We wrote something similar in last year’s Week 1 DFS picks, but the amount of value plays found on Opening Day is incredible. If anything, this led us too many options.
Our solution is to aim for stacks wherever we can. Since we aren’t diving deep into the bargain bin to make most lineups possible, we can pair a quarterback with a receiver and build the rest of our lineup accordingly.
Based on our expected Week 1 DFS game flow analysis and Week 1 Games to Target published earlier, we can carry our thoughts into actual lineup positions. The long list of players that fit the requirements set forth by the projected flow of the game was cut dramatically by the requirements set forth by salaries.
Below are Sporfolio’s DFS Week 1 Plays:
Quarterback
Russell Wilson – We rarely need to introduce or explain Russell Wilson in this column, but Sunday has its positives and negatives for the quarterback. The two reasons to play Wilson are talent at a decent price and a possible pairing with a wide receiver – which we will address later in this article. The two considerations in possibly avoiding him are the possibilities of the game being so lopsided that Seattle scales back its passing attack and the desire the Seahawks have to run the ball – which, directly takes pass attempts out of Wilson’s hands. There is a chance that the game turns out to be high-scoring, regardless, and Wilson would obviously capitalize under such a scenario.
Cam Newton – If you have read any other articles on the site this week, it should come as no surprise that Cam Newton has made it onto this list. This is a prime opportunity to buy against one of the better teams in the league. Between the Super Bowl hangover potential, injury recoveries to key players, and the lack of preseason play, the Rams are vulnerable in Week 1. If the Panthers are to pull it off, they are going to need a good game from the quarterback. Some people may be down on Newton after last season, but it’s important to remember he battled through a shoulder injury for much of the year. With the injury behind him expect his arm and leg to be back to normal.
Kirk Cousins – We absolutely love one of the Vikings’ wide receivers, this week, which means that we have to, at least, like Kirk Cousins. The reality is that, unless Dalvin Cook dominates the offense – which is possible – Cousins should be in for a big day. The Vikings and Falcons set up for arguably the most competitive game of the afternoon and, in his second season with the team, Cousins should be much more comfortable with the offense.
Jameis Winston – It’s a little dangerous to universally accept one game as ‘high-scoring,’ but the matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers is certainly trending in that direction. Jameis Winston must be on your radar. Over the past few seasons, despite how ineffective he and his teams have been, the offense has thrived. That’s an easy comment to dismiss with the changing of a head coach because we can point to new philosophies. Except, that isn’t the case here. If anything, the Buccaneer just went in the direction of more offense. Winston might not end the weekend with the cleanest stat line of the quarterbacks, but he should absolutely have one of the higher volume days of the group.
Andy Dalton – No matter what the game flow is for the Seattle Seahawks, it will be almost impossible for the Cincinnati Bengals to not be throwing on Sunday. Even if the team jumps out to an early lead – which is unlikely – the Bengals will need to continually score to hold off the Seahawks. Remember that the team’s new head coach was formerly the wide receivers coach for the Los Angeles Rams. He should have a decent idea of how to find success through the air. It’s always been fashionable to bash Andy Dalton but, give his price and the game flow, he might be the perfect upside play on Sunday.