We have our first full, fifteen-game fantasy slate in months and, naturally, it yields a much longer column. With this many games, we also don’t aim to find an over-arching theme, as there are many storylines and matchups to target.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 13 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take: Any game involving the Ravens has been relatively straightforward for me all season long. Up until two weeks ago, the plan was to avoid completely because their defense is arguably the best in the league and their offense was far from dynamic. Since Lamar Jackson has taken over the starting role, the plan has changed slightly, but overall not that much. There is still little appeal in pick players against the Ravens, because their defense simply does not allow much offense. I would be willing to make an exception for Julio Jones because he is playing at a level far above any other receiver even if his touchdown production is limited. With that said, this is far from an ideal spot, and it may not be worth forcing him in this week. For the Ravens’ offense, Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards have shined in the past two weeks running the ball, but the passing game has been largely ineffective still. With the Falcons’ defense struggling against the run, and running backs specifically, all season, both Jackson and Edwards – assuming his ankle injury does not hold him back – are worthy of consideration.
Mario’s DFS Take: Following the first week of the season, questions arose as to whether-or-not Matt Ryan would remain a viable fantasy starting quarterback. Of course, we used this as an opportunity to buy low on Ryan, and we were not disappointed. Since then, he has either thrown multiple touchdowns or reached 300 passing yards in eight-of-the-following-ten games. Unfortunately, this might be the time to step away from Ryan, as he will face the league’s best defense in both yards and points allowed-per-game. Then again, he can provide nice value in a game in which a big performance will be needed in order to win. The Falcons’ defense is also a high risk-reward play, as I continue to argue that Baltimore’s offense is capped by Lamar Jackson. He also has three interceptions in two games despite only throwing the ball 44 times.