While every team is in play for Week 15, we already had Thursday Night Football feature a pair of teams, and there are three games on Saturday. The schedule is still loaded, however, as we are past the point of the season where any team will be on a bye.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 15 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There really isn’t a whole lot to say about this game from a fantasy perspective. Unless you are looking to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian, you should feel good about loading up on Eagles players once again. During the Bears current six-game losing streak, they have allowed 27 or more points in every single game. Given that the Eagles have the league’s highest scoring offense, it is hard to envision an outcome where they do not overpower this Bears team. The Eagles run defense can still be exploited, so that provides some optimism for the Bears offense which relies heavily on their ground game, but it won’t be enough to make this game competitive.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Justin Fields, and David Montgomery
Fades: Bears pass catchers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There appears to be no stopping the Philadelphia Eagles, and I can no longer write that their offense has been capped. It has now eclipsed 435 yards in three consecutive weeks, and the team has scored a combined 123 points over that span. A matchup with the Chicago Bears appears to be perfect — Chicago has allowed the fourth-most points in the league — but there is a chance of positive correction for the Bears, as they rank 19th in yards allowed. Really, I am more interested in taking a chance with Chicago’s offense. Even though I have argued against them in the past, the Bears are likely overlooked in a packed schedule and a tough matchup. Coming off a bye week, I would expect Chicago to have designed a few more plays around its strengths, so I can justify buying back into the team on Sunday.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Cole Kmet
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels hard to imagine, but a Week 15 battle of teams with a combined nine victories has massive playoff ramifications. The NFC South is a disaster, and with the Buccaneers struggling (and facing a red-hot Bengals team), whoever wins this game is thoroughly in the mix for the division crown. Desmond Ridder is set to make his NFL debut, and while he looked good in the preseason, I am extremely skeptical of the rookie this week. The Saints defense has been playing well after an extremely rocky seven game stretch to start the year. Asking Ridder to step into a huge game for his first start with extremely limited weapons is a tall task. The Falcons offense has had a low ceiling all season, and while Ridder may raise that ceiling a bit, he also lowers their floor. Despite all their struggles this year, I am riding with the Saints this week.
Targets: Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London, Andy Dalton, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Saints Defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The main storyline for the division matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints is the first career game for Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder. Obviously, anything we expect — or don’t expect — is based on conjecture, but we do know that Ridder has rushing ability and the Falcons have done well offensively with that style — Atlanta had plenty of decent offensive games using Marcus Mariota’s rushing ability at the quarterback position. Still, the Saints’ defense is starting to round into form and I would temper my expectations for a rookie in that situation. New Orleans’ offense hasn’t been potent in terms of reaching the end zone, but it sits in the middle of the pack for yards. There’s some potential there, but not much.
Targets: Desmond Ridder, Cordarrelle Patterson, Andy Dalton, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Saints Defense
Fades: Falcons pass-catchers
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In yet another installment of “how does this game have true playoff seeding significance” we bring to you the Lions and the Jets. The Lions have won five of their last six games and have a real chance of sneaking into the playoffs given the unreliability of the teams currently ahead of them in the standings. Despite losing two in a row, I like the Jets to control this game. The Lions defense remains a colossal liability, and while their offense has been great pretty much all season, we have seen them struggle against some of the better defenses they have faced. The Jets defense may just be the toughest matchup they have had all year as they rank 3rd in total yards and 6th in scoring while being the fourth and fifth toughest pass and rush defenses respectively in terms of efficiency. I think the Jets defense will slow Detroit down enough to let the Jets offense to continue playing solidly and eek closer to a playoff spot.
Targets: D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Zonovan Knight
Fades: Jared Goff
Must-Owns: Garrett Wilson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The same storyline that has circled around the New York Jets for weeks comes back into play for Sunday. That is, which quarterback will start? Really, we can also ask, “Which quarterback will finish the game?” Mike White was set to do both — and a matchup against a putrid Detroit Lions defense gives him a higher-than-normal ceiling — but the recent injuries have forced the Jets’ hand. They will be turning back to Zach Wilson, who does have some upside because of the matchup. On the other side of the ball, it’s been hard to ignore the Lions’ offense in nearly every game, but it was shutout in the past against the Patriots’ excellent defense. It’s possible that happens again, so I would be careful before using players from Detroit too aggressively.
Targets: D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zach Wilson, Zonavan Knight, Garrett Wilson, and Jets defense
Fades: Jared Goff
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Let’s take a second to recap some of the fun facts of the Panthers season: they have had three different quarterbacks make multiple starts, they traded away their best player in Christian McCaffrey, traded away their number two wide receiver in Robbie Anderson, and they fired their Head Coach after five games. Despite all of that, the Panthers have won two games in a row and three of their last four, and they are still alive in the NFC South thanks to the overall struggles within the division. Sam Darnold is clearly their best option at quarterback, and he seems to have brought a bit of stability to this team after all of their early season drama. Given how well the Panthers defense is playing as well, I fully expect them to be able to control what has been one of the most ineffective offenses in the league and somehow win yet another football game.
Targets: George Pickens, Sam Darnold, D’Onta Foreman, DJ Moore, and Panthers Defense
Fades: Whoever winds up playing quarterback for the Steelers
Must-Owns: None, but DJ Moore feels very close
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Because of how much I write about my fandom of him, I need to take a moment and praise quarterback Sam Darnold for leading the Carolina Panthers to back-to-back wins. Unfortunately, I also need to be fair to his numbers. Darnold hasn’t even reached a combined 300 yards passing over the last two games, and only the rushing attack is thriving in terms of DFS purposes. That might happen again, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are built to win games using defense, and that will likely be on full display on Sunday. I also can’t justify using more than one player from Pittsburgh in a lineup, and only because of their high ceiling.
Targets: D’Onta Foreman, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and both defenses
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Houston Texans put quite the scare on the Cowboys last week, and that is making this game much harder to predict than it would have otherwise seemed. Was last week simply a bad game from a team who overlooked an opponent, or was it a wake up call that the Cowboys simply are not as dominant as we thought? This week will help shed some light on that as they face off with a pesky Jaguars team that has been a tough opponent all season and is currently fighting for their lives to keep pace in the AFC South race. The Jaguars have allowed at least 20 points in eight consecutive games which gives me all the confidence I need to continue trusting the same few Cowboys offensive players that have seemingly produced every week lately. Trevor Lawrence continues to play well, and while this matchup is not great by any means, last week proved that this defense is not impossible to break through. I won’t be as high as I normally am on the Jaguars’ offense, but I also can’t back off completely as Lawrence and his playmakers continue to flash upside that is worth chasing when others likely back off.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram
Fades: Cowboys Defense
Must-Owns: Tony Pollard
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Once again, we are left wondering if the Jacksonville Jaguars are really making strides forward or if they were simply taking advantage of a positive setup. Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys should help answer this a little more clearly than we have seen in a long time, but the Cowboys might help the Jaguars in their path to a victory. Dallas has been turning the ball over at a concerning rate — six over the last three games. The good news for the Cowboys is that they have also created more turnovers than any other team in the league. This means that both teams may move the ball, but touchdowns might be limited.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, and Travis Etienne, Jr.
Fades: None, but I’m not using too many players from this game
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have to give Houston credit for their efforts last week as I did not give them a chance of competing against Dallas. While maybe that should serve as some sort of warning, I can’t help but dismiss them again this week. They have shown us time and time again why they are the worst team in the league by far, and if last week did anything, it showed the Chiefs they shouldn’t completely overlook them. I have had faith in the Chiefs essentially every single week of the season, and given how well that has gone, I am not going to jump ship against the Texans. I expect to see this game be all but over by half time, and that is only aided by the expected absence of Dameon Pierce who has been the lone bright spot for Houston all season.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Jerrick McKinnon, Juju Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, and Dare Ogunbowale
Fades: Davis Mills
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I know that I always write about teams showing some ability to compete in a game, but it’s hard to ask the Houston Texans to have an encore as impressive as the main event. They took the Cowboys to the end of their last game and gave quite a scare throughout, but the Kansas City Chiefs will be ready and waiting for a similar attack. Even when the Chiefs aren’t exploding, they are still moving the ball well and putting up points. That won’t change on Sunday. I did find value in using someone like Chris Moore from the Texans last week because of the injuries around him, so I would do the same if there is, again, a funneling of touches to a specific player.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Derrick McKinnon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, Dare Ogunbowale, and Chris Moore
Fades: Everyone else from Houston
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Coming into the season, this Week 15 matchup would’ve been considered an exciting game, but that simply is not the reality at this time. Both of these teams have vastly underperformed preseason expectations, and injuries have eliminated some of the top players on each side. The Cardinals will be without Kyler Murray, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz while the Broncos are still without Javonte Williams, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler while Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton, and Marquise Brown are questionable to play. Barring news on Russell Wilson, I am operating under the impression that we are going to be seeing Colt McCoy battle this one out with Brett Rypien. Add in the elite defense of the Broncos and I just don’t see how I can get excited about a single player in this game. Maybe I will sprinkle in a player here or there based on the limited competition for touches, but my expectations are almost zero across the board here.
Targets: James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals Defense, Jerry Jeudy, and Broncos Defense
Fades: Colt McCoy
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We know that the Arizona Cardinals will be without quarterback Kyler Murray for the remainder of the season and we assume that the Denver Broncos will be without quarterback Russell Wilson on Sunday, but does it really matter? Despite my unwavering support for Wilson, he has led a truly pathetic offense all year. Neither he nor Brett Rypien should provide too much excitement, even though Arizona’s defense is quite bad. The real key is Denver’s excellent defense against Cardinals backup-turned-starting-quarterback Colt McCoy. McCoy has enough experience — even this year — to deserve some confidence, but this is a tall task. It’s hard to ask anything of either offense in this game.
Targets: James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else on both offenses
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There may be no team in the league that has experienced more of a roller coaster type of season than the Patriots and Raiders as both of these teams have gone through numerous highs and numerous lows to find themselves on or near the playoff bubble. Normally, I try to look at a game as a series of matchups and use stats to figure out which team should have an edge, but stats mean nothing to me in this game. The only matchup that I care about in this game is Bill Belichick against Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has largely proven himself to be overwhelmed as a Head Coach, and there is nobody in the world that knows him better than Belichick. Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs are good enough (and used enough) to make some plays and be worthy of some fantasy consideration, but I fully expect Belichick and the Patriots defense to be ready for everything McDaniels and the Raiders have prepared this week as the Patriots win convincingly.
Targets: Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson (if healthy, otherwise change to Damien Harris), Tyquan Thornton, Hunter Henry, Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams
Fades: Derek Carr
Must-Owns: Patriots Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We are now so deep into the season that it’s quite clear what we should expect from both the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots individually. The Raiders will move the ball relatively well and lean on a few of their top playmakers. The Patriots will spread the ball around, run as often as they can, and play solid defense. Obviously, when we put these two approaches together, they can’t easily coexist. Therefore, anyone expecting a Patriots win should lower their expectations for the Raiders’ offense, while picking a Raiders win would likely provide a nice leverage play for some of the names that will see lower popularity in this matchup.
Targets: Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson — if healthy — Damien Harris — if healthy and especially if Stevenson is out — Tyquan Thornton, Hunter Henry, Patriots defense, Josh Jacobs, and Davante Adams — although it is hard to take the risk with him at his high price tag in this matchup
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Justin Herbert continues to make me a bigger and bigger fan, and with the Chargers offense finally getting healthy, they are not going to be an easy out in any given matchup. That is especially true against a Titans team that struggles mightily to slow down the passing game of their opposition ranking 25th in net yards per attempt and 31st in yards per game through the air. Herbert should be able to continue leaning heavily on his big three of Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams — all of whom surpassed 20 fantasy points last week in what felt like their first full game together all year. The Titans have been sliding hard of late as they have now lost three consecutive games. They have struggled on both sides of the ball, but they have one hope in this game, and as you’d expect, it is Derrick Henry. Henry had a key turnover last week, but he also had an extremely effective game on the ground until the game script turned against him. The Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league, so for as long as the game allows it, expect the Titans to lean on their star running back as much as possible
Targets: Derrick Henry, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams
Fades: Robert Woods
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Unlike the matchup above between the Raiders and Patriots where it’s likely that only one side can thrive, the game between the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers has one team’s strength against another team’s weakness. The Titans want to run the ball and do so successfully, while the Chargers simply cannot stop the run. The other side of the matchup is just-as-enticing. Tennessee’s pass defense is weak, and Los Angeles loves to throw the ball, so we could see a nice, offensive-laden game from both sides where they lean on their respective preferences.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Robert Woods
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this stage of the season, with so many weeks of supporting evidence, I am having a hard time putting much faith in the Buccaneers offense. As I continue to say, fantasy production is being somewhat maintained (at least in terms of a players’ floor) due to the insanely high pass volume of their offense. To put things in perspective, in last week’s game, six different players on the Buccaneers’ offense received five or more targets. You may think that is an anomaly given the blowout nature of that game, but that was the fifth game this season Tom Brady has thrown over 50 pass attempts, and Brady has just two games all year of fewer than 30 attempts and only three of fewer than 40 attempts. With all of that said, the Bengals are another pass-happy offense, but the production is wildly different. The Bengals rank 7th in net yards per pass attempt, 5th in total yards and 6th in scoring. In those same metrics, the Buccaneers rank 21st, 18th, and 28th.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: Ja’Marr Chase
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I was not surprised in the least that, after pulling off a nearly-impossible comeback, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense was completely nonexistent against the league’s best defense. Now, the expectations have plummeted, and I’m ready to buy back into Tampa Bay. Carefully. I won’t go overboard as the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense ranks in the top-half of the league for points and yards allowed, but there is certainly a positive correction coming for Tampa Bay, and it should be in the form of, at least, moving the ball. The Buccaneers’ defense has been consistent, though, and that lowers the ceiling for the Bengals’ offense. Obviously, the top superstars will still be in position to shine, but there’s a path to them failing.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins — if healthy — Tom Brady, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Buccaneers defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Just two weeks removed from a painful tie, the Giants and Commanders are set to do battle once again as both teams fight to remain in control of their playoff destiny. Despite the last matchup providing some decent fantasy performances, I feel the exact same way about this game as I did two weeks ago when these division rivals faced off. I could repeat a lot of what I wrote, but the gist is that both of these offenses are extremely limited in terms of their overall production. There are the 20th and 25th ranked scoring offenses, and they have combined for just one game of scoring over 30 points. There are limited enough players to choose between which helps on a two-game, primetime slate, but the expectations should be kept in check for this game despite the significance of the game.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Darius Slayton, Brian Robinson Jr., Antonio Gibson, and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Taylor Heinicke
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Giants and Washington Commanders met just two weeks ago, and the game unfolded basically as planned. Both teams scored, but neither exploded. With such a close proximity in time from the last matchup, why would Sunday Night Football’s rematch go any differently? The Giants have regressed hard after a hot start, so there’s an opportunity for the offense to gain a boost, but I can also make the argument that, if Washington pulls away, the offense might keep scoring in an effort to fully bury New York in the playoff race — not officially, but it would do severe damage to the team.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida — if being ‘contrarian’ — Darius Slayton, Taylor Heinicke, Brian Robinson, Jr., Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and both defenses
Fades: None, but I wouldn’t go too overboard with offense unless I wanted to take the ‘contrarian’ route on the two-game Primetime slate
Must-Owns: None, but Terry McLaurin is close
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is almost nothing that we have seen through 14 weeks of this season to give me any confidence in the Packers, but I am going to say they win this game extremely comfortably for a variety of reasons. Baker Mayfield led an extremely impressive game winning drive in his unlikely Rams debut, but that drive overshadowed the bigger picture which is that the Rams offense is a mess. A week of practice likely does Mayfield some good, but he has proven to be a mediocre at best starting quarterback, and he is playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines and with one of the league’s worst compilation of skill position players. On the other side of this game, a bye week likely allowed Aaron Rodgers to let his thumb heal more than he has all season which should bode well for the Packers offense. The other key for Green Bay is getting Romeo Doubs back in the mix to go along with the red-hot Christian Watson. If Aaron Jones is healthy enough to play in this game, this should be the best version of the Packers offense we have seen all year. Sitting at 5-8, things don’t look good, but given that there are two playoff spots up for grabs, and the teams ahead of them are the Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, and Lions, I am not ruling Green Bay completely out just yet.
Targets: Cam Akers, Van Jefferson Jr., Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones (if healthy otherwise A.J Dillon is an easy play), Christian Watson, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and Packers Defense
Fades: Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Believe-it-or-not, the Green Bay Packers are clinging to some semblance of life in the NFC playoff picture, but they will have to take advantage of a completely depleted Los Angeles Rams squad. The Rams showed impressive fight toward the end of their last game and pulled off the outright ‘upset’ via an incredible comeback in the last few minutes. It’s possible that happens again, but I’m not ignoring players from Green Bay on a nationally-televised home game where we can make a Showdown lineup. I’m ‘all-in’ on the Packers’ players in a one-game Showdown or two-game Primetime format.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones — if healthy — AJ Dillon — who becomes a ‘must-play’ if Jones is out — Christian Watson, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, Packers defense, Cam Akers, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee
Fades: Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: None, but I will be using a lot of players from the Packers in my lineup