It’s always interesting to find the connection — or lack thereof — between a schedule of exciting games and ones that are built for DFS. Week 6 appears to have the former, where some of the matchups are ‘must-watch’ television. The problem? They don’t necessarily contain ‘must-own’ players. As always, our job is to find those worth targeting anyway.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 6 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For five weeks now, we have pretty confidently been supporting Falcons games in the fantasy football realm as their defense has struggled, and their offense has kept them close in every game. While it has been a pretty safe formula, albeit unspectacular, I am abandoning the Falcons this week. Their offense has slowed down the past two weeks, and without Cordarrelle Patterson, they are missing the key to the whole offense. It also doesn’t help that the 49ers defense has been downright dominant this year ranking first in total yards and scoring thus far. The 49ers offense may seem appealing in this matchup, but despite their efficiency and generally solid play, the fantasy production has been nothing to get excited about. Deebo Samuel has only eclipsed 15 fantasy points in one game this season, and at his price, that is not good enough. Brandon Aiyuk is averaging less than 10 points per game, and George Kittle is yet to score 10 points since returning from injury in Week 3. Jeff Wilson Jr. has been playing well, and even he has only surpassed 15 fantasy points one time. Simply put, the 49ers outlook destroys our usual support of targeting Falcons games.
Targets: Jeff Wilson Jr., 49ers Defense, Drake London
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Atlanta Falcons certainly have their work cut out for them as they take on the league’s best defense in essentially every category. If there is a relative weakness — emphasis on “relative” — it’s that the San Francisco 49ers don’t create takeaways. It hardly matters, though, as the 49ers simply don’t allow yards. We have seen Atlanta find points in every type of matchup so far, and there might be a sneaky upside where their players won’t be as popular. Still, it’s asking a lot from them. The Falcons’ defense is below-average, and the 49ers will probably take their typical approach of running the ball constantly — sixth-most rush attempts and fifth-fewest pass attempts — and getting it in the hands of a playmaker like Deebo Samuel.
Targets: Jeff Wilson, Jr., Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Marcus Mariota, Travis Allgeier, and Drake London
Fades: Jimmy Garroppolo
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I touched on this last week, but I can’t help but reiterate how backwards this Cleveland Browns team is this season. They are supposed to be playing great defense and struggling on offense with Jacoby Brissett. Instead, their offense has piled up the 4th most total yards and scored the 6th most points in the league while the defense has allowed 23 or more points to every team they have faced outside of the Steelers. With all of that said, this game feels pretty similar to the Patriots and Lions game last week where we felt like the Patriots were the perfect team to somehow change that improbable scoring difference. Both of these teams love to feature the running game, and that sets the stage for a fairly low-scoring, fast game as both teams control the ball and run the clock.
Targets: Patriots Defense, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Amari Cooper
Fades: Bailey Zappe and Jacoby Brissett
Must-Owns: Rhamondre Stevenson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not sure people are making enough noise about how the New England Patriots won last week. They played well on both sides of the ball and, while we can knock the Lions for being a team that almost everyone has beaten, they still entered last week with the top offense in the sport. New England shut them out. The Cleveland Browns currently have no desire to deviate from their gameplan, and the losing record is not an indication of how they have played. The floor for their running back duo is a little shakier against the Patriots’ defense, but I wouldn’t avoid them altogether. For New England, the loss of running back Damien Harris forces the workload more onto the shoulders of Rhamondre Stevenson. He will probably be popular this week — and rightfully so — but I would be careful before using him in every one of my lineups. There is a route to another backfield-by-committee as head coach Bill Belichick has utilized in the past.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Patriots defense
Fades: None, but I am definitely approaching this game with caution
Must-Owns: None, although Stevenson is close, and I may use him wherever salary allows
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Yes, I saw the Packers lose to the Giants in London, and yes, I saw the Jets beat the Dolphins, but no, I don’t care. I am immediately throwing out that Jets game considering 7th round rookie, Skyler Thompson, was thrust into action when Teddy Bridgewater got hurt in the Dolphins first play of the game. The Packers offense, which is receiving far more criticism than their play deserves, will be a different animal this week. I am not just sitting here trying to bash the Jets as they have clearly started to assemble some real talent. With that said, I don’t think they are quite there yet, and traveling to Green Bay to face a Packers team with something to prove doesn’t bode well for Wilson and the Jets.
Targets: Breece Hall, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Allen Lazard, and Romeo Doubs
Fades: Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: Packers Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing about the Green Bay Packers’ offense as a slightly more disappointing group than we would like. That trend continued last week, even in an inspired effort at the onset of the game. The Packers have now failed to break 27 points in all five games this year. The good news is that they still rank ninth-best in yards-per-game. I am certainly not avoiding their offensive players, but I am acknowledging that it might have to funnel through only a few names. The reality is that Green Bay’s defense has been quite good and, outside of the two explosive rookies — running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson — I’m not sure I can ask anyone else on the New York Jets to deliver.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Allen Lazard, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It may seem impossible, but the Colts have not beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville since 2014. To lose that many games to a division opponent is nearly impossible, let alone one who has had a losing record in all but one of those years. The streak continued into this season when Jacksonville dominated the Colts 24-0 back in Week 2. Normally an outcome like that would make us want to immediately jump ship and expect a heavy correction, but with the Colts inability to beat the Jaguars, it is hard to endorse them with a ton of confidence right now. My confidence in the Colts is further shaken by the fact that every running back on their team is battling some sort of injury and may or may not be available come Sunday. It is hard to say what to expect from this game, but both teams rely on such a small number of offensive players that for DFS purposes, we can continue to lean on the same select few players.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, A Healthy Colts Running Back and Michael Pittman Jr.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s one thing for the Indianapolis Colts to constantly lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s another level of ineptitude for Indianapolis to get shutout in its last meeting with Jacksonville. Clearly, I’m not expecting that to happen again, so I am willing to lean on a decent amount of offense from the Colts. The Jaguars have been worth a look almost every single week, and their ceiling is raised if Indianapolis does, indeed, put points on the board and push Jacksonville. Overall, I’m fine with most offensive players from this matchup, with a priority on the Colts.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor — if he plays — Michael Pittman, Jr., Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, Travis Etienne, Jr., and Christian Kirk
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Our confidence in the Dolphins’ offense remained solid with the change from Tua Tagovailoa to Teddy Bridgewater, but once Bridgewater exited, it was uphill sledding for Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins. The fact that they remained close in that game for three quarters was admirable, but it also limited the Dolphins’ need to throw the ball. This week, if their offense sputters early, they may find themselves playing from a significant deficit early against a Vikings offense that has been rolling for most of the year. The Dolphins’ defense has some talent, but that talent hasn’t meant much this year as they rank 25th in total yards, 29th in points allowed and 31st in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Minnesota should be able to exploit this group, which has the possibility of turning this game into a track meet. Skylar Thompson may not be anything great at all, but he may present great value if he is forced into a pass-heavy game script, and he is able to get the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and let them make plays.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith Jr., Skylar Thompson, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: Vikings Defense
Must-Owns: None, but I will be heavily targeting this game, and very tempted to play a lot of Skylar Thompson given his price tag, the potential game flow here, and the weapons at his disposal
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If nothing else, the game between the Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins has explosive playmakers from both sides of the matchup. Obviously, the main storyline is the status of the Dolphins’ quarterback but, even if it is Skylar Thompson again, his main focus is going to be to get the ball in the hands of the aforementioned playmakers. I won’t make this the main source for my DFS lineup, but I certainly will dip into this player pool to round out my roster.
Targets: Skylar Thompson, Tyreek Hill — who is close to a ‘must-play’ since the team will likely try to design plays around him — Jaylen Waddle, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: These are two of the most confusing teams in the league this year, so naturally, I am not excited by this matchup. We expected the Bengals to take a step back this year after, but their offensive line wasn’t supposed to be the issue, and their offense still has elite talent that should be shining every week. With that said, their entire offense has struggled as they rank 22nd in total yards, 16th in points scored, 22nd in net yards per pass attempt and 30th in yards per rush attempt. The talent is there, but something is not working. The Saints defense has not been nearly as good as their talent suggests they should be, but I would rather take a talented defense that has had struggles over a talented offense that is struggling and playing behind a seemingly inept offensive line. Overall, my expectations are not very high for this game despite the loads of talent on both offenses. The bevy of injury designations for both teams is not helping things.
Targets: Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals Defense, Alvin Kamara, Saints Defense
Fades: Joe Mixon
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The ongoing storyline for the New Orleans Saints remains the status of the team’s quarterback, but the explosive day by Taysom Hill is going to cause a ripple effect. We’ve seen it lower the ceiling for running back Alvin Kamara in the past, but Hill’s presence also knocks down the potential of any other quarterback on the roster. If you want to be different, then you will probably have to take a stand with one of them since it’s possible that the split approach moves everyone off of the group. The Cincinnati Bengals have not been overly impressive on offense — only 22nd in yards-per-game — but the Saints have actually won both of their games in which they allowed at least 350 yards while losing all three in which they limited opponents. There’s a decent chance for offense from both sides.
Targets: Ja’Marr Chase, Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston — if healthy — Alvin Kamara, and both defenses
Fades: Most of both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It seems safe to say that Daniel Jones is never going to be among the elite quarterbacks in this league, but you have to give him a tremendous amount of credit along with first time Head Coach Brian Daboll. This offense has been battered with injuries, yet Jones and Saquon Barkley have managed to carry this team to a 4-1 record which has included 3 game winning drives in the 4th quarter. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Giants are simply getting it done. The Ravens have almost been the opposite story where they have been playing great, yet they have found ways to lose games where they once had a big lead and find themselves as a somewhat disappointing 3-2 team heading into this game. Both of these offenses are unconventional in their own ways, but seemingly every week the same few players from each team keep finding a way to make plays, so I won’t ignore them this week.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Devin Duvernay, Mark Andrews, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Darius Slayton — assuming the other Giants wide receivers remain inactive this week — and Daniel Bellinger
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have bought into both the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens quite often this year, but their head-to-head meeting obviously presents some problems. The Giants’ offense has done well this year — and the Ravens’ defense has been quite bad, allowing the fifth-most yards-per-game — but how much longer can New York hold out without a healthy group of playmakers? I won’t avoid them entirely, but it’s hard to look past the usual suspects. The same is true for Baltimore, as tight end Mark Andrews has twice as many targets as anyone else on the team, while quarterback Lamar Jackson has 49 rushing attempts himself. The next-closest player is running back J.K. Dobbins at 28 carries. Dobbins is a little more intriguing than the number suggests, as he has accumulated that many rushing attempts in only three games.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Devin Duvernay, Mark Andrews, Saquon Barkley, and Darius Slayton
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Things were not pretty for the Steelers in Kenny Pickett’s first NFL start, but there was almost no chance of succeeding in that situation he was thrown into last week. While it was an all around ugly game, the one bright spot is the fact that the Steelers compiled 364 yards of offense which was their most on the season. Obviously, the game script forced the Steelers hand, but that may be the case once again this week. Since an amazing performance Week 1, which is also when they lost T.J. Watt, the Steelers defense has been borderline horrible. They have allowed 348 or more yards of offense in every game this season with three of those games coming against Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett, and Zach Wilson before being torched for over 500 yards of offense by the Bills. The Buccaneers offense hasn’t looked quite right this season, but their past two games have seen their highest yardage and point totals, so they are getting better. I expect them to beat up on this defense as everyone else has been doing which puts the Steelers offense in another position to throw all game long trying to play catch up.
Targets: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, and Chase Claypool
Fades: Najee Harris
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I always make it a point to avoid overreaction, but it is time to be concerned with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense. It stems largely from head coach Todd Bowels, who has shown that his greatest asset is on the defensive side of the ball. Through five games, Tampa Bay has scored 21 points or fewer four times. The Pittsburgh Steelers were just thoroughly embarrassed by the Bills, and I would have to think that a better defensive effort is in the works. That lowers the ceiling for an already-suspect Buccaneers offense. I know the matchup is treacherous on the other side of the ball, but Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has actually done quite well considering how quickly he was thrown into the metaphorical lion’s den. I would consider using him and a pass-catcher on Sunday.
Targets: Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, Steelers defense, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: Diontae Johnson
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Arguably the league’s worst offense in the Carolina Panthers is expected to roll out P.J. Walker under center this week, and despite how that may sound, could it actually be a positive? In the two games P.J. Walker has started for the Panthers over the past two seasons, the Panthers won 20-0 and 34-10 while Walker completed over 70% of his passes in each game. Now, his overall numbers were nothing to go crazy over, he has shown he can manage a game and provide some offense which is about as much as Baker Mayfield can say thus far this year. When you add in the massive struggles of the Rams offensive line, but the expected immediate boost a team gets after firing a Head Coach, it seems fair to expect the Panthers to compete in this game. The hard part is knowing whether they compete in a sloppy low-scoring game, or if the talent on these offenses finally shines and we get a surprise shootout. My money would probably be on the under, but at the same time, given the limited competition on both of these offenses for touches, it really doesn’t matter – play the usual guys and don’t think too much.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ll admit that I am one of the few P.J. Walker fans out there, but the reality is that he has been quite effective whenever he has had to step into the role of starting quarterback. His biggest flaw is his propensity to turn the ball over — which, in an honest moment, is why he isn’t a regular starting quarterback — and that raises the potential for the Los Angeles Rams’ defense. Still, because he isn’t an automatic loss for a team, Walker has upside both for himself and the rest of the key offensive players on the Carolina Panthers. Neither team has done well enough offensively to warrant complete trust for Sunday’s game — and both defenses have had bright spots at times — but there is also no reason to avoid the game entirely.
Targets: P.J. Walker, D.J. Moore, Panthers defense — if going ‘contrarian’ — Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee
Fades: Matthew Stafford
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a slow start to the season, the Seattle Seahawks offense has gone an improbable run of dominance over the last three weeks. Over the course of those three games, they have accumulated 103 total points, 1,371 total yards of offense, and they have turned themselves into a top 10 offense in almost every major category. While we have enjoyed being on the right side of their offensive outburst for a couple of those games, I won’t be counting on it this week. For starters, Geno Smith has been playing extremely well, and while that is great to see, I find it hard to believe he is suddenly an elite NFL quarterback that will continuously lead an explosive offense. On top of that, the offense will be hurting without Rashaad Penny. Kenneth Walker III has potential to ease that pain, but I can’t fully expect him to carry this offense right away. The Cardinals defense took a beating in Week 1 against the Chiefs, but since then they have not allowed more than 23 points in a game and that included matchups against Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts. I expect the Cardinals to win this game in a largely unexciting DFS performance all around.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Cardinals Defense, and Kenneth Walker III
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Seattle Seahawks keep delivering on offense, and one of the best takeaways from their success is that they are generally leaning on some players who always appeared to be fantasy-relevant. The one exception is obviously the injury to Rashaad Penny that will end his season, but that slides Kenneth Walker III into the starting role, where he should pick up Penny’s workload right away. The main concern, however, is if the Arizona Cardinals’ defense comes to play yet again. It has actually been one of the quieter solid squads in the league, where the Cardinals allowed a whopping 44 points on Opening Day to the Chiefs and then haven’t given up more than 23 points since. Not only can we forgive the matchup from Week 1, but it also shows as an outlier. Offensively, the Cardinals have yet to reach 30 points scored in a game — where they did it 9 times in the regular season last year — but they will face a Seahawks defense that ranks dead last in yards-allowed-per-game.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Cardinals Defense, Kenneth Walker III, and DK Metcalf
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: Eno Benjamin
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I don’t think you need to read my thoughts to know how you want to handle this game. For my money, you have a matchup of the league’s two best offenses, and nothing else really matters. Just in case you needed additional motivation to load up on these teams, the last four times they have faced off with one another the final scores have been 26-17, 38-24, 38-20, and 42-36. Simply put, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes love to go to battle against one another and it seemingly brings out the best in both quarterbacks. Look for this game to provide plenty of fireworks led by the star players on each offense.
Targets: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir, Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Josh Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It may not be an official Primetime game, but arguably the best matchup of the years will take place late on Sunday afternoon between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. There’s simply no way around expecting offense here, and any argument that I would make against it would simply be for the sake of taking the ‘contrarian’ approach. Do it if you dare, but just know that this head-to-head battle will be highly targeted. Perhaps more importantly, the league has been criticized for quite a few bad games to start the year — despite the number of close finishes we have had — and it would be a massive disappointment if this one were to fail. Expect the best that everyone has to offer. As an added bonus, the over-under point total is high and shows no indication of moving lower.
Targets: Both offenses
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but using at least one player from this matchup is likely a necessity
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: People are looking at this NFC East, Sunday Night Football showdown as a battle of possibly — or even probably — the two best teams in the NFC. While I can understand the excitement, I am not expecting this game to produce the offensive fireworks that some others might be. The Eagles offense has been good, but context is extremely important. Their first three games came against three bad defenses in the Lions, Vikings, and Commanders. Against an improved Jaguars defense, the Eagles managed 29 points, but they got 5 turnovers from their defense, so they really should have been better, and against a decent Cardinals defense, they were held to just 20 points. The Eagles ability to run the ball will always allow them to be generally productive, but this is their first matchup against a truly good defense, so my money is on them falling somewhere around 20 points again. The Cowboys are 4-1, but their offense is hardly to thank for that record. Their offense is 27th in the league in yards and 24th in points scored, but they have done just enough to win as their defense hasn’t allowed over 19 points in a game, and no more than 17 during their current 4 game win streak. This game has all the makings of a run-heavy, division rivalry slugfest where neither offense shines but merely does just enough to help their defense secure a critical victory.
Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys Defense, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders and DeVonta Smith
Fades: Cooper Rush
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Individually, we keep hearing about how the Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in football and how the Dallas Cowboys are heading toward a quarterback controversy. Neither comments are true and, oddly enough, I’m not hearing anything specific about this head-to-head matchup. It’s almost as if the football-watching world has decided that neither team will deviate from its current path after the game anyway, so why would it do so now? That feels like too easy and obvious of a thought pattern, where the Cowboys can’t continue to hold every single team to fewer than 20 points as they have done so far this season. Maybe they do on Sunday night, but won’t that catch up to their offense? Dallas ranks 24th in points-scored-per-game and 27th in yards-gained-per-game. There’s a decent path for the Eagles’ offense to take charge with added possessions and a stout offensive line that can combat Dallas’ pass rush.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Ezekiell Elliott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, and both defenses
Fades: Cooper Rush
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Coming into this season, my excitement level around the Broncos was sky-high. It is now Week 6, and I am sitting here thinking to myself, “Do I really have to watch Denver play another Primetime game already?” The Broncos offense has been downright bad, and while it may be hard to pinpoint exactly what is causing their problems, news of the injury to Russell Wilson’s throwing shoulder is not inspiring a ton of confidence in a sudden turnaround. With that said, the Chargers feel extremely due for a loss after essentially handing the game away last week in the final moments before being gifted a missed FG by the Browns. Football karma usually acts pretty swiftly, and while that may not be a true degree of analysis, sometimes that is the best way to look at the NFL. I expect the Broncos to win this game despite all of the struggles there, and given the struggles of the Chargers defense – they have allowed 24 or more points in 4 straight games which came against the Chiefs, Jaguars, Texans, and Browns – maybe this is the time the Broncos offense finally displays some degree of competence.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett
Fades: Chargers Defense
Must-Owns: Melvin Gordon III
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: How many more times are we going to have to watch the Denver Broncos on national television and witness the same offensive ineptitude? While the first part of that question may be out of their control — Denver doesn’t schedule the games — the latter is. Certainly, the 2-3 Broncos can’t expect to win many more games if they remain the second-worst scoring offense in the league, and they are in danger of falling behind even more in the division if they were to lose to the Los Angeles Chargers. I know that nothing has shown us an improvement is in the works, but I keep pointing out quarterback Russell Wilson’s ability to churn out wins throughout his career, and I will take a chance with him again on Monday night. The other reality is that the Broncos’ defense is as good as advertised, so the general assumption for this game is likely that it stays on the lower-scoring side. Of course, it’s possible — we have seen some awful offensive performances on Primetime this year — but the ‘contrarian’ play that isn’t an outrageous stretch of the imagination would be a high-scoring slugfest.
Targets: Melvin Gordon III, Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett
Fades: Chargers Defense
Must-Owns: Russell Wilson