Once again, we have a slightly smaller list of games for the main slate and Primetime thanks to an early kickoff in Europe. More importantly, though, we are filled with games that depend on injury news. If anything, this gives us the opportunity to take advantage of lineups that are too conservative.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 10 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have said it before, and I will say it again: the Minnesota Vikings are miles worse than their record indicates. During their current six game winning streak, every single game has been decided by one possession, and many of those games could — or even should — have resulted in losses. I always give credit to teams who find ways to win games, but what Minnesota is doing right now is not sustainable and cannot continue leading to victories when the opponents get tougher. Enter the Buffalo Bills who are coming off a rude awakening after last week’s loss to the Jets. Obviously my confidence in Buffalo will waiver to some degree if Josh Allen is unable to play, but either way, I think the Bills find a way to win this game and knock the Vikings down a peg back to reality.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Josh Allen — if he plays — Stefon Diggs, and Bills Defense
Fades: Kirk Cousins
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There’s no other storyline to follow for the game between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings other than the health of quarterback Josh Allen. It seems as if Buffalo is being especially protective of their information, but we will obviously see the result in time. If Allen is playing, he’s starting for me in a lineup. I would have to expect others to back off because of the uncertainty, and I would love that type of exposure over the field. Otherwise, I expect the Vikings’ offense to run its typical style through its few key players, and I’m not overly concerned with the Bills’ defense — even though there is a legitimate argument to be made that it steps up in Allen’s absence.
Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary — who would get a boost without Allen — Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Vikings defense — if Allen doesn’t play
Fades: None
Must-Owns: T.J. Hockenson
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Justin Fields has become a fantasy football machine of late after a horrendous start to the season. The fact that Fields has eclipsed 200 yards passing in only one game this season is extremely troubling for a quarterback expected to be the franchise’s anchor for years, but his running ability completely overshadows the terrible impact on the passing game for fantasy football purposes. Fields has five consecutive games of 17 or more fantasy points including 24 or more in his last three games. I know the Lions just shut down the Packers, but that doesn’t mean much these days, and I have no problem continuing to attack the league’s worst defense. The Lions offense should also be firmly in play against a Bears defense that is reeling at the moment having allowed 84 points total over the past two games. These teams are not good, but this game offers a ton of fantasy football upside.
Targets: Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None, but this game feels like one to invest in heavily
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The sports media has converted back to loving Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields after formerly deciding that he could not be a quarterback in the National Football League, and I am curious as to how this will play out in the fantasy world. Then again, we know the answer. Fields’ value skyrockets in DFS because of his rushing ability and, if the Detroit Lions can’t stop him — they can’t stop anybody — then he is clearly a player worth targeting. I’m also interested in using at least one of his pass-catchers, even if I don’t actually go with Fields — his popularity is actually too high for me right now based on my aforementioned comment about the collective mind-change of the sports media. Detroit’s offense has been a far cry from what we saw through the first few weeks of the season, but Chicago’s defense is one of the least efficient in the league. I’m fine with using players from the Lions.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, D’Andre Swift — who remains a borderline ‘must-play’ for me — Jamaal Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tennessee Titans are whatever Derrick Henry allows them to be. Obviously, the passing game has taken a hit with Malik Willis filling in for Ryan Tannehill, but even when Tannehill was playing, the offense had little impact coming from the passing game. The Titans are going to do everything they can to play good defense and let Henry win them games. Henry is coming off five consecutive 100-yard rushing games, and against a Denver defense that is far weaker against the run than the pass, it is a pretty good bet to expect him to hit that mark again.The real question in this game is what will see from the Denver offense? Russell Wilson showed some signs of life in their Week 8 victory in London over the pesky Jaguars, but the overall product was still far from pretty. Is it possible that their bye week will be enough to help turn their season around, or is this offense simply not able to make it work? We will find out soon enough, but I am tempted to buy in one more time (yes, I am a glutton for punishment) against a Titans defense that is allowing the third most passing yards per game.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Greg Dulcich, and Derrick Henry
Fades: Broncos Running Backs and the rest of the Titans Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The presence of quarterback Ryan Tannehill means quite a lot to the Tennessee Titans. They will face one of the league’s best defenses in the Denver Broncos — who are coming off a bye week — and cannot feel comfortable sending out rookie Malik Willis for a second consecutive game. Either way, Denver’s defense is in position to shine, where only running back Derrick Henry warrants any amount of confidence because of his typical volume. I want to expect the Broncos to have used their time away from football to better craft an offensive gameplan and, if I have multiple lineups, one will be devoted to that expectation. Otherwise, I’m staying away from Denver.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Melvin Gordon III, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Broncos defense, and Derrick Henry
Fades: Everyone else from Tennessee
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Kansas City Chiefs are an automatic fantasy target each week. The problem with the Chiefs is that outside of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who are no-brainers every week, you have up to 10 other offensive weapons that may or may not be involved in the game plan for that week. The moving target for those players make them an infuriating team to chase, but with their ability to put up yards and points against anyone, it is hard to ever argue against taking a chance on Chiefs players. The Jaguars continue to be an up-and-down team, but they have weekly upside, especially when the situation is in their favor. Playing against the highest scoring offense in the league that boasts the 20th rank defense in terms of yards and points is a situation that bodes well for the Jaguars.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I was pleasantly surprised to see that the Jacksonville Jaguars have competed in every game they play. I used the word “pleasantly” both because I had picked Jacksonville to be a ‘sleeper’ team this year and because “competing” with the Kansas City Chiefs usually means bringing offense to the game. Kansas City will score but, if Jacksonville is fighting alongside the Chiefs, then the Jaguars’ main players will all see their ceilings raised.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jr., Christian Kirk, Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Cleveland Browns have the 7th ranked scoring offense and the 25th ranked scoring defense.The Miami Dolphins have the 9th ranked scoring offense and the 26th ranked scoring defense. Sometimes we can find reasons to overthink things in fantasy football, but those numbers are so glaring that I refuse to overthink it. Seemingly everytime either of these teams is part of a football game, points are benign scored on every possession. With both of them in this game together, I am willing to bet on something similar happening again. The beauty for both teams is you can pretty much always count on the same few players to lead the way, and those are guys that are easy plug-ins every single week.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Tyreek Hill
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: New week, same chorus. The Cleveland Browns are back in action after a bye, and it gives me another chance to point out how effective they have been offensively. The same comment as always applies where both running backs are the focal point of the offense and should be targeted accordingly, while I also need to mention that the defense is below-average everywhere. The Miami Dolphins have their two dynamic wide receivers, and I see no reason to expect either one of them to fail in this setting.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper, Harrison Bryant, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but it is probably necessary to use at least one player from this game in most lineups
Houston Texans at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are not many teams in the league that you can count on them rolling with an almost 100% gameplan week in and week out, so when you have that type of predictability, it is always nice for fantasy football purposes. These are two teams that you can lean heavily into the players that you know will be the focal point of their offenses: the running backs. The Texans’ entire offense at this point is to give the ball to Dameon Pierce and hope he makes a big play — which he does quite regularly. The Giants gameplan isn’t much different as Saquon Barkley is the soul of this offense. The only difference is the Giants have the added threat of Daniel Jones running the ball as well. With all of that, and the fact that both offenses rank outside of the top 20 in scoring, this is not a game to be targeting heavily.
Targets: Dameon Pierce, Daniel Jones, and Saquon Barkley
Fades: Davis Mills
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Giants are yet another team coming off a bye, and I’m personally interested to see what they have implemented during that time away from the game. Their matchup with the Houston Texans couldn’t be better for a return to action — they rank third-worst in yards-per-game both on offense and defense — and the Giants just put forth their worse scoring output of the season. Perhaps the best news is that New York runs so much of its offense through one player — running back Saquon Barkley — that we don’t even need to speculate as to what we can expect for DFS purposes. On the other side of the game, Texans running back Dameon Pierce has a great head-to-head matchup against the league’s second-worst defense in yards-per-carry. There is a chance that the game flow forces Houston to pass instead of run, but Pierce has still carried the ball 88 times over the Texans’ last four games — three of which resulted in losses. He also had ten receptions in that same span.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Wan’Dale Robinson, Davis Mills, Dameon Pierce, Rex Burkhead, and Brandin Cooks — if he plays
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For the past month or so, the Saints offense looked consistently good, but last week was a harsh reminder of why Andy Dalton is no longer a starting quarterback in this league. A matchup with the Steelers may seem like a bounce back opportunity, but I have a hard time betting against the Steelers coming off a bye week and that is only amplified by the expected return of T.J. Watt. With the struggles of the Steelers offense throughout the year, I am also having a hard time expecting a ton from them. The Saints defense has had their struggles, but they have allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in three consecutive games, and that is enough to keep me off the “potential” of the Pittsburgh offense.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Saints Defense, Diontae Johnson, and George Pickens
Fades: Andy Dalton
Must-Owns: Steelers Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve struggled with what I expect to see from the Pittsburgh Steelers as they return from their bye, but it’s hard to imagine a team led by head coach Mike Tomlin having two weeks to prepare and remaining complacent. It won’t happen. Maybe Pittsburgh really can’t break through against a New Orleans Saints defense that ranks 11th-best in yards-per-game, but I may take a chance with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett and at least one pass-catcher. The opposite matchup is just as interesting, as the Steelers are expected to have linebacker T.J. Watt back from an injury. His importance cannot be overstated, and it’s enough where I would stay away from most of the Saints’ offense.
Targets: Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Steelers defense, and Alvin Kamara
Fades: Andy Dalton
Must-Owns: None, but there is decent value in this game
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This may be one of the ugliest matchups of the week despite some high-end talent. The Raiders have managed to blow three different 17 point leads on their way to a 2-6 start in the Josh McDaniel era. The Colts have pulled the plug on the Matt Ryan experiment, scored 29 total points in their last three games, fired their Head Coach and replaced him with someone with zero coaching experience. It is hard to have high expectations for Sam Ehlinger at the moment, but with Jonathan Taylor healthy, and without competition for touches, I like the idea of buying low on Taylor in a positive matchup. With Darren Waller on the shelf, you can expect the Raiders offense to continue running heavily through Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. Even when they aren’t playing well, those two remain worth targeting thanks to their volume.
Targets: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams
Fades: Sam Ehlinger
Must-Owns: Jonathan Taylor
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Obviously, the main storyline for the game between the Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas is the debut of Colts head coach Jeff Saturday. If anything, we have to expect that Indianapolis won’t get too cute with its gameplan and will, instead, lean on the same playmakers it has utilized all season. The problem is that said “playmakers” are either injured or ineffective. I’m sure there’s some value to be had here — and maybe quarterback Sam Ehlinger delivers thanks to volume — but it’s hard to dive too heavily into the Colts’ player pool. The real targets would obviously come from the Raiders’ offense, but Indianapolis’ defense might be the more effective part of the team. They may not be able to, but the Colts will try to win this game simply by trying to prevent Las Vegas’ offense from getting started.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor — who might actually be a ‘must-play’ — Colts defense, Derek Call, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Mack Hollins, and Raiders defense
Fades: Sam Ehlinger and his pass-catchers
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this point, there is really no reason to consider the Packers a worthy fantasy team to target unless you are looking to be contrarian. The offense has been as bad as could be, and has also been dealing with a slew of injuries that are definitely not helping matters. Put this offense against a Dallas defense that gets as much pressure on the quarterback as any team in the league, and there I can’t find a justification to roster Packers players anymore. The Cowboys are coming off their bye week and playing against a seriously banged up Packers defense. The game flow is likely to heavily favor a Cowboys run game, but if their defense takes care of business how they should, the whole offense has a chance to put forth a big game this week.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, and Cowboys Defense
Fades: Packers Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Green Bay Packers’ struggles have been featured and highlighted for weeks. At the same time, there has been the smallest glimmer of hope that Green Bay can turn its season around and make a run at the playoffs. That glimmer has been snuffed out, and the Packers now need to host the Dallas Cowboys coming off a bye week. I would expect most of the football-watching world to look for another disappointing offensive performance from Green Bay, but that should lead to outstanding leverage with DFS lineups that include players from the Packers. I will probably go that route somewhere, even though it is admittedly a risk. The bye week may have actually slowed Dallas’ momentum, but the most important takeaway from it should be the extra time for quarterback Dak Prescott to keep healing. He is worth a look if you do expect a big win from the Cowboys.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Allen Lazard, Tony Pollard — if Ezekie Elliott doesn’t play — and CeeDee Lamb
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This Los Angeles Rams offense is nothing like the Super Bowl winning offense we watched all last season. The Rams currently sit at 31st in yards and 29th in points scored making them officially one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Add in a banged up Matthew Stafford (not that that is anything particularly new) and my confidence is not very high at the moment. The Cardinals offense has been league average in terms of total yards and points, but they rank 31st in the league in net yards per pass attempt, and that tells a clearer story about their season and general struggles. Having DeAndre Hopkins back has helped, but Kyler Murray playing through a leg injury isn’t going to do any wonders for this struggling offense. Despite plenty of high-end talent, and tons of desperation for both teams, I am finding it hard to want much ownership in this NFC West matchup.
Targets: DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Ertz, Cooper Kupp, and Rams Defense
Fades: Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As if it weren’t bad enough to follow the injury news of one quarterback, we are now looking at both signal-callers from the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals dealing with issues. I always write that the loss of a quarterback for a single game does little to deter me from keeping with my initial expectation, but that doesn’t always extend to the fantasy world. There are times when the quarterback’s absence still leads to a win, but not via the high-powered output we would have otherwise seen. More importantly, neither the Rams nor Cardinals have proven to be treasure troves of DFS talent outside of each top wide receiver, but history has shown that a high-flying, back-and-forth affair is possible. I won’t avoid the game entirely, and I might take a chance going a little heavier if we find out that Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray are both cleared to play without limitations.
Targets: Whichever quarterback is healthy, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Ertz, Cooper Kupp, and either defense — if the opposing quarterback is out
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but Hopkins or Kupp might slide into this category if their respective quarterback is active and healthy
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The San Francisco 49ers defense has been elite this season, but in looking at their schedule, they haven’t exactly faced many high-end offenses or quarterbacks. Their one premier matchup saw them allow 44 points to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The big question for me is do the Chargers actually have an elite offense at this stage of the season? Justin Herbert is elite, and Austin Ekeler is playing well, but the rest of the offense is generally lacking with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen out of the lineup. Despite their inconsistencies, I like betting on great quarterbacks when people may be down on them. I will be playing some Justin Herbert especially in the late afternoon slate as this game could easily turn out to be the highest scoring of the late games. A big part of that is thanks to the Chargers defense ranking 30th in scoring and facing a 49ers offense that is loaded with talent with the addition of Christian McCaffrey.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen (if active), Joshua Palmer, Michael Bandy (if Allen is out), Gerald Everett, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
Fades: 49ers Defense
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers is the obvious ‘must-start’ target of the week. His new team is coming off a bye week in which he had plenty of additional time to learn the playbook and will face a Los Angeles Chargers defense that ranks last in the league in yards-per-carry. It’s the ideal setup, and I will use McCaffrey in every lineup I make. Because of that lopsided matchup — and with San Francisco’s desire to run the ball — I might simply build around McCaffrey and Eli Mitchell — assuming he is back and playing at full strength. I usually won’t avoid the Chargers’ offense altogether, but this is truly an unforgiving matchup against the top-ranked defense in the league in yard-per-game. The only potential is that the 49ers scoring via their ground game will push Los Angeles in a position where it needs to throw more. The volume may be enough to carry quarterback Justin Herbert into a winning lineup.
Targets: Justin Herbert — although not with conviction — Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen — if healthy — Joshua Palmer — if Allen is out — Gerald Everett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and 49ers defense
Fades: None, but I can see myself avoiding Herbert
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every single week I debate how I want to handle the Eagles because I still don’t know what I think about them. On one hand, their offense and defense both rank in the top four of the league in yards and scoring which is elite. On the other hand, through eight games, they have only played two teams that have a winning record on the year and those two games were against Primetime Kirk Cousins and Cooper Rush. That information puts a big asterisk on their impressive first half, but the second half doesn’t get much tougher, and that applies to this matchup as well. Taylor Heinicke has helped the Commanders be quite competitive in the past month, but they are hardly a team that is littered with high-end talent or the type of game changing players that can help beat this Eagles team. Overall, despite my doubts, the Eagles are simply the better team, and they should be able to control this matchup fairly comfortably.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert
Fades: Taylor Heinicke
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I usually like to find some ‘contrarian’ angle on a Primetime game — and there is an obvious one simply via the Washington Commanders winning — but basically every trend points to the same outcome. The Philadelphia Eagles will score, but probably not explode past 30 points, while Washington will finish somewhere in the range of 10-20 points. Of course, how all of this unfolds is much trickier to predict, and that’s the goal of this column. The ‘contrarian’ answer, therefore, is to take a stand with one of the running backs in the game — since enough touch the ball — and build around that route. Otherwise, the obvious targets lead the way.
Targets: Taylor Heinicke — if going fully ‘contrarian’ — Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson, Jr., Terry McLaurin, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Eagles defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Jalen Hurts