We normally don’t write about the weather, but this weekend is full of games in which low temperatures and high winds are likely to play a role. That does not mean that we should immediately fade offense, but it is always worth knowing how others may react, while also keeping expectations in-line.

Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.

Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.

Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Buffalo BIlls haven’t exactly been dominant in the second half of this season like most people would expect them to, but I will comfortably bet on them in a great matchup against the Bears. Since Week 8, The Bears have allowed at least 25 points against in every single game. That is almost unfathomable, but it is the truth, and I can’t expect their defense to suddenly wake up now. The matchup for the Bears offense isn’t great, but their offense is what it is, and you can lean on their run game week in and week given their propensity to lean on it no matter what the matchup or game script. Be sure to follow the weather forecast in this game as there is a chance of significant snow which would put a greater emphasis on the ground game for each team.

Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Justin Fields, and David Montgomery

Fades: Bears pass catchers

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The same narrative about the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears individually comes back into play for Saturday, as the Bills keep rolling offensively while the Bears only operate through the legs of quarterback Justin Fields. I have used some of his pass-catchers with him in the past, but it has often been better to lean solely on Fields in a lineup. The opposite is true for Bills quarterback Josh Allen where, even though his rushing ability helps raise his ceiling, he frequently fills up the stat-sheet for his wide receivers. There is expected to be a decent amount of wind, but I can’t justify avoiding Buffalo’s offensive players.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and David Montgomery

Fades: Bears pass-catchers

Must-Owns: None

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This season has not gone how either of these teams would have liked, but that is the nature of the NFL. The Saints are still hanging on in the NFC South race somehow, but they will be playing short handed this week with no Mark Ingram, Chris Olave, or Jarvis Landry. Their absences should lead to a ton of volume for the few key remaining pieces in this offense, primarily Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed who continues making big plays. Last week seemed like an improvement for Deshaun Watson, but the Browns offense still managed just 13 points in what has been a rough return to football for Watson thus far. In what is nearly a lost season, I expect the Browns to continue leaning on Watson as they try to help him regain the form he showed during his time in Houston. I don’t love his chances of turning it around this week, but the volume may be enough for some of his receivers to return value.

Targets: Alvin Kamara, Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku

Fades: None

Must-Owns: Rashid Shaheed

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Cleveland Browns put together a 13-point outing in poor weather against the Steelers, and I’m not sure they will fare much better against the New Orleans Saints on Saturday. Like so many other games, weather is expected to play a factor and, with how out-of-sync quarterback Deshaun Watson has been since taking over as the team’s starter, I can’t ask Cleveland’s offense to do much outside of the running backs and wide receiver Amari Cooper — in moderation. I also can’t ask the Saints’ offense to explode, but the matchup is in their favor.

Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, Andy Dalton, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, and Saints defense

Fades: Deshaun Watson

Must-Owns: None

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You have to give credit to Houston for how they have battled the past two weeks against far superior opponents. While it has been somewhat impressive, their offense is still simply not worth targeting in my opinion. They are splitting snaps at quarterback, and they are riddled with injuries across their skill position players. It is not impossible that a low salary Texans player has some value, but it is not worth chasing it on the worst team in the league. The Titans are severely limping into the end of the season, and they are suddenly at great risk of losing their division lead to the streaking Jaguars. Things aren’t going to get much easier without Ryan Tannehill as they are now forced to turn to Malik Willis who has shown no ability to move the ball through the air in his few games this year. Expect Willis and Derrick Henry to be busy in this game running the ball as the Titans are desperate for a win this week. 

Targets: Derrick Henry and TItans Defense

Fades: All other players in this game

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Tennessee Titans Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will miss Saturday’s game against the Houston Texans, but I’m not so sure it matters. The Titans want to feed the ball to running back Derrick Henry and there’s no reason why they would deviate from that gameplay. Houston ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed and is regularly pummeled by running backs. The Texans might find some success through the air — where Tennessee ranks last in passing yards allowed — but there is little reason to think that Houston thrives in any way.

Targets: Malik Willis, Chris Moore, and Titans defense

Fades: Everyone else from Houston

Must-Owns: Derrick Henry

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Kansas City survived a scare last week against Houston, but I will keep the faith as always. The last time the Chiefs played a bad game against a weak opponent was back in Week 3 when they lost to the Colts (another AFC South opponent). Following that game, they came out the following week and walloped a good Buccaneers defense scoring 41 points in a dominant victory. I am fully expecting a similar type of rebound performance this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has had far more success this year than just about anyone would have expected, but their shine seems to be fading. Their defense has talent, but their stats show a group that is largely struggling and isn’t likely to be able to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Their offense has been good, but they are without Tyler Lockett this week, and have multiple other key members questionable for this game. The Chiefs should win comfortably and force Seattle into a pass heavy game script. 

Targets: Geno Smith, Noah Fant, Patrick Mahomes, Jerrick McKinnon, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce

Fades: None

Must-Owns: DK Metcalf

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Now that everyone has moved off of the Seattle Seahawks’ bandwagon, I find them even more attractive. Of course, some of this has to do with a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs where, in order to win, a team has to bring its best offense to the field. Kansas City should have no problem scoring against a Seattle defense that sits near the bottom of almost every statistical category, but as we see throughout this column, the weather might not be conducive for a high-octane day. The ‘contrarian’ play is to fade Kansas City or buy into Seattle, but it’s unlikely that the answer is ‘both.’ If the Seahawks score, so will the Chiefs. If Kansas City stalls, Seattle probably does, too.

Targets: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Patrick Mahomes, Jerick McKinnon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: None, but I can see myself using Metcalf in a lot of lineups

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this point in the year, I am officially out of things to say about the Vikings. I have never seen a team with a more unsustainable series of victories or a team that can be so embarrassingly bad and amazing at the same time. Their offense is just about always going to have ugly moments in a game, but they have as talented of a group of skill position players as any team in the league and there is no reason to think they won’t turn in another good game this week. With all of that said, smart money would be betting on this game being close, and all the Vikings do is play one score games. With that in mind, I have to expect the Giants offense to have a good game as well, which doesn’t seem that far fetched given the vast struggles we have seen from the Vikings defense all season long. As with just about every other game of the year, a game with the Vikings is going to be worth heavily investing in for fantasy football. 

Targets: Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Darius Slayton, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson 

Fades: Both Defenses

Must-Owns: None, but Justin Jefferson feels close as he is approaching historical receiving numbers that his teammates may help push for him to achieve

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For starters, the Minnesota Vikings playing at home in a dome on a day in which almost every other game is impacted by weather is going to make them extremely popular. If we add in what they did in the second-half of this historic comeback against the Colts last week, we can make an argument that ‘stacking’ the Vikings is the clear-and-obvious play. Maybe, but I like to be ‘contrarian,’ and there is definitely a path for the New York Giants’ defense to limit Minnesota’s upside. The Giants actually sit in the middle-of-the-pack for points allowed, but they bleed yards at a ridiculous rate. Between that and the Vikings’ terrible defense — last in the league in yards allowed — it’s almost a necessity to take at least one offensive player from this game. My personal preference is to split my options over the two teams and probably take one target from each.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Saquon Barkley, Darius Slayton, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and T.J. Hockenson

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: None

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Seemingly every year, we see the New England Patriots overachieve largely due to the exceptional situation football and never making stupid mistakes. This season, it is inexplicable mistakes and poor situation football that is costing them games, and they are likely going to miss the playoffs because of mistakes we have seen all year with no more glaring than the disastrous lateral from last week. Normally, I would be happy to bet on a team rallying around that type of error, but the Patriots are making it hard to believe in them. In what has been an emotional and rocky season, that may just be the play that breaks them. Needing to face a Bengals team that has won all but one game since Week 6 is hardly a great setup for a rebound showing. I want to have faith, but I simply can’t do it right now with this Patriots team.

Targets: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Bengals Defense, and Rhamondre Stevenson

Fades: Mac Jones

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I was selling the Cincinnati Bengals last week in a difficult matchup against an excellent Buccaneers defense, but they still managed to put 34 points on the scoreboard. There is a catch, though. Cincinnati caused four turnovers, all in Tampa Bay territory, and turned three of them into touchdowns via the short field. Even with four passing touchdowns, quarterback Joe Burrow only reached 200 yards through the air. I will definitely give him credit for his efficiency and for winning the game, but it’s dangerous to look at the Bengals’ output and determine that they were cruising on offense. The New England Patriots are basically never “cruising on offense,” but they have scored at least 24 points in three-of-their-last-four games.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Rhamondre Stevenson — if healthy — Damien Harris — if healthy — Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Henry, Joe Mixon, and Samaje Perine

Fades: Ja’Marr Chase — for his high salary in this particular matchup

Must-Owns: None

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Among all of the chaos of this football season, the Detroit Lions are thriving. Winners of six of their last seven games, the Lions are in great shape to claim a playoff spot given their remaining schedule. The stretch run begins with a very winnable game against a Panthers team that is also — somehow — in control of their own playoff destiny despite winning only five games on the season. Last week was a great test for the Lions offense against a tough Jets defense, and while their numbers looked decent, they were also aided by some poor play by the Jets offense. If the Panthers offense is capable of having a good game against an improving, but still vulnerable, LIons defense, they could stand a chance to control this game with their own strong defense. Big games have a tendency to bring out big moments, and there are definitely players on both of these capable of providing big moments as they try to inch closer towards stealing a spot in the playoffs.

Targets: Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam Darnold, D’Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, and DJ Moore

Fades: Lions Defense

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’re about to see if the Carolina Panthers were outperforming and ready to crumble or if they have really found a sustainable offense behind quarterback Sam Darnold. The matchup with the Detroit Lions’ defense is basically ideal — especially after playing against the Steelers — and I am willing to buy back into the Panthers for Saturday. There is some concern with cold weather in Carolina, but that might impact the Lions and quarterback Jared Goff just as much as Darnold and his position players. If that happens, there might be a disappointment in terms of fantasy production, so I would be careful before trusting either side too aggressively.

Targets: Sam Darnold, D’Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown

Fades: Jared Goff

Must-Owns: None

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been higher on both of these teams than most football fans, but with Marcus Mariota and Lamar Jackson still out, I am finding it hard to be excited for this game. Desmond Ridder had some obvious struggles last week that slowed down the Falcons offense. Luckily for the Falcons, their running game was successful enough to keep that game close, but an offense that is that dependent on the ground game is always hard to trust for fantasy football purposes. That is especially true against a Ravens defense that is allowing just 85.6 yards per game on the ground. The Ravens offense is hardly giving me confidence under Tyler Huntley as they have scored just 29 points over their last three games. The matchup is very good against a Falcons defense that has struggled all year, but it is best to limit expectations for this game as a whole.

Targets: Cordarrelle Patterson, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards

Fades: Desmond Ridder

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Once again, the Baltimore Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson — and turn to Tyler Hudley — while the Atlanta Falcons will lean on Desmond Ridder. The rookie’s first start was anything-but-sharp, although there was some progress toward the end of the contest. Overall, the expected poor quarterback play is likely going to turn many away from the matchup, but Huntley and Ridder have rushing ability where they can sneak into a good DFS score. That is likely to be the most popular approach to the game, however, so targeting a pass-catcher might be the right ‘contrarian’ play.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Mark Andrews

Fades: Everyone else

Must-Owns: J.K. Dobbins

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Washington hardly played their best game last week, but they also fell victim to some highly questionable officiating in the waning moments of their critical NFC East battle. It would be easy to write them off after last week when you look at the matchup against a 49ers team that has pretty much been in cruise control for the entire second half of the season. Washington is desperate for a victory as they look to keep control of their playoff lives, and they are the perfect team to derail the 49ers at least temporarily. Washington is capable of playing a strong defensive game, and running the ball effectively to control the clock as well. After seeing what they did against the then undefeated Eagles, I am willing to have some degree of confidence in the Commanders having a good game this week. If they are to pull this off, it essentially wipes away any fantasy football excitement I may be able to muster. I am looking for a run-heavy, defensive battle in this one. 

Targets: Brian Robinson Jr., Antonio Gibson, and Christian McCaffrey

Fades: Brock Purdy

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I can’t believe how I keep hearing about the Washington Commanders possibly going back to Carson Wentz and, while I don’t want to accept that the rumors have any truth, it does mean that I can’t fully trust Taylor Heinicke to stay in the game from start-to-finish. The irony is that I do believe in Washington’s ability to compete against the San Francisco 49ers, but that would have to happen through the running game and defense. The same is true from the other side of the contest, however, as the 49ers are treading into dangerous territory with rookie Brock Purdy. He has played well, but there is a potential collapse looming.

Targets: Christian McCaffrey, Brian Robinson, Jr., Antonio Gibson, and both defenses

Fades: Brock Purdy

Must-Owns: None

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The luster of this NFC clash may be lessening due to news of Jalen Hurts being out, but with or without Hurts, this game has significant implications as the Eagles look to secure the top spot in the NFC. Gardner Minshew is hardly a superstar quarterback, but he is also one of the better fall back options around the league, so I am not expecting the Eagles offense to suddenly be inept. It will be interesting to see how the game plan changes for the Eagles without Hurts’ running ability, but that may open more opportunities for other players, especially in the redzone. There has been a ton of talk surrounding Dak Prescott this week and his recent turnover struggles, and while that is always important in evaluating real football, Prescott’s turnovers are hardly hurting the Cowboys fantasy football output. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in every single game since Week 8 which is an incredibly impressive run. The Eagles defense is good, but they have allowed 20 or more points in three of their last four games. When you look at the competition of those games against the Packers, Titans, Giants, and Bears, the Cowboys offense is clearly the best of that bunch, so I don’t see a reason to shy away from the Cowboys offense this week.

Targets: Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, and CeeDee Lamb

Fades: Both Defenses 

Must-Owns: Dak Prescott

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Jalen Hurts has been ruled ‘out’ for Saturday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys, and it means that Gardner Minshew II will lead the 13-1 Philadelphia Eagles in a spotlight game. Minshew is generally a fan favorite, and he has had some nice DFS outings in the past, but this is a difficult position for him. The Cowboys’ defense thrives on turnovers and pressure, and they might single-handedly take over the contest. I am lowering my expectations for Eagles’ offensive players, although Philadelphia’s defense might also be the key to a big game. Dallas’ quarterback, Dak Prescott, has been turning the ball over to a frightening degree lately, but his career path says that is unlikely to continue. Still, Dallas might lean more on its running game to avoid the Eagles’ pass defense.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and both defenses — which is obviously a risk given how much offensive talent I am targeting

Fades: None

Must-Owns: None

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is rare that we see a team completely gifted a victory in the NFL, but you can’t help but feel that way about the Raiders victory last week. Between the suspect touchdown call to tie the game, and then the inexcusable lateral fiasco, the Raiders absolutely stole an undeserved win. With that said, they enter this week at 6-8 with a good chance to win another game and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Steelers defense is not the imposing force we once knew, and their offense is one of the least productive across the entire league. In a battle of mediocrity, I am almost always going to give the edge to the team with the better star players as they are the ones likely to make game changing plays even when the team isn’t playing well. Josh Jacobs and Devante Adams are by far the two top players between these offenses right now, so I have to expect them to lead the way in this matchup. 

Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and George Pickens

Fades: Kenny Pickett

Must-Owns: Davante Adams

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Kenny Pickett is expected to be back under center for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but this game has all the makings of low-scoring. The temperatures are expected to be frigid and the Las Vegas Raiders are probably at a bit of a disadvantage heading into these elements. Then again, if quarterback Derek Carr can continue feeding wide receiver Davante Adams with passes, it may not matter. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see defenses and running backs stealing the show on Saturday night.

Targets: Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and both defenses

Fades: Derek Carr

Must-Owns: Najee Harris

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I talked last week about the growth of the Packers offense, and while they weren’t exceptional, they simply didn’t need to be against the Baker Mayfield led Rams. It is worth noting that after an extremely rocky first half, the Packers offense has been playing pretty well of late, and they have scored 24 or more points in three of their last four games. With their offense operating at nearly 100% in terms of healthy players for the first time all season, I love their chances of keeping their momentum going forward. The matchup against the Dolphins is favorable as well as they rank 23rd in yards allowed per game and 26th in points against per game. Given the explosiveness of the skill position players on Miami, the upside of the Packers offense, and the expected lovely conditions in Miami — which ideal weather is not always easy to come by in the NFL in late December — this game has great potential to turn into a track meet of sorts, so I will be loading up on offensive players for this one for the Sunday small slate.

Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Romeo Doubs, Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle

Fades: Both Defenses

Must-Owns: Christian Watson

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins have opposite records, but both teams head into Sunday afternoon’s game trending in different directions. It simply might be too late for either one to reverse course completely, but there is definitely a sense that Green Bay is making one final push before the end of the year. If that were to happen, it would likely be through the same few playmakers that have been featured for the past month or so. Miami has almost exclusively leaned on big-play, home run hitters, and that shouldn’t change. Green Bay is allowing the third-most yards-per-carry, so someone like running back Raheem Mostert might actually be the better play than one of the wide receivers — although I would not consider ‘fading’ either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Aaron Jones — who becomes a ‘must-start’ if AJ Dillon is injury — AJ Dillon — if healthy — Christian Watson, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: None

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I went into last week with little to no expectations for Baker Mayfield and the Rams, and wound up being very right on that one. After his incredible game-winning drive in his Rams debut, Mayfield struggled mightily against the Packers defense last week, and is not set to take on one of the very best defenses in the entire league this week. Once again, I can’t expect anything from this Rams team in even worse circumstances than last week. Russell Wilson will be back on the field this week, and while this Broncos offense has been terrible for basically the whole year, their defense may create enough opportunities this week that the offense may just stumble into some points. I won’t be going crazy with Broncos players, but the game sets up extremely well for them to have decent production. 

Targets: Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton (if healthy), and Greg Dulcich

Fades: Rams Offense 

Must-Owns: Broncos Defense

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Denver Broncos will see the return of quarterback Russell Wilson but, after the offense finished last week with its highest yardage total since the end of October, there might be some quiet rumblings that this isn’t for the best. I disagree, but I also can’t ignore how badly Denver’s offense has been all year. The reality is that it fairly performed well because it ran the ball well — a season-high 168 rushing yards. The Los Angeles Rams had been solid against the run, but have now allowed at least 115 rushing yards in three-of-their-last-four games. They also have done absolutely nothing on offense, so the little DFS value from this matchup is somewhat capped.

Targets: Russell Wilson, Latavius Murray, Jerry Jeudy, Cam Akers, Tyler Higbee, and both defenses

Fades: All other offensive players

Must-Owns: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At the beginning of last week, the Buccaneers looked like their old selves, but after building an early lead, they reverted back to the 2022 model where seemingly everything is a struggle. They went on to lose yet another game, and now find themselves narrowly hanging on to the NFC South division over every other division opponent. The one thing that Buccaneers have going for them is this matchup against a Cardinals team that is in even worse shape than they are. This game is likely to be a sloppy all around game, but between the Buccaneers pass-heavy offense and the limited players getting touches on the Cardinals, there is some reason to think we could still see moderate fantasy production. Over the course of the whole weekend, this game shouldn’t be at the forefront of your fantasy plans, but on the Sunday slate, this game warrants some consideration while many people likely gloss over it. 

Targets: Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, James Conner, and DeAndre Hopkins 

Fades: Tom Brady

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I wrote about it in the Bengals’ blurb, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suddenly turned the ball over four times in their own territory last week and then had no chance to recover. They were also pressured by an opposing offense that could score. The Arizona Cardinals don’t have that, and I would look for Tampa Bay to play a game more suited for its preferred style: stout defense. That’s the main trend found in the Buccaneers’ victories this year, and it does make me shy away from their offense. I will still use some of their key players in my lineups, but I don’t expect an offensive explosion from Tampa Bay.

Targets: Everyone from Tampa Bay and DeAndre Hopkins

Fades: Everyone from Arizona who is not DeAndre Hopkins

Must-Owns: Buccaneers defense

Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Indianapolis Colts are turning over this disastrous season to the hands of Nick Foles. Everything about this feels like the prototypical Chargers collapse that we have come to expect from them. Things are finally moving in the Chargers’ favor, and they are nearly locked into a playoff spot, so wouldn’t it be perfectly fitting for them to lose to one of the worst teams in the league who is turning over to their third string quarterback? It is taking everything in my being to fight that urge, but I am fully bought in at this point, and simply cannot accept any result here where Nick Foles outscores Justin Herbert. Herbert and his healthy offense should be given plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. I will happily go down with counting on Herbert to continue winning games especially against inferior opponents. 

Targets: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Chargers Defense, and Michael Pittman Jr. 

Fades: Nick Foles 

Must-Owns: Austin Ekeler

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Indianapolis Colts are the joke of the league after last week’s historic loss, and that’s exactly why I would expect a better outcome from them on Monday night. Granted, the absence of running back Jonathan Taylor takes away a huge opportunity to play against a poor run defense in the Los Angeles Chargers, but that only means that some of the backups can step up and deliver for reasonable salaries. That, and we will see the return of quarterback Nick Foles to the National Football League, and that, alone, will gain attention. I also expect Indianapolis’ defense to clean itself up after falling apart last week and, with the Chargers failing to score more than 27 points since Week 5, I’m not so sure Los Angeles’ offense breaks out on Monday.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Deon Jackson, Zack Moss, Michael Pittman, Jr., Colts defense, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams

Fades: None

Must-Owns: None