For the first time in weeks, we have a massive main slate that includes twelve games. Such is the case when the early morning International games are behind us and there are only two teams on a bye.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 13 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If the Steelers offense can continue their improved play of late, they have a chance to start bringing value to the fantasy football world. While that chance is there, the results, so far, are not. Kenny Pickett has zero games of 20-plus fantasy points, Najee Harris has one such game, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth all have zero 20-plus point games as well. Maybe they will break out one day, but even in a positive matchup, it is hard to be willing to commit to any member of an offense that has displayed that type of low ceiling all year long. The Falcons offense was extremely consistent and predictable for the first half of the year, but they have been struggling of late with just one game over 20 points in their past four outings. There may be a fair amount of yards gained by both teams in this one, but the fantasy output figures to be underwhelming.
Targets: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Steelers Defense, and Cordarrelle Patterson
Fades: Marcus Mariota
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Pittsburgh Steelers are finally having some success on offense, as evidenced by the team scoring at least 20 points in all three games since their bye week — as opposed to doing so just three times in the first eight games of the year. They have a statistically better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, but it does cause concern that running back Najee Harris is dealing with an injury. The Steelers were a different team last week with Harris on the field compared to when he was ultimately hurt, and it is not inspiring considering how ineffective the offense looked in the second half. The Falcons also have their uphill battle, as the Steelers’ defense is clearly playing better with linebacker T.J. Watt on the field. There’s probably some sneaky upside here for a few players, but the game is not likely to deliver fantasy gems everywhere.
Targets: Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris — if he plays — Jaylen Warren — if Harris is out — Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Marcus Mariota, and Cordarrelle Patterson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game seems to be a battle of immovable forces, but eventually, something has to give. You have a Packers offense that is endlessly banged up and inconsistent against a Bears defense that has allowed between 27 and 49 points in all of their past five games. The matchup is amazing, but outside of a few sprinkles of skill position players, I am having a hard time committing to an offense that has struggled and has question marks at every single position. Justin Fields seems likely to return after a one game absence, but I am not optimistic for his upside even against a struggling Packers defense. Fields will be without his top receiver, and I am still concerned about his willingness to run and take a hit given his shoulder injury.
Targets: Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Packers Defense
Fades: Justin Fields
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Obviously, the injury news for both quarterbacks in the game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears is going to have a huge impact on what we should expect, but it should ultimately affect each team differently. If Justin Fields can’t play for the Bears, then I’m out on all pass-catchers, and the floor is likely lowered for the running backs against a Packers defense that will gameplan for a heavy rushing attack. If Aaron Rodgers is out for Green Bay, there is some potential in Jordan Love, but I would expect the Packers to simply lean on their running backs more, where we can trust the duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to some extent.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers — if he plays — Jordan Love — if Rodgers doesn’t play — Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Packers defense — if Fields is out — Justin Fields — if healthy — and Chase Claypool — if Fields plays
Fades: Everyone else from Chicago
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For a team that we have been high on all season, it was nice to see what could be looked at as the true emergence of Trevor Lawrence in last week’s comeback victory. I have written almost every week that I like the upside in the top Jaguars players, and I am not going to back off of that against one of the league’s worst defenses. I have no problem committing to the Jaguars offense in a dome game, but part of their upside will be tied to which version of the Lions offense we see this week. After a consistently amazing first half of the season, the Lions offense has been hit or miss over the past month. I am going to expect them to hold their own this week and make this potentially one of the higher scoring games of the week. The Jaguars defense has allowed at least 20 points in six consecutive games, and considering the Lions defense has allowed at least 20 points in all but two games this season, I like this game to provide plenty of scoring.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Zay Jones, Jared Goff, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Christian Kirk
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jacksonville Jaguars have steadily produced against weaker defenses, and the Detroit Lions statistically have the weakest defense of all. I may not go overboard with players from Jacksonville, but it’s hard to see what the Jaguars did last week late in the game against Baltimore and ignore the possibility of that taking place over the course of four quarters instead of one. The opposite matchup has a similar setup, too. The Jaguars rank ninth-worst in yards-allowed-per-game, and the Lions still rank eighth in the league in points scored and yards gained on a per-game basis.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jr. — if he plays — Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Jared Goff, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Once again, Mike White makes a season debut and proceeds to set the football world on fire. This week, White gets to take aim at the league’s biggest enigma in the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are mediocre or worse in just about every single statistic on offense and defense, yet they are an amazing 9-2 on the year. I have always been hard on the Jets offense because under Zach Wilson, the offense seemed to have an incredibly low ceiling. Even though I don’t think Mike White is the long term solution at quarterback, he clearly gives the offense a better chance to succeed, and against a vulnerable defense, why shouldn’t we have at least moderate expectations again? It becomes easier to buy in when you see the extremely moderate salaries for all of the top players on the Jets offense. If they put together another good game, the value there is extremely appealing. The Vikings offense isn’t as good as people want to believe it is, and the Jets defense is not an easy matchup by any means. With that said, the top players on Minnesota are always worth a dart as any one of them can explode on any given day.
Targets: Mike White, Zonovan Knight, Ty Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Garrett Wilson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Break up the New York Jets! Say what you will about backup-turned-starting-quarterback Mike White, but the offense was undoubtedly more productive and efficient than it had been in prior games under former starter Zach Wilson. Of course, some of that was matchup-based, but isn’t the matchup in New York’s favor again? The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the second-most yards-per-game and most passing yards in the league. The Jets also have the edge on the opposite of the matchup, where the Vikings sit in the middle of the pack for points and yards on offense, and New York features an excellent defense that ranks in the top-seven for all major categories.
Targets: Mike White, Michael Carter, James Robinson, Garrett Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: None, but I can see myself staying away from Justin Jefferson in this matchup at his high salary
Must-Owns: None, but Garrett Wilson is close
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite both of these NFC East teams currently holding playoff positions, I am having a hard time having any expectations in this game for fantasy purposes. Since Week 2, Washington has scored more than 20 points in just three games, and during their seven game hot streak, the Commanders defense has allowed 21 points or fewer in every single game. The Giants once extremely promising season is starting to look pretty grim as they seem to be regressing on both sides of the ball. Their offense has scored 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games and is yet to score more than 27 points in a single game. The Giants defense has also been struggling, but I think they are still good enough to slow down this low-scoring Commanders offense. The importance of this game cannot be understated, but the fantasy football value here is not anything to get excited about.
Targets: Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders Defense, Saquon Barkley, Giants Defense
Fades: Taylor Heinicke
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The major storyline for the divisional game between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders is the red-hot playoff chase that will include two meetings in a three-week span. The Giants have fallen off from their 7-2 start, while the Commanders have been unstoppable, winning six-of-their-last-seven games. I don’t think either streak matters at the moment, as we aren’t likely to see both offenses exchanging big plays. More likely, it’s the usual suspects performing steadily over the course of the matchup in a close, probably low-scoring output. It is worth mentioning, however, that Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has played some of his best games against Washington, as he is 4-1 in those matchups with nine touchdown passes and only three interceptions — two of which came in his rookie year and his second career start.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Darius Slayton, Giants defense, Brian Robinson, Jr., and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Taylor Heinicke and Commanders defense
Must-Owns:
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Eagles have been flirting with disaster for much of the last month, and the Titans are the wrong team to face under those conditions. I am well aware of the fact that the Eagles put up 500 yards of offense last week, but any time a team manages to compile 363 yards on the ground, I am always going to point a finger at the opposing defense rather than give too much credit to the offense. The Packers defense had no interest in slowing down the ground game, but things may be different this week against a Titans defense that is allowing the second fewest yards per attempt on the ground. We know the Titans offense wants to lean on the ground game, and against an Eagles defense that struggles to stop the run, this is quietly a good matchup for the Titans. It may seem impossible given the Eagles are 10-1, but the Titans have the advantage in the ground game on both sides of the ball which makes me think they pull off the upset on the road this week.
Targets: Titans Defense, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown
Fades: Miles Sanders
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m starting to see a decent amount of people supporting the Tennessee Titans on Sunday despite the team returning from a loss. I get it, as the Titans are one of the tougher squads in the league and tend to compete against any opponent. Still, the Philadelphia Eagles are 9-1 and deserve respect for a rushing attack that seems to never end. If any team should look favorably upon that, it’s the Titans who live to run the ball. Both sides should have success with that approach, even though we have to scale back our expectations from the Eagles after they amassed a ridiculous 363 rushing yards as a team last week.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Mile Sanders, A.J. Brown — especially against his former team — Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and Treylon Burks
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A matchup against a Ravens team that seems to love blowing leads seems like the perfect opportunity to wake this Broncos offense up. While that thought may carry some weight, I promised myself I would stop sitting here and waiting for the Broncos offense to figure things out. One day the Broncos may produce more than 23 points (they have only reached 20 points two times all season) and return fantasy value, but nobody in their right mind is rostering Broncos players anyway, so it won’t hurt to miss out on that day. The Ravens offense has been in a rut for some time now, and even with the luxury of playing against the league’s worst offense, a matchup against this Broncos defense is enough to keep me from investing heavily. The Ravens top few players have the upside to always be worth a dart, but I will be treading lightly this week.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, Mark Andrews, Ravens Defense
Fades: Broncos Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I wrote about this in my picks article, but either the Denver Broncos’ offense is going to suddenly wake up — which is possible against a Baltimore Ravens defense that continually falters — or the Broncos’ defense is going to stop performing. The latter would happen when the team can no longer stand idly by as the offense struggles. Because of the possibility that both can happen on Sunday — Denver can score while also breaking on defense — I find some sneaky upside to targeting players from this matchup as a whole. Obviously, leaning on the Broncos has failed in the past, but it’s a ‘contrarian’ play that can produce big results.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Latavius Murray, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy — if healthy — Lamar Jackson — if healthy — Gus Edwards, Devin Duvernay, and DeMarcus Robinson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After nearly two years of being away from football, Deshaun Watson is making his highly anticipated, and controversial return, this week. The set up against his former team – who happens to be the worst team in the league by far – makes it very tempting to want to go all in on Watson, but that seems extremely foolish at this point. The drama and the distractions involved in him returning to Houston alone is enough for me to stay away for this week. The fact that he has not played a regular season game in nearly two years all but guarantees that he will be extremely rusty. The matchup is good enough that the Browns may be able to lean entirely on the ground game and win easily, but I will be holding off on buying into Watson until we see that he can play at a high level.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Browns Defense, Dameon Pierce
Fades: Deshaun Watson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is no doubt about the main storyline for the game between the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans, as it is one that formed months ago. Former Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson forced his way out of Houston this past offseason and was eventually suspended for the first eleven games of the year. He now returns to action for the first time in almost two calendar years, and his opponent is none other than the Texans. That’s where every narrative will start, and it’s where most will end. We should be a little more proactive and realize that Houston will be playing this game as if it were its own Super Bowl, and the defense is not going to roll over and die without a fight. I’m not using the Browns’ offense here, and I might go as far as using Houston’s defense. There is also some upside of the Texans on offense, as Cleveland has allowed the third-most points-per-game in the league.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, whichever Houston quarterback starts, Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, and Texans defense
Fades: Deshaun Watson
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Seattle Seahawks suffered a brutal loss last week that pushed them on the outside of the playoff picture. Between their matchup with the Rams and the Commanders and Giants facing off, Seattle is in good shape to gain ground in the playoff picture this week. Things keep getting worse for the Rams who are without Cooper Kupp, still without Matthew Stafford and now also without Allen Robinson II and Aaron Donald. John Wolford is expected to take back duties under center, and he does have a decent matchup in what should be a positive game script. Despite those positives, the offense is so depleted that it is hard to really have much of any expectations in an offense led by John Wolford, Kyren Williams, and Van Jefferson.
Targets: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Seahawks Defense, and Kyren Williams
Fades: John Wolford
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s becoming easier to ignore the Los Angeles Rams on a weekly basis, and Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks is no exception. Unfortunately, even if we were to find value with Los Angeles, it likely doesn’t have any fantasy impact outside of the defense. Otherwise, we have to target Seattle’s playmakers, although I might lower my expectations a bit in a road game against a division rival that is trying to stop its downward spiral.
Targets: Bryce Perkins, Cam Akers — if healthy — Kyren Williams — if Akers is out — Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, Rams defense, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a week with many unexciting games, we have one of the most intriguing games of the season between two teams loaded with similarities. Mike McDaniel is a product of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, and the Dolphins team is loaded with ex-49ers players. The biggest question is can the 49ers vaunted defense finally slow down a Dolphins offense that is on a four game streak of scoring 30 or more points. This Dolphins offense has seemed unstoppable, but context does matter, and it doesn’t paint the prettiest picture for Miami. The last four teams the Dolphins have faced are the Lions, Bears, Browns and Texans who all rank in the bottom ten of the league in scoring defense. I don’t know if the Dolphins will be completely shut down, but I am pretty confident we will see the streak of 30 point outings come to a halt. Given some improved play from the Dolphins defense, and my skepticism behind a Jimmy Garappolo led offense, I think this game has a real chance to underwhelm fantasy football fans. I expect this game to be controlled by defenses and running the ball and will be taking a calculated risk to largely fade players in this game.
Targets: Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, and 49ers defense
Fades: Tua Tagovailoa and Jimmy Garappolo
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The leading storyline for the game between the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins is Miami’s new head coach Mike McDaniel and his return to San Francisco to play against his former organization. McDaniel has obviously done well in his first year with the Dolphins, so it’s certainly plausible that he would be able to carry that over this week. The problem is that San Francisco sports the best defense in the game. If you want to go ‘contrarian,’ then the Dolphins’ key players are the obvious targets. Otherwise, it’s the usual suspects from San Francisco.
Targets: Jimmy Garoppolo, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jeff Wilson, Jr., Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is being touted as one of the games of the year with full expectations of a high-scoring explosion, and it is hard to argue against it. The Kansas City Chiefs come in with the league’s best offense ranking first in total yards and scoring. Just one time all year have then been held to fewer than 20 points. The Bengals defense is respectable, but no matter who the opponent, Patrick Mahomes is likely to go out and win the battle against any defense on any given week. The Bengals offense has had a bit of a roller coaster of a season, but their offensive line play is significantly improved from their early season struggles, and they are expected to be back at full strength this week. With their full arsenal of offensive weapons, and better protection for Joe Burrow, the Bengals should be able to keep pace in a high scoring affair. That all feels pretty easy to predict, but the true mystery is which players to lean on for fantasy purposes as both teams have numerous players that can hurt you. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce feel like must-plays every week, but they also have a number of secondary targets capable of making plays. It will be interesting to see how the Bengals utilize Ja’Marr Chase after a multi-week absence, but I would be surprised if he isn’t leaned on heavily immediately.
Targets: Isiah Pacheco, Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Travis Kelce, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Kansas City Chiefs are marching through their schedule and knocking off opponents along-the-way, and they now sit atop the conference with a 9-2 record. Their matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals isn’t necessarily perfect, but when has that stopped them? The usual suspects from Kansas City are on my radar, and I have no objecting with using them in bulk. The Bengals have also surged of late, winning three consecutive games and five-of-their-last-six. Of course, this is the toughest test they will have had in a long time — probably all season — but the Chiefs’ defense isn’t anything to fear. Specifically, Kansas City has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns in the league. Obviously, much of that is driven by game flow, where teams are frequently trailing against the Chiefs and need to throw, but it is noteworthy nonetheless.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon — if he plays — Ja’Marr Chase — if he plays — Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Sometimes we get ourselves into trouble by overthinking certain games, and I am worried I may do that for this matchup. Despite many ups and downs for both of these offenses, there is no denying the elite talent that both groups possess. When you compare the offensive talent to the fact that both of these defenses rank outside the top 25 in the league in total yards and scoring, this game feels like an obvious game to expect a high score. That was my first instinct, but then it hit me, don’t the Chargers and Raiders feel like the perfect combination of teams to completely disappoint high expectations? The Raiders are fresh off back-to-back overtime victories following back-to-back one possession losses while the Chargers have also played four consecutive one possession, high drama games capped by last week’s bold victory. After a month of dramatic games and crazy finishes, both of these teams feel primed for a let down. I won’t be fully fading because the talent very well may shine through against these weak defenses, but I am going to avoid overloading any single lineup with players from this game.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Josh Jacobs, and Devante Adams
Fades: Justin Herbert and Derek Carr
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Las Vegas Raiders finally popped on offense to the tune of 40 points last week, but they remain a boom-or-bust squad over the course of the season. Through eleven games, the Raiders have scored at least 32 points three times but, over the last five weeks, they were shutout once and broke through 22 points one other time — last week. Prior to that shutout, the lowest point total of the season was against the Los Angeles Chargers. Indeed, it was back in Week 1, but the Raiders have hardly been consistent enough to trust on a regular basis. The same is actually true for Los Angeles, as the Chargers have only scored 30 points in a game twice: Weeks 4 and 5. Despite the number of playmakers on each side, I’m hesitant to get too excited about this matchup for DFS purposes.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett, Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, and Davante Adams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Austin Ekeler
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a promising introduction to the Jeff Saturday era in Indianapolis, things have quickly gone back downhill for the Colts. Over their past two games, the Colts offense has failed to score more than 17 points, break 300 yards of offense, or surpass 200 total passing yards. Their struggles are in large part due to a struggling offensive line and the general struggles of Matt Ryan and his lack of mobility. None of that bodes well against a Cowboys defense that puts as much pressure on opposing quarterbacks as any team in the league. The Colts defense is good enough to slow the Cowboys down to some degree, but a disadvantage in possessions and field position likely plays against them and puts the Cowboys offense in a position to produce based on sheer volume and opportunity.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Cowboys Defense
Fades: Matt Ryan
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels like every week presents the same question about the Indianapolis Colts: is this the time when they finally collapse after the transition at head coach or will they keep fighting? We did start to see some of said collapse last week against the Steelers, but then again, the Colts also put up a fight. What we do continue to learn is that Matt Ryan isn’t the answer at quarterback and, even if he surprises us with a big game, that will be more of an unexpected outcome than one we should have foreseen. It is possible that Indianapolis’ defense keeps it in the game — that has been the case all season, as the Colts haven’t allowed more than 27 points all year — so there is a ‘contrarian’ angle to play there. Otherwise, the Dallas Cowboys and their top stars are the main players to target.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Jr., Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, and Cowboys defense
Fades: Matt Ryan
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels wrong to say it, but this Saints team that sits at 4-8 and is coming off a zero point performance on offense would likely be a half-game out of first place in the division if they can win this week. Given our propensity to bet on a team coming off of a shutout, the Buccaneers overall struggles, and the Saints dominance of the Bucs in recent years, a Saints victory does not feel like a reach. After an incredibly disappointing start to the season, the Saints defense has been playing much better of late allowing more than 20 points just one time in their last four games. With the Buccaneers having the 27th ranked scoring offense, I like the Saints defense to be able to control this game. This game has all the makings of a sloppy division battle led by the defenses where one play could make or break the game for either team. The Buccaneers offense being as pass-heavy as they are still gives them the edge in fantasy appeal.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Saints Defense, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every time the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet, we are reminded that New Orleans’ defense really does give Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady a hard time. It feels a little too easy to lean on that outcome, but the numbers speak for themselves. Brady is now 1-4 against New Orleans since joining the Buccaneers in 2020, and he has thrown just seven touchdowns in those games as compared to eight interceptions. That can’t be ignored. I won’t ask the Saints’ offense to break through against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the top-nine for yards and points allowed, but that would also be a ‘contrarian’ path to the top of the DFS standings if it were to work.
Targets: Andy Dalton, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson — if active — Adam Trautman — if Johnson is out — Saints defense, Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara