We have entered the final week of the season with teams on a bye, and there are no shortage of squads out-of-action. That leads to another relatively light week of games on the main schedule but, as always, plenty of action.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 14 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is still somewhat difficult to believe, but this Jets and Bills matchup carries tremendous weight in the division standings as we approach playoff time. While the playoff implications are significant, the fantasy excitement, for me, is not. The Jets defense is 6th in the league in scoring while The Bills defense ranks 4th. Any battle of two top defenses is never going to be a game that we recommend targeting heavily. Mike White has clearly increased the ceiling of the Jets offense, but this matchup is a good time to temper our expectations. There are a few players in this game who can be valuable on sheer volume, but this game is not high on my radar.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Bills Defense, and Garrett Wilson
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The ‘contrarian’ route to victory both for the New York Jets and DFS players would be to lean on quarterback Mike White against the Buffalo Bills. Unfortunately for White, he has been in this situation before and failed miserably. It’s possible that he has improved — and I would be willing to lean on a pass-catcher from the Jets — but I simply can’t expect a tournament-winning performance from him. I will lower my ceiling for the Bills’ offense as well, though, as the Jets have played well enough defensively all year — and against Buffalo in the teams’ prior meeting — that another big effort wouldn’t surprise me.
Targets: Mike White — if going ‘contrarian’ — Michael Carter, Garrett Wilson, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis
Fades: None, but I likely won’t be playing a defense from this game
Must-Owns: None, but I might slide Diggs into this category if I expect a big win by the Bills
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Browns offense predictably struggled last week in Deshaun Watson’s return to football. Fortunately for the Browns, they were playing the worst team in the league, and their defense and special teams were able to single-handedly beat Houston comfortably. That luxury won’t be there this week against a Bengals team that has been one of the top teams in the league over the past month. Their current hot streak started immediately following the blowout loss they suffered at the hands of the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns on Thursday night back in Week 8. All signs point towards the Bengals getting their revenge this week as they take advantage of a weak Browns defense and extremely rusty Deshaun Watson.
Targets: Amari Cooper, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd
Fades: Samje Perine (still priced for a Joe Mixon absence)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The storyline for the Cleveland Browns’ last game was the return of quarterback Deshaun Watson and, as I wrote before the matchup, his presence was a nonfactor. The Browns barely moved the ball on offense and were greatly assisted by horrible play on behalf of the Texans. They won’t get that same level of contributions from the Cincinnati Bengals — who are in a great position to put up points — but the Browns should also be much better in Watson’s second start compared to his first. I would go as far as using him in a lineup if I make more than one, as there is plenty of potential for him now that he has a week of game action after a long layoff.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper — if healthy — Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It never feels great to completely disregard an NFL team, but I simply do not see a path for Houston competing in this game. They are turning back to Davis Mills at quarterback, and while that may be “better” it certainly doesn’t make their offense good, and they are still well overmatched against a stout Cowboys defense. The Cowboys are putting up points at an insane rate having scored 199 points over their past five games (average of 39.8 per game) while scoring at least 28 in all five of those games. Between their defense likely to keep contributing points, and their offense able to control the game as well, it is hard to imagine them not continuing to average nearly 40 points after this game is done.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and Cowboys Defense
Fades: Texans Offense
Must-Owns: None, but rostering a player from the Cowboys in every lineup for this week is probably a smart move
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Houston Texans are turning back to Davis Mills at quarterback and, while I assume that most people will think it is a useless endeavor, I actually find some value with it. Mills has been the team’s starter for basically the last two years and, while he hasn’t been able to win many games, he does randomly provide some decent outputs. If, nothing else, the few regular contributors from the Texans are on my radar. Of course, it’s hard to see what the Dallas Cowboys did last week on both sides of the ball and ignore them, so proceed with caution if you don’t try to fit someone from their roster onto your lineup. The bigger issue for me is that regression is likely after a 54-point explosion, so there may not be that many touchdowns to go around if you don’t land on the right one.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Cowboys defense, Davis Mills, Dameon Pierce, Phillip Dorsett, and Chris Moore
Fades: Ezekiel Elliott — if the regression hits the team, he may not find the end zone
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a year filled with things that seemingly make no sense, this game features a 5-7 team being a favorite against a 10-2 team. That is especially crazy to see considering the Vikings are not dealing with any significant injuries, so the world simply thinks that the Lions are better than the Vikings right now. When you look at the way Minnesota has won games, and the way that Detroit should have won in their first matchup, it is hard to argue with the logic of Detroit being the betting favorite. I am happy I don’t have to try to pick the spread for this game, but instead I can simply focus on the fact that both of these offenses rank in the top ten of the league in scoring while the defenses are 31st and 32nd in the league in yards allowed. This game will be a popular target for DFS players, and I will be on the bandwagon as well.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, T.J. Hockenson, Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, and Jameson WIlliams
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Normally, I try to keep my thoughts about the spread and actual outcome away from this article, but it’s not always possible. The storyline for the divisional game between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions is simply that Detroit is favored. That is going to get attention no matter which side you ultimately think wins. The only route for a Lions victory would be offensive, but there is a clear path to both teams combining for plenty of points. That might be the ‘chalk’ and obvious expectation, but it’s hard to see the spotlight on this game because of the spread and walk away from it without trying to use someone in my lineup.
Targets: The usual playmakers from both offenses, where Justin Jefferson leads the way if you can afford his high price tag
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but this will be an important game to identify as a ‘stack’ or ‘fade’ and it might become necessary to use someone from here
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tennessee Titans have been wildly disappointing in two consecutive games after putting themselves in great position to be near the top of the AFC standings. Coming off back-to-back losses, I expect them to lean heavily on their bread and butter game plan against a vulnerable Jaguars team and pound Derrick Henry all game long. Henry has always loved playing against these Jaguars, and I expect this game to be the latest installment of that. The Titans defense has severe struggles against the pass, so I will be willing to go back to the well with the Jaguars offense as Trevor Lawrence will likely be busy trying to keep his team in this game.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Robert Woods
Fades: Titans Defense
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There’s no denying the storyline in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans as it has been the same storyline for basically each of their meetings over the last few years. That is, Titans running back Derrick Henry will be expected to plow through Jacksonville as he has done numerous times in the past. This is simply a decision point of how to handle his obvious popularity, but it’s impossible to leave him out of a lineup if you make more than one. Otherwise, we have to monitor the status of Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, although I may still lean on Jacksonville’s rushing attack with-or-without Lawrence.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Derrick Henry, Robert Woods, Travis Etienne, Jr., and Christian Kirk
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Giants have now gone three consecutive games without a victory, and their once comfortable playoff positioning has quickly become far more fragile. With the offensive output being so limited — not a single game over 27 points, 22nd in the league in yards, and 21st in the league in scoring — and their defense allowing 20 or more points in four of their last five games, it is hard to be extremely optimistic against the Eagles this week. I don’t expect the Giants to roll over and die, but their defense is likely going to spend a lot of time on the field, and I can’t expect them to hold up if their offense can’t pull its weight. I don’t expect this to be the Eagles best offensive output, but the same few players continue to pop thanks constant volume and favorable matchups so it is hard to not expect continued success from the same key Eagles players
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, and Darius Slayton
Fades: Daniel Jones
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Giants consistently flow their offense through running back Saquon Barkley, and we can always be grateful for that type of commitment. Still, we are also seeing how overextended the team was, and the offense, as a whole, is becoming less reliable. The opposite is true for the Philadelphia Eagles, as they simply keep performing no matter the situation. There is a slight concern that Philadelphia gets tripped up like it did in a prior division game against Washington — and I will reiterate that, even with the Eagles’ success, they have only scored 30 or more points four times all year. I won’t ignore this game, but I also won’t be too exposed to it.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Darius Slayton, Jalen Hurts — who is close to a ‘must-play’ — Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and both defenses
Fades: None, but I won’t be too aggressive with this game
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The big storyline for this game is clearly the expected absence of Lamar Jackson, and understandably so. Jackson had been struggling to keep this offense afloat himself given their general lack of supporting talent, and now that task falls to Tyler Huntley. Huntley has performed admirably in relief duty in the past, including last week’s comeback victory, but it is hardly fair to ask him to complete a task that even Lamar Jackson was struggling to perform. With the Steelers defense improving of late — having allowed fewer than 20 points in three of their last four games — my expectations for the Ravens offense are limited at best. The Steelers offense has seemingly been improving, but their ceiling remains extremely limited as they have only surpassed 24 points in one game this season. The Ravens defense has become known for blowing leads, but they quietly have a top ten scoring defense despite their issues.
Targets: Mark Andrews, George Pickens, Steelers Defense
Fades: Tyler Huntley and Najee Harris
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The leading story for the Baltimore Ravens is the status of quarterback Lamar Jackson but, as of this writing, it seems extremely doubtful that he will play. If he does surprise us, then I would actually take a chance with him despite the nature of a divisional battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Otherwise, I’m out on everyone from Baltimore’s offense, as the Steelers have faced backup Tyler Huntley in the past and shut him down with relative ease. Pittsburgh’s defense gets a boost in that situation. On the other side of the ball, we keep writing that the Steelers’ offense has quietly taken strides forward, and we stand by that. Pittsburgh had tallied at least 320 yards of offense just twice in its first eight games but has now eclipsed that mark in four consecutive weeks. There’s certainly potential for a nice outing.
Targets: Mark Andrews, Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and Pittsburgh’s defense
Fades: Everyone else from Baltimore
Must-Owns: None, but Andrews is close
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this point in the season there are some teams who continue to surprise us, and some teams who simply are who they are — the Broncos fall into the latter category. Their defense continues to grind out good efforts week in and week out while the offense continues to fail miserably. Facing off against the Chiefs is going to put a new level of pressure on their defense. We haven’t really seen the Broncos defense break yet, but if their offense keeps giving the ball right back to Patrick Mahomes, this game may quickly get ugly. With Courtland Sutton ruled out for this week, the volume may be there to bring some safe floor to a few Broncos players, but I can’t justify ownership of any player in an offense that has this low of a floor and ceiling. As always with the Chiefs, start your ownership with Mahomes and Travis Kelce and sprinkle in other players as you see fit hoping to strike gold with a secondary target.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs Defense, and Jerry Jeudy
Fades: Russell Wilson
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As I now write regularly, the Denver Broncos are either going to collapse defensively or finally put something together on offense. The former seems a lot more likely with the Kansas City Chiefs and their elite offense coming to town. There’s a chance that the Chiefs will be slightly less popular in a matchup with Denver’s excellent defense, so there is some leverage to be had there. There is also a small potential that the Broncos are so forced to perform offensively that they actually do. Unfortunately, I have written that too many times this year and failed with that approach.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, and Jerry Jeudy — who might be a ‘must-play’ with Courtland Sutton out
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense found another way to manufacture a win last week, but they simply are not playing good football. For an offense with this much talent to be sitting at 27th in the league in scoring is all you need to know that something is wrong. The only saving grace for the fantasy outlook of the offense is that they throw the ball more than any team in the league which provides value in PPR scoring. It is hard to see their upside even with the high pass volume against the league’s best defense who put another feather in their cap last week with a tremendous outing against the red-hot Dolphins offense. Brock Purdy filled in admirably last week after the latest 49ers quarterback injury, but spending the whole week preparing as the starter is sometimes harder than stepping in and letting your adrenaline lead the way. Purdy will likely be fine long term due to the nature of this 49ers offense and the weapons at his disposal, but his first start comes against a strong defense in a game that is screaming to be low-scoring. I do still love the idea of Christian McCaffrey as he will likely be littered with targets all game long as a safety valve for Purdy.
Targets: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers Defense, Deebo Samuel, and 49ers Defense
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco is nothing-but-storylines. For Tampa Bay, we have the thrilling come-from-behind victory that reminded us all of what quarterback Tom Brady can do. For San Francisco, it’s the transition from backup-turned-starting-quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to third-string-turned-starting-quarterback Brock Purdy. On top of those actual narratives, we also have to deal with people’s expectations driven largely by last week’s results. Still, the overall season numbers tell us that the 49ers will run the ball and both teams will play solid defense. There’s likely not much more to it than that.
Targets: Tom Brady — it is worth noting that he grew up as a fan of the 49ers and will be playing in San Francisco for only the second time in his career — Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and 49ers defense
Fades: Brock Purdy
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It wasn’t pretty against a depleted Rams team, but the Seahawks battled out another victory last week as their playoff battle is coming down to the wire. A win this week against the lowly Panthers goes a long way, but I don’t think it is going to be as easy as people would like to think. The Panthers defense is getting healthier, and they are flashing the dominance that we know they have the talent to possess. Over their last three games the Panthers defense has allowed just 38 points with no more than 15 in a single game. Add in the clearly improved play with Sam Darnold under center, and the bye week to prepare for this game, I actually like Carolina to make this game quite interesting and possibly pull off the upset.
Targets: Sam Darnold, DJ Moore, Panthers Defense, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: D’Onta Foreman
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Did the Carolina Panthers actually put together an offense behind quarterback Sam Darnold? It certainly appeared that way in the team’s last game where it not only won, but moved the ball well against an outstanding Denver defense. The Seattle Seahawks have a terrible defense, so there’s a nice potential hiding with the Panthers’ offense. On top of that, Carolina’s defense has been quite good at times this year, and might slow down Seattle’s offense. I won’t invest too heavily with players from the Seahawks.
Targets: Sam Darnold, D’Onta Foreman, Panthers defense, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: DJ Moore
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week, I was down on the Dolphins offense in their tough matchup, and while that prediction looked bad on the first play, it wound up being pretty accurate. After facing off with the league’s best defense, the matchup this week gets considerably easier. I will happily jump back on the bandwagon this week as the Dolphins have repeatedly beat up on bad defenses. Despite all of their injuries, and all of their struggles, the Chargers are alive and fighting for their playoff lives. One thing that I love about the Chargers is that you can always count on them to play up (or down) to their competition. Through twelve games, the Chargers have played nine one possession games — that is who the Chargers are. I have little to no faith in their defense to slow down Miami, so I will instead put my faith in Justin Herbert and the offense to keep them in this game, even if they fall short in the end.
Targets: Tua Tagovailoa, Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyreek Hill, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Jaylen Waddle
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the weirdest trends to note with the Los Angeles Chargers is simply that they have not played well in Primetime. Their only victory in the four — already, that’s a large number — night games this season was against the pathetic Broncos in overtime. This is not a great setup for a team that can’t stop anyone and will face the duo of talented wide receivers from the Miami Dolphins. Los Angeles is technically worse against the run than pass, but the Dolphins have the third-fewest rush attempts in the league — which is even more staggering considering the team’s 8-4 record where it definitely has opportunities to run the clock. The good news for the Chargers is that Miami’s defense has also been bad on the year, and it has allowed at least 110 rushing yards in three-of-its-last-four games.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, Tua Tagovailoa, Jeff Wilson, Jr., Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Dolphins defense
Fades: None, but I am not using too many players from Los Angeles on a two-game Primetime slate
Must-Owns: At least one of Hill and Waddle
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Patriots may just have the most infuriating offense in the entire NFL. They are not without talent, and there are weeks where the pieces come together to make a pretty impressive target. Then, there are weeks where things aren’t going well and they look like they have never played football before. With all of that said, the Cardinals are the type of team that the Patriots should be expected to play well against. The Patriots defense has a chance to dominate against the haphazard Cardinals offense, and with the Cardinals defense allowing the second most points in the league, the Patriots offense should be just fine. The other problem with New England is that even when their offense is good, the committee approach to their entire offense limits the upside of every player not named Rhamondre Stevenson. This game has potential to see a fair amount of scoring, but the number of players that are likely to have big fantasy outputs is quite limited.
Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, Jakobi Meyers (if healthy), Kyler Murray, and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: Mac Jones
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve written about this in a few different articles over the past few weeks, but the New England Patriots’ defense has struggled most against quarterbacks who can run. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is the epitome of the ability to run, and this is the perfect time to buy back into him — especially coming off a bye week. The only question is whether-or-not the Patriots’ offense steps up, and the good news for New England is that it has an absolutely outstanding matchup with Arizona. As a team, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most points-per-game in the league and, in the last six weeks, only the Rams — led by a backup quarterback — scored fewer than 25 points. There’s a chance that we see some surprising offense on Monday Night Football.
Targets: Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jacoby Meyers, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cardinals defense — if looking for an option in the two-game Primetime slate outside of Miami
Fades: Most other offensive players from New England
Must-Owns: Kyler Murray