Another week, another set of movement in the schedule. This time, we actually get Thursday night’s game pushed into Monday where we not only have a doubleheader, but also gained a game in the overall Sunday-Monday slate. That is, if no more changes occur.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 6 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It may sound crazy, but the Houston Texans are going to win this football game. The Titans are coming off an important Tuesday night victory, but one that was filled with emotion after two weeks of craziness. Now, they are settling back into a routine — albeit on a much shorter week — and may very well take this lesser opponent for granted. That seems like a mistake after Houston finally looked competitive on both sides of the ball last week. I’m expecting that to continue and for the Texans to upset the Titans and bring the balance of the AFC South back to a more familiar situation in which everyone is seemingly still alive.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, Brandin Cooks, A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith
Fades: Derrick Henry
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I loved the idea of leaning on the Tennessee Titans in their Week 5 return-to-action, but the real play was targeting them for offense. The same is true in Week 6, as the Houston Texans’ defense has not been able to slow anyone down except the hapless Jaguars. Houston’s offense is firmly in-play, however, as the Titans’ defense still ranks at the bottom of the league in most major yardage categories. Specifically, Tennessee is allowing the most yards-per-rush in the league, and the fourth-most yards-per-game. I don’t see why the Texans wouldn’t thrive offensively.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Deshaun Watson, and David Johnson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I can see myself gravitating here for a one-off if needed
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After all of our talk about the Bengals finding ways to be competitive, they go out and put a complete dud on the board last week. Now, the Bengals have to face a Colts defense that has only allowed one team all season to exceed 300 yards of offense. I don’t see this being the game the Bengals’ offense finally has their big outbreak.
Targets: Tyler Boyd, Jonathan Taylor, and Nyheim Hines
Fades: The Rest of the Bengals’ Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In writing about the game between the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals, I kept landing on the same thought: the Colts have an answer for everything the Bengals will try to do. This doesn’t mean that certain elements won’t work, but it severely lowers the chances that Cincinnati can control the game in any way. I’m not sold on the Colts’ rushing attack — it has the second-fewest yards-per-carry — but, if the game flow goes in the direction of Indianapolis pulling away and leaning on the run game to wind some clock, it has an ideal matchup against a Bengals defense ranked third-worst in yards-per-carry.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Colts defense, and maybe Tyler Boyd
Fades: Everyone else on offense
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Based on the news around the Falcons, it is seeming unlikely this game gets played as originally scheduled, but we will pretend for now as if it will go on uninterrupted. While a coaching change creates a buzz around a team sometimes, the Falcons’ situation feels almost too dire for that. They have been terrible on defense, and their offense has been struggling of late as well. Despite their 1-4 record, the Vikings have played fairly well this season, and their defense has been improving in recent weeks as well. Should this game be played, expect a Vikings win in which they lead throughout, and the Falcons pile on some garbage time yards like we’re used to seeing.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Mike Boone, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson
Fades: Todd Gurley II
Must-Owns: Alexander Mattison
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of now, the game between the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons is still on as scheduled, but with caution. It’s a shame, too, because we can actually look for both offenses to do well against defenses that rank in the bottom-seven for yards allowed. If the game is played, I’ll lean on the passing attack of the Vikings — as usual, I love to roster Adam Thielen — but I think I might shy away from running back Alexander Mattison. He was an absolute monster in relief of Dalvin Cook after Cook left Week 5’s game with an injury, but Mattison’s price is high, which puts the pressure on him to over-deliver in order to justify using him in a lineup.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Matt Ryan, Todd Gurley, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Washington Football Team at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Sometimes when two terrible teams meet, we find ourselves overly intrigued by the game from a fantasy perspective — that is not the case with this matchup. The Giants quietly have a top-ten defense in the league in yards allowed, and considering how little help their offense has given them, that is extremely impressive. Washington is very similar in that their defense has been their only glimmer of hope while their offense sits last in the league in yards per game. You can make an argument for a few pieces within this game, but overall, the defenses for both teams are the only good plays
Targets: Antonio Gibson, Devonta Freeman, and Both Defenses
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: All year, I’ve written about how the defenses of the Washington Football Team and New York Giants are their only strengths. I can’t step away from this argument now because the two teams are slated to go against one another. Washington had 108 total yards of offense, last week — one hundred eight — and the Giants rank in the bottom-three for points, yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, rushing attempts, and first downs. We might be looking at a 0-0 tie on Sunday.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You’re probably sick of hearing this by now, but the Ravens offense has been legitimately mediocre all season long. Lamar Jackson has failed to throw for more than 205 yards in a game since Week 1, and I don’t care what game flows they’ve had, those are impossibly low numbers. The offense has scored well because the defense continues to put them in good positions, but overall, the fantasy production has been largely unappealing for the entire Ravens offense outside a couple good games from Jackson and Mark Andrews. The Eagles’ offense continues to be a turnover machine, and they simply do not move the ball well. This game likely sees some points, but the overall yardage and fantasy production figures to be largely disappointing all around.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and the Ravens’ Defense
Fades: Eagles Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing about how the Philadelphia Eagles will play better than what we’ve seen, but I have not been able to pinpoint exactly how or where the source of this “better play” can be found. Last week, there was great production from both running back Miles Sanders and wide receiver Travis Fulgham, and we now need to decide if they are worth their respective risks on Sunday. It’s hard to ignore either, especially with Fulgham not only seeing 13 targets, last week, but hauling in a whopping ten of them. The Baltimore Ravens are obviously worth a look, but their offense has been a major disappointment compared to what many expected. It’s quite possible that the defense leads the way for Baltimore.
Targets: Miles Sanders, Travis Fulgham, maybe Carson Wentz, and careful exposure to the Ravens’ offense
Fades: Too much offense
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Only in the year 2020 could we see a 4-1 Cleveland Browns team that has actually looked like a real football team. The fact that they are lining up against a 4-0 Steelers team makes this about as important of a game as you can have in Week 6. With that said, that does not mean it is automatically a great fantasy game to target. The strength of both of these offenses is running the ball, but the real strength of each team is their defenses. Given the importance of the game within this division, and the style each of these teams likes to play, this is a game that deserves marginal DFS ownership.
Targets: Kareem Hunt and James Conner
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In my picks column, I wrote about how uncomfortable I felt with the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, and it’s mainly because I can see the road for both offenses failing. I’m sure Chase Claypool will be a popular target after the rookie wide receiver exploded for 116 total yards and four touchdowns, and I can justify throwing him into a lineup because his usage is likely to be high. Still, I’m not sold on a high-scoring game elsewhere. I might also include Kareem Hunt who still won’t be challenged too much for carries, as well as catches a high number of passes out of the backfield.
Targets: Kareem Hunt, James Conner, and all of Pittsburgh’s wide receivers
Fades: Too much exposure to the offenses
Must-Owns: None, but Kareem Hunt is close
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There may be nothing more infuriating in this football season than the fact that this Bears team is 4-1 right now. Their offense has been painful to watch for basically the whole season which is made clear by the fact that they rank 27th in the league in yards of offense and points scored on offense. Their defense, and tremendous fortune, have gotten them a record they simply do not deserve. The Panthers, on the other hand, have been shockingly good this season on both sides of the ball. I had been very down on the Panthers at the start of the season, but they have been impressive all year and simply have looked like the much better team in this matchup.
Targets: Allen Robinson II, Robby Anderson and DJ Moore
Fades: The Rest of the Bears Offense
Must-Owns: Mike Davis
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this point, Carolina Panthers running back Mike Davis is basically a ‘must-own.’ He’s been incredible stepping into the role that was formerly filled by superstar Christian McCaffrey, and he’s helped the Panthers improve to 3-2. The reality is that the key pieces of the Panthers’ offense have all been excellent. The Chicago Bears’ defense has quietly improved to the point where it is now top-nine for both yards and points allowed, but Carolina’s offense has enough weapons to consider one. The Bears’ offense was somewhat stalled in last week’s efforts against the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay boasts one of the best defenses in the league. Carolina’s sits in the middle-of-the-pack and is allowing the second-most yards-per-rush. All told, we should see enough offense from this game to warrant some fantasy football targets.
Targets: Allen Robinson, Teddy Bridgewater, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson
Fades: Nick Foles
Must-Owns: Mike Davis
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is so hard to feel good about, because these are two football teams that are best described as a general disaster. They both show flashes of potential and have players that you want to root for, but every time you get your hopes up, these teams find a way to remind you that they are a mess. Besides the Jaguars rushing offense — which ranks ninth — these teams rank outside of the top 20 in net yards per pass attempt and rushing yards per attempt on offense and defense. Essentially, those stats just show these two teams are inefficient — and bad — at every important aspect of the game. There are so many viable options to target in this game, but there is no way to have any certainty how this game plays out.
Targets: Adrian Peterson, Kenny Golladay and Laviska Shenault Jr.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: James Robinson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: My goodness. In an honest moment, I know the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions will produce offense. I just don’t want it to be the source of my fantasy team’s scoring. I don’t want to follow this game. Sadly, it’s out of my control. The Lions are allowing the fourth-most points-per-game and fifth-most yards-per-game, while the Jaguars are allowing the third-most yards-per-game and most net-yards-per-pass-attempt. I’ll try to not overload my lineup from this game, but I can’t see myself avoiding it.
Targets: Everyone
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: James Robinson
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I am feeling a sense of déjà vu here, this is an almost entirely new game this week than what we were expecting last week. That is because of the return of both teams’ starting quarterbacks. Cam Newton’s return makes this offense far more likely to be productive, but they are still nearly impossible to pinpoint specific players. Drew Lock returning for the Broncos doesn’t make them a top target in this tough matchup, but it at least gives them a degree of credibility. Overall, this game isn’t entirely appealing, but some pieces are definitely playable.
Targets: Jerry Jeudy, Cam Newton, Damien Harris and James White
Fades: Drew Lock
Must-Owns: Philip Lindsay (Assuming Melvin Gordon is Inactive)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I just wrote about how difficult it will be to avoid the game between the Lions and Jaguars, and I have the exact opposite sentiment about the matchup between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. I want no part of this one. Indeed, both teams have some playmakers with the ability to be worth the investment, but both also prefer to lead with their defense. That either means the game is low-scoring because each defense is successful or we see a painfully low number of plays as each offense starts to milk the clock from the start. Regardless, I’m leaning on the defenses with the slight possibility of throwing in a running back from this matchup.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious direction that people are picking here is a Dolphins blowout. While it is easy to see why people feel that way, it feels tremendously wrong to continue expecting above average play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. He was at his very best last week, but expecting that once again doesn’t seem fair given what we know about Fitzpatrick throughout his entire career. That leads me to believe this game will be far closer than people are expecting, and the only reason I am not willing to fully predict a Jets victory is simply because they have been beyond terrible. With that said, I do expect this to be by far their closest game of the season.
Targets: Joe Flacco, La’Mical Perine, Jeff Smith, Myles Gaskin, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki
Fades: Dolphins Defense
Must-Owns: Jamison Crowder
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s blatantly obvious just-how-bad the game between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins could be, but it also has sneaky potential to be high-scoring. We expect the Jets will turn to quarterback Joe Flacco again, and he did throw the ball 33 times in his prior start for the team. There’s some intrigue there, especially if you’re targeting a big win for Miami. In either outcome — a close game or an easy victory for the Dolphins — Ryan Fitzpatrick and Miami’s offense should continually deliver. Fitzpatrick is a prime candidate for regression — in his past three seasons, he has followed up each win with either a loss or a decline in quarterback rating. In other words, he’s rarely outstanding in consecutive games.
Targets: Joe Flacco, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, and Myles Gaskin
Fades: Actually…none
Must-Owns: Jamison Crowder
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Many people are looking at this game like a surefire shootout, but that isn’t based on the reality of what this Buccaneers team is. The truth is that the strength of this Buccaneers team has been their defense and its ability to stop the run and get pressure on the quarterback. If the Bucs are able to keep this game close, it is more than likely because their defense continues to play at an elite level and manages to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers lethal offense. There is definitely still some fantasy appeal here, but I’m not expecting tons of points in this one.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Robert Tonyan, Ronald Jones II and Chris Godwin
Fades: Aaron Jones and Tom Brady
Must-Owns: Devante Adams
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Get your popcorn ready. As bad as the game between the Jets and Dolphins looks in the late afternoon timeslot, we might be set up for a classic battle in the matchup of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. The Green Bay Packers will be tasked with battling against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ second-ranked defense — in yards allowed — but I’m not doubting Rodgers at any point unless proven otherwise. The potential return of Davante Adams is also worth monitoring, as it could free up even more opportunities for running back Aaron Jones. The Buccaneers will also return serve, however, and all of their healthy targets are in-play.
Targets: Everyone
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Either Davante Adams or Aaron Jones
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Continuing my string of going against the grain, the 49ers will not go down again this week without a fight. The Rams have looked much better this year, and yes I saw what happened against the Dolphins last week, but the 49ers are too good of a team with too good of a coaching staff to put up another dud in a critical game this week. With the Rams elite defense, I’m not expecting an offensive outburst by the 49ers, but they will be close in this game throughout while likely leaning heavily on their run game.
Targets: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and George Kittle
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: Raheem Mostert
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For the amount of times that I have shouted about how overrated quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is, I’m not expecting another dud if he’s under center again for the San Francisco 49ers. In fact, I’m expecting a much better performance by the team, as a whole. This should result in a better defensive effort, where the Los Angeles Rams can be slowed to the point where their offensive players aren’t a no-doubt ‘home run’ in a Primetime or Showdown slate. Still, I find it hard to avoid the Rams’ offense completely, even though the 49ers’ defense can work in a small-slate tournament.
Targets: Cooper Kupp and San Francisco’s running backs and defense
Fades: Most of the other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week saw both of these offenses look their worst as they both struggled on their way to their first losses of the season. With that said, I believe what we saw last week is far more concerning for the Bills than the Chiefs. This Chiefs offense has a long history of being elite and performing against defenses of all levels. The Bills’ offense has been looking great, but they haven’t had a ton of tough competition early in the season, so it is hard to know how much we can trust them. That gets amplified by the fact that this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for and very well may make life hard on Josh Allen once again.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Josh Allen
Fades: Bills Defense and Devin Singletary
Must-Owns: Stefon Diggs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: What a gift. Two of the former best offenses in football each suffered big losses in Week 5 and now get to play a nationally-televised game the following week. I’m expecting a rebound from everyone, and it sets us up for a potentially high-scoring, back-and-forth battle. I remain unconvinced by quarterback Josh Allen, but his legs do carry enough value to make him worth a look on a regular basis.
Targets: Everyone from Kansas City, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and John Brown (if healthy)
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It seems fitting that the Cowboys are the final game of Week 6 seeing as they are arguably the major talking point across the entire NFL. Their offense was putting up historic numbers — granted it was largely out of desperation due to their horrendous defense — but they are now forced to go on with Andy Dalton at the helm. As crazy as it sounds, I don’t think this will be a major setback for the Cowboys. Andy Dalton is not your average backup quarterback, and if there is any offense in the league that someone can step into and be successful, it is this one with their talented offensive line, and elite talent at every playmaking position. Their defense will likely continue to struggle, but their offense should still be able to move the ball and keep them in games.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup
Fades: Cardinals Defense
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It will certainly be one of the most interesting games of the weekend, but I’m not so sure the matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys will live up to the fantasy hype. At this point, every team is an option against Dallas’ pitiful defense, and the Cardinals entered this season with high expectations for their offense. Still, this might be a little too ‘easy’ for a Primetime game in which the Cowboys know they must play better on defense. On the other side of the matchup, we have the Andy Dalton-led Cowboys’ offense against an Arizona defense ranked tenth-best in yards-per-game. Dallas clearly has the weapons to make noise, but again, the Primetime nature might lead us into a ‘trap.’
Targets: Either defense as a ‘contrarian’ play, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, and Arizona’s offense in moderation
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Probably DeAndre Hopkins