Even though we only have two teams on a bye, this week, the three games on Thanksgiving leave us with another light schedule for Sunday and Monday. If we are looking for patterns about the overall state of the games, this week sets up more similarly to Week 10 than Week 11. That is, we have more lopsided games than close ones and, with it, more areas from which to choose our best plays according to game flow.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take: This game is about as simple as could be – there is nobody outside of Leonard Fournette that I will be considering. The Bills are coming off of a bye week, and should have Josh Allen back under center, but even with him starting this season, this Bills’ offense has been far from dangerous, and last week was a big step in the right direction for this Jacksonville defense. I have no concern rolling them out this week. The Jaguars’ offense as a whole has struggled mightily and leaves a lot to be desired as well. With that said, since his return from injury, Fournette has returned to a huge role in the offense. In the past two games, Fournette has seen 29 and 30 touches, respectively. He has managed solid yardage, and 3 touchdowns with this touches, and figures to continue being the focal point of this offense. Any production the Jaguars have this week is likely to come from Fournette, and he is the only member of the offense you can play with any level of confidence.
Mario’s DFS Take: I am strangely excited for the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and it even includes the team’s offense. No, I won’t be using Blake Bortles in my fantasy lineup, but I am inspired by the usage of Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville’s most recent game. The talented running back carried the ball a whopping 28 times, and he was featured in every situation. Want to establish a lead? Hand the ball to Fourette. Want to milk-the-clock? Hand the ball to Fournette. Want to lose the game because of a ridiculous insistence that relentlessly running the football is still a viable road to success? Hand the ball to Fournette. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter to Fournette’s fantasy owners that his team blew the lead, as he was neither the reason for the failure nor expected to lose touches because of it. And, with a better matchup against a pitiful Bills squad, Fournette should shine, once again. As will the Jaguars’ defense.