We always highlight when it is likely that we will land on a certain type of build. Such is the case for this weekend, as it is almost impossible to make a lineup without using a ‘stars-and-scrubs’ approach. That’s mainly because of how highly-priced some of the clear top targets are. We are certainly buying in and paying a premium, but there might be an edge to taking a balanced approach. The problem is that you may have to simply pay up for some names and deal with the popularity that comes with them.
Based on our expected Week 18 DFS game flow analysis and Week 18 Games to Target published earlier, we can carry our thoughts into actual lineup positions. The long list of players that fit the requirements set forth by the projected flow of the game was cut dramatically by the requirements set forth by salaries.
Below are Sporfolio’s DFS Week 18 Plays:
Quarterback
Josh Allen – While we will certainly need to balance the risks that comes with teams resting their players, it is almost impossible to envision a scenario in which Josh Allen doesn’t play the bulk of the snaps for the Buffalo Bills. The Bills need either a win or a Patriots loss to clinch the AFC East — so, in the event that New England is inexplicably trailing by a large margin late in their game, it’s possible, but unlikely, that Buffalo makes a move with its players — where we should expect the best of Allen. He has dominated weaker teams all season, and the New York Jets head to Buffalo with the worst defense in the league — in both yards and points allowed. Allen threw for 366 yards in his last matchup with New York, and his team went on to win 45-17.
Trevor Lawrence – Simply put, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars have been a massive disappointment this year, but it’s clear that Lawrence is currently not the main problem with the team. He has been incredibly inconsistent, though, and it would be a nice step for his early development to end the year on a positive note. Thankfully for us, he has the right setup for DFS purposes. His team will either be trailing for the bulk of the game — in which his volume increases — or he will have found a path to success where Jacksonville can stay competitive while Lawrence quietly puts up numbers. He is also priced so low that it allows for other big names — and bigger salaries — elsewhere in a lineup.