We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season but, with the anticipation that players may rest in Week 18, this is likely the final full slate of games for which we can expect most teams’ best efforts. With 15 matchups ahead of us, we have no shortage of targets.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 17 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you want to know what struggling looks like in the NFL, go back and watch the past month of football for the Cardinals and/or the Falcons. The Cardinals have gone three straight games without breaking 20 points while the Falcons are currently riding a four game streak of scoring fewer than 20 points. Things have not been pretty for either team, and both teams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. Despite all of that, there is still potential for some decent fantasy production this week given the struggles that both of these defenses have had throughout the year. With Colt McCoy back under center, both James Conner and DeAndre Hopkins should be in line for good games against a very weak Falcons defense. Tyler Allgeier is quietly ending his rookie season on a high-note, and Desmond Ridder is targeting Drake London enough to bring him back to fantasy relevance as well.
Targets: James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Allgeier, and Drake London
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I wrote about this in my picks column, but don’t sleep on games that have no playoff implications. There is value to be had and, because people can’t see a clear path of how a matchup impacts the big picture — since, in this case, it doesn’t impact it at all — they tend to avoid it. Don’t make that same mistake. Granted, the game between the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons likely has little fantasy value anyway, but the Cardinals will be getting back Colt McCoy under center, so there is a little boost to the team’s passing game. Really, I am more intrigued with Atlanta’s offense after it has been a nonfactor for each of the games started by rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder. Playing at home against the team allowing the third-most points-per-game should help.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Cordarrelle Patterson, Travis Allgeier, Drake London, James Conner, and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: None, even though I am not going too heavy with this game
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Normally, a matchup of the Bears and Lions would jump out to me as a game to avoid, but no matter your feelings towards these teams, it is hard to ignore a game that features the 31st and 32nd ranked scoring defenses in the league. The Lions offense has had the highest of highs and the lowest of lows this year, but they generally play well when facing a poor defense, so I have no problem buying in this week in a critical game for their playoff fate. The Bears offense is infuriating in their own right, but coming off one of their worst games of the season – second worst rushing total – I like their odds to be productive on the ground against the league’s worst defense.
Targets: David Montgomery, Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and D.J. Chark
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Justin Fields
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Detroit Lions still have the league’s worst defense in both points and yards allowed and, even though I continually write about the Chicago Bears’ inability to win games, there is great potential for the offense on Sunday. Its output has diminished in recent weeks, but one of Chicago’s best games was against the Lions in Week 10, where the Bears scored 30 points and tallied 408 yards of offense. Of course, Detroit can allow yards and points at a frightening rate because its own offense has thrived all year. At the risk of being too ‘chalky’ with my expectation, there’s a good chance that this game is a gold mine for fantasy output.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, David Montgomery, Chase Claypool — if healthy — Equanimeous St. Brown — if healthy — Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week, the Chiefs had one of their worst offensive games of the year. That “poor performance” included 297 yards of offense and 24 points scored — that total yardage was their lowest of the season. Between their extremely high floor of yards, and the fact that they have only been held to fewer than 20 points one time all season, I will always recommend buying into this offense. Even against a strong defense, I have no fears, and the fact that Kansas City put up 34 against this same Broncos team back in Week 14 gives me any reassurance needed. The Broncos seemingly continue to find new lows as the season drags on, but they have to get better after last week’s 51-14 loss to the lowly Rams that led to firing their Head Coach, Nathaniel Hackett…right? With Hackett’s firing, I am inclined to lean in for a slight uptick in the Broncos offense, especially given the likelihood of playing from a deficit against the Chiefs. I won’t be going crazy, but sprinkling in some ownership to the Broncos passing game feels like a worthy gamble this week.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Greg Dulchic, Patrick Mahomes, Jerrick McKinnon, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Chiefs Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As usual, everything is reeling with the Denver Broncos, and their forgettable season continues with the firing of its head coach. It was a necessary move given how disappointing of a year this has been, but one of the bright spots was Denver’s last game against the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s dangerous to expect a repeat of that performance this week, but there is so much uncertainty that the Broncos’ offense will be thoroughly overlooked. I would like some exposure to that in case it delivers with a new coach and in the same matchup that had worked in the past. I am also lowering the ceiling for the Chiefs’ offense because of how well Denver’s defense had played prior to a complete embarrassment at the hands of the lowly Rams.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Latavius Murray, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Jerick McKinnon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Miami Dolphins are once again without Tua Tagovailoa due to a concussion, and without diving too much into that situation, that is becoming extremely concerning on many levels. For at least this week, they will be turning quarterbacking duties over to Teddy Bridgewater which hasn’t ended well for them in the past. I will always be willing to take some shots with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as they are explosive enough to turn any play into a big one, but the overall effectiveness of the Dolphins offense is likely going to take a hit. The Patriots are in the midst of probably the most drama filled season on the field we have ever seen under Bill Belichick, but a win this week keeps them firmly in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the AFC. Playing against Bridgewater, I like their chances of keeping the game close with strong defensive play. The big question will be what will we see from their offense this week, and can they avoid the cringe-worthy plays we have seen throughout the year. The Miami defense offers a fairly generous matchup, so I’ll be backing the Patriots for a win this week.
Targets: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jakobi Meyers
Fades: Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are two major storylines in the game between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. The first is the status of Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. As of this writing, Tagovailoa is not expected to play. That leads to the second storyline: the joint playoff push by both teams. This game will go a long way in determining the AFC Wild Card picture, and the absence of Tagovailoa means that New England can try to win this game with defense. That doesn’t mean that it will happen, but it places a higher risk on the dynamic wide receivers from Miami where the Patriots can gameplan around taking away their explosive opportunities. I may dabble with some players from this game, but only in moderation.
Targets: Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jacobi Meyers, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and both defenses
Fades: Whichever quarterback starts for Miami
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this point in the season, there are some teams that you become so turned off by that you can’t even stomach the thought of targeting in DFS, and that is where I stand with the Colts. They continue to find new ways to embarrass themselves, and there is not a single redeeming quality at this moment. It may be unfair to completely disregard them, but I would not be able to forgive myself if a lineup was ruined because I expected something from a Colts player at this point. The Giants offense isn’t exactly the most reliable on a weekly basis, but I think the matchup is decent enough, and the game flow should work in the favor enough, to provide a low stress game for the offense. My exposure to this game will be limited and solely focused on the Giants players.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Isaiah Hodgins, and Giants Defense
Fades: Colts Offense
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The storyline is simple: if the New York Giants win, they make the playoffs. That’s how everyone will view it, and it should lead to extreme popularity for running back Saquon Barkley as he is the key factor for New York’s offense. That, and the Giants’ defense might gain some love against an Indianapolis Colts’ offense that was a complete joke last week. The reality is that this game isn’t likely to have both teams contributing to a high score, but both offenses have too few weapons to spread the ball around to everyone. There are a few players through which the gameplan may be funneled.
Targets: Both quarterbacks — definitely to be ‘contrarian’ — Saquon Barkley, Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, Michael Pittman, Jr., and both defenses
Fades: Mostly everyone else
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: When Andy Dalton first took over quarterbacking for the Saints, their offense seemed to take off. Fast forward to now, and their offense is sputtering as they cling on to the slightest of hopes to win the NFC South. The Saints have scored a high of 21 points over the past four games, and a matchup against the Eagles doesn’t bode well for their chances in any regard. Whether or not Jalen Hurts is able to play, I have no problem backing the Eagles offense this week as I expect their defense to give them plenty of opportunities to score. I don’t think we will see a top performance from the Eagles as the Saints defense has allowed no more than 18 points in their past four games, but the opportunities should be there to produce a solid outing for the Eagles offense.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith
Fades: Andy Dalton
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Considering how well quarterback Jalen Hurts had played for the Philadelphia Eagles this year, it feels eerily quiet regarding his status for Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. Granted, the Eagles are still in a great position to lock up the top seed in the NFC, but this lack of definitive news suggests that, once again, people are content with Gardner Minshew II starting another game for Philadelphia. That’s dangerous, in that we have seen Minshew play well in short bursts but struggle over longer periods of time. Against a solid defense like that of New Orleans, I would be a little careful before buying into Philadelphia’s offense aggressively on Sunday. The same is true for the opposite side of the matchup, where the Saints’ offense rarely delivers enough to provide excitement, even though a few players can contribute.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson, Miles Sanders, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and both defenses
Fades: All quarterbacks in this game
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am not sure what is scarier: the 6-9 Panthers having a chance to claim the lead in the NFC South this week, or the fact that I actually think they are the better team right now in this matchup against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers’ offense continues to mightily underwhelm while the Panthers offense is finally hitting its stride under Sam Darnold. Over the past four games, the Panthers offense has averaged 26.5 points per game while the Bucs have averaged 16.5 over the same period. With both defenses capable of playing great football, I am always going to lean towards the team whose offense has shown an ability to be productive. Both offenses are capable of producing fantasy points, but the Panthers are my preferred target this week.
Targets: Sam Darnold, D’Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, DJ Moore, Leonard Fournette, and Chris Godwin
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Quarterback Sam Darnold has led the Carolina Panthers back into the divisional race, and my heart swells with pride. Unfortunately, what he and the Panthers did against the Lions and their helpless defense will not work against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since the start of the year, the expectation for Tampa Bay has been to win the NFC South, and it is, once again, within reach. While the Buccaneers have failed miserably on offense, they still do boast an excellent defense and one that can shut down Carolina’s offense. The ‘contrarian’ play here might be to lean more heavily on Tampa Bay’s offense, but the danger is in running into a Panthers defense that, at times, has done well.
Targets: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, D’Onta Foreman, DJ Moore, and both defenses
Fades: None, but I am obviously going light on this game
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In what is becoming a near must-win game as the rest of the NFC breathes down their neck for the final Wild Card position, the Commanders are turning back to Carson Wentz — yikes. Taylor Heinicke is clearly not an elite quarterback by any means, but every time Washington has ever gone to him, he seems to find a way to unite this team and turn them into a better team around him. Carson Wentz hasn’t shown that same ability in years, and after a strong, but brief, start to the season, things went south hard for Wentz and this offense. The Browns defense has been an easy target for much of the season, but over their last five games, the Browns have only allowed over 17 points in one game. The downside for the Browns is that their offense is still struggling under Deshaun Watson as they have scored a total 33 points over their past three games. I think the Browns win this game, but the fantasy expectations here are quite low as a whole.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Browns Defense, and Brian Robinson Jr.
Fades: Carson Wentz
Must-Owns: None, but with Antonio Gibson now out, Brian Robinson Jr. may see enough volume this week to return value that is too good to ignore.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: On a long list of unacceptable decisions made by people in professional sports, the Washington Commanders have turned back to Carson Wentz after Taylor Heinicke rejuvenated the team when he was named the starting quarterback weeks ago. This is a mistake on numerous levels, even if Washington were able to knock off the Cleveland Browns. I’m out on everything from the Commanders’ offense, but the pivot point is in how to handle Cleveland. Will the Browns finally show some life? Will they be able to do anything against a solid Washington defense? Thankfully, even if the entire offensive group doesn’t perform for Cleveland, there are a few players still worth targeting.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, David Njoku, Browns defense, and Brian Robinson, Jr.
Fades: Carson Wentz
Must-Owns: Amari Cooper
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jaguars have somewhat of an dreamlike trio going on right now in my mind. They have been one of my favorite teams all season, they are currently one of the hottest teams in the league, and they are playing the worst team in the NFL this week, but I am hesitating still. On one hand, the Texans defeated the Jaguars back in Week 5 in a paltry 13-6 game, and on the other hand, the Jaguars have nothing to play for this week truly as the fate of the AFC South rests on the Week 18 matchup between Jacksonville and Tennessee. Despite their improved play of late, I still have a hard time expecting much from this Texans offense. I can’t fully ignore the Jaguars offense, but I will limit my exposure and possibly even dip into some second-tier players who may see increased play time during this game.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., JaMycal Hasty, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Brandin Cooks
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the most interesting storylines of Week 17 is that the Jacksonville Jaguars will be playing for the AFC South title, but this week’s game means absolutely nothing to them — next week’s contest is a head-to-head, winner-take-all showdown with the Titans. Still, it would be wise for Jacksvonille to get itself into game-ready shape by taking care of business against the Houston Texans. Houston has played well lately, and there is definitely a chance that divisional familiarity leads to another inspired performance — the Texans’ first win of the season was against the Jaguars, while Opening Day featured a tie against the Colts. Still, I can’t be too aggressive with players from the Texans, while there’s a chance that the Jaguars run away and hide with the game — in which case, using someone from Jacksonville in a lineup would be a necessity.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, Jaguars defense, and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Everyone else from Houston
Must-Owns: Travis Etienne, Jr.
San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a year where very little has gone right, the Raiders are turning their offense over to the hands of Jarrett Stidham. Stidham has not shown much in his brief NFL appearances to show he is much of a starting quarterback, so instead, this move feels more like the Raiders simply saying goodbye to Derek Carr. When the Raiders inevitably move on from Carr, I am painfully curious to see how Davante Adams reacts being that Carr is the only reason Adams went to play for the Raiders. Anyway, Stidham has his hands way beyond full in his first NFL start going against the league’s best defense, and I could not have lower expectations.
Targets: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
Fades: Raiders Offense
Must-Owns: 49ers Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In another game’s writeup, I mentioned that there is “a long list of unacceptable decisions by people in professional sports,” and this is one of them. The Las Vegas Raiders are deciding to bench quarterback Derek Carr. Considering how the Raiders brought in wide receiver Davante Adams specifically to play with Carr and that the organization is filled with issues outside of the quarterback position, this feels like the wrong move. What’s worse is that head coach Josh McDaniels has proven that he can’t be trusted with quarterback decisions after famously trading up to draft Tim Tebow and forcing him into the team’s starting quarterback role — both McDaniels and Tebow were off the team after just two seasons. I’m never one to casually expect disaster, but the Raiders’ one chance in competing with the San Francisco 49ers was through big plays led by Carr. This now sets up for a long afternoon in Las Vegas where San Francisco can score at-will against a defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed and not get any pushback on the other side of the matchup.
Targets: Brock Burdy, Christian McCaffrey — if healthy — Jordan Mason, Tyrion Davis-Price, Deebo Samuel — if healthy — Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, 49ers defense, and Davante Adams
Fades: Everyone else from Las Vegas
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Who would have thought that this Week 17 Geno Smith versus the Jets revenge game would involve two teams that are fighting to stay alive in the playoff race in their respective conference? Things have spiraled downhill for both of these teams after jumping out to strong winning records in the first half of the season, but both are still alive with an outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs. Luckily for the Jets, they are getting Mike White back this week. It feels wrong to look at him as the Jets’ savior, but there is a remarkable amount of evidence at this point proving he is their best quarterback at this time. The problem for the Seahawks is that their offense is sputtering, and hasn’t done very well against tough defenses for much of this season. Despite the return of White, and the importance of this game, I am not seeing this being a great game for fantasy purposes.
Targets: Mike White, Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In addition to the collapse of the New York Jets from their high watermark of 6-3, we have the battle of two intriguing quarterback options on Sunday. The Jets will turn back to Mike White and cause a major spike in expectations from the team’s fan base, while the Seattle Seahawks will look to get back on track with Geno Smith, the player who was formerly the starting quarterback for the Jets. This is only one of the many interesting notes, however, as we also have Jets head coach Robert Saleh playing in the NFC West where he spent his time as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator, as well as the presence of the aforementioned White compared to his actual record — he has just one win as the Jets’ starting quarterback, and it was against the now-3-12 Bears. Of course, the on-field matchup for the Jets’ offense against Seattle’s defense is excellent, but I would be careful before fully trusting White and his weapons. If we also consider the Jets’ excellent defense, the Seahawks’ offense might be capped, as well. With all this being said, I am still looking at a handful of players to carefully select from this game. I just won’t be ‘stacking’ either team.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett — if healthy — Zonovan Knight, Michael Carter, Garrett Wilson, and both defenses
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If it wouldn’t be frowned upon, I would just write a generic blurb about the Vikings, and copy and paste it every week because they do the same thing seemingly every single week. They are 12-3 on the year and have won 11 one possession games, and I cannot even begin to explain how unfathomable that is. Interestingly enough, their one win on the year that was by more than one possession came back in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers. While the Vikings are the same team every single week, the Packers are an entirely different team than what we saw at the start of the year. Their defense has been playing better of late, and the offense has now scored 24 or more points in four consecutive games and five of their last six. The Packers have turned their season around and put themselves firmly in playoff contention, but they cannot afford a loss. Maybe I am crazy, but in a January game in Green Bay, with massive playoff implications, against Kirk Cousins, I will always die with Aaron Rodgers coming out on top.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, Christian Watson (bump to Doubs and Lazard if he is out), Allen Lazard, and Romeo Doubs
Fades: Kirk Cousins
Must-Owns: Aaron Rodgers
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It has suddenly become the Game of the Week as the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers will square off to see if Green Bay’s improbable resurgence can keep its playoff hopes alive for just one more week. More importantly for those of us looking to target the teams in DFS, we have a decent matchup that has produced fireworks in the past. The Vikings still have one of the worst defenses in the league, while Minnesota’s offense has routinely had success against Green Bay’s defense — the season began with the Vikings tallying 395 yards of offense in this same matchup where wide receiver Justin Jefferson dominated to the tune of two touchdowns and 184 receiving yards. I would expect a more balanced effort from both teams — again, the Packers’ offense was sputtering at that point and has since come alive — so there are definitely players worth a look.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Christian Watson, Allen Lazard, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Rams may have absolutely annihilated the Broncos last week, but history tells us to not expect anything like that again. Despite that win, the Rams are still a massively flawed team with limited talent on both sides of the ball currently. The Chargers aren’t perfect, but they are proving they are not the same old Chargers, and as they continue to get healthier — welcome back Joey Bosa — they are going to be a potentially scary team to face in the postseason. The one thing the Chargers still don’t seem to be able to do is blow out bad teams, so I am not expecting them to score 40 points this week, but I can very easily see this being a fairly controlled and easy victory much like we saw last week against the Colts.
Targets: Cam Akers, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Chargers Defense
Fades: Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: Austin Ekeler
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’re already seeing a few games that mean nothing for at least one team, but I would expect the Los Angeles Chargers to play with intensity despite clinching a playoff berth last week. They still lack experience in the big moment, and it would be wise to focus on a big outing this week so that, if they decide to rest players the following week, they had at least one more game of solid play. With that, I’m targeting the usual suspects from the Chargers and not thinking twice about it. The Los Angeles Rams present a trickier setup, where a regression from last week’s 51-point explosion is a near-guarantee, but how far they fall is to be determined. Because I expect other DFS players to look for that same drop-off, there is probably some value in players from the Rams, as well.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Cam Akers, and Tyler Higbee
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite what has been a largely disastrous season, Mike Tomlin is once again defying the odds and leading his team to a potential winning season. They have the luxury of facing a Ravens team that is still without Lamar Jackson and struggling in his absence. With the makeup of these two teams currently, the scoring in this game is extremely capped. Over their past six games, the Ravens defense has allowed more than 14 points just one time while scoring over 17 points just one time in that same span. In the Steelers past four games, only one time has either team surpassed 20 points. With both teams playing well defensively and poorly on offense I simply cannot look at this game with any significant hopes for offense.
Targets: Najee Harris, George Pickens, Steelers Defense, JK Dobbins, and Ravens Defense
Fades: Kenny Pickett and Tyler Huntley
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Is Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson going to play? It’s the same question we have asked for weeks, and it’s the same question that is going to have an impact on everything for the game. There’s simply no way around tying our expectations to Jackson so, if he plays, we can boost the potential for the offense — and the wide receivers — and, if he doesn’t, then we have to scale back. Either way, I am still looking for running back J.K. Dobbins to continue his solid workload, but he will face a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that is allowing the fifth-fewest yards-per-carry. The divisional element of this game in Primetime likely leads to a prototypical AFC North slugfest where neither team is running up the scoreboard, but I would still expect a fair amount of points — where I will prioritize kickers over defenses in a one-game Showdown contest.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andres, and both defenses
Fades: Ravens wide receivers
Must-Owns: None, but I continue to lean toward Dobbins
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A drama-filled week 17 concludes with a battle of two of the AFC heavyweights facing off on Monday night. The Bengals are as hot as any team in the league, having won every game since a Week 8 loss and having scored at least 20 points in every one of those victories. The Bills went through a bit of a mid-season struggle but have turned things around just fine winning six straight games of their own while scoring 20 or more points in each of their last seven games and in all but two games this year. Both of these teams have strong defenses as well, but I am always a believer in betting on a good offense to beat a good defense. Given this matchup of the 6th and 4th ranked scoring offense, both of whom are a weekly lock for 20-plus points, I will be all in on offense in this battle. Both defenses have been more vulnerable against the pass this season which bodes well considering these are the two of the most pass-heavy and pass-productive offenses in the league.
Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Gabe Davis, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins
Fades: Joe Mixon
Must-Owns: Stefon Diggs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The National Football League has to be thrilled with the Monday night game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals and, as fans, we should do the same. The best part is that the read for the matchup is blatant and straightforward. Everyone is going to expect a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest, so you can either lean into it and try to find the less popular means of exposure to such output or go ‘contrarian’ and scale back from casting a wide net. Personally, I’m going with the latter as the over-under point total feels just a little too low for my liking — 50 is a big mental number and it is currently holding just below that at 49.5 in most places. Like I wrote for the Sunday Night Football game, I would be more interested in kickers than I would on a normal night.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, and both kickers — in Showdown contests
Fades: None, but I am a little hesitant to buy into Buffalo’s sudden rushing attack
Must-Owns: None