Once again, there has been plenty of news moving the perception for both teams and players entering this weekend and, even if the salaries cannot react to it, we can see where the popularity is likely to land. We can absolutely take advantage of that for the slate of upcoming games.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game presents an interesting conundrum for us fantasy football players. Both offenses have been very effective of late with their respective game plans, and both defenses have been really struggling for the majority of the season. Normally, that type of setup means we are going to roster just about any offensive player who touches the field, but that isn’t the case for this game. The Bears and the Falcons are first and fourth in the leagues respectively in terms of rush attempt and rush yards. While those numbers are impressive, the output from the passing game is nowhere near as exciting, and pass heavy teams generate far more fantasy relevant players. There could definitely be offense, and value, in this game worth targeting, but the incredibly heavy run-offenses drag down the pace of the game and the teams’ likelihood to produce multiple fantasy relevant players.
Targets: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Tyler Allgeier
Fades: All pass-catchers
Must-Owns: None, but Montgomery feels close with Khalil Herbert out of the lineup
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There’s no denying that Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields has found his path to success via running the ball, and he is now growing in popularity as a DFS option. It makes sense, and I won’t try to talk anyone out of using him in a lineup on Sunday — although his salary is starting to rise and grow closer to aligning with his upside. The problem is that I have recommended his pass-catchers in recent weeks and, if Fields is going to keep running as much as he has, there is simply not enough passes to go around to allow most other players to thrive. On the other side of the game, the Atlanta Falcons completely bailed on their prior gameplays of endlessly feeding the ball to running back Cordarrelle Patterson, and it was to the point that I had to question his health status. I’m always willing to go back to him, but it wasn’t comforting to see the team have a more widespread approach — for DFS purposes anyway.
Targets: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Marcus Mariota, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Falcons defense
Fades: All pass-catchers
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the decision is entirely understandable, it is a little sad to know we are missing out on an opportunity to watch these two teams battle it out on a field covered in multiple feet of snow. With that said, the game will be played in Detroit in a dome which could be a blessing for a wavering Buffalo Bills offense. People are starting to question the Bills, but that feels like the perfect time to buy in. Things haven’t been pretty, but their offense is still as explosive as any in the league, and if Josh Allen can clean up the turnovers a bit, they will be right back in everyone’s good graces. I will happily buy a little low this week against a Browns defense that has been incredibly underwhelming all year long. The Browns offense will likely be forced to abandon their run-first game plan as they play from behind, so pass catchers may carry some value this week.
Targets: Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis
Fades: Nick Chubb
Must-Owns: Josh Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The game between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns was moved because of the snowstorm hitting Buffalo, and there is a ripple effect. For starters, there was absolutely going to be a misunderstanding among those building DFS lineups where the expectation of snow was going to lead to an expectation of a lower score. That wasn’t likely. The snow was going to hit prior to the game and probably not impact the actual on-field play. Now, the players shift to the dome of Detroit, and we can expect popularity to soar. As always, we can’t get away from Cleveland’s running backs, but I now assume Bills quarterback Josh Allen and his pass-catchers will be some of the most popular plays on Sunday. I can’t argue against it.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Amari Cooper
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Eagles finally sputtered last week which allows the entire football world to move on from the undefeated conversation. Last week, against a mediocre opponent, felt like the first true adversity this team has faced, and they didn’t seem up to the task all night long. The major question will be how do they rebound after that performance and was last week a sign that they simply are not the team many people believed them to be. This week is a perfect test for them against a Colts team that seemed rejuvenated last week with Matt Ryan back under center, and Jeff Saturday running the show. I still have my concerns and doubts about the Colts, and my gut is telling me the Eagles bounce back fairly comfortably this week. I also expect them to lean a bit more on Miles Sanders after inexplicably forgetting he existed for most of last week’s game.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown (assuming he is healthy), DeVonta Smith (assuming he is healthy), Michael Pittman Jr., and Parris Campbell
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: By the time last week’s game started, I was convinced that Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor would see an epic workload. His new, interim head coach was a former offensive lineman and the Colts directly saw the impact of Taylor in last year’s winning record. I am a little more tentative in the encore, although the Philadelphia Eagles have one of the worst run defenses in the league — compared to a frightening pass defense. If the Colts can’t get their running game going, then Philadelphia will be able to lead its typical attack as it has for almost every game this year. That does involve a somewhat capped ceiling — the Eagles have scored 30 points only twice this season — but the usual playmakers are solid targets again.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Jr., Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but I will almost certainly use someone from Philadelphia in most lineups
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite some ugly moments for both of these teams this year, the AFC East rivals enter Week 11 (fresh off of a bye week) with winning records and firmly in the hunt for a playoff spot. Life for Zach Wilson has been anything but pretty against most opponents, but he has especially struggled against the Patriots, and even coming off a bye week, I don’t see a way that that changes drastically this week. I fully expect both teams to lean heavily on their running back duos and hope their defense plays well enough to get a win. A game featuring two teams with insignificant passing output coupled with solid defenses is a great recipe for a largely fade-able game
Targets: Michael Carter, James Robinson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, and Patriots Defense
Fades: Zach Wilson and all pass-catchers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m all for being ‘contrarian’ when we can, but I just don’t see a path to a big offensive day from either the New England Patriots or New York Jets on Sunday. Both teams have formed solid defenses, and they are each coming off a bye in which they had extra time to prepare. I’m always interested in using a one-off player in a game like this, so I would dig for a singular option, but I just can’t justify more than that.
Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Carter, Garrett Wilson, and both defenses
Fades: Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Life for the reigning Super Bowl Champions could not seem much bleaker at the moment. Matthew Stafford may return from his concussion this week, but he returns to a struggling offense that is now without Cooper Kupp for the foreseeable future, and that is bad news. Kupp’s absence opens up a ton of touches for other players, but added touches don’t mean much if the offense can’t move the ball. The Saints defense has been a bit better of late, and they should be able to handle the Kupp-less Rams offense. The Saints offense was cruising with Andy Dalton for a while, but the combined 23 points in their last two games is definitely cause for concern. I don’t love the odds of Dalton regaining form this week against a Rams defense that has the weight of their team on their backs. This game has all the makings of a defensive struggle.
Targets: Tyler Higbee, Rams Defense, Alvin Kamara, and Saints Defense
Fades: Matthew Stafford and Andy Dalton
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The major storyline for the Los Angeles Rams is the loss of wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and that has tremendous impact on the DFS world. Kupp was as close to an automatic plug-and-play as it gets and, while his absence should allow others to step up in his place, it’s difficult to pinpoint which pass-catcher gains the biggest boost. The overall road for the Rams has been rocky anyway, and the team’s defense has been its biggest strength. It will have to lead the way once again, and it has a decent matchup with the New Orleans Saints.
Targets: Allen Robinson II, Van Jefferson, Rams defense, and Alvin Kamara
Fades: Mostly everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Say you will about the New York Giants, but it is hard to argue a lot with results when you are sitting at 7-2 on the year. Playing against the Lions presents another great opportunity for a win, but that doesn’t mean we need to be invested for fantasy purposes. Outside of Saquon Barkley, this Giants offense has been largely underwhelming, and the volume simply isn’t there for any other skill position player. Daniel Jones’ running ability is a weapon, but outside of those two, Giants players all come with major question marks each week — even in a favorable matchup like this one. The Giants defense has looked good this year, but it is worth noting that no team in the league is allowing more rush yards per attempt than the Giants. With D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams being two of the best weapons the Lions have behind their strong offensive line, look for them to lean on the ground game this week as they try to stay in this game with the Giants.
Targets: D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Darius Slayton
Fades: Jared Goff
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It would be quite the welcomed sight if the Detroit Lions were going to promise to keep playing frenetic, high-scoring games where we can load up on players from both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, I doubt the New York Giants would agree, as they have won most of their games by using a methodical approach centered around running back Saquon Barkley. All options are open, though, and, despite the high risk, targeting players from both offenses could produce an outstanding reward.
Targets: Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Darius Slayton
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I admire the Panthers commitment over the past few season to try to find their quarterback of the future, but going into each and every game not knowing who will be under center has to take a toll on a team’s psyche. Baker Mayfield is back under center this week, but it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if Sam Darnold made an appearance at some point in this game. All in all, this Panthers offense is impossible to trust unless you are counting on D’Onta Foreman in a positive game script. Considering their matchup against a Ravens team coming off their bye week, I am not expecting a positive game script for them, so even Foreman is out for me. The Ravens have been one of my favorite picks all season, and I see them controlling this game fairly easily from start to finish against the weakest opponent they have faced all year.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake (especially if Gus Edwards remains out), Devin Duvernay, Mark Andrews (or Isaiah Likely if Andrews is out), and Ravens Defense
Fades: Panthers Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: An injury to P.J. Walker has the Carolina Panthers turned back to Baker Mayfield under center in the team’s next game against the Baltimore Ravens. In terms of storylines, we have the familiarity of Mayfield and Baltimore, where they faced off plenty of times during Mayfield’s tenure in Cleveland. There’s sneaky potential there, but it’s just as likely that the Ravens know how to shut him down and can do so fairly easily. The Panthers’ defense had been its strength at various points of the season, but we saw teams like Cincinnati demolish it when the game started spiraling out-of-control. There’s a path for a similar outcome in this non-conference game.
Targets: Everyone from Baltimore, including the defense, and D’Onta Foreman
Fades: Everyone else from Carolina
Must-Owns: None
Washington Commanders at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It sounds wrong, and it feels wrong, but the Washington Commanders are one massive 4th quarter choking away from being on a five game winning streak and sitting at 6-4 on the season. Even with that blown lead against the Vikings, Taylor Heinicke has Washington sitting at 5-5 with an extremely winnable game ahead of them this week. Washington showed us last week that they can, and will, lean heavily on the run game when the situation calls for it, and boy does it call for it this week. A matchup against a very weak Texans offense should put Washington in a positive game script throughout this game. When you add in the fact that no team in the league allows more rushing yards or fantasy points to running backs, expect the Commanders to control this game on the ground throughout it.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Commanders Defense, and Dameon Pierce
Fades: Davis Mills
Must-Owns: Brian Robinson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Washington Commanders continue to do everything they can to outthink themselves, but they finally landed on the decision to name Taylor Heinicke the starting quarterback for Sunday’s game against the Houston Texans. Great. By virtue of starting against Houston, Heinicke and his offensive playmakers get a boost. The problem? Washington still doesn’t score consistently enough on offense, and there’s a chance that it puts together a dud, even in this matchup. I won’t go as far as overloading my roster with players from Houston, but I definitely won’t avoid them completely.
Targets: Davis Mills, Dameon Pierce, Brandin Cooks, Taylor Heinicke, Brian Robinson, Jr., Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and both defenses
Fades: None, but I won’t too many offensive players from this game
Must-Owns: None
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In what was supposed to be an absolute juggernaut of a division in the AFC West, these two teams are simply not holding their weight. Speaking of not holding their weight, the Broncos boast the league’s number one ranked scoring defense, but unfortunately they are dragging around the league’s 32nd ranked scoring offense. The Broncos have just one game all season in which the game has reached 40 total points which is simply astounding. Coincidentally enough, that game came against the Raiders in what was a 55 point total, but that is not enough for me to be committing this game. The Broncos have been fantasy killers all season long, and with the Raiders playing without Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, I don’t see any reason to expect them to break the Broncos defense down.
Targets: Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton (especially if Jerry Jeudy is out), and Broncos Defense
Fades: Derek Carr and Russell Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The leading story for the game between the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders is an argument that I have been making for years. That is, Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels has no business being a head coach right now. His team is a pathetic 2-7 and will now take on one of the best defenses in the league. I simply can’t recommend anyone from the Raiders’ offense other than wide receiver Davante Adams — who can single-handedly take over a game and carry a lineup in any point-per-reception format. It’s also difficult to ask the Broncos to do anything on offense, and I think I have reached the point where I must give up on the team’s former potential. Can someone from Denver slip into the winning lineup? Of course. I just won’t invest too heavily in that outcome.
Targets: Davante Adams, Russell Wilson, Melvin Gordon III, Courtland Sutton, and both defenses
Fades: Derek Carr
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am officially at a loss with the Minnesota Vikings. No matter what happens, they keep finding ways to win games. They had one of the most miraculous catches you’ll ever see, an 80-plus yard rushing touchdown, and a QB sneak turned fumble recovery touchdown last week to sneak out a victory over the Bills. I cannot accept this as sustainable, but all that matters is getting into the playoffs, and they are all but locked into a spot already. The Cowboys are fresh off a gut wrenching loss to a Packers team that apparently can’t beat anybody other than Mike McCarthy. With these two teams, I have no idea what to expect in terms of a final score, but the volume for both offense’s players is fairly predictable which makes my fantasy targets easy to land on even with the outcome being a mystery.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: Vikings Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings are two of the teams most driven by recency bias, where Dallas could have easily won its game and Minnesota arguably should have lost. The results were flipped, and it leads to a larger disparity in expectations than there should be. Specifically, Dallas’ offense should find success against a Vikings defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards-per-game. Minnesota’s offense has a relatively difficult task against the Cowboys’ defense, but Dallas has allowed at least 26 points in three-of-its-last-four games.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Tillen, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but Pollard might slide into this category if Ezekiel Elliott is inactive again — which doesn’t seem likely as of this writing
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Through two games without Ja’Marr Chase, we have seen wildly different outcomes for the Cincinnati Bengals. In their first outing without their star wide receiver, the Bengals looked completely lost against a mediocre Browns team. The next week, they looked much better as Joe Mixon absolutely dismantled the hapless Carolina Panthers. Now, the Bengals get to take aim at getting revenge on the Steelers for that crazy Week 1 matchup. Unfortunately for them, they have to deal with T.J. Watt being back, and his presence last week helped Pittsburgh allow just ten points against the Saints which was their best mark of the season. I don’t expect the Steelers defense to dominate the way they did in Week 1, but I do expect them to keep their team in this one even if the offense continues to struggle for the most part.
Targets: Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Steelers Defense
Fades: Joe Burrow
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I think it’s important to look back to Opening Day and remember how the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers battled in one of the wildest matchups of the year — even to date. The key to that game was Cincinnati’s unprecedented five giveaways, where the Bengals still forced overtime. Pittsburgh’s defense absolutely gained a boost with linebacker T.J. Watt returning, but Cincinnati has to believe that it can move the ball as long is it doesn’t give it away at an impossible pace. That’s likely since the Bengals have only committed five turnovers total since Week 1.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and George Pickens
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is a tough one for me to feel comfortable with when trying to predict an outcome. On one hand, the Chiefs feel like they should dominate as the Chargers have been largely treading water trying to survive countless injuries while Kansas City continues to dominate. On the other hand, here are the Chiefs outcomes against the Chargers since Justin Herbert was the starter: three point victory, six point victory (in overtime), six point loss, 17 point loss, three point victory (in overtime). Justin Herbert always finds a way to keep his team in a game against their division rivals, and even if they don’t have the depth right now to pull off the upset, I will happily go down betting on Herbert to keep his team competitive.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Kadarious Toney, Travis Kelce, Justin Herbert, Any healthy Chargers wide receiver, and Gerald Everett (assuming he is healthy)
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Austin Ekeler
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If there’s one storyline to follow for the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, it’s that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has never lost to the Chiefs by more than six points. That is likely to be a popular stance, however, and I would think that the more ‘contrarian’ approach would be either to use the Chiefs’ defense or fully load up on players from Kansas City with an emphasis on targeting the top pass-catcher — which, in itself, is a risk outside of tight end Travis Kelce. Otherwise, you can follow what is likely to be the most common approach: a balanced attack between both teams.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Jerrick McKinnon, Kadarious Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs defense, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, whichever Chargers wide receiver is active, and Gerald Everett
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals – in Mexico
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Normally I look at games being played on an international stage as a sort of equalizer as both teams are wildly outside of their usual schedule and routines. Despite that general belief, I have a hard time buying into the Cardinals competing in this game given their massive struggles throughout most of this season. The Cardinals defense has had wild ups and downs throughout the season, but more importantly, their “air raid” offense has been everything but successful this year. The Cardinals offense is 31st in the league in net yards per pass attempt, 20th in yards per rush attempt, is now without Zach Ertz, dealing with a hamstring injury for Kyler Murray that may keep him out of a second straight game, and they are facing the league’s number one ranked defense in yards allowed. I don’t see a path to this Cardinals team putting up a fight in this Mexico City matchup, so lean heavily on 49ers players here.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: The rest of the Cardinals offense
Must-Owns: 49ers Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the top comments that precedes games being played in Mexico is the altitude of the venue. It is actually the highest elevation at which a National Football League game has been played. The general assumption is that this helps kickers while causing players to become exhausted more easily. I’m not sure if there is a trend to be found in the numbers, but it’s worth exploring the final scores from the prior four games. They are as follows: 31-14 in 2005, 27-20 in 2016, 33-8 in 2017, and 24-17 in 2019. The two takeaways I would personally make from those scores are that the overall point total is not abnormally high — and, in some cases, is somewhat low — and that we rarely see both teams putting up points. In fact, the highest score from the losing side was only 20 points. If I’m building for a Showdown lineup, I will probably make it a point to use four or five players from the team I expect to win and only one or two from the losing side — possibly with the kicker. In terms of the actual matchup, we know what we are getting from the San Francisco 49ers, and that is a relentless rushing attack. The Arizona Cardinals are not yet sure of which quarterback will start for them, but they face an incredibly difficult task against the league’s best defense. As we just saw in the numbers, it is not ideal to fall behind in this matchup’s location.
Targets: Everyone from San Francisco and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: Everyone from Arizona
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey