We may have had three games already played on Thanksgiving, but the full, 16-game schedule for Week 12 means that we have plenty of matchups ahead of us. With so many on the slate, we are bound to find a decent amount of value with some.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This week marks the end of Jacoby Brissett’s run as starting quarterback for the Browns. If you told people they would be 3-6 under Brissett, that may not have been a surprise. If you told people Brissett would lead an offense that was 4th in the league in yards and 10th in scoring while the defense ranks 19th in yards and 30th in scoring, that would be a surprise. Sometimes, things are not what they appear to be, and that is the case for Brissett and the Browns, so despite a tough matchup against a Buccaneers team coming off a bye week, I like Brissett to lead this offense to one more strong outing. I am not sure it will be enough for victory — as has been the case most of the season — as Tom Brady and the Buccaneers seem to be rounding into form a bit lately and should be ready to go this week coming off their bye week.
Targets: Tom Brady, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and Donovan Peoples-Jones
Fades: Buccaneers Defense
Must-Owns: None, but Rachaad White feels close especially if Leonard Fournette is out or expected to be limited
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We are at the point of the season where players like Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady makes their moves and teams like the Cleveland Browns fall to the wayside, and that trend began a few weeks ago. The problem is that neither outcome gives us value in the DFS world, and it’s almost a wasted effort unless one side of the matchup were to overextend — even in the wrong direction. Brady putting together a big game would obviously carry fantasy value to his pass-catchers — and it is possible since Cleveland is allowing the third-most points-per-game — while the Browns faltering allows the Buccaneers’ defense to be a top play. There is upside with Cleveland’s quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, as this might be his last start before Deshaun Watson returns next week.
Targets: Jacoby Brissett, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette — if he plays — Rachaad White — especially if Fournette doesn’t play — Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Buccaneers defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite largely inconsistent play from both teams this season, these two AFC teams are set for a rematch of last year’s dramatic playoff game that saw Cincinnati steal a win from the top-seeded Titans. Unfortunately for the Titans, the matchup does not seem to favor them this week. The Titans defense has allowed the 3rd most passing yards of any defense in the league, and the Bengals offense ranks 4th in passing yards and 8th in net yards per pass attempt. The Bengals should be comfortable dropping back and attacking through the air all afternoon long. The Titans offense is coming off their best showing of the season, and a mini bye week thanks to a Thursday game. In that outing, the non-existent pass game finally awoke from a season-long slumber and assisted Derrick Henry. If Ryan Tannehill can continue to be that effective through the air, the Titans are poised for another strong finish heading toward yet another playoff berth under Head Coach Mike Vrabel.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase (if active), Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and Treylon Burks
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The key storyline for this week’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans is the rematch from last year’s playoff game. At first glance, the low final score is likely to turn people away from this matchup, but I found it interesting to see how everything unfolded. The Bengals led for the majority of the game and limited running back Derrick Henry to an extreme level. As often as I write about using Henry, I might strategically avoid him here. Eventually, Tennessee was able to put together a comeback and tie the game, but I’m putting plenty of value in the fact that Cincinnati never trailed and obviously had to score in order to stay ahead — or reclaim the lead at the end. Tennessee’s defense has been better of late, but it has also allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the league.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase — if he plays — Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Bengals defense, and Ryan Tannehill
Fades: Derrick Henry
Must-Owns: Samaje Perine
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: To say that things have been bad for the Texans this season would be a significant understatement. The Texans rank outside the top 20 in passing and rushing efficiency stats on both offense and defense. Those struggles have them ranking 32nd in overall yards of offense and 30th in yards allowed on defense. Those struggles have put them in position to bench Davis Mills and hand the quarterback duties over to Kyle Allen. There is nothing in Allen’s history to suggest he will be the solution to Houston’s problems, but it is possible that he provides some short-term spark to this offense. That becomes even more possible against a Dolphins offense that has been steam-rolling opposing defenses at will. It is hard to see this Texans defense slowing them down much, so Kyle Allen is likely to be forced into a pass-heavy game script that could produce some fantasy value for Houston receivers.
Targets: Kyle Allen, Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: Dolphins Defense
Must-Owns: Jeff Wilson Jr.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is simply nothing that can be written that would inspire confidence in using players from the Houston Texans. Their game against the Miami Dolphins is as close to a mismatch as it gets, and there is essentially no justification to avoiding players from Miami. I’m never one to go fully overboard with players from the offense of a heavy favorite, so I will remain cautious here, but the play is to lean on the Dolphins unless you plan to be ‘contrarian’ or expect Houston to sneak in a few scoring drives — which is certainly possible with Miami’s defense ranking in the lower-half of the league.
Targets: Kyle Allen, Dameon Pierce, Brandin Cooks, Tua Tagovailoa, Jeff Wilson, Jr., Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A matchup between the Chicago Bears and New York Jets was never likely to be a strong fantasy target of mine, and news throughout the week hasn’t inspired me to take the dive. The Bears offense has been significantly more productive lately, but the bulk of that effectiveness has come from Justin Fields’ running ability. Fields may or may not be able to play this week, and while his separated shoulder on his non-throwing arm may not impact his passing, it makes him much less likely to take a hit which hurts his running outlook significantly. On the Jets side, they are understandably sitting Zach Wilson after constant struggles, but the expectation that Mike White turns this offense around significantly feels misguided. White had one admirable game last season, but expectations should be tempered even in a positive matchup. This game feels likely to follow the low-scoring game script that most Jets games have followed of late.
Targets: David Montgomery, Bears Defense, Garret Wilson, and Michael Carter
Fades: Justin Fields and Mike White
Must-Owns: Jets Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Where do I begin? The game between the Chicago Bears and New York Jets is nothing but storylines! On one side, we have the Jets changing quarterbacks and turning to Mike White in desperate hope that he is more of the answer than what Zach Wilson was. I don’t see it. On the opposite side of the coin, we have an injury to Bears quarterback Justin Fields that might cause him to miss the game. I am never one to play the news as the main source for a pick, so I will be avoiding both offenses regardless of either team’s quarterback situation, use either defense in my lineup, and consider Fields if he plays.
Targets: Justin Fields — if he plays — and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Among a seasons’ worth of surprises, the Falcons and Commanders being heavily involved in the playoff picture this deep into the season definitely rank near the top of the list for most football fans. Washington has won five of their last six games, but the offense is hardly setting the world on fire. Taylor Heinicke has clearly been an improvement, but they have scored more than 23 points just one time in the aforementioned six game stretch. For the season, they sit at 23rd in the league in both yards and scoring, so even in a positive matchup, it is hard to commit a lot of expectations on them. Atlanta has lead one of the most consistent offenses in the league having reached 20 or more points in seven of their eleven games. The problem with their offense is despite their consistency, the upside is capped having only exceeded the 30-point mark one time, and their heavy rushing game plan limits the fantasy production significantly. It is very likely that the final score of this game is somewhere around 23-20, but even with that many points on the board, the fantasy upside is extremely limited here.
Targets: Cordarrelle Patterson, Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson Jr., and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Marcus Mariota
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It looks like the Washington Commanders finally found their quarterback and it is… the same quarterback they had last year. Strange how that happened. Even stranger how the franchise has been reluctant to commit to him. We could see why in a matchup against the Atlanta Falcons that, at first glance, appears to be one of the ‘easier’ games on Washington’s schedule. It’s not. The Falcons have been competitive throughout the year and run the ball extremely well. There’s a chance that Atlanta leans on that same approach and controls the clock from the start.
Targets: Marcus Mariota, Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London, Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson, Jr., and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Taylor Heinicke
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a week with many fantasy appealing games, this is simply not one of them. The Broncos offense is broken, and despite decent numbers, the matchup against the Panthers is not an easy one. Denver has exceeded 20 points only twice all season, and I am done chasing the next one until they give us a reason to believe again. The Panthers are now handing the reins to Sam Darnold in their endless search for consistent quarterback play. It is possible, if not likely, that Darnold is the best quarterback the Panthers have on their roster, but expecting him to step back into the starting role of an offense depleted of talent is an unfair expectation. Asking him to do it against arguably the best defense in the league is just that much more unreasonable. If you like being contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian, this is your game to target. Outside of that mindset, you can steer clear of this one without much hesitation.
Targets: Courtland Sutton, Broncos Defense, D’Onta Foreman, Panthers Defense
Fades: Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Two of my favorite quarterbacks from the last few years go head-to-head, and I am left torn. I feel like the parent that needs to wear a jersey that is half-Russell Wilson and half-Sam Darnold. I also feel like the parent that can’t watch because my two beloveds are poised to fail. The Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos have done absolutely nothing all season, but their respective defenses have been excellent at times — where Denver has been truly amazing. I do think there is an outside possibility that the Broncos suddenly pop for a big offensive day without warning, and this matchup may present that opportunity. If Denver’s defense really is thriving and creating short fields, we could see some scoring from the Broncos.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton, D’Onta Foreman, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Baltimore Ravens have gone from playing really well and not winning to playing just alright and winning every week. One thing that has likely played a role in their offensive struggles lately has been the injuries to Mark Andrews and Gus Edwards. With both guys seemingly back at full strength, I like the offense to start turning things around this week against a Jaguars defense that has allowed at least 20 points in five straight games and six of their last seven. The Jaguars offense continues to flash potential, and they quietly rank 9th in the league in total yards. They have brought us plenty of productive fantasy outings, and thanks to their limited weapons, we can continue leaning on the same few players.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., and Christian Kirk
Fades: Ravens Defense
Must-Owns: Mark Andrews
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been buying into the Jacksonville Jaguars all season, but a game against the Baltimore Ravens gives me pause. Normally, if I were to look for a high-scoring output on one end, I can justify the other team trying, at least, to match them. Therein lies the problem. The Ravens went from trying to win games with offense to trying to win games with defense. Over the first three weeks of the season, Baltimore scored at least 24 points all three times and reached 37 points in two-of-the-three. Since then, they have yet to score 30 points again and have only reached 27 points twice. Both teams have a few intriguing players, but I don’t see an all-out explosion of offense.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, Mark Andrews, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jr., and Christian Kirk
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels impossible, but somehow at the same time, the Chargers are both an impressive 5-5 and a disappointing 5-5. Their offense has maintained league-average numbers which feels like a massive win given the key injuries across their entire offense. The defense, however, continues to be a major liability each week as they have allowed over 300 yards of offense in all but one game. The Cardinals have largely been a mess across the board. It started in the offseason with the Kyler Murray contract dramas, the DeAndre Hopkins suspension, and it has continued through the year with on-field drama, injuries and lots of poor play. Despite all of that, a home game against this Chargers defense could be just what the doctor ordered. This game should provide enough offense to warrant our attention, the problem is that there are so many injuries to navigate that it will be hard to settle on targets until final updates come through.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Kyler Murray, and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The quarterback position for the Arizona Cardinals has been an absolute roller coaster in terms of the sports media and football-watching world, where everyone was collectively up in arms about Kyler Murray not gettin a contract extension immediately and then, halfway through the season, arguing that Murray should remain benched for Colt McCoy. I’m not sure how any franchise survives that for an extended period of time, and it’s why I expect the Cardinals to eventually crumble under the weight of these poor decisions. For this week, however, there should be a nice boost to the offense if Murray were to return after Arizona’s offense was embarrassed last week on national television. The Los Angeles Chargers have been beaten on the ground, so I would expect the Cardinals to look there for success. Los Angeles should be fine on offense, however, as Arizona has given up at least 30 points in four-of-its-last-five games. Even if we lower that ceiling a bit for the sake of regression, there is still room for at least one player from the Chargers to have a big day.
Targets: Kyler Murray, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Herbert, and Keenan Allen
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Las Vegas Raiders have three wins on the season, and they have come against the Broncos, Texans, and Broncos — not great. Their offense has basically been 100% dependent on either Davante Adams or Josh Jacobs depending on the week, and their defense is the definition of mediocre as they have allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense in just one game all year (in which they allowed 299 yards). The Seahawks have been the opposite type of surprise as Geno Smith has run one of the most efficient offenses in the league with the Seahawks ranking 7th in net yards per pass attempt and 5th in yards per rush. The season-long numbers don’t look great for Seattle’s defense, but they have allowed no more than 23 points in any of the last five games, so they seem to be turning things around after a rocky start to the year. There isn’t much about this matchup that I like for the Raiders, but with their offense being so dependent on two players, I have no problem rostering those two in any game script at this point.
Targets: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Kenneth Walker III
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to find someone who has ‘sold’ a team more than I have with the Las Vegas Raiders, but I actually find them and their offense in a sneaky spot on Sunday. The Seattle Seahawks have been outstanding compared to their preseason expectations — where, by comparison, the Raiders have been arguably the biggest disappointment in the league — but Seattle is returning from a bye and a 16-point output — the second-lowest of the season and worst since Week 2. There should be some nice positive correction for the Seahawks’ offense against a weak Raiders defense, but the reality is that I am expecting both offenses to deliver on Sunday. I will be looking here for many players to fill out my lineups.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Mack Hollins, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Coming into the season, the NFL was likely drooling over this matchup being on the schedule. Entering Week 12, this game has one of the biggest point spreads we will see all year. The Chiefs offense has been dominant the entire season, and their defense has been right around league average which is more than good enough to keep their team winning. For the Super Bowl Champion Rams, things could not be much uglier at the moment. The offensive line has been a mess all year, their run game has been non-existent, the defense’s limited depth has kept them from being the dominant group we are used to seeing, and with Cooper Kupp out, the offense’s hopes are all but lost. Asking either John Wolford or Bryce Perkins to step in and keep the Rams in this game is beyond unreasonable, so look for Kansas City to control this game from start to finish.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Jerrick McKinnon, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Travis Kelce, and Chiefs Defense
Fades: Rams Offense
Must-Owns: None, but the Chiefs offense should be scoring points all day long
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Big sigh. I would have loved to see a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams with both sides at their absolute best, but it isn’t going to happen. There is still potential for the Rams to find something on offense that, at least, makes the game interesting. Unfortunately for us as fans, that’s unlikely. The best chance the Rams have to compete is to limit the Chiefs’ offense and, while that is also a tall task, it’s not impossible given that some regression should eventually strike a Kansas City team that has scored a combined 57 points over the last two weeks.
Targets: Everyone from Kansas City
Fades: Everyone from Los Angeles
Must-Owns: None, but it is likely necessary to use someone from the Chiefs, and it might be worth the risk to try to target the one pass-catcher who will produce a big game
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Since adding Christian McCaffrey, things have gone about as smooth as could be for the San Francisco 49ers. Outside of the quarterback position, they are a nearly perfectly built football team. The problem for them is that the quarterback position matters more than any other position. The New Orleans Saints have not been good for the majority of the year, but they are exactly the type of team that feels ready to surprise a superior team on any given week. I am not sure why or how, but I can’t get away from the feeling that the 49ers are due for an ugly loss. Rather than try to count on the Saints offense to lead an upset, I am going to go with largely fading 49ers players and hoping the Saints defense can do the trick.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Saints Defense, and Christian McCaffrey
Fades: The rest of the 49ers offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Give the San Francisco 49ers credit. They have a plan of how they want to attack a game and they have methodically crafted their roster around said plan. Their defense is now the best in the league in yards-allowed-per-game while the offense remains heavily tilted toward the rushing attack. Obviously, that presents difficulties for the New Orleans Saints, but they do have the tenth-most yards-per-game on offense. In what has become a growing trend for me, despite ‘selling’ the Saints before this season and refusing to jump on the bandwagon that led to them being one of the hottest ‘sleeper’ picks, I keep seeing value with the team now that it has a losing record. There’s targets from both offenses in this matchup, even if only in moderation.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Andy Dalton, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Juwan Johnson
Fades: None, but I will be light on the 49ers’ offense
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For much of the year, we have been trying to hold on to some hope that Aaron Rodgers can right the ship, but it seems like it is just about time to abandon all hope. With that said, the past two weeks have had the Eagles show major concerns that we have been calling out all year, and they could easily have lost each of their last two games while playing quite poorly. Would it be shocking to see those struggles continue this week in a primetime game against the Packers? I don’t think so, but if I also have low expectations for the Packers, where does that leave us for this matchup? In general, I expect this game to be pretty similar to what we have seen from a lot of the primetime games this season, sluggish offense, tons of punts, and generally mediocre football. There will be some fantasy value in the end due to various injuries and limited weapons, but in looking at the primetime two-game slate, fading this game is likely contrarian, and I think it has great upside this week.
Targets: Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard, Packers Defense, Miles Sanders, DaVante Smith, and Eagles Defense
Fades: Jalen Hurts (compared to normal expectations)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It took me a long time to finally pronounce the Green Bay Packers “dead” but, now that I have, I am seeing nothing-but-value for them. The Philadelphia Eagles have been playing well for the entire season but we are starting to see some dip in production. With the football-watching world still expecting the Packers to crumble and the Eagles to surge, this is the type of imbalance that can lead to a big game compared to where the popularity will land. I’m going ‘all-in’ with the Packers on both sides of the ball in any slate that includes Green Bay.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Robert Tonyan, and Packers defense
Fades: Eagles running back and Eagles defense
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At first glance, these two teams combine for what feels like an easy fade, but if this season has taught us anything, it is that things are not always what they seem. The Steelers offense has been a big talking point all season, and while most of the discussion has been negative, there are some reasons for optimism. For starters, they have surpassed 300 yards of total offense in four consecutive games. A big reason for that has been their new-found ability to run the ball, having surpassed 100 yards on the ground in three consecutive games. Their ability to run the ball has allowed their offense to be more productive all around and helped them reach 30 points last week for the first time all season. The Colts benching of Matt Ryan was understandable, but clearly unsuccessful as in the two games without Ryan under center, the Colts scored just 19 points and lost both games. Since reinstating Ryan as the starter, the Colts have gone 1-1 scoring 41 total points and accumulating 699 yards of offense. The Steelers defense is not the dominant group we are accustomed to seeing, so there is reason to expect the Colts offense to continue its improved play. The icing on the cake is the ability to lean on a few key players for each offense as neither team is loaded with offensive depth.
Targets: Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and Parris Campbell
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As a football fan, it was exciting to see the Indianapolis Colts make a bold move that led to a win and one-point loss to the now-9-1 Eagles. As an analyst, this is not something I am excepting to continue. The Colts will have a decline soon and, if it happens on Monday Night Football, it gives the Pittsburgh Steelers one more chance to fight their way back to respectability. As a whole, this has been a completely forgettable season for Pittsburgh, but they had averaged exactly 15 points-per-game for the first eight weeks of the season before going on a bye. In the two weeks that followed, the Steelers scored a combined 50 points.
Targets: Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Steelers defense, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and Parris Campbell
Fades: Matt Ryan
Must-Owns: Najee Harris