t turnover opponents and they have allowed twelve passing touchdowns on the year — the fifth-most in the league. I’m fine with taking another chance with playmakers from Green Bay. I’m not as fine leaning on the Commanders’ offense, even though I have supported quarterback Taylor Heinicke in the past. The Packers rank fifth-best in yards-allowed-per-game, while Washington is averaging fewer than 12 points-per-game over the last four weeks.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Allen Lazard, Packers defense, Brian Robinson, Jr., and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Mostly everyone else from Washington
Must-Owns: None, but Aaron Rodgers is close
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Things have been a struggle this year for the Buccaneers, but this game is an ideal bounce back situation for them. They get to take aim at the arguably the worst offense in the league who has now traded the only player that was capable of making plays on their own in Christian McCaffrey while also sending away Robbie Anderson. You have to understand the position the Panthers are in and why they made those moves, but boy does it leave their offense looking extremely devoid of talent. D.J. Moore could see an insane amount of targets, but it is hard to have any faith in anyone in the offense. With so many touches now available, it is definitely possible that value opens up for the cheap players on the Panthers, but it is a risky proposition. The Buccaneers offense should get a big boost this week thanks to extra possessions and great field position at times.
Targets: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Buccaneers Defense, D.J. Moore, Chuba Hubbard, and D’Onta Foreman
Fades: Panthers Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Much to my dismay, the P.J. Walker experience did not go well for the Carolina Panthers. Now, he is injured, but another quarterback I have supported in the past might return to the field in Sam Darnold. If he’s active, I would certainly throw a dart with him in one lineup. Otherwise, the main story is the trade of Christian McCaffrey. That gives some more opportunities to Chuba Hubbard, but the reality is that the Panthers’ defense is likely the only means to a competitive game. I have lowered my expectations for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense since the start of the year and, even though it is a risk that they may have excellent starting field position, I am doing the same for Sunday.
Targets: Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Leonard Fournette
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Giants and the Jaguars were two of our favorite underdog teams coming into this season, and while their records are wildly different, both have been better than expected to some degree. Both of these offenses have shown glimpses of high-end play, but they have struggled with consistency. Considering both of these defenses have been solid this year, my expectations are not very high for this game. The one thing that does stand out is the Jaguars ranking 32nd in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt. Saquon Barkley is the only player in this game that has been a great play every week this season, and he should be in line for another big game this week.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Wan’Dale Robinson, Daniel Bellinger, Travis Etienne Jr., and Christian Kirk
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Doesn’t it feel like the New York Giants play the same exact game every Sunday? That is, they struggle for awhile, keep the game close enough, and then deliver with a big play when it is needed. While that is truly extraordinary in terms of winning the game, I can’t support targeting too many players from New York outside of running back Saquon Barkley. The Jacksonville Jaguars showed some heart of their own last week after rebounding from an unacceptable six-point outing against the Texans to score 27 points against the Colts. Granted, Jacksonville lost, but the usual fantasy stars shined brightly and should continue to do so this week.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, Travis Etienne, Jr., Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Wan’Dale Robinson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every week it continues to feel wrong, but every week it continues to be predictably true: you can count on the Cleveland Browns providing a high-scoring game every time they touch the field. The Browns continue to be the exact opposite of what you would expect, but their games are averaging just under 52 total points through 6 weeks and have had a low mark of 44 thus far. Considering the Ravens boast the 5th highest scoring offense in the league and the 20th ranked defense in terms of points allowed, this game has all the makings of another offense-filled outing. This is a game absolutely worth targeting heavily, and as we love, both teams largely continue to rely on a narrow group of playmakers, so we can continue to roster them without hesitation.
Targets: Jacoby Brissett, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake, Devin Duvernay, and Mark Andrews
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None, but this game will be a top target of mine
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It may not seem this way because they hold a 2-4 record, but the Cleveland Browns have scored the seventh-most points-per-game and tallied the fourth-most yards-per-game. They aren’t just efficient, they are excelling. Of course, most of their success comes from the ground game, but the Baltimore Ravens rank 25th in yards allowed. Why would anything change for Cleveland? For the Ravens, the main storyline has been quarterback Lamar Jackson’s struggles late in games, but that hardly matters to us for DFS purposes. All we want is opportunities, and Jackson should remain a top-flight fantasy player until said opportunities dwindle. It’s not likely to happen anytime soon, especially against the Browns. They allow the third-most points-per-game.
Targets: Jacoby Brissett, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake, Devin Duvernay, and Mark Andrews
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Nick Chubb
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels wrong, but there is almost no way you can argue that the Broncos are a better football team than the Jets right now. In the first quarter of last week’s game, it seemed like the Broncos may finally have figured something out, but that quickly went away as we saw much of the same stagnant offense we have seen all season. The Jets have scored a whopping 91 points over their current three game winning streak, but I am still not sold on their offense. So much of that scoring has come from their defense and special teams making big plays. Over those same three games, the Jets offense is averaging only 316 yards per game — not nearly enough to be averaging over 30 points per game — and just under 179 passing yards per game. I can’t expect the defense and special teams to continue to carry them, so I am leaning towards a Broncos victory this week even though they don’t inspire much confidence.
Targets: Breece Hall, Courtland Sutton, Greg Dulcich, and Broncos Defense
Fades: Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Break up the New York Jets! It’s not enough that they are 4-2, but they have scored a whopping 67 points over the last two weeks. That’s noteworthy, even if the matchup with the Denver Broncos is not ideal. Denver ranks third-best in yards-allowed-per-game. Then again, New York sits at ninth in yards-per-game defensively. The numbers clearly point to a low-scoring outing — and I mention the 67 points through two weeks because special teams contributed to some of them — where I tend to agree with the trend. In fact, the Jets have scored eight touchdowns over the last two weeks and not a single one was via the pass.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Melvin Gordon III — he may be a huge leverage play — Courtland Sutton, Broncos defense, and Breece Hall
Fades: Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: When looking at the standings, this is a game of two of the worst teams in the NFL this season. When it comes to the Texans, the statistics seem to back that up, but the Raiders numbers inspire a bit more confidence. The talent on the Raiders offense also gives us more reason for optimism as well compared to a Texans offense that is in desperate need of some firepower. Both teams are coming off their bye week, so it is possible we see the very best version of both teams, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a lot. Both teams figure to continue leaning on a few players, so they are worth a look, but this game isn’t likely to be the type of high-octane matchup that can produce many fantasy standout performances.
Targets: Dameon Pierce, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, and Raiders Defense
Fades: Davis Mills
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Houston Texans’ offense certainly isn’t anything special, but the team has scored at least 20 points in three-of-its-five games this year. More importantly, the Las Vegas Raiders have allowed at least 23 points in every game this year, and they rank near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories with the exception of rush-yards-allowed-per-carry. There’s a path to both teams scoring, and I wouldn’t be afraid load up on players from this game in some of my lineups.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Davis Mills, Dameon Pierce, and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For many years, the narrative around the Chargers has been that their team is better than their record indicates. This year, things seem to be overcorrecting to a degree as even though they aren’t playing great, they are winning games. The Seahawks have been up and down offensively all season, but overall, they have struggled when facing tough defenses. In their three tougher games — against the Broncos, 49ers, and Cardinals — the offense is averaging 255 yards per game, and that just isn’t good. The Chargers defense hasn’t been dominant by any means, but they possess star power at all levels, and they should be able to largely contain this Seahawks team as they help improve their team to 5-2.
Targets: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, and Chargers Defense
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: Austin Ekeler
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m never one to take direct statistical matchups at face value, but this one is way too strong to ignore. The Seattle Seahawks are allowing the third-most yards-per-game in the league and the Los Angeles Chargers have tallied the seventh-most yards-per-game. I see no reason why that changes on Sunday and, if anything, the only path to a disappointment might be in the form of field goals instead of touchdowns. Still, as obvious as it may be, I am using players from Los Angeles in my lineups and not thinking twice about it. I also won’t avoid everyone from Seattle, as we continue to see the offense deliver on a regular basis. The Seahawks rank 12th in yards-per-game and have tallied at least 390 yards of total offense in three-of-their-last-four games.
Targets: Everyone from the Chargers, Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, and DK Metcalf
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The 49ers have made a big splash in acquiring Christian McCaffrey, but it is up in the air as to whether or not he will make his debut this week. Whether he plays or not, it is likely not worth rostering him this week as he won’t see enough volume to warrant his price tag anywhere. McCaffrey’s presence will essentially make Jeff Wilson Jr. an afterthought, and it will likely lead to a few less touches/targets per game for the other 49ers playmakers. This was already an offense that wasn’t exciting to me due to their generally limited fantasy output, and McCaffrey’s impact could make the rest of the offense that much harder to trust in the world of fantasy football even if it makes the offense better in real life. The Chiefs have one of their tougher matchups, but I am never opposed to owning some shares of their top players especially when the rest of the world may be a bit down on them.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle
Fades: 49ers Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious lead story for the San Francisco 49ers is the acquisition of running back Christian McCaffrey. He might suit up in a big game against the Kansas City Chiefs, but I’m not sure how the DFS websites will handle his availability. If I can play him, I will. Otherwise, his presence opens the door for the usual playmakers to contribute, which they will likely have to do against an outstanding Chiefs team. That is, if the Chiefs can score. I’m always willing to buy into Kansas City and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but the Chiefs will face the league’s best defense in San Francisco. I’m not staying away — mainly because there’s a chance that others do — but I won’t make Chiefs players the centerpiece of my lineup if I only put together one build.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey — if active and if the DFS website allow it — Jeff Wilson, Jr. — if McCaffrey doesn’t play as he might have extra volume in preparation for a shared workload — Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, 49ers defense — it’s worth the risk if using multiple lineups — Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Travis Kelce
Fades: None
Must-Owns:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Steelers and Dolphins may have gone through the most irregular seasons of any teams in the league. Both teams have had quarterback injuries/controversies, impressive comeback wins, and ugly losses. Both teams are known for their defenses, but both units rank outside of the top 20 in yards and points allowed. While both Kenny Pickett and Tua Tagovailoa are on track to start, both carry some risk to them given their recent head injuries and the added scrutiny facing how teams are handling injuries. Both offenses contain high-end talent and should be able to put together some big plays against each other’s defenses that have struggled to live up to their reputations this year. It may be ugly at times, but this game has potential to sneak into high-scoring territory which would be a welcomed sight for a Primetime game.
Targets: Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Tua Tagovailoa is in-line to start for the Miami Dolphins, and that immediately puts the team under the spotlight on national television. There’s no reason to think that he fails — he has elite playmakers at the wide receiver position and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense has been a far-cry from what we would have expected. The sneakier play is Pittsburgh’s offense, which will again be led by Kenny Pickett under center. The Steelers arguably kept alive what little hope for their season was left in a key win last week, and they will likely battle in Primetime again on Sunday. I’m fine with using this matchup as the source of my offense for the two-game slate.
Targets: Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Patriots season got off to a rocky start, but they have righted the ship over the last few weeks. Their offense has woken up from their slumber to the tune of 24-plus points in each of their three games while the defense has allowed just 15 points over the last two games. The Bears record has self-corrected after starting the year 2-1 as they have now lost three straight games. Their inability to move the ball through the air is going to continue holding them back, but if they can run the ball effectively — the Patriots defense is 22nd in yards allowed per rush attempt — then they stand a chance to keep this game close. This feels like a game where both teams lean heavily on the ground game, and we grind through another primetime game that leaves us wondering where all the offense has gone throughout the league this year.
Targets: David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jakobi Meyers, and Patriots Defense
Fades: Justin Fields
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, it is unclear if Mac Jones will start on Monday night or if we will see Bailey Zappe for the third consecutive start. On one hand, it shouldn’t matter too much in that the New England Patriots want to win by playing solid defense and running the ball well. Both are extremely plausible as the Chicago Bears are averaging the second-fewest points-per-game in the league. They have also turned the ball over ten times in six games — with at least one in every matchup. Of course, the running ability of quarterback Justin Fields helps raise his floor, but he is a clear high risk-reward play in this game.
Targets: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Jakobi Meyers, and Patriots defense
Fades: Bears defense
Must-Owns: Rhamondre Stevenson